SKAGEN Vekst Status as of 30-09-05
Why SKAGEN Vekst? Balanced portfolio adapted to Norwegian investors Better geographic spread than pure Norwegian fund Better industry balance than a Norwegian fund = =) lower risk than Oslo Stock Exchange Companies which are undervalued compared to values and earnings with good revaluation potential Never either Norway or abroad, always both thank you very much Foreign part of fund complements Norwegian companies: Type of companies not found on Oslo Stock Exchange Lower valued companies with higher quality than found on Oslo Stock Exchange ==) High risk adjusted return
Markets YTD 2005 in NOK Russia + 77 % Brazil + 55 % Hungary + 47 % Estonia + 47 % South-Korea + 46 % Turkey + 44 % SKAGEN Vekst + 40 % Norway (OSEBX) + 39 % Mexico + 39 % India + 39 % Emerging markets index + 35 % Austria + 36 % Canada + 33 % South-Africa + 28 % Poland + 28 % Denmark + 23 % China (Hong Kong) + 20 % Finland + 18 % Hong Kong + 17 % Singapore + 16 % Switzerland + 15 % France + 15 % World Index + 15 % Japan + 15 % Spain + 14 % Germany + 13 % England + 13 % Sweden + 12 % Netherlands + 11 % Thailand + 11 % USA (SP500) + 9 % Belgium + 9 % Italy + 8% USA (Nasdaq) + 7 % Indonesia + 5 % Taiwan + 3 % China (local) + 1/-2%
Market development to date 3rd Quarter in NOK Russia + 43 % Brazil + 34 % Poland + 26 % South-Africa + 25 % Turkey + 22 % Hugary + 29 % South-Korea + 20 % Mexico + 20 % India + 19 % SKAGEN Vekst + 18 % Emerging markets index + 18% Canada + 17 % Norway (OSEBX) + 16 % Japan + 15 % Estonia + 13 % Austria + 13 % China (local) + 11/+9 % Sweden + 10 % Spain + 10 % Finland + 10 % Switzerland + 9 % Germany + 9 % Hong Kong + 9 % France + 8 % Thailand + 8 % China (Hong Kong) + 8 % Denmark + 7 % Italy + 7 % World Index + 7 % Belgium + 6 % England + 6 % USA (Nasdaq) + 5 % USA (SP500) + 4 % Netherlands + 4 % Singapore + 4 % Taiwan - 6 % Indonesia - 9 %
Results as of 30/9 2005 YTD 2005: SKAGEN Vekst + 39,6% Oslo Stock Exchange Benchmark Index + 38,6% World Index (NOK) + 14,6% 3rd Quarter 2005 to date: SKAGEN Vekst + 18,2% Oslo Stock Exchange Benchmark Index + 15,8% World Index (NOK) + 7,1%
Results sub-portfolios as of 30/9 2005 in NOK YTD 2005: Norwegian part of SKAGEN Vekst + 50,2% Global part of SKAGEN Vekst + 40,5% Oslo Stock Exchange Benchmark Index + 38,6% World Index (NOK) + 14,6% Hittil i 3. kvartal 2005: Norwegian part of SKAGEN Vekst + 23,5% Global part of SKAGEN Vekst + 17,6% Oslo Stock Exchange Benchmark Index + 15,8% World Index (NOK) + 7,1% Gross portfolio returns (fees, currency gain/loss and net interest not included)
SKAGEN Vekst Relative development Norway/abroad 2005 PRESTASJONSMÅLING 25 20 15 PROSENT 10 5 0-5 -10 31.12.2004 12.01.2005 24.01.2005 03.02.2005 15.02.2005 25.02.2005 09.03.2005 21.03.2005 05.04.2005 15.04.2005 27.04.2005 10.05.2005 24.05.2005 03.06.2005 Relativ Performance Norge Periode 15.06.2005 27.06.2005 07.07.2005 19.07.2005 29.07.2005 Relativ Performance Utland 10.08.2005 22.08.2005 01.09.2005 13.09.2005 23.09.2005
SKAGEN Vekst Relative development Norway/abroad last 3 years PRESTASJONSMÅLING 180 130 PROSENT 80 30-20 30.09.2002 13.11.2002 03.01.2003 18.02.2003 03.04.2003 23.05.2003 10.07.2003 25.08.2003 08.10.2003 21.11.2003 12.01.2004 25.02.2004 14.04.2004 02.06.2004 Relativ Performance Norge Periode 16.07.2004 31.08.2004 14.10.2004 29.11.2004 13.01.2005 Relativ Performance Utland 28.02.2005 18.04.2005 06.06.2005 20.07.2005 02.09.2005
Contributors YTD 2005 SKAGEN Vekst Norsk Hydro 169 m Bonheur 109 m Stolt-Nielsen 96 m Samsung Electronics 93 m Petrobras 84 m Nutreco Holding 82 m Yara 78 m Ganger Rolf 73 m Wilh. Wilhelmsen 72 m CG Geophysique 64 m Norske Skog - 39 m Sun Microsystems - 8 m Kinnevik - 8 m Alcan - 5 m Natuzzi - 4 m United Comm. - 3 m Sum value added: + 2.528 m m = MNOK
Contributors to date 3rd Quarter 2005 SKAGEN Vekst Norsk Hydro 81 m Wilh. Wilhelmsen 61 m Bonheur 54 m Samsung Electronics 54 m Petrobras 46 m Stolt Nielsen 40 m Eletrobras 39 m Tomra 37 m Global IP Sound 36 m TGS Nopec 35 m Hannover Re - 8 m Kyocera - 6 m Hanjin Shipping - 4 m Pfizer - 4 m Crew Gold - 4 m Sum value added: + 1.373 m m = MNOK
Bought Fairmount Heavy Transport Thule Drilling (new) Eidesvik Offshore Seadrill Pride Intl BP Rederi AB Transatlantic Hyundai Heavy Industries Net changes > NOK 10 mill. Changes to date 3rd Quarter 2005 SKAGEN Vekst Sold Exploration Resources (out) TGS Nopec Bjørge Gruppen (out) Norske Skog Yara Crew Gold Exmar (out) Bucher Industries Rieber & Søn (out) Aberdeen Asset Management (out) Concordia Maritime (out) Catch Communication(out) Chr. Hansen Olav Thon
SKAGEN Vekst Largest holdings as of 30/9 2005 Norsk Hydro 5,5% Samsung Electronics (South-Korea) 3,4% Stolt Nielsen 3,2% Wilh. Wilhelmsen 2,7% Bonheur 2,7% Norske Skog 2,5% Nutreco (Netherlands) 2,4% Yara International 2,4% Solstad Offshore 2,2% Petrobras pref. (Brazil) 2,1% Cash 2,0% SUM top 10: 29,1 percent (down from 31,1 percent as of 31/12-04)
SKAGEN Vekst Pricing main holdings as of 30/9 2005 Price/book P/E 05e Price target Norsk Hydro (733) 2,0 11 750-800 Samsung Electronics pref.(454 ) 1,7 10 450-500 Stolt Nielsen (261,5) 2,2 12 270-300 Wilh. Wilhelmsen (229) 2,0 8 240-260 Bonheur (574) 1,4 10 700-750 Norske Skog (96,75) 0,8 35 120-130 Nutreco (36,6) 2,0 11 48-52 Yara International (118,25) 3,0 10 120-130 Solstad Offshore (99) 1,6 11 115-120 Petrobras pref. (63,75) 2,3 6 70-80 Average top 10 1,9 12,4 > 10%
Compared to book equity, Oslo industrials are above the historical average 320 Oslo Industrials vs. Price/Book band Includes all shares ex finance and shipping 320 160 P/B = 2.1 160 80 P/B = 1.5 80 40 40 20 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20 Source: EcoWin, First Securities
Oil price development last 16 years D e t e r f o r s k j e l l
Norsk Hydro share price has increased in line with estimates. Compared to earnings the share has not become more expensive
Attractive direct returns on Oslo Stock Exchange especially compared to interest rate level (source:first Sec.)
Compared to earnings, Oslo Stock Exchange is still valued lower than European and US shares 27,5 PE 12 Month Fwd Stoxx 600 vs S&P 500 27,5 25,0 25,0 22,5 22,5 20,0 S&P 500 20,0 PE 17,5 17,5 15,0 12,5 Stoxx 600 15,0 12,5 10,0 7,5 OSEBX 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 10,0 7,5 Source: EcoWin
However, if history repeats itself, there should not be any large Norwegian discount? 800 EPS development, OSEBX and S&P 500 Indexed, Local Currency, S&P operating, OSEBX recurring ex shipping/finance 400 OSEBX 200 S&P 500 100 50 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Source: EcoWin, First Securities
European shares are priced at a low level compared to return on bonds Stoxx 600 P/E 12 month forward vs Euro bond yield Bond yield on reverse scale 25,0 22,5 Bond yield 0,030 0,035 0,040 20,0 17,5 15,0 12,5 P/E 0,045 0,050 0,055 0,060 0,065 0,070 0,075 0,080 10,0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0,085 Source: EcoWin
Is the 10-year cycle repeating itself? (Source: First Sec.) 320 OSEBX/TOTX 80s, 90s and 00s 160 80s 00s 80 90s 40 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: EcoWin
Threats Increased inflation expectations ==) higher bond interest. Raw materials and freight price increases ==) increased inflation. High capacity utilisation in China ==) increased inflation. Tightening of China s monetary policy what about the currency? Increased real interest ==) higher bond interest. Increased risk premium (is at a low level especially in emerging markets). Slow down of economic upswing due to lower consumer demand in US. Margin pressure among several companies due to rising raw material costs. Higher energy prices (subdues global growth). Worse framework conditions for Norwegian businesses after General Election? Fear of tightening of US monetary policy (too high interest rate increases). USD going down the drain? Competition-distorting
Opportunities Better economic development than market s relatively low expectations Asia will continue to be driving force for global growth. New investment cycle within raw materials and energy many capacity ceilings have been reached. Strong likelihood of increase in prices where equity markets valuation of companies is lowest (Asia, Europe and South America). Liquidity driven equity market (low rate of return required). Institutional owners have small units of shares. Improvement in earnings in 2005. Increased activity within acquisitions/mergers. Moderate valuation of our portfolio companies.
Outlook 2005 Follows pattern of the 1980s and the 1990s first three years of turbulence, then strong reaction upwards, followed by a period where confidence in the share market slowly returns Higher uncertainty regarding economic outlook but possibilities for higher growth expectations throughout the year Still stimulus from China and emerging markets possible positive stimuli from Japan and Europe Slowing growth in the US gives improved global balances Moderate valuation of shares, low perception of risk and stable interest rate level forms basis of continued upwards revaluation throughout the year Corrections in the market spring 20005 resemble the corrections last year when interest expectations changed. After the correction last year strong economic expansion continued to be the topic this year it will be the revaluation of companies. Galloping energy prices now constitute a real risk to continuing economic growth. So far increasing base rates have been compensated for by falling bond rates.