THE JUTLAND ROUTE CORRIDOR FACTS AND FIGURES 4 th June 2014, Vejle 1
THE JUTLAND ROUTE CORRIDOR FACTS AND FIGURES 1 Introduction 2 The Corridor Area and its Geo-Strategic Framework 3 Demographic and Economic Potentials 4 Topics for Cross-Border Cooperation 2
1 INTRODUCTION The Jutland Route Corridor Large scale, cross-border area along the A7/E45 Nordjylland, Midtjylland, Syddanmark, Hamburg, Schleswig- Holstein; cities and municipalities Objective of the statistical analysis: Giving an overview on the Jutland Route Corridor in statistical figures Identifying general opportunities and challenges for the overall socio-economic development of the Jutland Route Corridor Next steps of the project and topics for discussion: Identitfying key potentials and strategic areas 3
2 THE CORRIDOR AREA The Jutland Corridor 470 km long peninsula 7.6 million people and 3.9 million jobs Economic centres Hamburg, Aarhus, Kiel, Odense, Aalborg, Flensburg, Lübeck, Neumünster, Norderstedt and Esbjerg Connected From south to north by E45/A7 From east to west by E20 By rail lines, ferries and airports Surrounding cities and regions Southern and Western Norway Gothenburg Region Zeeland and Copenhagen area South Sweden area Germany and Central Europe south of Hamburg 7.6 m inhabitants GDP: 285 b EUR 1.8 m inhabitants GDP: 94 b EUR 1.6 m inhabitants GDP: 62 b EUR 1.3 m inhabitants GDP: 43 b EUR 2.5 m inhabitants GDP: 114 b EUR 4 JUNE 4 TH 2014 PRESENTATION FIRST CONFERENCE 4
2 THE CORRIDOR AREA Growth centers and cities Aalborg area Aarhus area East Jutland Growth Area Esbjerg area Odense area Flensburg Area Grenzdreieck/ Grænsetrekanten Kiel area Nordgate Hamburg area 5
2 THE CORRIDOR AREA Cities and city regions 6
2 THE CORRIDOR AREA Distances Max 45 minutes by car between the cities 75 minutes to Norway 60 minutes to Sweden 7
2 THE CORRIDOR AREA Traffic volumes Travel time by car Travel time by train 8
3 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Population Growth 2007, 2013 and Forecast 2025 Growing population in the Corridor Area th. Population growth 2007 8,000 2013: +0.3 % 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Forecast: + 1.1 % until 2025 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Nordjylland Syddanmark Midtjylland Hamburg Sch.-H. Corridor Area 2007 2013 Forecast 2025 Sources: Danmarks Statistik (2014); Federal Statistical Office Germany and Statistical Offices of the Länder (2014); Statistical Office for Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein (2010/2011); Georg Consulting (2014). 40.2 percent of total population living in West Denmark, 37.0 percent in Schleswig-Holstein and 22.8 percent in Hamburg 4.3 million people at employable age Almost 100,000 people younger than 15 years Only decrease of employable population (15-64 years) by 3.1% until 2025 9
3 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Employment* at the Workplace 2012 GDP (million EUR) 2011 Schleswig- Holstein Nordjylland 21,850 Hamburg Midtjylland 48,905 Midtjylland Syddanmar k 45,849 Syddanmark Schleswig- Holstein 75,389 Nordjylland Hamburg 93,447 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 th. *i.e. number of employed persons excluding selfemployed and assisting spouses (for Germany: "SVP-Beschäftigte"; for Denmark: "Topledere" and "Lønmodtagere"). Sources: Danmarks Statistik (2014); Federal Statistical Office Germany and Statistical Offices of the Länder (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). Corridor Area: 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 mill. EUR Sources: Federal Statistical Office Germany and Statistical Offices of the Länder (2014); Danmarks Statistik (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). Corridor Area: 285.4 billion EUR 3.9 million jobs 3 million persons dependent employed Employment Growth 2007 2012: + 1.3 % GDP per capita: 37,253 Euro EU28 GDP per capita:25,100 Euro GDP Growth 2000 2011: +26.4 % EU28 GDP Growth 2000 2011: +37.5 % 10
3 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Socio-Economic Indicators of Chosen Cities in the Jutland Route Corridor Persons 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Population 2012/2013* Employed Persons 2011 Aarhus Kiel Lübeck Odense Aalborg Flensburg Neumünster Norderstedt Esbjerg * for Denmark: reference data 01/01/2013; for Germany: reference date 31/12/2012. ** i.e. "Erwerbstätige" for Germany, and Beskæftigede for Denamrk; for Denmark: "Topledere" and "Lønmodtagere"); for Danish cities: employment refers to superordinate municipalities ("kommuner"). Sources: Federal Statistical Office Germany and Statistical Offices of the Länder (2014); Danmarks Statistik (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). Hamburg is the biggest city of the corridor area (1.7 million); followed by Aarhus and Kiel nine cities have a population larger than 70,000 3 million people live in these cities (39.9 percent of the total population) 51.5 percent of total workplaces are located there 11
3 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Future trends: Demographic change Ongoing urbanisation Increasing share of services in production Decreasing employment in manufacturing Labour-intensive sectors are shrinking while knowledge-intensive industries expand Growing role of innovations for regional competitiveness The impact of these trends will strongly differ among the regions of the Jutland Route Corridor! 12
3 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Demographic developments Overall growing population: until 2025 + 1.1 % Spatial polarisation: increasing share of people living in the cities; migration as driving force Population forecasts until 2025: Aalborg: + 8.1 % Aarhus: +13.8 % Esbjerg: + 1.8 % Odense: + 6.2 % Flensburg + 3.2 % Kiel + 5.0 % Hamburg +2.8 % Lübeck: +2.5 % 13
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Overall: Decreasing share Structural Change Sectoral Shares in Total Economic Activity (GVA) 2011 Hamburg 84.9 15.0 of manufacturing in total production Increasing productivity Denmark Midtjylland Syddanmark Nordjylland 76.6 75.9 74.6 73.7 22.0 21.9 23.0 23.1 Still relatively high industrial shares in larger (rural) parts of the Corridor Schleswig- Holstein Germany 0 20 40 60 80 100 % 68.3 73.5 Services Industry and Construction Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Sources: Federal Statistical Office Germany and Statistical Offices of the Länder (2014); Danmarks Statistik (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). 24.8 30.8 Opens up potential for the service sector and regional functional share of labour 14
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Sectoral change and productivity enhancement strengthen the competitiveness of the companies in the Jutland Route Corridor Development (%) of Gross Value Added 2000-2011 Midtjylland Syddanmark Denmark Nordjylland Germany Hamburg Schleswig- Holstein 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Services Industry and Construction % Sources: Federal Statistical Office Germany and Statistical Offices of the Länder (2014); Danmarks Statistik (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). 15
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Structural Change Employment in Knowledge-Intensive Industries as % of Total Employment, 2008 and 2012 Germany 2012 Germany 2008 9.9 10.0 38.7 40.5 Hamburg 2012 6.9 49.8 Hamburg 2008 7.0 47.1 Midtjylland 2012 5.6 45.5 Midtjylland 2008 Sch.-H. 2012 Sch.-H. 2008 6.3 5.6 6.0 41.1 42.1 44.6 EU28 2011 EU28 2008 5.6 5.9 36.8 38.9 Syddanmark 2012 5.5 42.7 Syddanmark 2008 6.7 38.5 Denmark 2012 5.1 49.2 Denmark 2008 Nordjylland 2012 Nordjylland 2008 5.5 4.9 5.6 42.3 45.1 45.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 % Employment in High and Medium High-Technology Manufacturing Employment in Knowledge-Intensive Services Sources: Eurostat (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). 16
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Growth potential: advancing specialisation in knowledge-intensive sectors Crucial: innovation, knowledge and qualified labour Universities and research institutes complement innovative companies More than 200.000 students Flensburg: 8,689; Kiel: 32,068; Lübeck: 8,790; Hamburg: 89,704; Aalborg (Aalborg, Esbjerg, Copenhagen): 21,606; Aarhus: 43,600; Syddansk Universitet (Odense, Esbjerg, Kolding, Sønderborg, Slagelse): 26,034 Increasing numbers of first-year students Hamburg: + 9.3 % (2010-2020) Schleswig-Holstein: + 18.2 % (2010-2020) Also for Danish universities, increasing student numbers are expected 17
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Population aged 25-64 by Highest Educational Attainment, 2012 Danmark 34.8 43.1 22.1 Midtjylland 31.3 44.8 23.9 Hamburg 31.0 53.6 15.4 Nordjylland 29.4 46.1 24.5 Syddanmark 29.2 46.5 24.4 Germany 28.1 58.2 13.7 EU28 27.6 46.6 25.8 Schleswig-Holstein 24.8 62.5 12.7 0 20 40 60 80 100 % First and second stage of tertiary education (levels 5 and 6) Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education (levels 3 and 4) Pre-primary, primary and lower secondary education (levels 0-2) Sources: Eurostat (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). Share of people with tertiary education is increasing in the whole corridor area growing potential of highly qualified people as basis for knowledge-based development 18
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Regional Innovation Indicators Regional Innovation Scoreboard 2014 1 Total R&D Expenditure as % of GDP R&D Expenditure in the Business Sector as % of GDP Total R&D Personnel as % of Active Population Total R&D Personnel in the Business Sector as % of Active Population Employment in High and Medium High-Technology Manufacturing as % of Total Employment Employment in Knowledge- Intensive Services as % of Total Employment 2006 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 3 2012 3 EU28 - - 2.0 1.3 1.7 0.7 5.6 38.9 Denmark Innovation leader Innovation leader 3.0 2.0 2.9 1.6 5.1 49.2 Syddanmark Innovation follower Innovation follower 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 5.5 42.7 Midtjylland Innovation leader Innovation leader 2.7 1.7 2.8 1.2 5.6 45.5 Nordjylland Innovation follower Innovation leader 1.3 0.4 1.7 0.5 4.9 45.1 Germany Innovation leader Innovation leader 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.0 9.9 40.5 Hamburg Innovation follower Innovation leader 2.2 1.3 2.2 0.9 6.9 49.8 Schleswig-Holstein Innovation follower Innovation follower 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.4 5.6 44.6 1 rankings within four performance groups (innovation leader/innovation follower/moderate innovator/modest innovator) 2 European Patent Office 3 for EU28:2011 Sources: Eurostat (2014); Regional Innovation Scoreboard - European Union (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). Innovative potential and qualification level are increasing Widespread cross-border cooperation in research and development in the Jutland Route Corridor: potential of knowledge pooling 19
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Wind energy production and number of windmills 2013 Broad and manifold industrial basis Knowledge-based industries drive innovation and internationalisation E.g. high export ratio in manufacture of machinery Examples: Aviation industry; ship building; electrical industry; renewable energies 20
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Employment* in Manufacturing Industries 2013 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Pharmaceuticals Textiles and leather products Manufacture of chemicals Wood and paper products and printing Manufacture of funiture and other manufacturing Basic metals and fabricated metal products Manufacture of machinery Oil refinery etc. Electrical equipment Manufacture of electronic components Manufacture of plastic, glass and concrete Transport equipment Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Nordjylland Syddanmark Midtjylland Hamburg Schleswig-Holstein Corridor Area * for Germany: "SVP-Beschäftigte" (selvemployed and assisting spouses not included); for Denmark: "Beskæftigede" (includes selvemployed and assisting spouses). Sources: Statistics of the Federal Employment Office Germany (2014); Danmarks Statistik (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). 21
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Absolute number of employees in selected sectors in the Jutland Route Corridor Agricultural sector: 74 th. Total employment in manufacturing: 400 th. Manufacture of Machinery: 76 th. Manufacture of food products and beverages: 67 th. Basic metals and fabricated metal products: 50 th. Transportation and Storage: 177 th. (e.g. relatively high employment share in Hamburg, Neumünster; Sydjylland, Esbjerg) Manufacturing located in rural and urban regions; linkage to the transportation sector 22
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Growing service sector Human Health and Social work activities: 430 th. (e.g. relatively high employment share in Rendsburg-Eckernförde, Schleswig- Flensburg, Fyn, Nordjylland) Accommodation and Food Service: 112 th. (relatively high employment share e.g. in Plön, Nordfriesland, Schleswig- Flensburg, Fyn, Odense) Professional, Scientific and Technical activities: 182 th. (e.g. employment share in Aarhus 8,5 percent; in Hamburg 9 percent; 5 percent in Aalborg, Flensburg, Kiel, Odense) Art, Entertainment and Recreation: 42 th. (potentials for European Cultural Cities; Aarhus 2017) Strong tourism sector and human health activities also in rural areas; advancing specialisation of cities in (knowledge-based) services; importance of universities 23
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Concentration of jobs and population in cities ( hot spots ) engines of regional development Cities are highly specialised in the service sector Locational advantages for knowledge-intensive sectors Research institutes and universities are concentrated in cities Opportunities for companies regarding highly qualified workers and cooperation in research and development Cities are nodes of infrastructure Commuting increases 24
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Commuting Balances in the Danish Regions 2007 and 2012 Aarhus Odense Aalborg Kolding Esbjerg Billund Fredericia Ikast-Brande Viborg Herning Thisted Holstebro Ringkøbing-Skjern Frederikshavn Horsens Mariagerfjord Commuting Balance 2012 Commuting Balance 2007-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Sources: Danmarks Statistik (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). employees 25
3 ECONOMIC POTENTIALS Commuting Balances in the German Regions 2007 and 2012 Hamburg Kiel Lübeck Flensburg Neumünster Commuting Balance 2012 Commuting Balance 2007 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 employee Sources: Federal Statistical Office Germany and Statistical Offices of the Länder (2014); Georg Consulting (2014). 26
4 Topics for cross-border cooperation Different regional levels have to be considered regarding interregional cooperation: Large scale level Urban-rural aspects Cities ( Hot Spots ) Border regions Regions neighbouring the Jutland Route Corridor 27
4 Topics for cross-border cooperation Potentials of cross-border labour markets and trade Flexibility of labour markets; brain circulation; sharing (crosscultural) knowledge Research networks and cooperation between universities and companies also across the border Enhancing corridor wide research and development capacities and the knowledge base Supporting cross border cooperation in processes of innovation for realising a critical mass, pooling of knowledge and resources Stressing corridor-wide topicis 28
4 Topics for cross-border cooperation City networks Linking rural developments to the advanced knowledgeeconomies and dynamic structural change in cities; exploiting potential of functional share of labour Supporting locational factors for industries, especially in rural areas (cross-border solutions? industrial real estate; qualification of the workforce) Infrastructure as crucial factor for spatial functional division of labour: on the local, regional and macro-level Supporting national and international visibility of the whole area (by bundling capacities) Coordination of existing networks 29
Contact Kristian Bransager COWI A/S Visionsvej 53 DK 9000 Aalborg Phone: +45 2888 3840 krbr@cowi.dk www.cowi.com Dr. Silvia Stiller Georg Consulting Bei den Mühren 70 20457 Hamburg Phone: +49 40 637 078 21 stiller@georg-ic.de www.georg-ic.de 30