Syria a Revolution, a Conspiracy or a Civil War Universita Ca Foscari Venezia, 25 janvier 2013 Samir AITA Founding Member of the Syrian Democratic Forum Editor in Chief, Le Monde diplomatique Arabic editions President du Cercle des Economistes Arabes
Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the «Arab Spring» A Revolution: What for? o We don t want to talk politics, we want to overthrow the regime!!! The «youth Tsunami» May 1968 The «power system above the state» The 1973 oil boom model and its geopolitics
The Youth Tsunami A baby boom around the 90 s youth bulge now, like Europe in the 1960 s, but without the «Glorious Thirty» May 68! Syrie: Répartition de la population suivant les tranches d'âge 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Where are the youth? Rural Urban Migration: in small towns and in suburbs 100 Evolution de la part de la population urbaine (%) mapping Socially the 90 80 70 Algerie Egypte Jordanie Uprisings 60 50 Liban Maroc Palestine 40 Syrie Islamism And social 30 20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Tunisie integration
Where are the jobs? Chronic deficiency in job creations Labour force: >+300,000/ year Job created: 65,000/year (8,000 formal)!!!!!!!!!!!!! De-industrialisation Syrie Services Agriculture Industrie Finance Transport Commerce Construction
What is EMPLOYMENT? What is a salary man? What is a citizen?
Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the «Arab Spring» A Revolution following the failure of reforms 2000: the son after the father in a Republic 2001: The Damascus Spring : the collapse of the scheme of gradual reforms 2003: The social market economy : economic reforms first = the reinforcement of the power system above the state = crony capitalism 2005: Loosing Lebanon: the struggle of two power systems = the lost of regional influence 2010: The Arab Spring is not for us. 2011-2012: from a civic and peaceful Revolution towards a full fledged War
Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the «Arab Spring» More than 22 months and no issue February 2011: Deraa and Hauran the power system should stay united March 2011: The social network the people want to topple the regime March June 2011: local negotiations for a national crisis! The National Coordination Board June 2011: The National Dialogue the breakdown with civil society October 2011: foreign powers organize political opposition the Syrian National Council : an umbrella for opposition or a State in place of the State = the Libyan pollution March 2012 : The failure of politics Long life to the Free Syrian Army creation of the Syrian Democratic Forum July 2012 : The Cairo Documents: The National Compact and the vision of Transition November 2012: the creation of the Coalition No politics, no negotiations, we want to overthrow the regime
Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution Whatever the sufferings, if it does not bring human values, it is just an uprising From a local to a national uprising : we are all Deraa Staying Peaceful: Silmiyyeh, Silmyyeh You will not divide us: The Syrian people are one! We are all Kurds! The rise of politics and media the regionalization of conflict No violence, No sectarianism, No Foreign Intervention NCB against SNC we represent the people, we want foreign reconnaissance, and no-fly zone toppling dictatorship against toppling all symbols of regime
Syria, the road to war God, we only have you What is political representation? we are the State against stop the killing The Arab League : a mediator? The invention of Peace monitors Who is the Arab League? God we only have you you vs political Islam The United Nations and security Council as mediators The new cold war Nobody want to intervene
Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution Long life to the Free Syrian Army From a peaceful uprising to a military civil war Who is the Free Syrian Army? Even a war can only be won through politics The Syrian Democratic Forum Formulating Future The National Pact The transition program Bridging the rifts: military society - politics
Syria, a Conspiracy to Break the «Arab Spring» Is the Arab Spring only for populated republics? Two Arab Worlds : Can the new Arab awakening come from the Gulf What to do with oil and gas money? You have to acknowledge that there is a majority! Reshaping the Middle East : Sunni versus Shia axes
Revolution or Sunni Shiaa conflict
The Domino effect and the role of the army The domino effect in the Arab Spring Tunisia : the army helping a quick outcome Egypt: The army is on the people side!!! Bahrain: The army comes from Saudi Arabia Yemen: the army divided between the tribes and combatting terrorism Libya: the Qatari-French conspiracy against the army Syria: trying to reproduce the Libyan Scenario: the ideological army!!!
Syria, a local or a regional conflict Media and satellite channels: information or a weapon of mass manipulation Qatar: a Superpower? Iran: a friend or a Foe? Turkey: A secular or a Sunni State? Friend or Foe Saudi Arabia: competition or collaboration in the Gulf Iraq: Which Iraq? The Kurdish, the Sunni or the Shia quasi- States? Egypt: too busy with its own turmoil France: a regional or a far away power? La Question d Orient Israel: where does it stand? What can the Arab League do?
The Road for Oil
The Road for Qatar Gas
Turkey, a secular or religious state where are the alevis?
Is it the historical for an independent Kurdish state?
Syria, the place for a new Cold War We shall not admit that any foreign country intervene in Syria Serguei Lavrov The US: does it really want democracy in the region? Russia: why taking so much risk supporting the regime? China: what are its interests here? The UK: so subtle UN and the Security Council: Will the Ibrahimi mission succeed? Can superpowers influence regional emerging powers?
Syria, a Civil War? You have to acknowledge that there is a majority in this country!!! Azmi Bishara Syria is a complex mosaic Is the regime an alawi or an Assad family regime? The map of the uprising: big cities against country side Why Damascus and Aleppo were late to move? Why there was no strong uprising in the Alawi, Druze, Ismaeli and Christian areas? Why the regime didn t shoot on the Kurds? Where the tribes stand?
Syria? Religious, Regional and ethnic identities
Syria, regional interdependence of the local mosaic
Syrian Arab Republic, or just Syria?
Syria, a Sectarian/Civil War? The Army is ideological! Why the army did not side with the uprising? Ideological army = alawi army? Are Sunni population a majority? What is the aim of uprising/revolution? Replacing a State by another? Local Syrians/emigrant Syrians divide?
Syria divided
The Battle of Hauran
The Battle of Aleppo Katma Tell Rifaat Marae Anadan Aleppo
The Battle of Damascus
The Battle of Ras Al Ain
Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution Formulating Future : what is common? Identity/religion/ ethnicity Can there be a democracy without a State? Punishment and/or Reconciliation: what is transitional justice? Preserving independent will: Can Syria crisis be solved without constraining regional powers? Can non-democratic people/countries help building democracy? Is there an Arab Spring?