Reducing CO2 emissions from road transport how will EU legislation affect industry? Susanna Lindvall European Commission DG C.2 Transport & Ozone 13 September 2012
Outline CO2 from cars and vans CO2 from heavy duty vehicles The CO2 value in focus
The big picture! Road transport CO 2 emissions will need to continue to reduce
EU Goals Keeping average global temperature increase below 2 C confirmed as global objective Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 20-20-20-target : By 2020 EU should achieve: 20% reduction GHG emissions compared to 1990 20% share of renewable energy 20% energy efficiency
Context of 80-95% reduction EU emissions reduced by 16% between 1990-2009 EU on track towards the - 20% emission reduction target by 2020 Current policies would only lead to ca. - 40% GHG emissions by 2050
Road transport and climate goals Total transport = 25% of EU total CO2 emissions (road transport 85% of transport emissions) Transport is the only sector where emissions are increasing Indicative road transport reduction targets: - 2030: 20% reduction compared to 2008 levels - 2050: 60% reduction compared to 1990
International car emission standards 270 EU US-LDV Japan China Grams CO 2 per kilometer, normalized to NEDC 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 China baseline: 185 Japan baseline:131 1.9% annually US baseline: 219 EU baseline: 142 China 2015: 167 2% 110 annually 3.9% annually Japan 2020: 105 US 2025:107 90 EU 2020: 95 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 [1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles. [3] Annual rate is calculated using baseline actual performance and target values. Source: ICCT 4.7% annually
CO2 emissions standards (EU average fleet targets) Cars: 130 gco2/km by 2015 (phase-in from 2012) average fleet emissions at 135 gco2/km in 2011 16% reduction since 2007 (8% reduction 2000-2007) Vans: 175 gco2/km by 2017 (phase-in from 2014) average fleet emissions at 180 gco2/km in 2010
Commission proposal July 2012 EU average fleet targets by 2020: CARS: 95gCO2/km - 27% reduction compared with the 2015 target of 130g VANS: 147gCO2/km - 17% reduction compared with the 2017 target of 175g
Modalities for reaching 2020 targets Targets: Same relative reduction effort Low emitting vehicle incentive Eco-innovations Exemption for smallest manufacturers, derogations for small and niche OEMs Pooling
Are 2020 targets feasible? Reaching the 2020 targets will lead to an increase in development and production costs Costs are substantially lower than previously anticipated The technology needed is available Manufacturers and component suppliers have already invested Benefits to consumers and society as a whole from fuel savings and improved energy security
Setting targets beyond 2020 Uncertainty over technological potential and cost increases further into the future Many other factors uncertain, e.g. energy costs Further in the future it is increasingly difficult to determine with certainty the likely optimal level of future reductions = Conflict between certainty over optimal CO 2 reduction level and manufacturer planning certainty
Some key issues What should be the basis for the future Regulatory approach? Continue with a utility parameter? If so, which one mass, footprint? What should be the regulatory metric currently tank-to-wheel CO 2? What is the appropriate level of ambition? What about embedded emissions? What about diverging real world emissions from the test emissions?
Next steps Commission consultative Communication Different potential reduction pathways towards 2025 and 2030 New regulatory targets to be defined on the basis of consultations
Heavy Duty Vehicles and CO2 emissions About 6% of total EU Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions About 25% of total road transport emissions Freight transport (trucks) main source of HDV emissions
A truck is not a big car Huge variation in vehicles and use Lack of data on CO2 emissions Measurement of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from whole HDVs a priority and a bottleneck
Model MODEL Component testing: Engine Md Pe = P roll. +P air +P acc +P grad + P tr. + P aux +P cons. n = (v x 60 x I axis x I gear ) / (d x π) Driver model be rpm Fuel cons., CO 2 Fuel consumption map: a) steady state + WHTC correction factors measured on engine test bed (for engine families) Driving resistances, options: a) constant speed with torque measurement b) coast down tests Influence from different tire models: resistance values adapted to EC No 1222/2009 (absolute value, optional with correction factor from drum to road) Gear box, axis: transmission, η=f( ) Auxiliaries duty cycle, η=f( ) Transmission ratios, transmission losses OEM specific maps and default values Power demand from engine from a) generic P e for different technologies b) detailed simulation 18
Vehicle Segmentation and test cycles Total HDV classes: 18 truck classes 6 bus and coach classes In total 10 HDV CO 2 /fuel consumption test cycles: Bodies and trailers (influence aerodynamic drag): Standard bodies and trailers defined, with (Cd*A) measured for alternatives Simplifications need to be discussed Mission Heavy Trucks Long Haul Regional Delivery Urban Delivery Municipal Utility Construction Cycle Acronym LH RD UD MU CS Heavy Passenger Vehicles Heavy Urban HU Urban UR Suburban SU Interurban IU Coach CO All HDV Common Short Test Cycle CST 19
CO2 HDV strategy 2013: Policy options CO2 measurement + monitoring of data HDV CO2 and fuel consumption labelling Emission performance standards Economic instruments (emissions trading) Design/ performance requirements for components Measures targeting HDV purchase and use
Timeline Impact assessment end 2012 Adoption of a strategy mid 2013 Measurement methodology - Pilot testing of the simulation tool 2012-2013 - Objective: Monitoring of emissions 2014/2015
CO2 value in focus CO2 values are used as indicators for: CO2 performance standards National taxation schemes Financial incentives Consumer information
Are CO2 values credible? Significant deviations between CO2 emissions tested on the NEDC and in service emissions UNECE: World Light Duty Test Procedure - New driving cycle: representative of real world driving - New test procedure: strict testing conditions Review of CO2 labelling Directive: Commission proposal on new rules second half 2013
TACK!