Community Colleges: Preparing America s Workforce in the 21 st Century Presented by: Dr. Jesus Jess Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College District
What s Changing? Demographics Nature of work Workplace Worker
Future Work By 2005, almost half of all workers will be employed in industries that produce or are intensive users of information technology. Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
Future Work (cont.) Baby boomers make up almost half (47%) of the workforce today. Young women are enrolling in college at a higher rate (70%) than young men (64%). Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
Future Work (cont.) Small businesses employ about half of the nation's private sector workforce. Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
Future Work (cont.) With more than 1600 corporate training institutions already established, Corporate Universities could surpass traditional universities, in number, by 2010. Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
75 Million Baby Boomers! (Born 1946 1965)
U.S. Population Projections 330,000,000 320,000,000 310,000,000 300,000,000 290,000,000 280,000,000 270,000,000 260,000,000 250,000,000 2001 2005 2010 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Population Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Projected U.S. Population - Age 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 Mean Median 2001 2005 2010 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Geographic Distribution Persons 65+ 52% live in nine states: California 3.6 million Florida 2.8 million New York 2.4 million Texas 2.1 million Pennsylvania 1.9 million Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey each with over 1 million. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Geographic Distribution Persons 65+ (cont.) Metropolitan areas 77.5% Suburbs 50.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Regional Changes 2025 Total Population South and West will comprise majority of growth Northeast 17.1% Midwest 20.7% West 26% South 36.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Projected U.S. Population by Ethnicity 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 % Change from 2001 2005 2010 2020 Caucasian Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian Source: U.S. Census Bureau
% Change Ethnic Groups to 2025 Caucasian Slowest Growing, still largest Hispanic 2 nd Fastest Growing, Southwest Black 2 nd Slowest Growing, all regions Asian Fastest Growing, all regions American Indian 3 rd fastest growing Source: U.S. Census Bureau
The Pipeline Challenge America will face a social and economic crisis unless it succeeds in promoting and taking advantage of racial and ethnic diversity. Business Higher Education Forum - Investing in People: Developing All of America s Talent on Campus and in the Workplace.
Employment Trends Growth in Civilian Workforce: 1990-2000 = +17% 2000-2010 = +15% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Observations Largest shift will be decrease of prime-age (25-54) workers in the labor force. Over 60% of workers do not have children at home but care for elderly family members. Shift from defined-benefit to definedcontribution pensions has unknown impact. Various organizational responses to technology impact productivity. Source: The Urban Institute
More Observations During 1992-99 expansion, college-educated workers accounted for 90% of growth. Globalization of production has weakened the position of U.S. workers. Although 1992-99 expansion increased job opportunities, many less educated workers have not reentered the job market. Source: The Urban Institute
More Observations (cont.) In the next 20 years... The civilian labor force will see a major change in age cohorts. Men 16 and over will continue to decline in numbers and percentage. Minorities and women will continue to increase dramatically in the civilian workforce. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Projected U.S. Workforce Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Occupations by Replacement Need Created by Retirees 1998 2008 (in thousands) Total, all employees 22,205 Secretaries.... 519 Truck drivers, heavy..... 425 Teachers, elementary school..... 418 Janitors and cleaners..... 408 Teachers, secondary school....378 Registered nurses...... 331 Bookkeepers, accounting and auditing clerks. 330 Teachers, college and university...... 195 Source: Monthly Labor Review
Source: Monthly Labor Review Replacements Needed for Retirees (cont.) Administrators, education and related fields.. 178 Farmers, except horticultural..... 175 Supervisors, construction occupations..... 165 Administrators and officials,... 143 Real estate sales occupations..... 144 Insurance sales occupations..... 135 Industrial machinery repairers..... 125 Maids and housekeeping cleaners...... 122 Private household cleaners and servants.... 112 Physicians..... 108 Financial managers...... 102 Lawyers.99
Industry Employment 2000-2010 Service Sector Continues to dominate growth adding 20.5 million jobs (+19%). Manufacturing down by 3%. Health, Business, Human Services, Engineering, Management and related services account for 1 of every 2 non-farm jobs. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupational Employment 2000-2010 Professional and related occupations will add 7% and 5.1%, respectively. Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15%. Office admin support will grow more slowly. 8-10 fastest growing occupations are computer related. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fastest Growing Occupations, 2000 2010 (National) Computer Software Engineer +100% Computer Support Specialist + 97% Medical Assistants + 57% Soc. & Human Serv. Asst. + 54% Physician Asst. + 53% Home Health Aide + 47% Veterinary Asst. + 40% Dental Asst. + 37% Source: Monthly Labor Review
New Workforce Skills Highly Skilled and Unskilled Jobs as a % of the Workforce 16% 14% 12.5% 14.1% 15.6% 14.2% 13.2% 12.7% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 1988 1998 2008 2% 0% Professional specialties (skilled) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Operators, laborers and fabricators (unskilled)
Declining Job Tenure 5.00 Median Years of Job Tenure 4.75 Years 4.50 4.25 4.00 1996 vs 2000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Workplace Individual Rigid Company Focused Non-Responsive Insensitive to Diversity Coordinated Flexible Customer Focused Responsive Sensitive to Diversity Other?
The 21 st Century Worker Skills Needed: Academic (standard) Technical (standard) Social new International/Intercultural new
Implications for Workforce Education/Training Labor shortage of skilled workers Higher levels of education will be necessary to secure new, higher-paying jobs 80% of jobs will require more post-secondary education No easy answer whether supply of qualified workers will meet demand in key industry sectors
Path to the American Dream % of High School Graduates Attending College 1979-97 and projected to 2010 80% 71% 75% Percent Attending 70% 60% 50% 54% 58% 59.6% 67% 66% 40% 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business
Education Required Projected Supply and Demand of Workers with some Postsecondary Education Demand (Jobs) Supply (Workers) Thousands 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 1998 2008 2018 2028 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau, U.S. Census and National Alliance of Business
Tidal Wave II Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Postsecondary Education, 1995 and 2015 (in millions) 17 Enrollment in millions 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 13.4 Million 2.6 Million 80% Minority 31% 35 and older 16 Million 9 8 1995 2015 Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Richard A. Fry. Crossing the Great Divide. Educational Testing Services, 2000.
National Perspective Projected Postsecondary Enrollment Distribution by Institution, 1975 to 2015 70% 60% 58.1% 56.5% 55.8% 50% 40% 30% 1975 1997 2015 38.1% 35.5% 39.5% 20% 10% 6.4% 5.3%4.7% 0% Private university Other four-year Two-year Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business
Associate Degree Desired 35% % Growth in Occupations (1998 to 2008) by Type* of Training Required 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Doctoral degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Associate degree Postsecondary vocational training Long-term onthe-job training Short-term onthe-job training * Does not include all types of training
Source: U.S. Dept. of Education Students Readiness for College Among families with incomes greater than $75,000 per year, < 60% of HS graduates were highly qualified for admission to 4-yr colleges. For families under $25,000 per year, 47% were not even minimally qualified. 63% of community college students take at least one remedial course.
Preparing a 21 st Century Workforce : Everyone s Involved Providers: K-16 (includes public and private 2 & 4 year colleges) Private vocational schools, consultants Industry, businesses and labor unions Need for continuous education and training as workplace demands change.
Fundamental Changes Training for new economy credentials Vendor provided credentials Vendor driven curriculum Rapid changes in job expertise More than 300 discrete certifications Over 2.4 million IT certifications awarded Most training providers outside traditional higher education and on and on
Opportunities for Community Colleges Increasing Demand for skilled workers Shortage of prepared workers Job demand for post-secondary education Productivity based on skills Higher educational attainment Enrollment in post-secondary institutions Decreasing job tenure
More Opportunities for Community Colleges Increasing Education level of the workforce Enrollment in community colleges Diversity of community colleges Need for financial assistance Anywhere & Anytime Learning: (flexible & responsive) Competencies vs. completions Employer relationships Increasing government recognition.
So, What Now Coach? Local Response Local Impact Regional Response Regional Impact National Response National Impact
So, What Now Coach? We accept the challenges We take advantage of the opportunities We plan toward our future We will make a difference We will lead America into the 21 st Century!
You are all Community College Super Heroes - Everyday! We are our nation s greatest weapon against economic down turn and stagnation. We build individuals, we build community, we impact the quality of life throughout our nation.
Thank You! Dr. Jesus Jess Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College District jcarreon@dcccd.edu
Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data AARP - http://www.aarp.org/ America s Career InfoNet - http://www.acinet.org/acinet/default.asp?soccode=& stfips= America s Job Bank - dni.us - http://www.ajb. / Bureau of Labor Statistics - http://www.bls.gov/ Hudson Institute - http://www.hudson.org/
Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data (cont.) Monthly Labor Review - http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm National Alliance of Business - http://www.nab.com/ National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov/ National Governors Association - http://www.nga.org/ National Institute on Aging - http://www.nia.nih.gov/
Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data (cont.) Urban Institute - http://www.urban.org/ U.S. Administration on Aging - http://www.aoa.gov/ U.S. Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/ U.S. Department of Labor - http://www.dol.gov/