Recent Demographic and Labour Market Trends in Saskatchewan Presentation to: Regional Health Authority Boards March 3, 2009 Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor 444 19th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H1 306-522-5515 sasktrends@sasktel.net www.sasktrends.ca
Outline Recent Population Trends in Saskatchewan Statistics about the Saskatchewan population and the elements of population growth can be examined up to and including the middle of 2008. Sub-provincial Trends For sub-provincial regions and individual communities, the 2006 census is the most recent available population data. Labour Market Implications Demographics affects the delivery of health care but also the human resource requirements for the sector. These data are from Statistics Canada unless otherwise specified. The responsibility for the interpretation of the information and conclusions drawn remains with Sask Trends Monitor. March 3 2009 2
Recent Population Trends in Saskatchewan There are three interrelated factors that determine the size and structure of any population: - the natural growth rate (births less deaths); - migration to or from other countries; and - migration to or from other provinces. The figures from 2001 to 2008 are preliminary and will be revised when the results of the 2006 census are incorporated into the estimates.
Determinants of Population: Natural Growth 20 18 16 14 12 thousands Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) Net Births Deaths Births The natural growth rate in Saskatchewan is stabilizing after years of declines. The decline in the number of births is caused by lower fertility rates offset by an increase in the number of women in the child-bearing age groups. 10 8 6 4 Deaths The increase in the number of deaths arises because lower mortality rates are offset by more people in older age groups. 2 0 1977-1978 1980-1981 1983-1984 Natural Increase 1986-1987 1989-1990 1992-1993 1995-1996 1998-1999 2001-2002 2004-2005 2007-2008 In absolute terms, the net increase arising from natural growth is now about 3,000/year. July to June March 3 2009 4
Determinants of Population: International Migration 5 4 International Migration (Immigration and Emigration) thousands Net flow Immigration Emigration and other net outflow Immigration is increasing dramatically because of the new Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program although the numbers are still small relative to other provinces. 3 2 Immigration Emigration In absolute terms, the net increase from international migration (+3,500) is now more than the natural growth rate. 1 0 1977-1978 1980-1981 1983-1984 1986-1987 1989-1990 1992-1993 1995-1996 Net Flow 1998-1999 2001-2002 2004-2005 2007-2008 Retention of international immigrants has been a problem in the past. The retention of these newer immigrants is still unknown. July to June March 3 2009 5
Determinants of Population: Interprovincial Migration 45 40 35 thousands Interprovincial Migration Interprovincial migration has been and will probably continue to be the main determinant of the Saskatchewan population. 30 25 20 15 10 Incoming Outgoing Interprovincial migration rates are an order of magnitude larger than the other flows. 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Net Flow The number of persons leaving Saskatchewan hasn t changed appreciably but the number moving to Saskatchewan from other provinces has doubled in the past two years. -25 1977-1978 1980-1981 1983-1984 1986-1987 1989-1990 1992-1993 1995-1996 1998-1999 2001-2002 2004-2005 2007-2008 July to June March 3 2009 6
Total Provincial Population 1,040 1,030 1,020 thousands Total Provincial Population The net effect of all the population flows has been, until recently, a downward trend in the provincial population. 1,010 1,000 990 980 The reversal in interprovincial migration together with the increase in immigration has added nearly 20,000 persons since 2006. 970 960 950 940 930 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 as of July: March 3 2009 7
Interprovincial Migration: Origins & Destinations North BC 2002-03 2007-08 Net Interprovincial Flows Preliminary figures for 2007-08 suggest that the turnaround in interprovincial migration is largely because of a reversal in the net flow to/from Alberta. Alta Man Ont Que Atlantic Rather than losing 4,000 people on a net basis, we are now gaining 5,200: outgoing = 11,200, incoming = 16,400. There has also been a significant increase in the number of people moving to Saskatchewan from Ontario. -6,000-4,000-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 March 3 2009 8
Summary The long term trend in Saskatchewan of a net outflow of people to other provinces reversed abruptly in 2007 and 2008. This was accompanied by an increase in the number of immigrants moving to the province. These two flows were sufficient to overcome a declining natural growth rate and the population is increasing again. It is too soon to tell if this is a temporary aberration, the start of a long term trend, or a combination of the two. March 3 2009 9
Sub-provincial Trends These are community-level data from the Statistics Canada Census
Long Term Trends by Community Type Average Annual Population Increase, 1986 to 2006 Cities 0.2% This figure shows the long term (20-year) population growth per year according to the legal definition of the community in 2006. Towns Villages* RMs North Reserves** -1.4% -1.0% -0.5% 0.5% 2.8% The more urban the community, the more likely it is to be growing or at least declining more slowly. Although there are a couple of exceptions, the bedroom communities around Regina and Saskatoon are the only towns showing growth over the long term. Provincial Total -0.2% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% * including recreational villages ** excluding the North Reserves and the Far North are an exception they are growing in spite of their rural character. March 3 2009 11
Recent Trends by Community Type Average Annual Population Increase, 2001 to 2006 Cities 0.2% The trend in the most recent five years is remarkably similar to the long term one. Towns -0.6% Villages* -1.2% RMs -1.4% North 0.1% Reserves** 2.1% Provincial Total -0.2% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% * including recreational villages ** excluding the North March 3 2009 12
Long Term Trends by Major Urban Area Average Annual Population Increase, 1986 to 2006 Saskatoon CMA Regina CMA 0.2% 0.7% These figures count the population in the surrounding RM or bedroom community as part of the urban centre. Prince Albert CA Moose Jaw CA North Battleford CA -0.5% -0.6% -0.0% Over the long term, Lloydminster, Regina, and Saskatoon are the only major urban areas with population growth. Yorkton CA Swift Current CA Estevan CA -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% Lloydminster (SK) CA All other locations -0.9% 0.2% CMA = census metropolitan area CA = census agglomeration Grand Total -0.2% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% March 3 2009 13
Recent Trends by Major Urban Area Average Annual Population Increase, 2001 to 2006 Saskatoon CMA Regina CMA Prince Albert CA -0.3% 0.2% 0.7% The same general pattern is evident in the most recent five years, namely growth in Regina and Saskatoon and declines elsewhere except for Lloydminster. Moose Jaw CA North Battleford CA Yorkton CA Swift Current CA Estevan CA -0.8% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% 0.0% Although not shown here, the populations in the surrounding metropolitan areas is generally growing more quickly than the population in the city proper. Lloydminster (SK) CA 0.5% All other locations -1.0% Grand Total -0.2% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% March 3 2009 14
2001 to 2006 Growth, Southern Saskatchewan Saskatoon Hum boldt Population Change from 2001 to 2006 (provincial average = -1.1%) 5% or more Increased less than 5% Declined less than 5% Declined more than 5% Yorkton Melville Swift Current Moose Jaw Regina Weyburn Estevan March 3 2009 15
2001 to 2006 Growth, Northern Saskatchewan Cold Lake Population Change from 2001 to 2006 (provincial average = -1.1%) 5% or more Increased less than 5% Declined less than 5% Declined more than 5% Flin Flon Lloydminster Prince Albert North Battleford Melfort Saskatoon Humboldt March 3 2009 16
The Relationship between Population and Households 1,200 Households (Dwellings) and Populations, Saskatchewan thousands Population 4.0 We often hear that the census figures must be wrong because they show a population decline in a community even when there is a lot of new homes being built. 1,000 800 600 400 200 3.4 3.1 Dwellings 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 Persons per Household 2.4 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 These two trends are not incompatible population can decline even as the number of dwellings or households increases. For example, the number of dwellings in Saskatchewan increased by 2% from 2001 to 2006 even as the population declined. Average household size has dropped from 2.8 persons to 2.4 persons in the last twenty years. 0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 1.0 March 3 2009 17
Summary In Saskatchewan, as in the rest of the world, there is a longterm trend toward the urbanization of the population. It is too soon to tell, but if past trends are any indication then the recent growth in the provincial population will be concentrated in Regina and Saskatoon. March 3 2009 18
Implications for the Labour Market The demographic trends have an impact on the delivery of health care but they also have an impact on the labour market the people who deliver the services.
Age Distribution in Saskatchewan, 2008 Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2008 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Generation Y 8-27 years of age born 1981 to 2000 Baby Boomers 43-62 years of age born 1946 to 1965 2 Generation X 0 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 March 3 2009 20
Average Retirement Age 68 66 64 62 60 Average Retirement Age (Canada) For those in the public sector (broadly defined to include health and education as well as government proper), the average retirement age in 2008 was 59 years. Private sector paid workers tend to work three years longer. The self-employed still retire at age 65. 58 56 54 52 Public Sector Private Sector Self-employed 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 There is evidence of a slight upward trend since the turn of the decade. In 2008, 54% of those Saskatchewan residents 60 to 64 years of age were working compared with 50% in 2003. March 3 2009 21
Age Distribution Revisited 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2008 Primary Labour Market Age Group 25 to 59 Years The labour market will be changing in the near future because the oldest of the baby boomers are now nearing normal retirement age. Even if the boomers don t retire, the impact of a larger number of older workers mixed with a growing number of younger ones will have implications for human resources. 2 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 March 3 2009 22
Age Structure: Labour Market 18 16 Estimated Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2008 thousands Within ten years, the peak of the baby boomer generation reaches normal retirement age and exit the labour force, perhaps permanently. 14 12 10 8 6 4 Aboriginal non-aboriginal Primary Labour Market Age Group 25 to 59 Years In their place is a surge of young adults, many of whom are Aboriginal. It is too soon to tell what the effect of the current economic turmoil will be on normal retirement patterns. 2 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 March 3 2009 23
Labour Market Statistics for the Saskatchewan Health Care Sector These statistics are from Statistics Canada s monthly Labour Force Survey. The population living on Reserve is not included in this survey. The health sector includes: hospitals and special care homes; dentist and physician offices; labs and other diagnostic services; ambulances; home care; and social assistance services such as family services.
Age Group and Gender 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Age of Health Sector Workers, Saskatchewan, 2008 Other Sectors Health Care Health care workers are overwhelmingly female 85% compared with 41% in other sectors. There is a cluster of health care workers in the 45 to 59 age group and relatively few under 30 years of age or older than 65. Four out of ten (41%) have been with their current employer for at least ten years compared with 33% for those working in other sectors. 0% Under 25 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 plus March 3 2009 25
Hours of Work 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Weekly Hours of Work for Health Care Sector Workers, (actual at main job), 2008 Other Sectors Health Care None Under 30 30 to 40 More than 40 In the health care sector 9% are self-employed compared with 20% in other sectors. 12% are in temporary or casual positions, the same as in other sectors. 9% work in two jobs simultaneously, the same as in other sectors. Two thirds (66%) are union members compared with 30% in other sectors. 41% work in a large establishment (100+ employees) compared with 24% in other sectors. 21% are part-timers compared with 17% in other sectors. March 3 2009 26
Completed Education 60% 50% 40% 30% Formal Education for Health Care Sector Workers, Saskatchewan, 2008 Other Sectors Health Care The vast majority of workers are postsecondary graduates even though a surprisingly high proportion (27%) have no post-secondary education. The proportion who are post-secondary graduates has increased from 67% in 1998. 20% 10% 0% Grade 12 or less Certificate or diploma Degree March 3 2009 27
Wage Rates $23 $22 $21 $20 $19 $18 $17 Average Hourly Earnings (paid workers only) Adjusted for Inflation, Saskatchewan constant $2008 Health care Other sectors Average hourly earnings (among paid workers only) were $22.02 in 2008 compared with $20.07 in other sectors. Wage rates have been growing more quickly than the rate of inflation since 2002. The gap between the health care sector and other sectors widened in the middle of the decade but it has narrowed more recently. $16 $15 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 March 3 2009 28
Summary Compared with other sectors, health care workers are more likely to be: in the 45 to 64 age group; women; in part-time positions; union members; working in a large establishment; in higher paying positions; and post-secondary graduates. The health care sector needs to be concerned about the aging of its labour force in the medium (10 years or so) term. March 3 2009 29
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