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1. Opening discussion 2. 2014 Hot Spot 3. April 2, 2014 Verification 4. Graphical Forecasts 5. Severe Weather Tables 6. 120 Day Alert 7. Arctic Oscillation 8. North Atlantic Oscillation 9. El Niño & La Niña 1-2 year forecast 10. Summary & Conclusion
EL Niño Watch! As we move through spring and into the summer season we will have severe weather dates to forecast, hurricane impacts along the coast to predict, and then we will be looking into next fall. Should El Niño develop we will project into the winter season on what it will likely mean for your key locations. The weather pattern continues to cycle according to (LRC). The cycle length has been consistently in the range of 56 to 58 days. This latest storm system, that just hit the southern states hard, is directly related to the one that produced a major winter storm that became somewhat famous when the Atlanta Mayor was aggressive with cancelling most of the city activity for that storm system a day in advance. This same part of the pattern is cycling through and another impacting storm hit that same region with thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes, and some hail. That region is just out of this year s hot spot and the severe weather was still somewhat limited. As we move deeper into the spring the hot spot will light up in the next few weeks. In this report we will look into that first week of May when one of the more active storm systems is likely to cycle through and produce the conditions for a severe weather outbreak. Gary Lezak
Here is a closer up look at the hot spots for this season!
Our first big severe weather forecast did end up verifying, but fortunately it was still a bit too cool for a major outbreak. On the left is our 60 day forecast for a spike in severe weather on April 2 nd for your Kansas locations and on the right are the storm reports for that day. As you can see there Is a concentration of hail reports in south central and eastern Kansas, in the hot spots, but also just below major damage size. There were reports of golf ball sized hail.
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Indiana/Ohio Region Severe Weather Forecast 4/21/14 4/22/14 4/23/14 4/24/14 4/25/14 4/26/14 4/27/14 4/28/14 4/29/14 4/30/14 5/1/14 5/2/14 5/3/14 5/4/14 5/5/14 5/6/14 5/7/14 5/8/14 5/9/14 5/10/14 The weather pattern will increasingly have the ability to produce severe weather set-ups. Each peak shows the part of the cycling weather pattern that has had a storm move by in previous cycles. The May 4 th to 10 th time frame is the most likely period that will have at least one big severe weather day across Indiana and Ohio. This has been in one of our severe weather alerts.
Kansas Region Severe Weather Forecast 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4/21/14 4/22/14 4/23/14 4/24/14 4/25/14 4/26/14 4/27/14 4/28/14 4/29/14 4/30/14 5/1/14 5/2/14 5/3/14 5/4/14 5/5/14 5/6/14 5/7/14 5/8/14 5/9/14 5/10/14 Just like for the Indiana/Ohio region, the Kansas region will have increasing risks for severe weather. We have identified two main periods around the 30 th of April and then the big storm in early May. The computer models go out to 16 days and we will begin seeing the models project these set-ups. If they fit that LRC, then we will gain much more confidence in the outlooks.
Indiana/Ohio Region Severe Weather Forecast 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Series1 30 20 10 0 4/25/14 4/27/14 4/29/14 5/1/14 5/3/14 5/5/14 5/7/14 5/9/14 5/11/14 5/13/14 5/15/14 5/17/14 5/19/14 5/21/14 5/23/14 5/25/14 5/27/14 5/29/14 5/31/14 6/2/14 6/4/14 6/6/14 6/8/14 6/10/14 This graphic shows the two big peaks in early May, and again in late May. The Super Bowl part of the cycling weather pattern will be returning in late May into the first week of June. This could be the most active part of the entire weather pattern. We are expecting a wet, stormy, and rather severe stretch late in this forecast period.
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 3/15/14 3/17/14 3/19/14 3/21/14 3/23/14 3/25/14 3/27/14 3/29/14 3/31/14 4/2/14 4/4/14 4/6/14 4/8/14 4/10/14 4/12/14 4/14/14 Kansas Region Severe Weather Potential 4/16/14 4/18/14 4/20/14 4/22/14 4/24/14 4/26/14 4/28/14 4/30/14 5/2/14 5/4/14 5/6/14 5/8/14 5/10/14 5/12/14 5/14/14 5/16/14 5/18/14 5/20/14 5/22/14 5/24/14 5/26/14 5/28/14 5/30/14 6/1/14 6/3/14 6/5/14 6/7/14 6/9/14 This is the overall severe weather outlook for this up-coming severe weather season. The peaks show the high confidence that storm systems will produce severe weather. There are five periods between now and June 10 th that have 80% confidence or higher. As we move through this next LRC cycle we will be able to better identify the dates and narrow down the ranges if possible.
There are three more storm systems we are monitoring for the potential of severe weather in your locations. They do not look like classic severe weather events as cold air will be involved and will likely keep the severe weather reports to a minimum. Now that being said, we will have to watch each event closely for minor shifts, as we are in severe weather season.. Location Cov. Date Flooding Tornado Wind Damage Hail Damage Snow Ice Kitchener & Waterloo,Ontario 100% Winnipeg, Manitoba 100% Indiana/Ohio 50% 13-14, 19-20, 28-30 Harrisonburg, Virginia 50% 14-16, 19-20, 28-30 Kansas 50% 12-13, 17-19, 27-29 Low Medium High
Indiana and Ohio will be in the middle of much severe weather this Spring. Kansas is on the western edge for now, but this will likely change for May and June. Location Cov. Date Flooding Tornado Wind Damage Hail Damage Snow Ice Kitchener & Waterloo,Ontario 100% Some Severe Late Winnipeg, Manitoba Indiana/Ohio 100% See Graphs Harrisonburg, Virginia 30% Severe in May Kansas 80% See Graphs Low Medium High
120 Day Forecast Severe Weather Outbreak Forecast Key Locations To Be Impacted Forecast Made by Weather 2020, LLC Severe Weather Is Expected In Key Locations Between May 3 rd & 12 th Confidence is High! The part of the weather pattern that produced the November 16 th -17 th, 2013 severe weather outbreak will cycle back through, according to (LRC), between May 3 rd -12 th. Confidence is much higher that severe a severe weather outbreak will occur within the forecast hot spots for this season in this May version of the pattern.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has gone deep into negative territory in three of the past four years. But, not in 2013-2014. So, how did it get so cold. We believe it is because of the LRC. The weather pattern that is cycling has prevented the AO from dipping deep into the negative, but the LRC has been strongly defined by a major eastern Canada trough. The location of this long term long-wave trough has prevented blocking from developing at high latitudes. This did not allow the AO to go deeply negative. The AO and NAO, and other teleconnections show a cycling pattern as well. The same pattern continues to produce the same results. A new cycle will evolve next fall, but for now we can use our knowledge of the LRC combined with influence from each of these teleconnections to make accurate weather forecasts.
The North Atlantic Oscillation briefly dipped into negative territory last week, but it is on it s way back up. Overall this index has been near neutral all winter into the early spring. There has been no apparent effect from the NAO on the LRC. In fact, we believe it is the LRC that is actually influencing the NAO and preventing it from becoming a factor. This is really just an index that shows what is happening at the moment. But, there is likely a cycle in these teleconnections and identifying this cycle combined with our knowledge of the LRC will allow us to make intelligent weather forecast decisions.
-0.7-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.4 There is increasing evidence that El Niño will be developing during the winter of 2014-2015. An El Niño watch was issued by the Climate Prediction Center and this is what we have been forecasting for six months now. The index did dip lower into La Niña territory down to -.7 C. But, the warming has started in recent weeks. We will keep monitoring this with an update next month.
El Niño Watch: Warming water temperatures! Notice the temperature rise during the past two months. After a minimum in late January the equatorial Pacific waters have been warming.
LRC El Niño & La Niña 1-2 year Forecast LRC Forecast Index Neutral 2.0 ENSO Forecast 1.5 1.0 0.5 0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0 W 2012-13 Sp 2013 Su 2013 Fa 2013 W 2013-14 Sp 2014 Su 2014 W 2014-15 An El Niño Watch Is Now In Effect For Next Winter!
Climate Prediction Center Is Now Agreeing With Our Forecast. An El Niño Is Possible By Next Winter
We are forecasting near neutral ENSO conditions through the end of this year. Weather 2020 s confidence is high that an El Niño will develop within the next 14 months, more likely around the end of the fall of 2014. El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters. When there is an El Niño the trade winds near the equator shift and the global circulation changes. Influences are likely felt around the world, but we strongly believe that El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions are only an influence on the weather pattern that will be setting up according to the LRC each year.
One-Two Year Forecast, What would an El Niño mean? Location Kitchener/Waterloo, Ontario Winnipeg, Manitoba Northern Indiana (Elkhart County) Harrisonburg, Virginia Kansas Summary & Forecast Neutral conditions will continue through this winter. There is an increasing chance of El Niño developing in the winter of 2014-15. We will update this as confidence grows, and explain what it will mean for each region. El Niño would force a farther south storm track leaving a milder winter across much of Canada. We are currently forecasting near neutral ENSO conditions for this winter In an El Niño year there is a 62.5% chance of above average temperatures across northern Indiana A weak El Niño is linked to more snowfall, while a strong El Niño is linked to warmer and less snow El Niño would imply a better chance of stronger impacting storm systems.
Right now we would like your teams to prepare for a potential outbreak of severe weather close to the 5 th to 8 th of May. We will be looking more closely into these potential set-ups on the weekly reports. Between now and early May there are a few storm systems we are monitoring closely for. If we see any hint at one of them showing up on the computer models, and it fits the LRC we will provide as much warning as possible. Remember we are forecasting weather beyond 7 days which other sources are not able to do with any level of accuracy. For now, we continue to cycle through this somewhat cool pattern. Spring is going to be winning more of these battles between the cold and warm air masses and it will result in some violent weather. Gary Lezak CEO Weather 2020, LLC