Demographic development in Kainuu

Transcription

1 Demographic development in Kainuu Kick off meeting Åre Demographic Nordic Council Project Jouni Ponnikas Regional Council of Kainuu

2 Content Development of regions in Finland and regional development of Kainuu Kainuu region basics Regional Council of Kainuu Educational structures and labor market of Kainuu: role of educational possibilities Outmigration of young people in Kainuu Population projections and targets of Kainuu LI

3 Development of regions in Finland and regional development of Kainuu

4 Development of regions in Finland Areas of highest population are decreasing Centralisation of permanent housing Most sparsely populated areas are losing permanent inhabitants Areas of sparsely population are increasing (Hätälä & Rusanen 2010)

5 Aging of population in Finland Blue areas: lot of people under 50 years old; especially areas near cities and rural close to urban areas Red areas on the map: over 67 % of the population are 50 years old or older; lot of employees will retire by the year 2025, especially areas in eastern Finland including Kainuu

6 Land use and Urban- Rural Typolog y in Europe (2011)

7 Kainuu region Region of Kainuu is situated in Eastern Finland Consists of nine municipalities: Hyrynsalmi, Kajaani, Kuhmo, Paltamo, Puolanka, Sotkamo, Suomussalmi, Ristijärvi and Vaala Land area ( km 2) comparable to Belgium in size; population around thousand Kainuu: Forest land: 1,75 milj hectares, Population: hectares of forest for every citizen Kainuu is well-known for its forests, nature, measurement technology and good opportunities for sports Regional Council of Kainuu

8 Kainuu Region. Population in Kainuu 2014: (total)

9 Population in Kainuu 2010 Hyrynsalmi: Kajaani: Kuhmo: Paltamo: Puolanka: Ristijärvi: Sotkamo: Suomussalmi: Vaala: Kainuu = (total, year 2010)

10 Kainuu: Population Density

11 Regional Council of Kainuu Regional Council of Kainuu is the region's statutory joint municipal authority; Kajaani, Sotkamo, Kuhmo, Ristijärvi, Suomussalmi, Hyrynsalmi, Paltamo,Vaala, Puolanka The council have two main functions laid down by law: 1) regional development and 2) regional land use planning. The council is the regions' key international actors and it is largely responsible for the EU's Structural Fund programmes and their implementation Regional Council of Kainuu

12 Organisation of the Regional Council of Kainuu 2013 Staff of the Regional Council of Kainuu, ca. 26 The Assembly of Regional Council (37) Regional Board (13) Inspection Board (5) Protection of Interests Regional Mayor Executive Board Administrative Services Administrative Manager Communications Shared with Kainuu Social and Health Care Joint Authority Land Use Planning Planning Director Regional Development Regional Development Director Business and Industrial Policy, Projects Development Director

13 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM IN KAINUU REGIONAL PLAN FUTURE VISION STRATEGY FOR DEVELOPMENT REGIONAL STRUCTURE The Ministry of Employment and the Economy (MEE) Finnish regional development aims REGIONAL PROGRAMME development actions REGIONAL MASTERPLAN years land use The Ministry of the Environment Finnish land use aims Strategies of municipalities Village, LAGs strategies Theme strategies like Rural or Russian IMPLEMENTATION PLAN land use in the municipalities Regional Council of Kainuu

14 Educational structures and labor market of Kainuu: role of educational possibilities

15 Employed in Kainuu and in Finland by industry and gender in Source: Statistics Finland Kainuu: Men are working more than women on forestry and agriculture, women mostly on public services, same as an average in Finland.

16 Employment and unemployment rates in Kainuu region and in Finland (Source: Statistics Finland 2011). Unemployment rate is same as average in Finland but the proportion of people out of workforce critically higher than average in Finland. 80,0 70,0 60,0 67,8 61,8 % 50,0 40,0 30,0 Employment rate (15-64 years), Finland Employment rate (15-64 years), KAINUU Unemployment rate, Finland Unemployment rate, KAINUU 20,0 10,0 9,0 8,4 0,

17 Population according to age (5- year) and gender in Kainuu region in 2010 (Source: Statistics Finland 2011). more than 85 years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years 5-9 years 0-4 years Women Men Inhabitants

18 Genders in different age groups in Kainuu When examining the gender distribution in Kainuu in smaller age groups (5-year) the unbalanced sex ratio structure can be noted clearly: There is a significant shortage of women starting from the 15 year old upwards. The biggest gaps in the numbers of men and women are in the age groups years, years and years.

19 Education by gender in Kainuu and in Finland Source: Statistics Finland (aged 15). Kainuu: Level of education lower than average in Finland, especially higher education level Finland Kainuu Kajaani subregion Kehys-Kainuu subregion Both genders Men Women no post-comprehensive education 33,0 33,6 32,6 secondary education 39,2 41,7 36,7 higher education 27,8 24,7 30,7 no post-comprehensive education 35,7 35,9 35,6 secondary education 43,0 46,0 40,0 higher education 21,3 18,2 24,4 no post-comprehensive education 33,4 33,5 33,3 secondary education 42,3 45,6 39,1 higher education 24,3 20,8 27,6 no post-comprehensive education 40,9 40,8 41,0 secondary education 44,5 46,8 42,1 higher education 14,6 12,4 16,9

20 Study places in Kainuu 2010 (Source: Joint Authority of Kainuu Region 2012) Before 2010 study places at all level; 2010 was the last year when new under graduate students start at the university, in Teacher Education. University study places have always been very restricted, only in one or two faculty. Level of education Number of study places Vocational school 950 Upper secondary school 558 University of Applied Sciences 400 University 60* *The last new undergraduate students in 2010 and ended in 2013

21 Outmigration of young in Kainuu

22 Outmigration of young in Kainuu After graduated primary school at the age of 16 young people do not yet leave Kainuu region in large scale. Situation changes after the pupils have graduated the upper secondary school. The number of study places in Kainuu is too small and supply too narrow for all young, who graduate from upper secondary school. The majority of secondary school graduates (altogether 535 graduates in 2010) in Kainuu are women and they are more eager to run for study places at the university level. In order to get a study place at university you have to move out from Kainuu and especially women do this.

23 Total net migration by age groups in Kainuu years , persons per year Age Regional Council of Kainuu / Jouni Ponnikas 23

24 Outmigration of young in Kainuu For those how have graduated the vocational school it is easier to find a job in Kainuu and stay in the region. This phenomenon keeps the level of education in Kainuu lower than the average in Finland. Young people have to move outside the Kainuu in order to study at the university and majority of them do not come back after they have graduated

25 Outmigration of young in Kainuu The own university is one common key character with the city regions positively developed and grown in Finland. Somehow developing the University of Applied Sciences and university activities via Kajaani university consortium are critical issues for the future of the region and for the possibilities of young people to stay in Kainuu. the Department of Teacher Education in Kajaani was the only place offering university education and it was closed at the summer of New masters degrees at the University of Applied Sciences are also very important for the future of Kainuu region.

26 Outmigration of young in Kainuu There is a lack of jobs for the highly educated in Kainuu. On the other hand there are difficulties to fill open vacancies for highly educated. This tells that it is not easy to attract experts and highly qualified to Kainuu. The lack of undergraduate studying places at the university level makes it difficult to find highly educated experts to open vacancies in Kainuu. At the same time there is high unemployment and bad recruiting problems! structural unemployment is a critical problem! Young women interviewed ( ) see Kainuu as a safe place for them and for their kids, at the same time they are very varried about the very restricted labour market and posibilities in Kainuu and about the missing udergraduate studying places at the university level. These are master forces that many times are the main reasons for young women`s outmigration

27 Population projection of Statistics Finland (2012), the sum of population growth goals of municipalities and population growth goal of Regional Council of Kainuu (2013) Statistic of Finland 2012 Regional Plan Objectives of municipalities 2013 Regional Council of Kainuu Persons e2015 e2020 e2025 e2030 e2035 Statistic of Finland Regional Plan Objectives of municipalities Regional Council of Kainuu Regional Council of Kainuu / Jouni Ponnikas 27

28 Population target of Kainuu Population target of Kainuu in 2035 is inhabitants with more young people and less elderly people What we need? More open job vacancies (public, private sectors: mining, bioeconomy, tourism etc.) More permanent education posibilities: university of applied sciences, university master programs these keeps young in Kainuu and attracts young to Kainuu also from outlands More young people more kids Active immigrant policy without immigrants population target is not possible We will formulate demographic strategy for Kainuu! For this we needs best practices and lessons learnt from other countries (like this Nordic Council project)! Regional Council of Kainuu / Jouni Ponnikas 28

29 SF 2013 SF 2035 RDP Population of Kainuu by age groups in 2013 (SF 2013), trend projection of Statistics Finland (SF 2035) and the preliminary population growth estimate of the Regional Development Plan 2035 in 2013 and Regional Council of Kainuu / Jouni Ponnikas 29

30 The retention and deletion of workforce by age groups in Kainuu Regional Council of Kainuu / Jouni Ponnikas 30

31 Population by age groups and sex in 2012 (Statistics Finland) Regional Council of Kainuu / Jouni Ponnikas 31

32 The estimate for population by age groups and sex for 2035 (Statistics Finland) Regional Council of Kainuu / Jouni Ponnikas 32