The adjustment of the Spanish Real Estate Sector May 2011
Although struck by the crisis, Spain is a solid economy, showing signs of recovery
Spain resumes an upward trend In the closing months of 2010, the Spanish economy came back on track for recovery, with a q-o-q GDP increase of 0.2%, that sums up for a y-o-y increase of 0.6 %. Year on year Variation SPAIN EMU Quarter on quarter Variation SPAIN EMU Source: Central European Bank, Statistics National Institue, and Bank of Spain
Sustained growth path for the future Excluding construction, the demand is recovering: Private consumption grew in 2010 at an average of 1.2% (from -4.3% in 2009), investment in equipment grew on average 1.8% (from -24.8% in 2009), and external demand rose up to 1.1%. GDP forecasts confirm a positive evolution, in line with other European economies. GDP volume measures excluding construction Q-o-q growth rates Source: Eurostat GDP Forecasts 2011 OECD EC IMF Spain 0,9 0.8 0,8 Italy 1,3 1.1 1 France 1,6 1.6 1,6 Germany 2,5 2.2 2,2 Euro area 1,7 1.5 1,5 2012 OECD EC IMF Spain 1,8 1.7 1,6 Italy 2,0 1.4 1,3 France 2,0 1.8 1,8 Germany 2,2 2.0 2 Euro area 2,0 1.8 1,7 Source: IMF, OECD, European Comission
Strengths and political steps Economic strengths and reforms lay the foundations of a sound and rebalanced growth for the Spanish economy.
Infrastructures: Quality: Competitiveness Spain has the biggest highway net in Europe and is the first European country and second in the world, behind China, in high speed railway line miles 47 airports in which 250 airlines operate First european country with the highest standard of living for expatriates 2nd most valued health system in europe (HSBC Expat Explorer Survey) Performance: 2nd tourist destination in the world by revenue and 3rd for passenger arrivals Business leadership
The Spanish housing sector: facts and features
Germany Denmark France Finland United States United Kingdom Ireland Portugal Belgium Italy Spain Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France Belgium Austria UK Housing sector in Spain: main features High proportion of ownership 85% vs. rent 13%. Market duality: main residence 67% vs. vacational housing 33% Homeownership rate (%) Population by tenure status 2009 (%) Empty or secondary housing (per 1.000 hab) Empty or secondary housing (per 1.000 hab) 180 160 140 120 100 80 Source: Global Financial Stability Report IMF April 2011 Source: Eurostat 2009 60 40 20 Source: Eurostat 2004 0 Germany Denmark France Greece Holand Italy Portugal UK SPAIN EU Average
Housing sector in Spain: main features Preference for real estate assets: 80% of total assets. Social housing ratio below EU average : 11% vs 16% Fixed income securities 0,2% Investment funds 0,8% Private shares 0,9% Listed stocks; 1,0% Pension plans 2,0% Value distribution of total household assets Other 0,7% Main residence; 54,7% Proportion of social housing 2008 Proportion of social housing 2008 Social housing 11% Bank accounts; 5,3% Jewels, works of art, antiques 0,4% Freelance bussinesses; business 9,2% Other real estate assets; 24,8% Free market housing 89% Source: Bank of Spain, Familiy Finance Survey 2008 Source: Ministry of Public Works
Economic literature available estimates a range of overvaluation degree between 13% to 30% Following IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2008), the growth of house prices in Spain showed a lower overvaluation component than in other countries, and was largely based on fundamentals: Demographic and socioeconomic factors (immigration, household formation) Permanent real interest rate reduction effect, implying a permanent increase in asset valuations 35,0% 32,1% House price gaps (IMF 2008) House price gaps IMF (2008), Price overvaluation Studies estimating the price overvaluation in the Spanish housing market 29,2% 30,0% 28,0% 25,0% 21,8% 20,0% 17,0% 16,2% 15,0% 11,8% 10,0% 5,0% 1,7% 0,0% Ireland Netherlands UK France SPAIN Sweden Italy Germany Source: IMF Author and year Year of Estimated estimation overvaluation BBVA - Balmaseda et al. (2002) 2002 28% Bank of Spain - Ayuso and Restoy (2003) 2002 20% Bank of Spain - Martínez-Pagés and Maza (2003) 2002 8-17% IMF (2004) 2003 20% IMF (2005) 2004 20-30% OECD (2005) 2004 13% ECB (2006) 2004 30% Ayuso and Restoy (2006) 2004 29% IMF (2008) 2007 20% FEDEA - Sosvilla (2008) 2007 7-15% Source: OECD Economic Surveys: Spain 2010
The housing sector has already got through most part of the adjustment
Construction activity shows a correction phase Construction activity is still in the process of downward adjustment. At the end of 2010 residential investment reached a 45% cumulative decrease from its maximum. Relative size of the construction sector (Employment over total employment and residential investment over GDP) 14% 13,6% 12% 10% 9,5% 9,2% 9,3% 8% 6% 4% 2% 4,7% 4,7% 0% 1997 2007 2010 Residential investment Employment Source: Statistics National Institute INE
Price adjustment Housing prices have fallen over 15.4% from its maximum in the 1st Q 2008, and over 20% in real terms. Rent to housing prices ratio shows narrow margin for additional adjustment (3% to 7%) Housing price variation (Base 1995) Rent to housing prices ratio 2500 /m 2 500 Ratio of rent to housing prices 2000 400 1500 300 1000 200 500 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Housing / Rent Average 1997-2010 Source: Ministry of Public Works Source: Ministry of Public Works and Ministry of Economy and Finance
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 International comparison: deeper adjustment in Spain House prices rose less in Spain than in other countries, but the difference in the decrease from the peaks reached is smaller. Thus, comparatively, the degree of the adjustment in Spain is being harder than in other countries. New housing price variation (Base 1996) 420 365 310 255 200 145 90 UK Ireland Spain Source:ESRI, Ministry of Public Works and Department for Communities and Local Government.
Price adjustment: regional analysis The national average may not be noteworthy, as housing market requires regional analysis - 16,3% - 16,9% Housing price decrease per province 1st Q 2008 1st Q2011-16,7% - 15% - 16% - 17% - 15,7% - 19,2% - 18% - 21,9% - 19% - 21,5% -17,5% - 22,3% - 18,4% - 16,7% - 16% - 15,7% - 21,6% - 21,1% - 19,2% > -20% -15% - -20% - 15,4% - 22,2% - 19,6% - 15,2% - 19,7% Source: Ministry of Public Works
Provinces where price drop from the peak is above the average Price adjustment: new housing (1st Q 2008 4th Q 2010) Price adjustment: second-hand housing (1st Q 2008 4th Q 2010) -16% -16.3% -20.3% -15.3% -16.8% -16.3% -19.6% -20% -20,99% -17,2% -20.2% -15,7% -19.6% -18% -22,4% -17.6% -16.5% -15% -17.2% -15.2% -18% -16% -20% -16% -17.5% -15% -25% -15% -16.6% -15.4% -19.5% -18% -16.4% -16% -21.2% -19.3% -18% -16% -16.2% -21.5% -20.2% -15.7% -24.5% -18% -15.6% -21.3% -18% -17.2% -19%
Municipalities over 25,000 hab. with higher new housing price drop National average: -25% Mediterranean coast provinces: -26% Castellón de la Plana -37.8% Denia -29.8% Calpe -49.1% Villajoyosa -32.4% Ciutadella de Menorca -49.1% Eivissa -29.4% Chiclana -28% La Línea de la Concepción -34.1% San Roque -41.1% Marbella -40.1% Estepona -35.3% Torremolinos -28.3% Benalmádena -32.8% Fuengirola -29.2% Torrevieja -30.9% Mazarrón -33.1% Adeje -28.5% Puerto del rosario -28.9%
Housing market tends to stabilization The number of housing transactions (491,000) tends to recovery, partly due to fiscal incentives, partly because affordability indicators are once again at historically low levels. Foreign demand is starting to react to price signals: 20% aquisition by expats resident in Spain in 2010. 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% % y-o-y Y-o-y housing transactions variation (% 2004-2010 Base 1996) 6,3% 5,9% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5,9% 60 55 50 45 Affordability indicator (% of disposable income) -10,0% -15,0% -20,0% -25,0% -30,0% -12,4% -32,6% -17,8% 40 35 30 25 20-35,0% Source: Ministry of Public Works Source: Bank of Spain
% Stock reduction Stock of unsold houses has started shrinking in 2010 Net stock and stock variation Stock reduction path Net stock %Y-o-y variation 800 700 600 89,8% 100 90 80 700.000 70 500 51,3% 48,3% 400 688,044 687,454 40,1% 300 613,512 12,1% 200 413,642 273,363 100-0,09% 195,184 102,825 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Ministry of Public Works 60 600.000 50 500.000 40 400.000 30 300.000 20 200.000 10 100.000 0 0-10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Started housing construction Finished housing construction
Housing Stock: regional distribution % stock / number of total houses % stock / total stock 2.5% 1.9% 2.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 4,7% 2.3% 2.6% 5.7% 1.7% 6,2% 0.4% 1.8% 0.7% 1.3% 0,77% 2.6% 15% 1,7% 7,4% 0.5% 4.3% 4.1% 2.8% 0.5% 7.8% 19.3% 2.4% 2.5% 3.7% 16.3% 4.3% > 4 3-4 2-3 < 2 3.8% >10% 5-10% 0-5% 5.9% Source: Ministry of Public Works
Investing in spanish real estate sector is safe
Strong legal and institutional framework Public Cadastre Examination of the physical and legal condition of the house Contract Public deed Public Land Registration Office Urban Information Service
Legal security Additional measures to consolidate legal security: Compulsory town planning information provided by the Public Land Registration Office Public access to property information in English language through UK embassy in Spain Creation of the figure of the Town Planning and Environment Public Prosecutor Creation of specific police departments against urban development delinquency Land Use Act to fight against urban development corruption Penal Code reform to prosecute urban development corruption
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