MRV Meeting with UN-REDD Countries and GEO-FCT National Demonstrator Measurement Reporting and Verification, Guadalajara-Mexico, 22-24 June 2010
UN Doc FCCC/SBSTA/2008/6 (SB 28 Bonn, June 2008) Annex III Main methodological issues; 2. Reference emissions levels: Means to establish reference emission levels, based on historical data, taking into account, inter alia, trends, starting dates and the length of the reference period, availability and reliability of historical data, and other specific national circumstances.
REDD-UNFCCC Expert Meeting on Methodological Issues relating to Reference Emission Levels (Bonn, 23-24 March 2009): The reference emissions level (REL) is the amount of gross emissions from a geographical area estimated within a reference time period (REDD). The reference level (RL) is the amount of net/ gross emissions and removals from a geographical area estimated within a reference time period (Conservation, SMF, EFCS).
UN Doc FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1 (COP 15 Copenhagen, December 2009) 4/CP.15 Methodological guidance for activities REDD+; Para 1. (d), point (i). Use a combination of remote sensing and ground-based forest carbon inventory approaches for estimating, as appropriate, anthropogenic forest-related greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks, forest carbon stocks and forest area changes
ACTIVITY DATA EMISSION FACTOR EMISSION ESTIMATE = X CO 2 equivalent Modified from: Alberto Sandoval, Rosa Ramon UNREDD general and MRV framework COP, 2010
Activity data: Land cover change: Landsat 5, Landsat 7 ETM+ (1990, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009) Emission/Removal Factor: National Forest Inventory (NFI) Sample Plots 1990-1996 (2.735 cluster plots) 1996-2000 (1.145 cluster plots) 2000-2006 ( 485 cluster plots) 2006-2010 (2.997 cluster plots) Redesign NFI
Remark: Landsat 7 ETM+ coverage for the whole Indonesia (217 scene)
No. MoF Land Cover Class 1 PRIMARY DRYLAND FOREST 2 SECONDARY DRYLAND FOREST 3 PRIMARY SWAMP FOREST 4 SECONDARY SWAMP FOREST 5 PRIMARY MANGROVE FOREST 6 SECONDARY MANGROVE FOREST 7 PLANTATION FOREST 8 DRYLAND AGRICULTURE 9 SHRUB-MIXED DRYLAND FARM 10 TRANSMIGRATION AREA 11 RICE FIELD 12 ESTATE CROPPLANTATION 13 GRASSLAND 14 BUSH/SHRUB 15 SWAMP 16 SWAMP SHRUB 17 SETTLEMENT AREA 18 BARREN LAND 19 FISH POND 20 AIRPORT 21 MINING AREA 22 WATER 23 CLOUD COVERED No. IPCC Class 1 Forestland 2 Cropland 3 Grassland 4 Wetland 5 Settlement 6 Other Land
Unit: million hectare LAND COVER FOREST AREA NON-FOREST AREA TOTAL Area (ha) % Area (ha) % Area (ha) % FORESTED 92,328 (Primer=43,801, LOA=48,526) 49% 8,412 4% 100,740 54% NON FORESTED 40,071 21% 46,976 25% 87,047 46% TOTAL 132,399 71% 55,388 29% 187,787 100% Source: Satellite Images of Landsat 7 ETM+ year 2005/2006 (217 scenes) Interpretation on 2007, Published on 2008
International interest Non Forested Non Forested Non Forestland (30%) MoF authority Forestland (70%) Forested Forested Others ministries Authority: MoA, MoE, Mining, privates. RAS, MoF
4.00 3.50 3.51 3.00 2.83 2.50 2.00 1.87 1.50 1.37 1.08 1.17 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.68 0.78 0.30 0.76 0.41-1990-1996 1996-2000 2000-2003 2003-2006 Seluruh Indonesia Di dalam Kawasan Hutan Di luar Kawasan Hutan (APL) Deforestation Rate 1990-1996 1996-2000 2000-2003 2003-2006 Projection Indonesia 1.87 3.51 1.08 1.17 1.125 Forest Land 1.37 2.83 0.78 0.76 0.770 Non Forest Land 0.50 0.68 0.30 0.41 0.355
Unit: thousand hectare Year Total Land Forested Forested Land in State Forest Plantation Forest Natural Forest Primary Forest Log Over Area Non Forested Area Forested Land in Outside State Forest 1990 187.785 132.750 114.040 2.101 130.649 61.122 69.526 55.035 18.710 1996 187.785 121.530 106.672 2.836 118.694 55.529 63.164 66.255 14.858 2000 187.785 107.490 96.948 3.463 104.027 48.668 55.359 80.295 10.542 2003 187.786 104.250 94.608 4.065 100.185 46.870 53.315 83.537 9.642 2006 187.786 100.740 92.328 4.817 95.923 44.876 51.047 87.047 8.412 2010 187.786 96.240 89.462 5.609 90.631 42.400 48.230 91.547 6.778 2015 187.786 90.615 85.423 6.599 84.016 39.306 44.710 97.172 5.192 2020 187.786 84.990 81.985 7.589 77.401 36.211 41.190 102.797 3.005 2025 187.786 79.365 77.081 8.579 70.786 33.116 37.670 108.422 2.283 2030 187.786 73.740 71.193 9.569 64.171 30.021 34.149 114.047 2.547 2035 187.786 68.115 65.304 10.559 57.556 26.927 30.629 119.672 2.810 2040 187.786 62.490 59.416 11.549 50.941 23.832 27.109 125.297 3.074 2045 187.786 56.865 53.528 12.539 44.326 20.737 23.589 130.922 3.337 2050 187.786 51.240 47.639 13.529 37.711 17.643 20.068 136.547 3.601 2055 187.786 45.615 41.751 14.519 31.096 14.548 16.548 142.172 3.864 2060 187.786 39.990 35.862 15.509 24.481 11.453 13.028 147.797 4.128 Note: -Data for 2010 and up projected by 1990 to 2006 data with assumption that deforestation rate is 1,125 million Ha/year. -Area calculation based on Landsat interpretation.
Sumetra Kalimantan Papua Total (ha) 7.197.850 5.765.961 8.109.922 21.073.733 Source: Reducing carbon emissions from Indonesia s peat lands. Interim Report of a Multi-Disciplinary Study December 2009 (BAPPENAS, 2009)
2003 1998 2000 1999 1996 1997 2001 2005
Unit: thousand hectare Sum of Non Year Shrub Crop land Grass land Wetland Settlement Otherland Forested Area 1990 5.851 8.754 11.767 3.372 144 3.229 33.116 1996 7.162 10.715 14.404 4.128 176 3.952 40.536 2000 6.581 9.847 13.237 3.793 161 3.632 37.252 2003 6.748 10.096 13.572 3.889 166 3.724 38.195 2006 7.467 11.171 15.017 4.304 183 4.121 42.263 2010 8.797 13.161 17.692 5.070 216 4.855 49.791 2015 9.843 14.727 19.797 5.674 241 5.432 55.714 2020 11.225 16.795 22.576 6.470 275 6.195 63.536 2025 11.913 17.824 23.960 6.866 292 6.574 67.429 2030 13.116 19.623 26.378 7.560 322 7.238 74.236 2035 13.714 20.518 27.581 7.904 336 7.568 77.621 2040 14.871 22.250 29.910 8.572 365 8.207 84.174 2045 15.447 23.111 31.067 8.903 379 8.525 87.433 2050 16.594 24.826 33.373 9.564 407 9.157 93.922 2055 16.986 25.413 34.162 9.790 417 9.374 96.142 2060 17.665 26.430 35.528 10.182 433 9.749 99.987
Juta ha 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 y = 1E+14e -0.013x R² = 0.8891 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 y = 4E+15e -0.015x R² = 0.9403 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Degradasi rendah Low Degradation Degradasi tinggi High Degradation Exponencial (Degradasi Expon. (Low Degradation) rendah) Exponencial Expon. (High (Degradasi Degradation) tinggi)
Forest Non Forest DEFORESTATION DEFORESTASI vs. DEGRADASI FOREST DEGRADATION I (100-80%) II (80-60%) III (60-40%) IV (40-20%) V (20-0%)
Dumai, Riau 2000/09/05
Dumai, Riau 2005/07/29
ZOOM DEGRADASI
Forest Mean of AGB (ton/ha) Mean of Carbon AGB (ton/ha) Mean of CO2e (ton/ha) Primer (p) 390,7 195,4 716,9 Sekunder (s) 339,2 169,6 622,4 KSA/ Conservation Forest 434,2 217,1 796,7 KSAp 456,9 228,5 838,5 KSAs 388,7 194,3 713,2 HL/ Protection Forest 378,1 189,0 693,7 HLp 407,5 203,8 747,8 HLs 355,3 177,7 652,0 HPK/ Converted Production Forest 331,7 165,8 608,6 HPKp 332,7 166,4 610,6 HPKs 316,4 158,2 580,6 HP/ Production Forest 312,1 156,1 572,7 HPp 367,7 183,9 674,8 HPs 323,1 161,5 592,8 HPT/ Limited Production Forest 371,2 185,6 681,1 HPTp 394,7 197,4 724,3 HPTs 366,5 183,3 672,6 APL/ Non Forest Area 271,9 136,0 499,0 APLp 293,1 146,6 537,9 APLs 271,8 135,9 498,8
LF/HD HF/HD HF/LD LF/LD Note: Low-High Forest-Deforestation
Total Hotspot 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Total Hutan Non Hutan
Peta Sebaran Hotspot 2000 27
Peta Sebaran Hotspot 2006 28
Forest Fires
Deforestatation rate: based on average rate 1990-2006 1,125 million ha/year Future Deforestation: Flat (until 2020) Forest Degradation: logging activities = 626.000 ha/year Biomass Conversion and Expansion Factors/BCEF) = 1,67 (IPCC, 2006) Biomass growth average in natural forest = 2,9 ton/ha or 5,32 ton/ha CO 2 e (NFI, dari 2 measurement period) Biomass growth average in plantation forest 20,0 ton/ha or 36,7 ton/ha CO 2 e (IPCC, 2006)
CO2e (Giga Ton) 1.4 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.66 0.69 0.71 0.4 0.2 0 2010 2015 2020 Emisi Emission Tahunan Serapan Carbon Tahunan stock (BAU) TAHUN
Should be measured. May be reduced by increasing plot numbers and distribution (based on forest stratification). IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/index.html
REL/RL (provincial or district) should be set based on a quota from national RL. Local circumstances should be used to address wide participation and equity (Indigenous people). Public Consultation & Multi-stakeholder communication. Leakage (International, National, Sub-National, Project). Regulation: in progress.
Ruandha Agung Sugardiman ra.sugardiman@gmail.com