Pensions Core Course Mark Dorfman The World Bank. March 7, 2014

Transcription

1 PENSION PATTERNS & REFORM CHALLENGES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Pensions Core Course Mark Dorfman The World Bank Slide 1

2 Organization 1. Design summary 2. Challenges 3. Design reform principles 4. A process for evaluation Slide 2

3 Label and Description 1. Near universal non-contributory pension + Civil Service scheme + prominent occupational schemes (coverage + benefit level) 2. Strong and near universal non-contributory pension + Civil Service scheme, First pillar w/modest target income replacement & Third Pillars (Modest coverage and benefits for select workers) 3. Civil service + limited & weakly regulated occupational schemes 4. Modest contributory partially funded definedbenefit scheme, civil service scheme & some occupational schemes (heterogeneous) 5. National non-contributory pension (Swaziland) & pilots (Kenya). Provident Funds, civil service + limited occupational schemes (modest coverage and benefits for select workers) I. Stylistic Design Typology Countries South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland Seychelles, Mauritius, Cape Verde Ethiopia (until 2011), Malawi (until 2011). Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, CAR, Chad, Congo Republic, Cote d Ivoire, DRC, Ethiopia (2012+), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, San Tome & Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Togo, Zambia, and Zimbabwe Uganda, Swaziland, Kenya, The Gambia 6. 2 nd Pillars or Hybrids & occupational schemes Nigeria, Ghana (after 2008), Malawi (2011) Slide 3

4 40.0% 35.0% I. Social Pensions 8 countries with national schemes, 4 pilot programs. 7 universal, 3 pensions tested & 3 means-tested Benefit levels between 10% and 35% of per capita GDP, (Botswana lower). Annual costs for mature schemes 0.3% - 1.8% of GDP Share % 1.80% 30.0% 25.0% Benefit % of GDP per capita Total Cost (% of GDP) - (RIGHT AXIS) 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 20.0% 1.00% 15.0% 0.80% 10.0% 0.60% 0.40% 5.0% 0.20% 0.0% Botswana Swaziland Mauritius Namibia Seychelles Cape Verde South Africa Lesotho 0.00% Slide 4

5 I. Social Pensions Country Share 60+ Benefit % of GDP per capita % of poverty line Age Targeting Total cost (% of GDP) Mature Schemes Namibia 5.6% 16% 240% 60 Universal 1.36% Seychelles 9.9% 22% 1138% 63 Universal n.a. Cape Verde 5.4% 22% 182% 60 Means-tested 0.40% South Africa 7.3% 25% 592% 60 Means-tested 1.14% Lesotho 7.0% 34% 156% 70 (men); 65 (w omen) 1.77% Pilot Schemes Zambia 4.8% 10% 37% 60 Universal no data Kenya 4.1% 25% 94% 65 Means-tested 0.02% Kenya 18% 67% 55 Universal no data Uganda Nigeria 3.8% 4.9% 26% 23% 72% 65 (60 in Karamoja 135% Region) 65 (residents of Ekiti State only) Universal Botswana 5.9% 4% 143% 65 Universal 0.33% Swaziland 5.3% 10% 114% 60 Pensionstested 0.60% Mauritius 11.6% 15% 491% 60 Universal 1.70% Pensionstested Pensionstested no data no data Slide 5

6 II. Challenges - Earnings-related schemes have largely failed 1. Coverage. Small fraction of covered workers & elderly 2. Fiscal pressure. Civil servant scheme maturation & some aging 3. Efficiency & weak reserve management yielded poor returns & incentives (augmented by administrative costs) 4. Alignment of designs to needs Slide 6

7 % of covered population 1. Poor coverage Tiny % of workers covered in 50 years (median 5.1% of working age pop): Earnings-based design ill-suited to rural/informal populations High target replacement rates & cont. rates Sign. elderly coverage only in 8 countries w/non-contributory schemes Share of population above legal retirement age in receipt of a pension (%) Active contributors to a pension scheme in the working-age population (%) Slide 7

8 1. Poor coverage Contributory schemes tend to benefit the most well-off workers while most are left uncovered Percent of benefits of old age contributory pensions by quintile of the welfare distribution Kenya Malawi Mauritius (%) Benefits held by 1st 20% (%) Benefits held by 2nd 20% (%) Benefits held by 3rd 20% (%) Benefits held by 4th 20% (%) Benefits held by 5th 20% Source: The World Bank, The Rise and the Risks of non-contributory pensions, draft mimeo, Slide 8

9 Coverage of Working Age Population (%) in part because of low & volatile non-wage incomes 20.0% Correlation between Working Age Coverage & Per Capita Income in Sub- Saharan Africa 18.0% Cape Verde 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Cameroon DRC Guinea Swaziland 10.0% Uganda Mauritania 8.0% Zambia Rep of Congo 6.0% Togo Ghana Nigeria 4.0% 2.0% Benin Burundi Chad Mozambique Sudan y = -1E-09x 2 + 2E-05x R² = % Source: World Bank database. Note: Data points are from late 2000s. GDP per Capita (late 2000s, US$) Slide 9

10 with populations largely rural and informal Rural pop. prominent but declining. Earnings-related schemes left out rural and informal sector populations. Slide 10

11 South Africa Mauritania Zimbabwe Liberia Rwanda Congo, Dem. Rep. Cameroon Central African Republic Gabon Cote d'ivoire Chad Mauritius Mali Kenya Sao Tome and Principe Swaziland Zambia Burundi Benin Cape Verde Madagascar Niger Burkina Faso Eritrea Togo Congo, Rep. Guinea Senegal Nigeria Sierra Leone Uganda Gambia, The Ethiopia Ghana Tanzania Seychelles Sudan Equatorial Guinea Contribution Rate (% of Covered Wage) and contribution rates relatively high for low income workers A Contribution Rates Additional Contribution Rate for Non-Old Age Social Security Employer Old Age/Disability/Survivorship Employee Old Age/Disability/Survivorship Slide 11

12 2. Compounding the inequity of support is an emerging fiscal sustainability issue, particularly in civil servant schemes Many pensions, especially for civil servants, starting to consume an increasing portion of government budgets, potentially crowding out other programs. Partly due to flawed parameters (contribution rates and benefit formulae) inconsistent w/long-run balances & partly worsening scheme demographics. Early stage in demographic transition, but covered workforce (esp. in civil servant schemes) older and aging more rapidly. Separate civil service & national schemes (except CV, Zambia, Ghana) segment labor markets Slide 12

13 Modestly worsening demographics Old-age dependency ratios Slide 13

14 and old-age dependency rates likely higher for covered populations Senegal: Projected National and Civil Service Population Age Distributions Senegal: Projected Dependency Ratios Slide 14

15 Ghana Togo Zimbabwe Central African Republic Cameroon Liberia Gabon Mauritania Congo, Rep. Cote d'ivoire Chad Sao Tome and Principe Ethiopia Niger Benin Burkina Faso Burundi Cape Verde Congo, Dem. Rep. Guinea Madagascar Rwanda Sierra Leone Tanzania Mali Equatorial Guinea Simulated Replacement Rate with target replacement rates too high to be sustained or affordable 90% Simulated Replacement Rates 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Slide 15

16 Net pension expenditures as % of GDP and unsustainable fiscal burdens over the medium-term Tanzania: Pension Financing Gaps 0.00% -0.05% -0.10% -0.15% -0.20% -0.25% Scenario 1 (pensions indexed to inflation) Projected Cash- Balance in the Mandatory National Social Security Scheme in Niger -0.30% -0.35% Scenario 2 (pensions are Not Indexed ) Slide 16

17 0.8% as well as growing costs of civil service schemes as covered populations age The Gambia: Projected Expenditures for the Public Service Pension Fund Uganda: Public Service Pension Fund Projected Baseline Pension Expenditure 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% -0.2% 0.5% -0.4% 0.4% -0.6% 0.3% -0.8% 0.2% 0.1% -1.0% 0.0% -1.2% price indexation no indexation Source: World Bank, Options for the Reform of the Public Service Pension Fund in Uganda, December Slide 17

18 Expenditure as a % of GDP 3.50 expenditures on national and civil service schemes are modest though increasing Pension Spending and Civil Service Pension Spending (% of GDP late 2000s) Total Spending Civil Service Expenditures Social Pensions Source: World Bank database. Slide 18

19 US$ percent and administrative costs further aggravating the fiscal threat Administrative Expense Indicators (US$ or % of Benefits/Expenditures) $400.0 $350.0 $300.0 $ % 180.0% 160.0% 140.0% 120.0% $ % $150.0 $100.0 $ % 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% $0.0 x x x x x x x 0.0% Botswana- POPE Namibia- GIPF Swaziland- PSPF South Africa- GEPF Uganda- NSSF Tanzania- PPF Burkina Faso-CNSS Ghana- SSNIT Kenya- NSSF Tanzania- GEPF Sierra Leone- NASSIT Rwanda- RSSB Kenya- CSPS Mauritius- MNPS Administrative Expense per Insurance Benefit- US$ - left axis Administrative Expense as % of Benefits percent right axis Administrative Expense as % of Revenues percent right axis Source: Oleksiy Sluchynsky, Defining, Measuring and Benchmarking Administrative Expenditures of Public Pension Programs. Draft, mimeo, Note: An x above the scheme indicates that the actual costs of operation are more than 5 times the predicted levels based on the averages observed for 100 pension and social security programs throughout the world. Slide 19

20 Age 4. Need for Parametric Modernization including the retirement age Retirement Age and Life Expectancy Life Expectancy at ret. age Retirement Age - Men Slide 20

21 Ghana Togo Zimbabwe Central African Republic Cameroon Liberia Gabon Mauritania Congo, Rep. Cote d'ivoire Chad Sao Tome and Principe Ethiopia Niger Benin Burkina Faso Burundi Cape Verde Congo, Dem. Rep. Guinea Madagascar Rwanda Sierra Leone Tanzania Mali Equatorial Guinea Simulated Replacement Rate 90% 80% More modest accrual rates from mandatory schemes Simulated replacement rates for full term workers 70% 60% 50% 40% Simulated Replacement Rates 30% 20% 10% 0% Slide 21

22 Liberia Equatorial Guinea Gambia, The Togo Sao Tome and Principe Seychelles Congo, Dem. Rep. Mali Cote d'ivoire Guinea Rwanda Zambia Benin Burundi Central African Republic Chad Sierra Leone Tanzania Madagascar Cape Verde Gabon Cameroon Ghana Niger Sudan Mauritania Congo, Rep. Years Required for Vesting Explicit indexation, reduced vesting periods (& minimums), lengthening of wage bases + valorization Indexation Vesting periods Central African Republic Cameroon Ethiopia Niger Guinea Equatorial Guinea Zimbabwe Gabon Chad Benin Cape Verde Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Tanzania Togo Mauritania Congo, Rep. Cote d'ivoire Burkina Faso Burundi Rwanda Mali Ghana Sao Tome and Principe Sierra Leone No explicit indexation No explicit indexation No explicit indexation No explicit indexation No explicit indexation No explicit indexation No explicit indexation Disretionary Disretionary Disretionary Disretionary Disretionary Disretionary Disretionary Price indexation Price indexation Price indexation Price indexation Price indexation Price indexation Price indexation Price indexation Wage indexation Wage indexation Wage indexation Slide 22

23 5. Need for Reconsideration of Social Pensions vs. Social Assistance Poverty Prevalence 0.250*** 0.200*** Households Overall Elderly Only Households Some Elderly 0.250*** 0.200*** Ind Overall Ind Elderly Ind Working Age Ind Youth 0.150*** 0.150*** 0.100*** 0.100*** 0.050*** 0.050*** 0.000*** Ghana Malawi Nigeria Rwanda 0.000*** Ghana Malawi Nigeria Rwanda Source: Bank estimates, Slide 23

24 5. Question of whether existing designs need to be reconsidered 1.Do mandatory wage-based schemes make sense for populations with much of the population without predictable wage incomes? 2.How does contributing for old-age fit with other SP priorities (eg. loss of income, health or other shocks)? 3.What are sensible principles for social assistance & social insurance design appropriate to needs, objectives & conditions in SSA? Slide 24

25 IV. Design Reform Principles (1) Modest benefit targets - Target a modest replacement rate cont. schemes (affordable & sustainable contribution rate) Designs for rural & informal populations. Design experimentation & sequencing (health insurance expansion, enhanced savings instruments, matching contributions, default options, consumer education; UID, data & payments infrastructure; SP systems). Modernize DB parameters - parametric reforms (retirement age, linear & sustainable accrual rate, cont. rate, wage base & valorization, indexation) w/transitions (take advantage of immature schemes & young populations to minimize impact on older cohorts) Harmonize & merge civil service & national schemes (w/occupational top-up as necessary - 28 sep., 7 integ, 2 only cs schemes) Build enabling conditions. Funded DC schemes require sufficient enabling conditions (fiscal, macro, supervision, financial market depth & breadth, legal & administrative infrastructure). Strengthen occupational & individual schemes as stepping stone to FDC. Slide 25

26 Cost (% of GDP) IV. Design Reform Principles (2) Social pensions Social pensions vs. social assistance. Link benefits & targeting to contributory benefits Establishment of infrastructure for public transfers - identification, targeting, record-keeping, disbursement Cost of social pensions to eliminate poverty gap amongst the elderly Women Men Source: Kakwani and Subbarao, Aging and March Poverty 7, 2014 in Africa and the Role of Social Pensions Slide 26

27 V. A Process to Consider Reform Evaluate full scope & sequencing of social protection measures for coverage expansion (health insurance, old-age, survivorship, CCTs) Map programs to satisfy institutional requirements & enabling conditions + consider systemic approach Project baselines of existing schemes & parametric reforms with actuarial modeling (PROST) Slide 27