15 1 Global Industrial Production (annualized percent change of 3 month average over previous 3 month average) Emerging markets 5-5 World Industrial countries -1 1999 '1 ' '3 Source: Haver Analytics.
5 3 Global Trade (in SDR terms; annualized percent change of 3 month average over previous 3 month average) World Emerging markets 1 Industrial countries -1-1999 '1 ' '3 ' Source: Haver Analytics.
6 6 (index) Business Confidence Euro area (right scale) 1 56 5 8 Japan (right scale) 36 United States (left scale) 3 1999 '1 ' '3 ' -1 - -3 - -5 Sources: Institute for Supply Management; European Commission; and Bank of Japan.
16 (index) Consumer Confidence 1 1-1 United States (left scale) -8 8-1 6 Japan (left scale) Euro area (right scale) -16-1999 '1 ' '3 ' - Sources: Conference Board; European Commission; and Cabinet Office (Economic Planning Agency).
8 7 6 5 3 1 Global GDP (percent change from four quarters earlier) World Industrial countries Emerging markets 1996 '97 '98 '99 '1 ' '3 Source: IMF staff estimates.
Change in real 6-month LIBOR, percent Fiscal and Monetary Easing in the Major Advanced Countries: Expected Policy Changes, 1-3 -1 - -3 (percent) Tighter Japan Canada Germany United Kingdom Euro Area United States Easier France Italy - -3 - -1 1 Change in structural fiscal balance (percent of potential GDP) Source: IMF staff estimates.
5 (percent) Global GDP Growth 3 3 1 World US Japan Euro Area Source: IMF staff estimates.
Developing Country GDP Growth 9 8 (percent) 3 7 6 5 3 1-1 Developing Countries Central and Eastern Europe Emerging Asia Latin America Source: IMF staff estimates.
3 1 United States: Employment (payroll survey; percent change from previous peak) Typical cycle (average) 199s cycle -1 - Current cycle -3 +6 +1 +18 + +3 +36 Months from peak Source: Haver Analytics.
18 United States: Nonfinancial Corporate Profits and Fixed Investment (percent of nonfinancial corporate GDP) Fixed investment 16 1 1 1 8 Corporate profits 6 197 '7 '78 '8 '86 '9 '9 '98 Source: Haver Analytics.
Real domestic demand growth 6 5 3 1 Euro Area: Domestic Demand and Inflation (average annual percent change; 1999-3; correlation coefficient=.7) France Finland Belgium Austria Germany 1 3 5 Inflation rate Source: IMF staff calculations. Spain Italy Greece Netherlands Portugal Ireland
Euro Area and United States: Corporate Leverage 9 (ratio of debt to internal funds) 8 7 Euro area 6 United States 5 1995 '96 '97 '98 '99 '1 ' Sources: European Central Bank; U.S. Federal Reserves; and IMF staff estimates.
Japan: Real GDP Growth 8 (percent change from a year earlier) 1 6 Fiscal tightening, Asia crisis, and banking crisis Bursting of IT bubble 8 6 - Yen appreciation - - 199 '9 '9 '96 '98 ' - Source: Haver Analytics.
Emerging Asia: Real GDP Growth 1 1 8 6 (percent change from four quarters earlier) China India Asean- NIEs - '1 ' '3 Source: Haver Analytics.
3 1-1 Brazil, Argentina, Mexico: Industrial Production Growth (annualized percent change of 3 month average over previous 3 month average) Brazil Mexico - -3 Argentina - '1 ' '3 ' Source: Haver Analytics.
European Union Accession Countries: Current Account Balances (percent of GDP) - - -6-8 -1 Average, - 3 Slovenia Slovak Rep. Romania Poland Hungary Czech Rep. Bulgaria Baltics Source: IMF staff estimates.
Oil Price: Spot and Futures (West Texas Intermediate; U.S. dollars/barrel) 35 3 5 Spot Futures Price April 8, 15 1 3 5 6 Source: Bloomberg Financial Markets, LP.
6 Current Account Balances (percent of GDP) Emerging Asia Japan - - Euro Area 1/ United States -6 198 '8 '88 '9 '96 1/ Prior to 1997, calculated as the sum of the balance of individual euro area countries. Source: IMF staff estimates.
GDP Growth during Current Account Reversals 7 6 Upper quartile 5 Median 3 Lower quartile -3 - -1 1 3 1-1 Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff estimates.
Real House Prices (percent change; 1997-) United Kingdom Ireland Spain Netherlands Australia France United States Italy Canada Germany Japan Source: National sources. - -1 1 3 5 6 7
Housing Price Busts and GDP Growth 7 6 (GDP percent change from a year earlier, constant prices) 5 3 Upper quartile 1 Median -1 - -3 Lower quartile -1-1 -8-6 - - 6 8 1 1 Source: IMF staff estimates. Quarters before and after a housing price bust (Peaking in the level of real housing prices)
8 75 Public Debt in Emerging Market and Industrial Economies (percent of GDP) Industrial countries 7 65 6 Emerging markets 55 199 9 96 98 Source: IMF staff estimates.
Emerging Market Economies: Overborrowing Ratio 6 (median values) 5 3 1 Latin American countries Asian countries Other emerging market economies Source: IMF staff estimates.
8, 7, 6, 5,, (basis points) Emerging Market Spreads Argentina (left scale) Brazil (right scale),, 1,6 1, 3,, 1, 1998 99 8 EMBI+ adjusted Argentina (right scale) 1 3 Source: Bloomberg Financial Markets, LP.