US Politics: January 5, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-97-73 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson --1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1- January 5, 17 / US Politics: www.
. 1. 17. 15. 1. 13. 11... 7... Figure 1., REAL GDP, & RECESSIONS (trillions of 9 dollars, saar, ratio scale) E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E Q3. 1. 17. 15. 1. 13. 11... 7... 3. 3. 1. 7 9 51 53 55 57 59 1 3 5 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 1 3 5 7 9 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 1. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Commerce Department. Figure. & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (percent, weekly) E 1 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E 1 1 1 1 1 / 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 1 / January 5, 17 / US Politics: www.
1 Figure 3. & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (percent, weekly) E 1 1 E E E E E E 1 1 1 5 55 5 57 5 59 1 3 5 7 9 7 71 7 73 7 75 7 77 7 79 1 Note: Vertical lines (E) are presidential election dates. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure. & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (percent, weekly) 15 E E E E E E E E E 15 5 5 3 5 7 9 9 91 9 93 9 95 9 97 9 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Source: Federal Reserve Board. / Page / January 5, 17 / US Politics: www.
5 15 15 155 5 Figure 5. & S&P 5 INDEX (ratio scale) /3 5 15 15 155 5 95 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E 95 5 5 35 35 5 1 3 5 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 1 3 5 7 9 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 5 Source: Standard & Poor s. 5 5 35 35 5 15 5 Figure., S&P 5 INDEX, & BEAR MARKETS (ratio scale, weekly) E E E E E E E E E E E E E E /3 5 5 35 35 5 15 5 5 5 5 1 3 5 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 1 3 5 7 9 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 5 Note: Vertical lines (E) are presidential election dates. Shaded areas denote bear market declines of % or more. Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 3 / January 5, 17 / US Politics: www.
53 3 153 3 Figure 7. S&P 5 INDEX* ELECTION DAY TO YEAR-END BEFORE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 19-now (average =.%, ratio scale) Dec 53 3 153 3 53 53 Hoover Truman Johnson Roosevelt Eisenhower Reagan Bush I Kennedy Nixon Carter Clinton Bush II Obama Trump 3 195. -. -9.. 5. -.5.7. 5..9 3. -7. -.. 193 1935 19 195 195 1955 19 195 197 1975 19 195 199 1995 5 15 3 * S&P 5 shown as end-of-month daily data through /31/1. Note: Shaded areas are from Election Day to yearend prior to the first term of presidents. Data above timeline are percentage changes in S&P 5 over these periods using daily closing prices. Source: Standard & Poor s. Page / January 5, 17 / US Politics: www.
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