Country Profile. Ethiopia

Transcription

1 Country Profile Ethiopia November 2011

2 The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright 2011 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Country Profiles Series Editor J. J. Messner Country Profile Written by Colston Reid The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CCPPR11ET (Version 11R) Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C T: F: The Fund for Peace

3 Profile Ethiopia Pressures Capacity Numbers Combined Failed States Index Score Failed States Index Rank Average Indicator Score Year-on-Year Core Average Score Core Rank Capacity Minus Pressures th th -6.1 Maximum 120 of 177 countries Maximum 10 Improvement Maximum 10 of 177 countries Pressures Assessment: Alert Capacity Assessment: Weak High Pressure Low Capacity Outlook Ethiopia enjoys the status of one of the most stable countries in Africa. Headed by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, his government has won support from the west for working to curb their reliance on foreign aid. However, opposition protesters content that the regime is intolerant to dissent. Ethiopia has one of the fastest growing non-oil based economies in Africa, nonetheless it is still heavily dependent on agriculture which is often affected by drought. Tensions with Eritrea persist since it broke away from Ethiopia is Neither side acknowledges the border established during the peace talks. As a key U.S. ally in the region, Ethiopian troops participated in joint operations during 2006 to oust Islamists militants in control of Southern Somalia. Their formal presence in the country ended in Comparative Statistics Population GDP Per Capita (PPP) Life Expectancy Median Age 82,102,000 US$ 1, years 16.8 years China 1,339,000,000 Qatar US $ 91,379 Japan 82.6 years Japan 44.6 years Seychelles 86,500 D.R. Congo US $ 319 Swaziland 39.6 years Uganda 15.0 years 3 The Fund for Peace

4 Indicators Social, Economic & Political Pressures Social & Economic Indicators Demographic Pressures Refugees and IDPs Group Grievance Human Flight Uneven Development Poverty and Decline th 20th 21st 37th 36th 29th Poor Poor Poor Weak Poor Weak Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Steady Worsened Steady Improved Improved Improved 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Steady Worsened Worsened Steady Steady Steady Recent Improvements and Declines Food security is the primary challenge facing Ethiopia as it endeavors to maintain agricultural production in the face of severe annual droughts. As Africa s second most populous country providing adequate education and healthcare in a climate of rising birthrates and declining income is a constant struggle. Ethiopia s economy is very fragile. Low on foreign exchange and facing another bout of inflation Ethiopia is struggling to attract foreign investment to support infrastructure development and social programs. Ethiopia s Demographic Pressure score improved slightly as foreign aid has been increased to respond to food shortages. Many diseases, such as cholera which has killed more than 1,500 people this year, can be traced to the lack of a coordinated program on public sanitation. The Refugee and IDP score increased as Ethiopia attempts to accommodate a rising number of refugees from Kenya, Sudan and Somalia. The Group Grievance score decreased slightly as religious violence remains constant. Human flight improved marginally due to a renewed commitment to poverty reduction. Ethiopia s Uneven Development score improved due to a construction boom which has increased the availability of jobs across all regional centers. The Poverty and Decline score also improved as efforts to increase energy availability continue. The devaluation of the Birr coupled with the sudden increase in food prices, including tea and coffee made it difficult for millions of Ethiopians to make ends meet as the inflation doubled in The Fund for Peace

5 Ethiopia Political & Military Indicators Legitimacy of the State Public Services Human Rights Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention rd 26th 27th 29th 17th 32nd Weak Poor Poor Weak Poor Poor Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Steady Worsened Steady Steady Steady Steady 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Steady Worsened Worsened Worsened Steady Worsened Recent Improvements and Declines Legitimacy of the State improved slightly as the government was able to reign in opposition protesters and prevent outbreaks of political violence. Public Services slipped as providing health care and education remain a major challenge. Because of limited enforcement of traffic laws and unmaintained roads, Ethiopia has the highest rate of traffic fatalities per vehicle in the world. Ethiopia is one of the world's most restrictive countries for media with the largest number of exiled journalists. The Security Apparatus score increased slightly due to skirmishes along Ethiopia s border with Kenya and Somalia. The Factionalized Elite score remained high and constant as members of the Ethiopian People s Revolutionary Democratic Front continue to receive special privileges and greater influence marks the twentieth year in power for Ethiopia s ruling party, however dissent is on the rise in protest of government mismanagement and an increasingly poor human rights record. Security along Ethiopia s border with Kenya has become a concern as cross border incursions are becoming more frequent. Ethiopia s Human Rights score improved as the government works to strengthen democratic institutions. 5 The Fund for Peace

6 Pressures and Capacities Trends and Comparisons Multi-Year Pressures Trend Failed States Index (Pressures) Total Score The large chart represents a magnified portion of the full scale, shown below: Alert Warning Multi-Indicator Comparison Pressures Pressures better than average Pressures worse than average Finland: Best Performer Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Capacities Capacity lower than average Capacity higher than average Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Austria: Best Performer A visual representation of the proportion of the total pressure and capacity scores that are contributed by each individual indicator. Each color within the bar chart corresponds to the colors of the 12 Failed States Index (pressure) indicators and the 7 Core 5+2 (capacity) indicators. Guidelines are also provided to demonstrate the average score for all 177 countries, as well as the extremes of best and worst performers. 6 The Fund for Peace

7 Ethiopia State Institutions and Civil Society: Core 5+2 Indicators Leadership Military Police Judiciary Civil Service Civil Society Media Poor Poor Weak Poor Weak Poor Poor Pressures v. Capacity Plot Comparison Low Capacity High Capacity Switzerland Norway Finland Ireland Japan France Argentina Estonia Mongolia This chart compares pressures with capacities by comparing the Failed States Index score (representing pressures) with an average indicator score for the Core 5+2 (representing capacity). Note that the capacity score is an average, as not all countries have been assessed for all Core 5+2 indicators as yet, due to insufficient data. (Note that the capacity measures are still under development.) Haiti Afghanistan Somalia Low Pressure High Pressure 120 Cyprus Libya Paraguay Israel Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Georgia Ethiopia Myanmar C.A.R. Iraq Zimbabwe Sudan Chad D.R.C. Pressures v. Capacities Flat Comparison A representation of capacities vs. pressures based on the difference between average capacity indicator score and average pressure indicator score. Higher Pressure, Lower Capacity Ethiopia Lower Pressure, Higher Capacity 7 The Fund for Peace

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