September 16, 2015 Process Mining The influence of big data (and the internet of things) on the supply chain Wil van der Aalst www.vdaalst.com @wvdaalst www.processmining.org
http://www.engineersjournal.ie/factory-of-thefuture-will-see-merging-of-virtual-and-real-worlds/ My personal view: 1. Unprecedented amounts of data about machines, products, people, organizations, 2. The ability to analyze such data (scale, types of analysis, visualization, )
My personal view: 1. Unprecedented amounts of data about machines, products, people, organizations, 2. The ability to analyze such data (scale, types of analysis, visualization, ) Supply Chain 4.0?
1) Data: Internet of Events Internet of Content Internet of People Internet of Things Internet of Places Big Data social cloud mobility Internet of Events
2) Data Science: Generating value from data statistics data mining machine learning process mining stochastics databases algorithms data science large scale distributed computing industrial engineering visualization visual analytics behavioral/ social sciences privacy domain knowledge Spectacular progress in: Analytics (various types of mining) Databases (NoSQL, In-Memory) Distribution (MapReduce, Hadoop) New discipline that is here to stay!
A new discipline mathematics
A new discipline mathematics
data science A new discipline mathematics computer science
DSC/e: Competences and Research Programs 28 groups involved systems Enabling technologies: How to get the data and deal with computational/ [RP7] Smart Grids: infrastructural challenges Data (big Intensive data Infrastructures and hard questions)? Internet of Things infrastructures Large-Scale Distributed Systems Data-Intensive Algorithms Analysis: How to turn data into real value (models, answers/decisions, and visualizations/insights)? people Probability and Statistics [RP4] Quantified Self: Improving Performance and Well-Being [RP3] Smart Maintenance & Diagnostics: Safeguarding Availability Data Mining [RP2] Customer Journey: Correlating Events to Learn and Influence Customer Behavior Stochastic Networks Process Mining [RP1] Process Analytics: Improving Service While Cutting Costs Visualization [RP5] Data Value and Privacy: Economic and Legal Aspects of Data Science [RP6] Smart Cities: Ensuring Safety and Convenience for Citizens cities organizations [RP1] Process Analytics: Improving Service While Cutting Costs [RP2] Customer Journey: Correlating Events to Learn and Influence Customer Behavior [RP3] Smart Maintenance & Diagnostics: Safeguarding Availability [RP4] Quantified Self: Improving Performance and Well-Being Context: Why are we using data science, does it have the intended effect, and will people accept it? Human and Social Analytics [RP5] Data Value and Privacy: Economic and Legal Aspects of Data Science Privacy, Security, Ethics, and Governance Data-Driven Operations Management [RP6] Smart Cities: Ensuring Safety and Convenience for Citizens Data-Driven Innovation and Business [RP7] Smart Grids: Data Intensive Infrastructures
Data Science Flagship (Philips & DSC/e) 4 Strategic topics 4 TU/e departments 16 PhD students 30 Data science specialists 1. Data Driven Value Propositions 2. Healthcare Smart Maintenance 3. Optimizing Healthcare Workflows 4. Continuous Personal Health
Data Science University in Den Bosch
Process Mining: On the interface between process science and data science
As generic as a spreadsheet
Spreadsheet: Killer App for early computers VisiCalc (killer app for Apple II, Oct. 1979) Lotus 1-2-3 (killer app for IBM PC 1983) Microsoft Excel (1985)
Spreadsheet: Static data
Spreadsheet: Static data fact derived
Spreadsheet: Static data total value 31 items sold distribution average
Spreadsheet: Static data How to analyze operational processes?
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior row = event case identifier activity name resource timestamp Input: events ( things that have happened ) Mandatory per event: case identifier activity name timestamp/date Optional resource transaction type costs
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior 208 cases 5987 events 74 activities
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior batching for activities opstellen eindnota and archiveren
Loesje van der Aalst desire line Process Discovery
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior process discovery NO modeling needed!
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior 74 act. process discovery NO modeling needed! 11 act. 3 act.
process model event data Conformance Checking
desire line very safe system Conformance Checking
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior conformance checking? discovered or hand-made
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior conformance checking fitness of 93.5%
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior conformance checking final inspection is skipped 40 times
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior move on model (something should have happened, but did not) conformance checking move on log (something happened that should not happen)
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior NO modeling needed! performance analysis average flowtime is 1.92 months bottleneck
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior waiting time of 15.74 days performance analysis NO modeling needed!
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior animating reality real cases NO modeling needed!
Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior 16 cases are queueing animating reality
Process Mining: The missing link Process-centric and data-centric! process model analysis (simulation, verification, optimization, gaming, etc.) To answer conformance and performance questions! Offline and online. Multiple perspectives: control-flow resources time data performanceoriented questions, problems and solutions process mining data-oriented analysis (data mining, machine learning, business intelligence) complianceoriented questions, problems and solutions
Replaying history
Replay a c d e g get support from local manager (b) register travel request (a) get detailed motivation letter (c) decide (e) accept request (g) start check budget by finance (d) reject request (h) end reinitiate request (f)
Replay a c get support from local manager (b) e g? check budget (d) is missing! register travel request (a) get detailed motivation letter (c) decide (e) accept request (g) start check budget by finance (d) reject request (h) end reinitiate request (f)
Replay a c h d e g get support from local manager (b)? reject request (h) is impossible register travel request (a) get detailed motivation letter (c) decide (e) accept request (g) start check budget by finance (d) reject request (h) end reinitiate request (f)
Replay with timestamps a 9.15 c 9.20 d 9.35 e 10.15 g 11.30 start 9.15 register travel request (a) get support from local manager (b) 9.20 5 55 get detailed motivation letter (c) check budget by finance (d) 20 40 9.35 reinitiate request (f) 10.15 decide (e) 75 11.30 accept request (g) reject request (h) end
Replay with timestamps start register travel request (a) 20 get support 45 from local 15 20 manager (b) 45 15 20 60 5 55 60 get detailed 155 motivation 55 45 5 60 letter (c) 20 20 55 40 45 check budget 20 20 by finance (d) 40 45 20 25 55 reinitiate request (f) 25 55 45 20 25 40 55 decide (e) 65 75 65 50 75 50 75 50 65 accept request (g) reject request (h) end
Deviations Where? Why? time costs
Supply Chain / Industry 4.0 SAP process mining projects (cf. ProcessGold, Celonis, etc.) EDImine project (http://edimine.ec.tuwien.ac.at/) CORE (Consistently Optimized Resilient Secure Global Supply Chains) project (http://www.coreproject.eu/) Looking for interesting supply chain applications (data first)
How to get started? Event Data Process Mining Tools Data Science Mindset
Starting point for process mining: Event data student name course name exam date mark Peter Jones Business Information systems 16-1-2014 8 Sandy Scott Business Information systems 16-1-2014 5 Bridget White Business Information systems 16-1-2014 9 John Anderson Business Information systems 16-1-2014 8 Sandy Scott BPM Systems 17-1-2014 7 Bridget White BPM Systems 17-1-2014 8 Sandy Scott Process Mining 20-1-2014 5 Bridget White Process Mining 20-1-2014 9 case id activity name timestamp other data John Anderson Process Mining 20-1-2014 8 every row is an event (here: an exam attempt)
Another event log: patient treatment patient activity timestamp doctor age cost 5781 make X-ray 23-1-2014@10.30 Dr. Jones 45 70.00 5541 blood test 23-1-2014@10.18 Dr. Scott 61 40.00 5833 blood test 23-1-2014@10.27 Dr. Scott 24 40.00 5781 blood test 23-1-2014@10.49 Dr. Scott 45 40.00 5781 CT scan 23-1-2014@11.10 Dr. Fox 45 1200.00 5833 surgery 23-1-2014@12.34 Dr. Scott 24 2300.00 5781 handle payment 23-1-2014@12.41 Carol Hope 45 0.00 5541 radiation therapy 23-1-2014@13.57 Dr. Jones 61 140.00 case 5541 id radiation activity therapy name 23-1-2014@13.08 timestamp Dr. resource Jones 61 other 140.00 data
Another event log: order handling order number activity timestamp user product quantity 9901 register order 22-1-2014@09.15 Sara Jones iphone5s 1 9902 register order 22-1-2014@09.18 Sara Jones iphone5s 2 9903 register order 22-1-2014@09.27 Sara Jones iphone4s 1 9901 check stock 22-1-2014@09.49 Pete Scott iphone5s 1 9901 ship order 22-1-2014@10.11 Sue Fox iphone5s 1 9903 check stock 22-1-2014@10.34 Pete Scott iphone4s 1 case 9901 id handle activity payment name 22-1-2014@10.41 timestamp Carol resource Hope iphone5s other data 1
How to get started? Event Data Process Mining Tools Data Science Mindset
Process Mining Software
900+ plug-ins available covering the whole process mining spectrum
How to get started? Event Data Process Mining Tools Data Science Mindset
43.000+25.000 people joined! Process Mining Data Science in Action Starts again on October 7 th 2015! Register via https://www.coursera.org/course/procmin
Conclusion
Conclusion Process Mining: Connecting data science and process science Easy to get started: data, software, and courses are (freely) available. We are interested in doing supply chain process mining projects!
http://www.tue.nl/dsce/ http://vdaalst.com http://www.processmining.org/