The Potential for Renewable Energy (Solar PV) for the Real Estate Sector in Ghana Rockson Dogbegah Chairman, Berock Ventures Ltd. Chartered Building and Civil Engineering Contractors
Presentation Outline Ghana: Economic outlook Energy sector Formal real estate sector Opportunities and Challenges for developing Solar PV in Ghana
Ghana: Outlook Capital Total Area (km2) Accra 238,540 Population 26,786,598 (2014) GDP (current US$) GDP Per Capita (current US$ Access to Electricity (% of population) Energy Imports Net (% of energy use) 38,616,536,131.65 (2014) 1,441.64 (2014) 64.06 (2015) 1.63 (2012) Source: World Bank
ENERGY SECTOR
Ghana s National Energy Context The state still owns both electricity distribution companies, as well as the electricity transmission company, but opening up to the private sector; Ghana s energy sector vision is to develop an Energy Economy to secure a reliable supply of high quality energy services for all sectors of the Ghanaian economy and also to become a major exporter of oil and power; The Government of Ghana has defined key targets for the energy sector: - Universal access to electricity by 2016; - 5000MW of generation capacity by 2015; - Achieve 10% contribution of renewable energy (excluding large hydro) in electricity generation mix by 2020;
Percentage (%) Percentage (%) Main Sources of Energy for Lighting 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Main Sources of Lighting Main Sources of Lighting All Region (2000) All Regions (2010) Urban Rural Source: Energy Commission
Installed Electricity Generation Capacity (End of December, 2014) Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%) 1800 60,00% 1600 1400 50,00% 1200 40,00% 1000 800 30,00% 600 20,00% 400 200 10,00% 0 Hydro Thermal Renewables (VRA Solar) 0,00% Hydro Thermal Renewables (VRA Solar) Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%) Source: Energy Commission
FORMAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR
Ghana Real Estate Developers Association (GREDA) Membership Number Registered 250 Active 150 Inactive 100 Source: GREDA
Real Estate Types 60,00% Housing Types Commercial Real Estate by Type 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% Residential 17% Shop 5% Industrial 3% 20,00% 10,00% Hotel/Hostel 20% Office 55% 0,00% 2000 2010 Source: Ghana Statistical Service (2010) Source: Karley (2009)
GREDA and Housing Statistics Housing Supply % GREDA 10% Ghanaians Living Abroad 65% Client Profile of GREDA Local Residents 27% Individuals 90% Foreign Residents 8% Source: Ayitey et al (2013) Source: Karley (2009)
Real Estate Statistics: Housing Number of Houses (1960-2010) 4000000 Rate of Increase in the Number of Housing (%) 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1 2 3 4 5 Year 1960 1970 1984 2000 2010 No. of Houses 636.189 945.639 1.204.395 2.181.975 3.392.745 No. of Houses 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1960-1970 1970-1984 1984-2000 2000-2010 Rate of Increase Source: Ghana Statistical Service (2010)
Shares of Houses built by Selected Real Estate Developers (2000 2006) Devtraco 9% Lakeside 7% Others 8% Regimanuel Gray 49% Trasacco Estates Development 7% State Housing - Takoradi 8% NTHC Properties Ltd 12% Source: Bank of Ghana (2007)
Opportunity & Challenges for Deployment of Solar PV in the Real Estate Sector
Absolutely & relatively underdeveloped sector!!! Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%) 1800 60,00% 1600 1400 50,00% 1200 40,00% 1000 800 30,00% 600 20,00% 400 200 10,00% 0 Hydro Thermal Renewables (VRA Solar) 0,00% Hydro Thermal Renewables (VRA Solar) Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%) Source: Energy Commission (2014)
Housing Supply, Potential Demand & Targeting for Solar PV Annual Supply (Urban) Estimate of Supply by Developers # (~10%)* Estimate of Supply by Individuals # (~90%) * 37,000 1 3,700 33,300 25,000 2 2,500 22,500 Existing housing stock for solar PV is ~3,392,745; Individuals supply the bulk of new housing; But, developers may provide economies of scale for solar PV; 25,000 40,000 3 2,500 4,000 22,500 36,000 Special marketing strategies needed to capture individual homeowners. Source: Amoa-Mensah (2003) 1 ; Mahama & Antwi (2006) 2 ; Karley (2009) 3 ; Ayitey et al (2010) * ; # Presenter s estimates
Energy projections for the Residential Sector The electricity demand of the residential sector is expected to exceed: 24,000 Gigawatt-hours for high economic growth, by 2020; The sectoral demand growth rate could be between 10 15 percent per annum if adequate electricity is made available. Government has indicated: Additional generation will come primary from Independent Power Producers (IPPs); Investing in renewable energy is critical in order to provide access to some of the remote communities and make it more sustainable in the medium-long term; Focus shall include investments in off-grid solutions for decentralized access. Source: Energy Commission
Strategic Plan for the Demand Sectors Residential Sector National goal is to achieve 100% universal electrification by 2020; Sixty (60) percent access is estimated for now; largely by grid. Strategic Targets To achieve 15% penetration of rural electrification by decentralised renewable energy complementation by 2015; expanding to 30% by 2020; To reduce the average electricity intensity per urban household by 50% by 2020; Decentralised renewable energy penetration is less than 1% at present. Source: Energy Commission
Strategic Plan for the Demand Sectors Commercial and Service Sector The objective is to reduce the energy consumption in general and wood fuel consumption in particular, by introducing energy efficiency programmes and cleaner energy alternatives. Strategic Targets To reduce electricity consumption of military and police barracks, residential; Halls and hostels of public tertiary institutions by 50% by 2015; To achieve 1% penetration of solar energy in hotels, restaurants and institutional kitchens using solar water heaters by 2015 and 5% penetration by 2020. Source: Energy Commission
Regulatory Environment, Policies & Incentives Regulatory Framework Favourable Energy Policy (2010); - includes the 10% target for the contribution of modern renewable energy to the country s energy sector by 2020; The Energy Sector Strategy & Development Plan (2012) articulates the vision of Ghana s energy sector: - ensure universal access to energy services and export of energy by 2016; - The development and subsequent use of decentralized electricity generation sources (including renewables) for remote off-grid communities. Renewable Energy Act 2011: Incentives Feed-in-tariff scheme offer guaranteed prices for electricity generated from renewable energy sources; Licensing regime for commercial renewable energy service providers; Purchase obligation under which power distribution utilities and bulk electricity consumers would be obliged to purchase a certain percentage of their energy required from electricity generated from renewable energy sources; Off-grid electrification promote minigrid and stand-alone renewable energy systems for remote off-grid locations. Renewable Energy Business Fund to promote public private partnerships
Some Outcomes: Renewable Energy Update Germany via GIZ supports the successful implementation of the Renewable Energy Act of 2011; Provisional licences so far issued for Renewable Energy electricity had risen to 62 from 36; Out of this 44 are for Solar photovoltaic (PV) Year No. of Licence Capacity (MW) 2010 36 3,905 2013 62 5,074 Solar PV 2010 22 2,155 2013 49 2,472
Open Market for Independent Power Producers (IPPs) Takoradi International Company (TICo) owned by the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA); Sunon Asogli Power Plant owned by the Shenzhen Group of China; CENIT owned by CENIT Energy Limited, a special purpose vehicle created to develop the IPP; Government Consent and Support Agreement for a fourth IPP, Cenpower, received Parliamentary approval in October 2012. Potential Areas for Solar PV Investment According to the Energy Commision of Ghana, it is cost competitive to encourage mass deployment of solar electricity for commercial applications like: - lighting in stores; - water pumping; - shaving off consumption in the commercial and services sector during peak hours; - as an energy conservation measure.
Chine-Ghana South-South Corporation on Renewable Energy Technology Transfer Introduction The project is part of Denmark s focus on South-South corporation to enable coherent corporation between China and countries in Africa; Promotion of the UN s Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) Initiative; Aim Project aims to effect off-grid community-based electrification; Increase the share of renewable energy and promote the productive use of energy. Project period: September 2014 August 2018; Project funded by the Danish Government to the tune of $2,720,000 (including $1,764,000 for Ghana; $956,000 for China); Stakeholders include: - UNDP China; - Energy Commission in Ghana; - Ministry of Science and Technology in China; - UNDP country offices in Ghana and China.
Other Solar PV Projects JICA supports with grants the improvement of: - the distribution system (new sub-transmission lines); - Solar PV systems (a 720kVA system at the Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon); Germany via KfW supports with a loan for the development of a 12MW Solar PV Project with VRA at three sites in the Upper West Region. - The first solar PV plant of 2.5MW was commissioned in 2013.
Rooftop Solar Programme The Energy Commission with its mandate to ensure the development and utilisation of the renewable resources has initiated the rooftop solar programme in an effort to contribute to mitigating the current power crisis; The objective of the programme is to reduce the daily national peak load by 200 MW through self-generation using solar photovoltaic (PV) technology; The programme is targeted at homes, offices, hospitality industry and small businesses; Subsidy available to improve affordability: - rebate to pay for part of the total cost of the solar system (solar PV modules) while the beneficiaries pay for the balance of system (BOS) components; - Option for beneficiaries to take a special bank loan to offset the payment commitments.
Current Housing Projects 4,720 on-going affordable housing units located in Accra, Kumasi, Koforidua, Tamale, and Wa; 5,000 Housing units by Sethi Realty at Kpone-Tema; 5,000 housing units by OAS Ghana Limited at Saglemi in the Greater Accra Region Proposed 10,000 housing units at Amansaman/Nsakina by Agu Resources Ltd.; 368 units by M/s Amandi Holding Ltd. for Ghana Navy. Source: Ministry of Work, Housing and Water Resources
Saglemi Housing Project (5,000 units)
Tamale Affordable Housing Project
Gated Estates Trasacco Valley
Trasacco Valley
Regimanuel Gray Ltd.
Devtraco Courts Ltd.
Lakeside Estates
Royal Palm Estates
Key Challenges in the Renewable Energy Sector High initial investment costs; Lack of favorable finance packages for consumers and solar energy entrepreneurs; Lack of well trained personnel at all levels; Lack of certification of installers and service providers; Poor business development capacity of key project implementers, managers, services providers and beneficiaries of renewable energy projects; Grid stability implications of intermittent solar power have not been fully studied in this country. - For instance, in 2012 the loss of 860 MW from Akosombo Generating Station led to a total system collapse of the national transmission grid culminating into a nationwide blackout. The effect of large injections of solar PV electricity on grid stability could have a similar effect. - Lack of long term planning and markets for solar energy technologies;
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