North Central Texas Thinking Ahead

North Central Texas Thinking Ahead Donna Coggeshall

Population: Past, Present, and Future 2010: 6.4 million 2040: 10.5 million 1900: 0.4 million Figures are for the 12-county MPA

Development Form Thinking Ahead

2005 2040 Growth 12-County Area 2005 2040 Change Percent Change People 5.8 10.5 4.7 82.5% Jobs 3.6 6.6 3.0 82.3% all figures are rounded and in millions compound annual growth rate: 1.7% The 12-County Area includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant, and Wise Counties Population figures do not include people living in group quarter such as jail, dorms, or nursing homes.

2005 2040 Growth 12 10 12-County Area12- County Area 8 Millions 6 4 2 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Popula0on Employment Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

2005 2040 Growth County share of projected population growth 2.3% 0.9% Wise 30.5% 12.6% Denton 20.8% 18.3% Collin 2.7% Rockwall 1.7% Hunt Parker Tarrant Dallas 2.6% 1.6% Hood 3.2% 2.9% Kaufman Johnson Ellis Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

2005 2040 Growth County share of projected employment growth 2.1% 1.1% Wise 27.5% 8.7% Denton 36.7% 12.6% Collin 1.4% Rockwall 1.5% Hunt Parker Tarrant Dallas 1.9% 0.8% Hood 3.1% 2.6% Kaufman Johnson Ellis Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

Projections Summarized by Market

2005-2040 Population Growth Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

2005-2040 Population Growth Alliance/ North Fort Worth McKinney Frisco/ Legacy Western Tarrant County Las Colinas Southeastern Tarrant County

Projections Summarized by Market

2005-2040 Employment Growth Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

2005-2040 Employment Growth Las Colinas Brookhollow/ Central Stemmons 190/DNT North Central Corridor Dallas CBD/ Baylor/Uptown I-20

Thinking Ahead Development Form 2040 2005 Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

What Does It Mean? 44 new hospitals 1,100 new schools 1 million new homes 350 new neighborhood retail centers 14 new malls 470,000 new multifamily units Mobility 2035 70 million more sq ft of class A office space

For More Information: www.nctcog.org Donna Coggeshall 817-695-9168 dcoggeshall@nctcog.org

Center of Population 2040 2005

Household Population

Household Population 2040 Wise Denton Collin Hunt Rockwall 2005 Parker Tarrant Dallas Kaufman Hood Ellis Johnson

Historical Performance 6.5 6.0 Actual 2003 Predic0on 5.5 5.0 Actual 1994 Predic0on 1988 & 1989 Predic0ons Millions of People 4.5 4.0 1974 Predic0on 1988 Predic0on Actual 1988 Predic0on 1989 Predic0on 3.5 1975 Predic0on 3.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year The 9-County Area includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, and Tarrant Counties Data sources: Predictions-various NCTCOG Demographic Forecasts (release year indicated); Actual-U.S. Census Bureau

North Central Texas Council of Governments Voluntary association of, by and for local governments Assist local governments planning for common needs cooperating for mutual benefit coordinating for sound regional development

NCTCOG Region 16 counties 12,800 square miles 238 cities 152 school districts 36 special districts

Thinking Ahead NCTCOG Structure

Economy

Economic Ranking - GDP (millions of current dollars) Metropolitan Area 2001 2010 New York- Northern New Jersey- Long Island, NY- NJ- PA 898,039 1,280,517 Los Angeles- Long Beach- Santa Ana, CA 506,513 735,743 Chicago- Naperville- Joliet, IL- IN- WI 396,279 532,331 Washington- Arlington- Alexandria, DC- VA- MD- WV 264,478 425,167 Houston- Sugar Land- Baytown, TX 230,404 384,603 Dallas- Fort Worth- Arlington, TX 255,038 374,081 Philadelphia- Camden- Wilmington, PA- NJ- DE- MD 241,831 346,932 San Francisco- Oakland- Fremont, CA 230,363 325,927 Other Major Texas Metros Aus0n- Round Rock, TX 53,497 86,029 San Antonio, TX 52,324 82,036 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Economic Recessions Start (quarter) End (quarter) Duration in Months February 1945(I) October 1945 (IV) 8 November 1948(IV) October 1949 (IV) 11 July 1953(II) May 1954 (II) 10 August 1957(III) April 1958 (II) 8 April 1960(II) February 1961 (I) 10 December 1969(IV) November 1970 (IV) 11 November 1973(IV) March 1975 (I) 16 January 1980(I) July 1980 (III) 6 July 1981(III) November 1982 (IV) 16 July 1990(III) March 1991 (I) 8 March 2001 (I) November 2001 (IV) 8 December 2007 (IV) June 2009 (II) 18 Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html

Unemployment Rate 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan- 00 May- 00 Sep- 00 Jan- 01 May- 01 Sep- 01 Jan- 02 May- 02 Sep- 02 Jan- 03 May- 03 Sep- 03 Jan- 04 May- 04 Sep- 04 Jan- 05 May- 05 Sep- 05 Jan- 06 May- 06 Sep- 06 Jan- 07 May- 07 Sep- 07 Jan- 08 May- 08 Sep- 08 Jan- 09 May- 09 Sep- 09 Jan- 10 May- 10 Sep- 10 Jan- 11 May- 11 Sep- 11 Jan- 12 U.S. Texas DFW MSA Tarrant County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

DFW Major Employers Name American Airlines/AMR NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base Lockheed Mar0n HP/EDS Texas Instruments HQ UT Southwestern Medical Center University of North Texas Parkland Health & Hospital System Medical City Dallas Hospital Nortel Networks Employees on Site Sector 11,709 Transporta0on/Warehousing 11,350 Public Administra0on 10,500 Manufacturing 10,000 Scien0fic/Technical 9,800 Manufacturing 8,545 Health Care/Social Assistance 7,762 Educa0on 6,900 Health Care/Social Assistance 6,000 Health Care/Social Assistance 6,000 Informa0on Source: NCTCOG Development Monitoring Program

Tarrant County Major Employers Name American Airlines/AMR NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base Lockheed Mar0n UTA Burlington Northern Santa Fe JPS Health Network AMR Corpora0on Texas Health Harris Methodist Bell Helicopter Textron City of Arlington Employees on Site Sector 11,709 Transporta0on/Warehousing 11,350 Public Administra0on 10,500 Manufacturing 5,300 Educa0on 4,900 Transporta0on/Warehousing 4,600 Health Care/Social Assistance 4,000 Transporta0on/Warehousing 3,968 Health Care/Social Assistance 3,820 Manufacturing 3,500 Public Administra0on Source: NCTCOG Development Monitoring Program

State Data Center Projections

A More Diverse Region Source: Texas State Data Center

70% 60% 50% Thinking Ahead Hispanic Population Projections 40% 30% 20% Dallas County Collin County Denton County Tarrant County 10% 0% 2000 2010 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center

And a more Mature One 100% 65 plus 80% 45-64 60% 40% 20% 25-44 18-24 Less than 18 0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center

Changing Age Structure Age (years) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 North Central Texas 2030 2000 2006 Population Male Female 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 Persons (thousands) Source: Woods & Poole Economics

Tarrant County Population Projection Scenarios 4.5 4.0 Millions of People 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 Zero Net Migra0on (0.0) Lowered Migra0on (0.5) Unchanged Migra0on (1.0) Recent Migra0on Trends (2000-2007) 1.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Zero net migration (0.0) assumes that immigration and outmigration are equal. Lowered migration (0.5) assumes net migration rates that are one-half those experienced in the 1990s. Unchanged migration (1.0) assumes that trends in age, sex and race/ethnicity experienced in the 1990s will continue. Recent migration trend (2000-2007) takes into account post-2000 trends in migration rates, age, sex, and race/ethnicity composition. Source: Texas State Data Center

Tarrant County Population Projections 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Other 64,588 79,523 95,211 112,431 131,390 152,183 174,573 198,703 224,044 Hispanic 285,290 353,688 430,994 518,507 617,602 730,637 858,242 998,979 1,151,940 Black 188,144 206,584 225,094 243,363 260,323 275,908 290,024 302,217 313,039 Anlgo 908,197 913,930 910,902 902,323 886,218 861,817 829,316 790,716 748,304 Source: Texas State Data Center

Tarrant County Age Structure Projections Age Group 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5 Females in 2000 Males in 2000 Females in 2040 Males in 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Number of People Source: Texas State Data Center