Changes in the Climate System and its Potential Impact on Natural Disasters The Need to Reassess Mitigation and Vulnerability Richard DiMaio MS Loyola University Institute of Environmental Sustainability
3 Key Points I Will Address Define Climate Change vs Climate Variability
3 Key Points I Will Address Define Climate Change vs Climate Variability Define Hazard, Natural Disaster and Natural Catastrophe
3 Key Points I Will Address Define Climate Change vs Climate Variability Define Hazard, Natural Disaster and Natural Catastrophe Discuss Adaptation vs Mitigation
Leave you with. Some regional predictions and how they fit in with the BIG PICTURE!
Two Big Questions?? Is the Climate Changing?...or is simply becoming more variable? Are natural disasters becoming more numerous or are they simply affecting more people due to population growth?
Two Follow-up Questions When does a hazard become a disaster? When does a disaster become a catastrophe?
Lets talk about Climate vs Weather!
January 2014 Global Temperature Anomalies
February 2014
March 2014
Greatest Surface Ice For So Late in the Winter Season!
What are some of the Components and interactions in the Climate System
The climate system
The Biosphere.Home to Living Things!
World Population Density
What we know Details of Atmosphere: Tropical Weather, Air masses, Different Climates of Cities Around the Globe
What we know Details of Atmosphere: Tropical Weather, Air masses, Different Climates of Cities Around the Globe Global Circulations within the Fluid Atmosphere and seasonal changes
In other words We know a great deal about the largeness of the earth and the systems that make it work. But not enough to understand how each component interacts with other when they began to change especially when we consider population growth and demands on the environment
World Population Now at 7.0 Billion!
UN Projections of Population Growth by 2100 varies from 16 billion to 10 billion
Coastal Population Of United States
From this information.. We can clearly determine that CLIMATE CHANGE which impacts coastal regions where POPULATION is growing most dramatically, produces the greatest CHALLENGES to the public and private sector when dealing with: PREPARATION, RESPONSE and RECOVERY!
There has been a shift a good shift!!! From discussing global warming to climate change!
If we continue to speak in terms such as: Global Warming It Remains Too Broad! When trying to teach local!
Otherwise..
Lets look at some examples of Global Temperatures 1880-2014
Nineteen of the twenty warmest years on record have occurred in the past 20 years. Except for 1998, the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2002.
However! Much of the last 15 years has experienced a GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS!...Which was not predicted
Land/Ocean Temperatures Aug 19 Global Data
Land/Ocean Temp Anomalies Aug 19 Global Data
Global Sea Surface Temps Aug 19
Global Sea Surface Anomalies Aug 19
The data is better than ever More coverage of data allows us to better analyze, predict and hopefully respond more effectively and efficiently than ever..
The data is better than ever More coverage of data allows us to better analyze, predict and hopefully respond more effectively and efficiently than ever..
Lets go back and discuss Climate Change! Is there a difference between Change and Variability?
The best way to observe changes in climate is to look at weather data or statistics
The best way to observe variability in climate is to look at weather patterns or seasonal trends
THEREFORE: Climate Change = Change of Long Term Statistics
Furthermore Climate Variability = Change of Long Term Patterns
What to do? We need lots of historical perspective!!!! We need to re-construct the past not easy!!! We need to define NORMAL and understand that we might be not completely correct!!!
Where are we so far.. Climate Change vs Climate Variability
Where are we so far.. Climate Change vs Climate Variability How much is natural and how much is related to human-induced actions
What we do know!!! The Earth s climate is changing!!! But not the same everywhere and in not the same way..
What we do know!!! The Earth s climate is changing. Temperatures are rising, snow and rainfall patterns are shifting, and more extreme climate events like heavy rainstorms and record high temperatures are already taking place
What we do know!!! The Earth s climate is changing. Temperatures are rising, snow and rainfall patterns are shifting, and more extreme climate events like heavy rainstorms and record high temperatures are already taking place
What we do know!!! The Earth s climate is changing. Temperatures are rising, snow and rainfall patterns are shifting, and more extreme climate events like heavy rainstorms and record high temperatures are already taking place
THIS IS WHERE WE DISCUSS LARGE SCALE WEATHER EVENTS THAT OCCUR INFREQUENTLY BUT CAN HAVE MAJOR ECONOMIC AND PERSONAL NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES
Natural Disasters
Natural Disasters They are part of the DYNAMIC EARTH! Some of us tend to live near certain natural hazards because that is where our home is! Others might not have a choice since that is where our family has lived for generations and our main source of survival is to live off the land
Natural Disasters They are part of the DYNAMIC EARTH! Some of us tend to live near certain natural hazards because that is where our home is! Others might not have a choice since that is where our family has lived for generations and our main source of survival is to live off the land
Natural Disasters They are part of the DYNAMIC EARTH! Some of us tend to live near certain natural hazards because that is where our home is! Others might not have a choice since that is where our family has lived for generations and our main source of survival is to live off the land.
Natural Disasters In well to do countries, it is somewhat easier to avoid certain hazards that can become DISASTROUS! In developing countries, this is not as easy and therefore, hazards BECOME disasters and if RESPONSE and RECOVERY are slow, disasters become CATASTROPHES!
Natural Disasters In well to do countries, it is somewhat easier to avoid certain hazards that can become DISASTROUS! In developing countries, this is not as easy and therefore, hazards BECOME disasters and if RESPONSE and RECOVERY are slow, disasters become CATASTROPHES!
Or maybe not!!
Produces a Disaster which becomes a Catastrophe!
What took so long?
Hurricane Katrina Aftermath
Some Terms To Know!
What is a Natural Hazard? A natural occurring phenomena that MAY endanger our property and physical wellbeing.
What is a Natural Disaster A natural disaster is an event in which the forces of nature claim human lives or destroy the output of human labor on a large scale.
What is a Natural Disaster vs Catastrophe Natural Catastrophe is a disaster which becomes magnified if it has a direct impact on the public health, well being, and long term economic structure of a society if response and recovery efforts are not well coordinated or executed.
Are these hazards? YES! CURRENT TWIN TYPHOONS
Cat 4 Goni & Cat 5 Atsani
Will Typhoon Goni become a Natural Disaster? NO
Will Typhoon Atsani become a Natural Disaster? NO
Types of Natural Disasters Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
Types of Natural Disasters Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Flooding and Coastal Erosion
Types of Natural Disasters Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Flooding and Coastal Erosion Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes
Types of Natural Disasters Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Flooding and Coastal Erosion Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Earthquakes
Types of Natural Disasters Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Flooding and Coastal Erosion Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Earthquakes Tsunamis
Types of Natural Disasters Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Flooding and Coastal Erosion Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Earthquakes Tsunamis Blizzards and Ice Storms
Types of Natural Disasters Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Flooding and Coastal Erosion Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Earthquakes Tsunamis Blizzards and Ice Storms Drought and Heat Waves
National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the US http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/ The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.
Trend of Disasters
For us in the Chicagoland Wilderness Area, the interaction of human behavior on our rivers, prairie and lakeshore is most important to understand!
Where is this? What s wrong with this?
Let s Examine the Trend of Large Scale Weather Events and how they relate to Climate Change
Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm/Hurricane Activity Has Been UP & DOWN!
I believe this is related to the recent warming hiatus.
However, the POWER DISSIPATION INDEX has increased
Costliest Natural Disasters!
Take Away! Hurricanes are still not entirely predictable long term, but a more active year increases vulnerability due to population increase along the coast. THERE WILL BE MANY YEARS WITH NO LANDFALLS!
Droughts are still not completely predictable long term
Years of exceptional drought are increasing due to demand on water resources
Exceptional Drought down from 56% to 48%..
Heavy Rainfall Events Have Been Increasing
And becoming very costly in Suburban Areas
Where is this? What s wrong with this?
Sea Level Rises Make Storms Surges Worse!
Areas vulnerable to sea level rise and increased risk of storm surge
Hurricane Sandy Storm Surge was Cat 3 Level!!
Total Snowfall is Still an uncertainty!
Normal Flow of air around the North Pole
Warmer Pacific has lead to another active year of Super Typhoons
Nuri Changes Upper Flow
Nuri Moved East and Dislodged COLDER AIR
Jetstream Dips and Forces Colder Air Southward!
Early Season Snow in early October due to Super Typhoon
Losses of $1000 2000/cattle!
Last Example of Snowstorms!
Gulf Stream +4.5 to 5.0 C!!
Nor Easter Track has become highly active due to WARMER OCEANS!
Very Warm Gulf Stream 6-8 deg ABOVE NORMAL!
Mid January 2015 L
Late January 2015 L
Early February 2015 L
In Summary Global Temperatures Continue to Rise UNEVENLY causing large cyclical variations in regional climate.
In Summary Global Temperatures Continue to Rise UNEVENLY causing large cyclical variations in regional climate. Population increases and higher demand on our environment alters how we perceive our role as stewards of sustainability through education, patience and advocacy.
Thank you.!