Demographic/Migration Context: Britain s Ethnic Diversity and Recent Migration from the A8 Countries

Transcription

1 Demographic/Migration Context: Britain s Ethnic Diversity and Recent Migration from the A8 Countries John Eade, Michal Garapich and Stephen Drinkwater (CRONEM, Surrey and Roehampton universities) 1. Introduction Research is only beginning to explore the similarities and differences between well established minority ethnic groups, such as BMEs, and more recent arrivals such as refugees, asylum seekers and those from the A8 countries of central and eastern Europe. Like other research centres, which focus on the social, cultural and economic dimensions of these migration flows, CRONEM (Centre for Research on Nationalism, Ethnicity, and Multiculturalism at Surrey and Roehampton universities), we combine expertise on both old and new minorities. Here we will analyse the data available concerning ethnicity and then examine A8 migration drawing on our own research for the ESRC, BBC Newsnight and London boroughs, as well as data produced by other research centres and government institutions. 2. Ethnicity (S. Drinkwater) 2.1 The following tables show recent trends in the ethnic minority population in England and Wales for 1991 and Tables 1 and 2 use the Population Censuses the most reliable information on the demographics of ethnic minority groups. An ethnicity question was only asked in the UK Census for the first time in 1991 and although a slightly different ethnicity question was asked in 2001, there are seven consistent groups that can be identified across the two Census years (Platt et al., 2005). Different ethnicity questions were asked in Scotland and Northern Ireland, which makes comparisons that include these countries more difficult. 2.2 The information in Table 2 comes from the Samples of Anonymised Records, which are representative samples of the population and are very useful for examining the characteristics of different population sub-groups.

2 2.3 Table 3 is based on some recent estimates by the Office of National Statistics (ONS), which provides updated estimates for the population of different ethnic groups, produced only for England, based on the 2001 definition of ethnicity. 2.4 Table 1 shows the rapid growth in population amongst some ethnic minority groups between 1991 and 2001, especially Black Africans and Bangladeshis. Both of these groups witnessed the largest growth rates in the 0-15 and age categories. Table 2 reports some key demographic characteristics of these groups. It shows that Black Africans are the lowest mean age amongst the working age population and Whites the oldest, for both males and females. 2.5 The increase in educational attainment amongst this age group is also particularly noticeable, especially for ethnic minority groups. This is consistent with the high proportion of ethnic minority students that could be identified in 1991, which has been attributed to the greater disadvantage experienced by these groups in the labour market (Drew, 1995; Leslie and Drinkwater, 1999). The increase in, and high levels of, the percentage with higher qualifications amongst the Black African, Chinese and Indian groups is clear to see. 2.6 The table also indicates the increasing proportion of UK born individuals for each group apart from Black Africans and Whites (the recent migration of Whites, mainly from Europe will be discussed in due course). This effect was most pronounced for Black Caribbeans, Indians and Pakistanis. 2.7 Finally, it can be seen from Table 3 that the only groups to witness a decline in their populations between 2001 and 2005 were the White British and White Irish. In contrast, population growth for Other Whites was almost 5% per annum over the period, fueled by migration from Eastern Europe. Even larger per annum growth rates could be observed for the Chinese, other ethnic groups, Black Africans, Other Asians and three out of the four mixed groups. Each of the three main Asian groups was estimated to have grown by between 3 and 4% per annum between 2001 and 2005.

3 Table 1 Population by age and ethnic group in England and Wales (in percentages): Percentage Point Changes Growth Rates Total Total Total White Black Caribbean Black African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Non-white Total Sources: 1991 and 2001 Censuses of the Population

4 Table 2 Key demographic characteristics by ethnic group (working age population only) in England and Wales: Males Age Higher qualifications UK born Age Higher qualifications UK born White % 95.4% % 94.9% Black Caribbean % 44.1% % 54.6% Black African % 23.3% % 19.0% Indian % 15.1% % 27.2% Pakistani % 15.2% % 27.3% Bangladeshi % 6.8% % 13.4% Chinese % 9.6% % 17.4% Females Age Higher qualifications UK born Age Higher qualifications UK born White % 95.0% % 94.2% Black Caribbean % 44.6% % 58.7% Black African % 22.2% % 18.3% Indian % 14.7% % 27.2% Pakistani % 18.3% % 31.3% Bangladeshi % 8.1% % 14.4% Chinese % 8.1% % 13.4% Sources: 1991 and 2001 Samples of Anonymised Records Note: Higher qualifications relate to any post-school qualification and was the qualification question asked in the 1991 Census so also needs to be reported for 2001 (despite more detailed information on qualifications in the 2001 Census) for a comparison to be made between the two years. Data relate to individuals aged for males and for females.

5 Table 3 Population by ethnic group (in thousands) in England: Absolute Average Annual Change growth rate White British % White Irish % Other White % White & Black Caribbean % White & Black African % White & Asian % Other Mixed % Indian % Pakistani % Bangladeshi % Other Asian % Black Caribbean % Black African % Other Black % Chinese % Other ethnic group % Total % Source: ONS 3. Immigration 3.1 Much of the recent discussion of recent immigration to the UK has focused on migration from the A8 countries, especially Poland, since EU enlargement in However, there has continued to be considerable immigration from other parts of the world and the type of migration from these areas is often different in nature as well (see Table 4). 3.2 Recent migration from Central and Eastern Europe has tended to be on a shortterm work related basis, whilst immigration from other countries occurs for a much wider range of reasons (family reunification, seeking asylum, student) and is often on a longer term or permanent basis. 3.3 These patterns are evident in the headline immigration figures published by the ONS, which shows the high proportion of individuals entering from other countries, especially from the New Commonwealth, even in the post 2004 period, whereas relatively small proportions are estimated to have migrated from Poland and other

6 accession countries. This is because these data are based on the International Passenger Survey, which only covers individuals who intend to stay in the country for more than a year. 3.4 In contrast, information on the allocation of National Insurance Numbers (NINo) to overseas nationals provides a more complete indication of immigration flows in recent years to the UK. Table 5 reports that in 2006/7 there were 713,000 NINo registrations by overseas nationals, which was an increase of over 50,000 compared to the previous year and more than double the amount seen in 2002/3. Around 45% of registrations in 2006/7 were from A8 nationals and a massive 223,000 registrations were made by Poles, whilst the next most important country group was Indians, with just under 50,000 registrations. 3.5 However, these data will only relate to those recently arriving in the country who have found employment or are seeking work. Further indication of the scale of immigration from Central and Eastern Europe to the UK can be seen from Worker Registration Scheme data this will be discussed later. 3.6 The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is used to examine the characteristics of recent immigrants to the UK. Table 6 uses this data to report the characteristics of post-2003 immigrants of working age from Poland and Other A8 countries. The table also presents information for three comparison groups immigrants from Other European Countries, English Speaking Countries and Other Countries. 3.7 It can be seen from the table that recent immigrants are overwhelmingly young. This particularly applies to Poles, with over 85% of this group aged between 16 and 35. There is a slight over-representation of males amongst A8 immigrants (especially again amongst Poles), whereas there is a higher proportion of females for the other three groups. Recent Other European migrants are the least likely to be married, whilst immigrants from the rest of the world have by far the highest percentage of married persons. Recent A8 immigrants are also far less likely than immigrants from other countries (especially compared to immigrants from English Speaking Countries) to have located in London and its surrounding areas. 3.8 Given that overseas qualifications do not map onto UK qualifications very well, the measure of education reported in the table is based on the age that the individual left full-time education. It can be seen from the table that the age left full-time education is highest amongst recent Polish immigrants but is by far the lowest for recent immigrants from Other A8 countries. Although school starting ages vary by

7 country, there is some debate in the educational literature as to the value of early age schooling (Fredriksson and Ockert, 2005), so it appears that recent Polish immigrants to the UK are relatively well educated, particularly in comparison to Other A8 immigrants. However, there are also differences in English language proficiency amongst immigrant groups. 3.9 The LFS only contains very limited data on the language ability of immigrants but what information does exist suggests that Polish and other A8 immigrants have poorer English language skills than other immigrants.

8 Table 4 Total International Migration to the UK: All citizenships British Non- British European Union 15 European Union A8 European Union 25 Commonwealth All Old New 3 Other foreign 4 Source : ONS : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :

9 Table 5 NINo allocations to overseas nationals (in thousands) by year of registration and continent of origin: 2002/3-2006/7 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 EU Accession Countries EU Non-Accession Countries Non-EU European Countries Asia and Middle East Australasia and Oceania Americas Africa Others and Unknown Total Source: Department of Work and Pensions Table 6 Key demographic characteristics of recent working age immigrants to the UK: Poles Other EU8 Other European English Speaking Countries Other Countries % Male % aged % aged % aged 36-59/ % Married % living in London % living in East/South East % living elsewhere in UK Average age left FT education Source: Drinkwater et al. (2008), based on pooled Labour Force Survey data

10 Central and East European Immigration form the A8 countries (M. Garapich) 4. Numbers 4.1 This overview looks at general features of migration from 2004 Accession States 1 to the UK between the years 2004 and Several cautious remarks need to be made however in relations to data and its implications. 4.2 First, the important aspect of these migrations is that they did not happen overnight after May 2004 when central and east European countries joined the EU. Home Office statistics show that at least 500,000 Polish nationals entered the UK between 2002 and What we see today is the result of a long process of chain migration which has been facilitated by personal and institutional networks between recent migrants and their kin and friends in Poland, as well as with those who had arrived earlier in the UK. 4.3 The Workers Registration Scheme 2 is the main source of quantitative information about these flows. As we have seen above, other datasets include the Labour Force Survey and National Insurance Number registrations. Although these datasets provide a coherent picture at the national level, some significant differences can be observed locally. 4.4 Most data used here comes from the WRS. The data does not include self-employed people and those, who have been working continuously for 12 months prior to 1 st of May ,000 applied to register on the WRS between 1 May 2004 and 30 September 2007 and of these, 715,000 initial applications were approved. This does not indicate the number of long term migrants into the UK as most intend to come for short periods. 1 These are: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia 2

11 4.6 Those registering are predominantly young, single individuals who are taking up full time employment: 97% of workers applied to work full time 82% aged between 18 and % of workers stated that they had no dependants living with them in the UK when they registered 5% had dependants under the age of 17 with them. 5. Nationality of migrants 5.1 As the largest of the A8 nations and one with the strongest migration tradition, Poland supplies the majority of migrant workers to the UK. Between 1 May 2004 and 30 September 2007, Poles constituted 66% of those who applications were approved, followed by Lithuanians (10%) and Slovaks (10%). 6. Geographical distribution across the UK 6.1 Between May 2004 and September 2007, Anglia had the greatest number of workers registering with employers in the area, with 15% of the total. This is followed by the Midlands and London, with 13% and 12% of the workers registered.

12 6.2 The distribution of these flows may have changed recently. Between September 2006 and September 2007 the percentages were 14% for Anglia and the Midlands, 11% for the North East, and 10% for the North West and London. 7. Employment in Particular Regions % of those working in hospitality and catering were employed in London far more than in any other region. The next highest proportions were employed in Central England, Scotland and the South West (11%, 10% and 10% respectively) % of those working in agriculture were based in East Anglia, followed by the South West (17%), whereas only 1% were based in London or Wales. 7.3 Commentators have argued that A8 migrants are far more broadly spread across the UK than BMs, refugees and asylum seekers. However, we need to remember that the WRS does not capture all migrants and that those entering the UK before May 2004 focussed on London and the South-East. Consequently, the number of Polish migrants in the capital may be much higher than the WRS suggests. Estimates from Polish community groups put the London figure at around thousand. 8. Earnings 8.1 Overall this population is one of the poorest paid groups in UK. 72% of workers who applied between October 2006 and September 2007 stated that their hourly rate of

13 earnings was per hour, while 21% stated an hourly rate of This compares to 76% and 17% for the period May 2004 to September There is a clear tendency, however, to improve their position over time. As one of our studies shows, the longer Polish nationals live in the UK the more they earn There are important differences among A8 migrants, of course. Our qualitative research shows that Polish migrants work, career plans and earnings also strongly depend on individual migration strategies, on how transnational people are in terms of their dual orientation to country of origin and country of stay, and how they are building up their networks and capital in both countries. This is why more research needs to be undertaken on people s migration strategies: 9. Intention to stay/migration strategies 9.1 Migration from Poland to the United Kingdom has recently gained a considerable amount of attention from the British public. This is not only due to the numbers involved 5 and UK-wide spread of these flows 6 but because the future outcome of that intra-eu mobility is still largely unknown. The question whether these migrants would consist a long term settler population, or are more likely to come back to Poland or will migrate elsewhere keeps resurfacing in British as well as in Polish public debates. 9.2 However, current economic and social circumstances are no longer a question of either-or. Our research shows that many Polish migrants do not place their migration within a longer term perspective. There is a considerable amount of back and forth movement, which is facilitated by the growth of cheap airline travel and an increased amount of flight connections linking middle-sized cities in the UK and Poland (for instance, Bournemouth-Wroclaw, Newcastle-Krakow). 3 More on the overall impact on the labour market, see: Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) The impact of free movement of workers from Central and Eastern Europe on the UK labour market: 4 Garapich, Michał, John Eade, Drinkwater Stephen, 2007a. Poles Apart? EU Enlargement and the Labour Market Outcomes of Immigrants in the UK. IZA Discussion Papers;

14 10. What Large Datasets Reveal About Migration Strategies 10.1 It seems paradoxical that despite being a relatively qualified group but earning so little, Polish migrants, nevertheless, are positive about their decision to migrate and see it in terms of social advancement and upward mobility (see the CRONEM ESRC 7 study and the research done by COMPAS 8 at Oxford) In order to explain this we need to look at people s intended length of stay and actual migration strategies. The above-mentioned research showed that treating migration as an educational phase in migrants lives or a stopover in order to acquire other forms of capitals (social networks, English language, skills, experience, work in a multicultural setting etc.) is an asset in itself compensating for low pay/status. As a young cohort this group is still at the beginning of their professional lives and non-financial gains seem to offset their current situation on the labour market. 10. This sense of a new beginning, both on professional and personal levels, is reflected in the intended length of stay that Polish migrants state on the WRS form after registering for employment. 11. Intentional Unpredictability 11.1 As the table above shows, more than half of migrants come with the intention of a short stay and a quarter simply leave their options open by stating: I don t know. The latter figure is consistent throughout other large-scale surveys and needs a specific interpretation. 7 See the ESRC report on: 8

15 11.2 An analysis of 50 in-depth interviews with Polish migrants undertaken during the ESRC-funded project shows that refusal to state the length of their stay is a deliberate and adaptive strategy. This group represents people pursuing a strategy of intentional unpredictability that basically does not exclude any outcome of their mobility either staying in Britain or returning to Poland or moving to a different country In the BBC Newsnight survey, 30% of individuals pursued this strategy of being unwilling to commit to a specific timeframe. Almost a fifth perceived their migration as short term. Among individuals with a university degree (29% of the total of 505), the percentage leaving their options open rises to 36%. Intended length of stay Percent Less than 6 months 18.6 Between 6 and 24 months 12.7 Between 2 and 5 years 12.5 More than 5 years 11.1 Permanently 15.4 Don t know 29.7 Source: BBC Newsnight survey The persistence of the don t know group and a large section of individuals who see their migration as short term does not indicate a flaw in methodology or questionnaire design as the above results come from three different sources. This underlines the validity of the claim that one of the important features in current migration flows between Poland and Britain is their circularity, temporality and also unpredictability How should the intentional unpredictability strategy be interpreted? It should be stressed that from an economic point of view, this is a rational behavior in modern circumstances where flexibility, risk, ability to respond to quickly changing demands and conditions on the labour market and an ability to anticipate new opportunities require a high degree of acceptance of unpredictability of settlement and strong readiness to be mobile.

16 11.6 By refusing to set a specific date and timeframe, migrants also refuse to be pinned down to one territorial context as many of these individuals fairly regularly travel to and from Poland or elsewhere and maintain constant contact with their families and friends 9. Bearing especially in mind the recent economic growth in Poland, those who fully accept the temporality and unpredictability of their migration outcomes have a clear advantage compared with those who commit themselves to one place only. In other words, by keeping their options open and not excluding going back, migrants insure themselves against the precarious condition of the modern capitalist world high property prices, flexible employment arrangements, shaky markets and economic downturns. If something happens they can always go back. Main reason for moving to the UK Percent Financial/lack of jobs in Poland 58.4 More options/easier to live 41.4 Personal or professional development 31.3 Getting away from political and economic situation in Poland 17.8 Better future for children 13.9 Source: BBC Newsnight survey Although financial reasons and a lack of jobs in Poland were at the top of the options chosen by respondents, a considerable number of people referred to less immediately money-driven motivations as shown by easier to live and personal/professional development options. These options are also much more likely to be chosen by younger people with higher education. Only 55% of people below 24 chose the financial/employment reasons option as opposed to 83% of those above 46 years of age This supports the previously highlighted fact that despite poor pay conditions migrants see other, non-financial aspects of their migration as the positive outcome. This 9 According to one Polish commercial research 20% go to Poland 4 times a year, 40% do it twice a year; 25% have a daily contact with their families/friends in Poland via , phone, text; 43% maintain that contact few times a week. In addition Polish media consumption in the UK helps to keep track of developments in Poland. A very similar picture emerges from the ESRC study.

17 conclusion is supported by the ESRC study where almost every respondent pointed to other, mainly non-financial benefits brought by their migration decision. References Drew, D., (1995), Race, Education and Work: The Statistics of Inequality, Avebury, Aldershot. Drinkwater, S., Eade, J. and Garapich, M. (2008), Poles apart? EU enlargement and the labour market outcomes of immigrants in the UK, International Migration, forthcoming. Fredriksson, P. and Ockert, B. (2005), Is early school learning really more productive? The effect of school starting age on school and labour market performance, IZA Discussion Paper No Leslie, D. and Drinkwater, S. (1999), Staying on in full-time education: Reasons for higher participation rates among ethnic minority males and females, Economica, Vol. 66, Platt, L., Simpson, L. and Akinwale, B. (2005), Stability and change in ethnic groups in England and Wales, Population Trends, Vol. 121, pp