Aviation & Climate Change Global Framework for addressing aviation CO 2 emissions ICAO DGCIC 2 16 18 June, 2010 _ Montréal Paul Steele Executive Director, ATAG On behalf of ACI, CANSO, IATA, ICCAIA,
Aviation is a key driver of social & economic development 2.2 Billion Passengers 32 Million Jobs 8% of Global GDP (US$ 3.5 Trillion) 2% of Global Man made CO 2 emissions Major driver of tourism and trade
Aviation emissions challenge CO 2 emissions from the global fuel burn of commercial airlines 1600 1400 Pre-recession ICAO forecast 1200 Post-recession IATA forecast Million tonnes CO 2 1000 800 600 400 2009F 593mT 2005 level 200 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
Our targets are ambitious 2010 2020 2050 1.5% p/a fuel efficiency Working towards CNG CNG from 2020 Implementation of global sectoral approach 50% reduction in net CO2 emissions over 2005 levels
Emissions reduction roadmap CO 2 emissions Business as usual emissions Gross emissions trajectory No action (schematic) -50% by 2050 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Emissions reduction roadmap CO 2 emissions Business as usual emissions Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Gross emissions trajectory Tech Ops Infra No action CNG 2020 (schematic) -50% by 2050 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Emissions reduction roadmap CO 2 emissions Business as usual emissions Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures Biofuels and additional technology Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Gross emissions trajectory Economic measures Tech Ops Infra No action Biofuels + add. Tech CNG 2020 (schematic) -50% by 2050 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Industry is united behind these targets
IATA AGM Resolution 1. Endorse efforts for global carbon emissions framework under ICAO 2. Ensure responsibility for meeting collective CNG 2020 target Equitably and fairly distributed Consider early action by airlines in advance of 2020 Level playing field amongst airlines Consider special needs of developing countries 3. ICAO 37 th Assembly: Agree global framework consistent with industry proposals
Monitoring and reporting agreed Robust and transparent monitoring and reporting of fuel & CO 2 Mandatory reporting by IATA airlines as from 2010 Data requirements Tonne kilometers Fuel consumption Alternative fuel use Carbon offsets
Industry 1.5% efficiency target CO 2 from commercial airline fuel burn 728 million tonnes of additional cuts required by 2020 to make -1.5% pa efficiency target Frozen technology at 2010 fuel efficiency 1100 1000 900 800 700 CO2 million tonnes 600 CO 2 500 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 400
Industry 1.5% efficiency target 12,000 new aircraft to buy at cost of $1.3 trillion 1400 1200 New aircraft deliveries Scheduled delivery of new jet aircraft New aircraft required for 'normal replacement' and forecast growth Number of aircraft 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Industry is playing its part
Governments have their part to play too Investments in ATM improvements e.g. NextGen, SESAR in R&D funding in technology
Our biggest opportunity is biofuels With the potential to reduce our carbon footprint by 80% Full certification is imminent Next step: scaling up and commercialisation
Governments have their part to play too Promotion of aviation biofuels R&D funding Pilot projects Fiscal & investment incentives Transport & energy policy
What is needed is a global approach
What is emerging is a fragmented approach
Aviation increasingly faced with Incoherent policies Double charging Cash grabs
Uncoordinated Patchwork ETS legislation EU NZ Proposals for ETS in: Australia South Korea USA Japan Direct Taxation UK Ireland Germany Double counting, cost and complexity George Soros 5% ticket tax proposal
The 37 th ICAO General Assembly is a unique opportunity for governments to agree on a global framework
.based on sound principles Emissions accounted for at global level Emissions accounted for once Consider special needs of developing countries Equal treatment of operators on routes Emissions addressed through combination of technology, operations, infrastructure and economic measures Open architecture access to global carbon markets /mechanisms Eventual revenues prioritised for reinvestment in aviation carbon reduction
While reflecting aviation realities World commercial air traffic (RTK) 60% based on Annex I 40% based in non Annex I 90% of traffic is provided by 33 countries 18 Annex I 15 non Annex I Non Annex I countries account for 4 out of 10 largest and 9 out of 20 largest aviation powers
Bridges must be built Available designs: Technology transfer Technical support Financial support Differentiated timing De minimis rules Implementation frameworks C B D R
Failure at ICAO will lead to governments taking more fragmented decisions
..which could question the orderly growth of civil aviation
Governments and industry must work together through ICAO Goals + 4 Pillar Strategy + Global Framework
to assure a sound sustainable future for aviation.
Aviation & Climate Change Global Framework for addressing aviation CO 2 emissions ICAO DGCIC 2 16 18 June, 2010 _ Montréal Paul Steele Executive Director, ATAG On behalf of ACI, CANSO, IATA, ICCAIA,