Introduction International Migration in Lincolnshire 2010/11 December 2011 This document looks at international migration into Lincolnshire over the last decade, and considers how it has changed over time. Five different national sources of data are presented which can all be used as indicators of international migration trends. The sources are: National Insurance Numbers allocated to overseas nationals (NINo) Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) data Births by Nationality of Mother Flag 4 GP records data Annual Population Survey (APS) NINo and WRS datasets provide information specifically on migrants arriving to work in the country, whereas births and GP records can offer some understanding into family trends, or changes in the numbers of non-working migrants. The APS is useful as it provides an estimate of stock, rather than trends for incoming migrants. As all restrictions across the European Union (EU) on labour market participation came to an end in April 2011, this document presents the final data from the WRS. Key Findings 10 8 Other documents in this series: Population Trends in Lincolnshire 2010 International Inmigration in Lincolnshire 2009/10 Coming soon: Unemployment in Lincolnshire November 2011 Publish date: December 2011 Email: lro@lincolnshire.gov.uk Web: www.research-lincs.org.uk Latest estimates place the number of people resident in Lincolnshire who were not born in the UK at 45,000. Of those approximately 26,000 were born in countries in the European Union. The number of migrants registering for national insurance has risen in 2010/11, reversing a four year trend of decline in the county. Most districts in the county have seen the proportion of births to non-uk mothers more than double since 2001. This trend suggests that increasing numbers of migrants are choosing to settle in the UK and start families. Pre-A8 accession, the majority of international migrants to Lincolnshire came from Portugal. Between 2004 and 2008, Poland became the largest contributor of migrants, with the latest data now showing that Latvia and Lithuania are currently the county s largest sources. Whilst NINo registrations do appear to show that the UK and global recession did impact on migrant worker numbers to the UK and Lincolnshire, with falls in registration numbers from 2007/08 onwards, the increased numbers in the latest data shows that slow UK economic growth and global economic uncertainty are yet to have an impact.
NINo Registrations in Lincolnshire A NINo is required by any overseas national looking to work or claim benefits / tax credits in the UK, including the self employed and students working part time. Figure 1 below shows that nearly 6,500 international migrants registered for national insurance in the county during 2010/11, up 900 on the previous year. This breaks the trend that began in 2005/06 of registrations declining across the county. In 2010/11 only North Kesteven and West Lindsey saw a fall on last year s NINo registration numbers. Although numbers had been declining nationally and in the county until this year, numbers in Boston had remained constant, and have peaked this year with the largest number of registrations ever recorded. Overall these latest NINo registration figures show that the uncertain economic climate does not appear to have made the UK a less attractive prospect to international migrants during 2010/11. Figure 1: Number of NINo registrations Geographical 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Change 2009/10-2010/11 Area Boston 2,140 2,160 2,140 2,170 2,470 300 East Lindsey 790 640 460 300 370 70 Lincoln 1,320 1,190 870 760 1,130 370 North Kesteven 560 440 340 340 300-40 South Holland 1,460 1,610 1,420 1,340 1,470 130 South Kesteven 1,210 920 710 450 540 90 West Lindsey 230 180 150 180 160-20 Lincolnshire 7,710 7,140 6,090 5,540 6,440 900 United Kingdom 705,840 733,090 686,110 572,740 704,910 132,170 Figure 2 below ranks Lincolnshire s districts with those in the rest of the UK by numbers of NINo registrations. Most of Lincolnshire s districts have actually fallen in rankings this year, with only Lincoln experiencing a significant rise. The rate of registrations in Boston per 1,000 of the working age population is over four times the national or county average. Figure 2: NINo Registrations; District Rankings 2010/11 (2009/10 ranking in brackets) Local Authority District UK: 380 Districts NINo Registrations 2010/11 per 1,000 working-age population Boston 62 (60) 69 East Lindsey 97 (84) 29 Lincoln 126 (141) 18 North Kesteven 219 (219) 7 South Holland 260 (262) 4 South Kesteven 276 (248) 5 West Lindsey 330 (305) 3 Lincolnshire - 15 United Kingdom - 17
Figure 3: Number of NINo registrations in Lincolnshire by country of origin NINos Registrations 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Rep of Lithuania Rep of Latvia Poland Romania Bulgaria 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Figure 3 takes the top five countries of migration to the county in 2010/11 as measured by NINo registrations and tracks their changes over the last eight years. It is clear that Lincolnshire experienced a large influx of Polish migrants between 2003/04 and 2007/08 which then subsequently declined. Conversely, the numbers of migrants from the Republics of Lithuania and Latvia have been on the rise since 2007/08, and are now currently the largest contributors to Lincolnshire s in-migrant population. Increasing numbers of Latvian and Lithuanian registrations may have been due to recent conditions in their economies; in 2009 Latvia and Lithuania had some of the highest unemployment rates in the EU 1. This downturn in the Baltic states has however turned in recent months to the highest growth 2, suggesting that the next release of NINo data may reveal a slowing of this growth trend. Pre-2004, the largest providers of international migrants to Lincolnshire were Portugal and South Africa, but total numbers from all countries remained below a thousand. In 2004/05 the number of people registering for a NINo in the county from Poland alone was almost double that. The last couple of years has seen a new trend develop, as numbers of registrations from Poland decline, offset by the increase described above from Latvia and Lithuania. In the UK, just under 40% of NINo registrations by international migrants since 2004 have come from the A8 countries 3. In Lincolnshire, this percentage is 78% which demonstrates the difference in the make-up of international in-migrants into Lincolnshire compared to the national average. As a county which saw very little international in-migration previous to the opening up of the EU labour market, it is clear from the NINo registrations data that Lincolnshire holds more of an attraction to international migrant workers from the A8 countries than those from other parts of the world.
Figure 4: Proportion of NINo registrations in Lincolnshire during 2010/11 by the top 10 countries of origin 100% 80% 60% Other Spain India Portugal China Peoples Republic 40% Hungary 20% Bulgaria Romania 0% Lincolnshire Boston East Lindsey Lincoln North Kesteven South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey Poland Rep of Latvia Rep of Lithuania Figure 4 above looks at the most recent year of NINo registration data and shows the proportions registering in each district by home nationality. 30% of all NINo registrations in the county were from Lithuania, followed by Latvia with 24% and Poland with 21%. A similar pattern can be seen in Boston and South Holland, which both received the largest numbers of international migrants. An above average (30%) proportion of migrant workers arriving in East Lindsey were from Poland, whilst both South Kesteven and East Lindsey saw large proportions of Hungarian migrants compared with the other districts. Over half of NINo registrations in West Lindsey were from migrants with an unknown nationality, or one outside of the Lincolnshire top 10, suggesting a very different migration pattern which may be more akin to neighbouring Nottinghamshire or North Lincolnshire. Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) The Worker Registration Scheme began in May 2004 to collect information on workers from the eight EU accession states (A8) registering for jobs in the UK. The WRS is a useful source of information on international in-migration, not only because it provides numbers of A8 nationals registering for work in the UK, but also as it provides data on the occupations migrants are working in. The latest ONS report on in-migration estimates however that around a third of migrants nationally may be missed by the WRS 4 due to unemployment, self-employment, or simply not
registering. As can be seen in figure 5 below, numbers in 2010 are substantially lower than NINo registrations which would seem to support this estimate. The report also identifies that outside of London, Boston receives the most registrations per 1,000 population in the UK. Figure 5: WRS Registrations per 1,000 population Source: UK Border Agency Geographical Area 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total number of registrations 2010 Boston 37 30 33 27 1,585 East Lindsey 3 3 2 2 305 Lincoln 6 3 3 3 280 North Kesteven 4 3 2 3 290 South Holland 13 9 10 9 780 South Kesteven 5 3 2 2 245 West Lindsey 1 1 1 0 40 Lincolnshire 8 6 6 5 3,525 United Kingdom 3 2 2 2 115,565 As figure 5 shows, the county average is over double that of the UK, raised mainly by migrants entering Boston and South Holland. The figures also suggest a slight decline in numbers since last year. Figure 6 below shows the major occupations entered by new migrants to the county, with a strong majority entering lower skilled, lower paid work, despite evidence suggesting that they are a young and well educated population 5. Figure 6: WRS: Top Ten Occupations in Lincolnshire 2010/11 Source: UK Border Agency 100% Leisure and theme park attendants 80% Packer 60% 40% Driver, HGV (Heavy Goods Vehicle) Food processing operative (fruit / veg) Labourer, building 20% Cleaner, domestic staff Warehouse Operative 0% Lincolnshire Boston East Lindsey Lincoln North Kesteven South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey All Other Occupations Farm worker/ Farm hand Process operative (other Factory worker) All restrictions across the EU on labour market participation, including the WRS, have now come to an end. The UK was one of only three countries to open its labour market to A8 migrants in 2004. Although other EU states have relaxed their constraints since then, Austria and Germany remained closed to A8 labour until the enforced lifting of restrictions this April. It is not known what effect this change in legislation may have. On the one hand, there are now no barriers to A8 migrants in accessing out-of-work benefits, which some suggest could make the UK a more attractive destination 6. However, there is little evidence to suggest this will be the case, not least the fact that all EU countries, including countries much closer to the A8
states and ones which have until now been inaccessible, are now potential destinations for migrating workers. Births to non-uk Born Mothers Figure 7 shows the sharp rise in the percentage of births to non-uk born mothers. Between 2001 and 2010 this percentage has risen 10% in Lincolnshire. Around 60% of all births to non- UK born mothers in the county in 2010 were to mothers from the EU Accession states; this is a very different pattern to the national figure of 19%. Births to non-uk mothers nationally are most likely to be to women from the Middle East and Asia. Figure 7: Percentage of live births to non-uk born mothers Source: Office for National Statistics Geographical Area 2001 2005 2010 Births to women from EU Accession states as a proportion of all births to non-uk mothers (%) Boston 5.0 14.9 35.3 81 East Lindsey 3.9 4.7 7.6 43 Lincoln 6.8 8.7 17.4 56 North Kesteven 5.2 6.7 8.6 22 South Holland 5.1 10.7 22.6 79 South Kesteven 6.0 7.7 13.8 42 West Lindsey 2.9 5.5 6.6 37 Lincolnshire 5.1 8.0 15.1 59 United Kingdom 17.1 21.5 25.9 19 Over a third of all births in Boston are to non-uk born mothers and the district has overtaken Lincoln as the one with the highest proportion of such births. 81% of births to non-uk born mothers in Boston in 2010 were to mothers from the EU Accession states. These increasing numbers each year suggest that migrant workers are choosing to remain within Lincolnshire to start families, and so will possibly remain here permanently. This will of course have a direct impact on planning for future service delivery, in particular education and health care provision. The latest School Census data collected by Lincolnshire County Council for example, tells us that 5% of all current school pupils do not have English as their first language, which indicates the types of changes that will already have been essential to school service provision over the last few years. Flag 4 registrations in Lincolnshire Flag 4s are codes within the Patient Register Data Service (PRDS) system which are generated when an international in-migrant to England and Wales registers with a NHS GP. Unlike NINos and the WRS, Flag 4 data also counts children and people aged 65 plus as well as those of working age and, as a result, potentially provides a more accurate picture of international in-migration into an area. Local Flag 4 counts have though tended to be lower than the corresponding years count of NINo registrations, with local research suggesting 7 that only around 50% of migrants register with a GP. Whilst NINo registrations in the county fell between 2006/07 and 2009/10, figure 8 shows that Flag 4 counts remained fairly stable over that period. This potentially shows that international migrants already in the county were choosing to settle here, with family members arriving to join them over that period. This is to a certain extent supported by the changes in birth
numbers. Also, with the WRS data showing that the 18-34 age group make up by far the largest group to migrate to the county for work, some of these family members would also be the parents and/or children of those already working here. With children and older people being more likely to access GP services, this means that they would also be more likely to register with a GP. Figure 8: Flag 4 registrations (mid-year to mid-year) Source: Office for National Statistics Geographical Area 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Change 2008/09 2009/10 Boston 1,372 1,947 1,983 1,983 0 East Lindsey 476 494 409 378-31 Lincoln 1,303 1,268 1,166 1,128-38 North Kesteven 409 337 262 276 14 South Holland 1,108 1,057 1,014 1,277 263 South Kesteven 928 918 775 694-81 West Lindsey 180 171 180 201 21 Lincolnshire 5,776 6,192 5,789 5,937 148 Figure 8 also shows that Lincolnshire s districts experienced different trends in Flag 4 counts. Boston s figures have stayed level for the last three years, while numbers in East Lindsey and Lincoln have fallen. South Holland has seen the only significant rise in the latest data release, even though NINo registrations declined over the same period. Annual Population Survey (APS) Flag 4, WRS, and NINo registrations all indicate trends for new migrants arriving into the country. The APS differs from these in that it provides a measure of the number of people resident in Lincolnshire but who were born outside of the UK. Latest figures show that during the year April 2010 to March 2011 approximately 45,000 people were resident in Lincolnshire who were not born in the UK. Of those approximately 26,000 were born in countries in the European Union. Sources 1 BBC News Euro Unemployment at a Decade High, June 2009 2 Bloomberg Lithuanian Economic Growth Second Fastest in EU, May 2011 3 Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovenia 4 Trends in A8 migration to the UK during the recession, Office for National Statistics 5 IPPR, Social Networks and Polish Immigration to the UK, May 2009 6 Daily Express, 250 a week for every migrant, March 2011 7 The Dynamics of Migrant Labour in the South Lincolnshire Economy, Zaronaite and Tirzite South Holland District Council 2006 Indexing 2011 D. 1. Drivers for Change Business and Industry 6. 7. Environment Health and Care 2. Crime & Safety 8. Housing 3. Deprivation 9. Labour Market 4. Economy 10. Population 5. Education, Skills and Training 11. Unemployment 10 8 Using the reference system to the left, readers can identify how this document fits into sequence. The blue number/ letter in the circle relates to the indexing reference (left). The white number in the blue square is the document edition number.