Transportation Infrastructure In Alabama

Transportation Infrastructure In Alabama Meeting the Needs for Economic Growth Final Report on the Requirements for Infrastructure and Transportation to Support the Transformation of the Alabama Economy U.S. Department of Transportation Grant No. DTTS59-03-G-00008 Submitted by The Office of Infrastructure, Logistics and Transportation The The University of Alabama in Huntsville William R. Killingsworth, Ph.D., Director William.Killingsworth@uah.edu 256.824.4434 Gregory A. Harris, P.E., Deputy Director harrisg@uah.edu 256.824.6060

Center for Management and Economic Research Lean Enterprise Lean Manufacturing Six Sigma and Quality Processes Supply Chain Design and Optimization Enterprise Software Transportation Infrastructure Innovation and New Product Development Economic Development Strategies Administration of Industry Associations

Transportation infrastructure will enable or constrain economic growth in the future.

The Bottom Line 1. Anticipated growth in major industry clusters will strain the existing infrastructure and limit future growth. 2. Current industrial base, geographical location, and natural resources can position Alabama as the Freight Gateway to Mid- America. 3. Transportation logistics is the link to economic growth opportunity for the state.

Findings Alabama has a multi-modal transportation network that includes: Highways; Navigable Inland Waterways; Deep Sea Port; Service by Multiple Railroads; and International Air Cargo. The network of transportation infrastructure, however, is currently functioning as independent modalities, not as a system. As a result, the transportation infrastructure of Alabama is not realizing the maximum ROI. This transportation infrastructure will play a determining role in the on-going transition of Alabama s economy from a natural resource and agricultural based economy to a manufacturing and knowledge based economy. The network can play either an enabling or constraining role in economic growth and transition.

Findings Trends and developments create both opportunities and looming crises for the Alabama economy and its transportation infrastructure. Continuing Deterioration of Alabama s highways and bridges; Rapid Growth of the Automotive Industry; Expansion of the Alabama State Docks; and On-going urban/suburban sprawl. Key sections of Alabama s highways face rapidly growing congestion. In 2002, there were 175 miles of interstate with average daily traffic flow in excess of capacity. By 2008, it will grow to 840 miles (increase of 380%). Freight shipments on inland waterways have dramatically declined.

Findings The Alabama State Docks is developing a major container handling facility. However, the lack of a designated northsouth intermodal rail line in Alabama largely constrains intermodal rail cargo to east-west destinations. Truck shipments of containers, primarily north bound, must increase to handle the growth anticipated at the State Docks. Transportation infrastructure planning based upon independent modalities and a non-systemic view is inadequate. Trend line forecasts are incomplete.

Recommendations Near-term solutions must be identified and evaluated to address the looming interstate congestion crises. Establish freight demand functions based upon industry clusters. Develop robust analytical tools to evaluate and project infrastructure performance utilizing industry cluster research.

Recommendations Assess the impact of modern supply chain strategies on freight movement and traffic. Determine the drivers and policy issues that affect the dynamics of freight mode selection. Develop a System Dynamics model that incorporates the long-term interrelationships between population, transportation infrastructure and economic growth.

Population Infrastructure Economic Activity

P-I-E Interrelationship Model

Percentage Change in Population 1980-2000 Alabama by Region 0.3 0.25 0.2 Region1 24.97% AL-14.21% 0.15 Region9 19.07% 0.1 0.05 Region2 7.92% Region3 12.20% Region4 10.07% Region5 13.25% Region6 12.80% Regio n7 9.61% 0-0.05 Region8 4.02% -0.1

Percent Change In Labor Force 1980-2003 Alabama By Region 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% Region 1 42.72% Region 9 40.10% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% Region 3 25.21% Region 4 21.31% Region 5 27.10% Region 6 28.55% Region 7 21.71% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Region 2 10.20% Region 8 1.83%

Percent Change in Population 1980-2003

Percent Change in Labor Force 1980-2003

175 Miles of Congested Facility

Interstate 65 Annual Average Daily Traffic 160,000 140,000 120,000 # OF VEHICLES 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1 7 17 32 55 87 110 135 161 170 174 184 210 MILE MARKER 232 247 254.5 259.5 263 273 283 291 308.5 318 329 344 362 AADT 1985 AADT 1990 AADT 1995 AADT 2000 AADT 2002

Intermodal Railways Through Alabama & the Southeast

Huntsville International Intermodal Center 1987 to 2004 Container Growth 40,000 35,000 33,344 Container Lifts 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 26,502 27,423 24,560 22,873 23,263 23,406 21,499 18,247 17,459 17,808 16,499 16,303 14,834 13,552 13,738 11,847 12,356 10,000 5,000 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* 2003 2004

Alabama Inland Waterways

Total Barge Traffic (Upbound and Downbound) 25,000 20,000 Barges 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Tennessee River - Guntersville (1) Tombigbee - Demopolis Coosa River - Claiborne Tennessee River - Wheeler (1) Tenn-Tom-Bay Springs Tenn-Tom-Gainesville Source: Army Corps of Engineers, compiled by the University of Alabama in Huntsville Office for Economic Development

Total Barge Traffic (Upbound and Downbound) Average Annual % Change 1990-2001 Coosa River - Claiborne Tombigbee - Demopolis Tennessee River - Guntersville (1) Tennessee River - Wheeler (1) Tenn-Tom-Gainesville Tenn-Tom-Bay Springs -30.00% -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% Source: Army Corps of Engineers, compiled by the University of Alabama in Huntsville

Total Tonnage by Port 200,000,000 180,000,000 160,000,000 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 Charleston, SC Miami, FL Jacksonville, FL Mobile, AL Tampa Bay, FL Norf olk Harbor, VA Houston, TX New Orleans, LA 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: Army Corps of Engineers

Total Tonnage, by Southeastern Port Average Annual % Growth 1990-2002 Norfolk Harbor, VA Tampa Bay, FL Mobile, AL Jacksonville, FL New Orleans, LA Houston, TX Miami, FL Charleston, SC -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%

Volume By Commodity - Port of Mobile 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 McDuffie Coal Tons 6,000,000 Garrow s Bend/DRI 4,000,000 Non Containerized General Cargo 2,000,000 Grain Containerized Bulk Plant 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year

5000000 4500000 4,879,429 4,600,787 PORT STATISTICS - 2000 TEUs 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1,629,070 1500000 1000000 500000 1,074,102 948,699 868,178 708,028 278,932 0 LOS ANGELES, CA LONG BEACH, CA CHARLESTON, SC HOUSTON, TX SAVANNAH, GA MIAMI, FL JACKSONVILLE, FL NEW ORLENAS, LA 8,895 MIOBILE, AL

Total Air Freight 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 lbs 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Air Freight by Airport 200,000,000 180,000,000 160,000,000 lbs. 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 Birmingham(BHM) Huntsville(HSV) Mobile(MOB) Mobile(BFM) Montgomery(MGM) 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Legislative Commission on Manufacturing Infrastructure Subcommittee Recommendations The Infrastructure Subcommittee approved the following recommendations on November 18, 2004, for presentation to the Legislative Commission on Manufacturing (Adopted by full commission January 2005): That adequate funding be allocated on an annual basis for improvements and additions to the Alabama State Docks necessary to enhance service to existing industry in Alabama, to promote new export and import opportunities, and to foster economic development for the state. Funding for improvements and programs both underway and envisioned by the Alabama State Port Authority as vital to the competitive future of manufacturers across Alabama.

Legislative Commission on Manufacturing Infrastructure Subcommittee Recommendations A Blue-Ribbon Panel on Alabama s Infrastructure Challenges be formed to evaluate and address the state s serious infrastructure issues. Currently, no entity exists that is looking at all elements of the total infrastructure picture. The ongoing studies by Dr. Bill Killingsworth at UAH, funded in large part by federal grants (US DOT), show a worsening infrastructure scenario in coming years that could have serious dampening effects on existing industry, economic development and public safety in Alabama. The proposed high-level panel should include Administration officials, legislative leaders, entities such as ALDOT, ADO, ADECA and the State Docks, industry leaders and research experts such as Dr. Killingsworth. The panel should be charged with identifying the nature and depth of the infrastructure challenges we face and proposing possible longterm solutions.

Legislative Commission on Manufacturing Infrastructure Subcommittee Recommendations A recommendation to the Legislature, the Administration and Alabama s Congressional Delegation concerning highway funding. The gap in Alabama between road and bridge maintenance needs and the funding to address those needs is a serious threat to economic development, the competitiveness of Alabama industry, and public highway safety. Congress should be urged to quickly re-authorize the Federal Highway Act, providing matching funds to the states. The subcommittee recommends that the state Legislature and the Administration be urged to work together to identify revenue sources needed to assure Alabama s ability to match the federal funds without taking monies from state highway maintenance projects.

Alabama Major Traded Clusters Relative to The United States Economy Textiles Agricultural Products Processed Food Tobacco Jewelry and Precious Metals Apparel Forest Products Fishing and Fishing Products Entertainment Leather and Sporting Goods Hospitality and Tourism Financial Services Publishing and Printing Transportation and Logistics Footwear Information Technology Distribution Services Education and Knowledge Creation Analytical Instruments Pharmaceuticals Communications Equipment Chemical Products Medical Devices Plastics Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Oil and Gas Lightning & Electrical Equipment Power Generation Business Services Heavy Construction Services Power Transmission and Distr. Construction Materials Aerospace Engines Metal Manufacturing Building Furniture Fixtures, Equipment and Services Automotive Prefabricated Enclosures Production Technology Heavy Machinery Motor Driven Products Source: Porter, Michael E., Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School

Major Traded & Target Clusters in Alabama s Economy 2001 Textiles Apparel Plastics Processed Food Forest Products Hospitality and Tourism Financial Services Publishing and Printing Transportation and & Logistics Information Technology Distribution Services Education and Knowledge Creation Pharmaceuticals Analytical Instruments Chemical Products Medical Devices Business Services Aerospace Vehicles & Defense ** Heavy Construction Services Aerospace Engines Building Fixtures, Equipment and Services Automotive Automotive ** Metal; Metal Manufacturing Manufacturing Production ** Technology Motor Driven Motor Products Driven Products ** Prefabricated Enclosures Heavy Machinery Adapted from work by: Porter, Michael E., Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School

Automotive Production Capacity Expands by 520,000 800,000 760,000 Finished Autos 600,000 400,000 200,000 216% growth 240,000-2003 2008

Automotive Industry Truck Freight 2,000,000 1,880,000 1,800,000 Shipments 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000-150% growth Suppliers 750,000 Suppliers OEM OEM 2003 Truck Growth Rate 2008 1 OEM = 3.5 Supplier 198% growth 82% growth

Container Equivalents 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Waterborne Freight Due to Automotive Industry Growth 19,250 102% growth 9,500 2003 2008

Railcars 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Rail Freight Due to Automotive Industry Growth 68,500 171% growth 25,275-2003 2008

Tons 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Air Freight Due to Automotive Industry Growth 19% growth 4,200 3,500 2003 2008

Model Development and Projections

Traffic Demand Modeling Network

175 Miles of Congested Facility

2008 Volume to Capacity Ratios Using Historical Trend Analysis 390 Miles of Congested Facility

2008 Volume to Capacity Ratios with Automotive & Aerospace Cluster Information Included 840 Miles of Congested Facility Map Point 2002 AADT 2008 AADT Historical Trend Forecast Forecas t Change 2002 to Historic al 2008 AADT Forecast with Specific Cluster Growth Forecast Change 2002 to 2008 with Industry Clusters A 33,260 40,143 20.7% 44,170 32.8% B 38,010 45,255 19.1% 50,393 32.6% C 36,360 52,265 43.7% 58,143 59.9% D 52,430 59,868 14.2% 62,030 18.3% E 83,780 90,567 8.1% 99,148 18.3% F 104,530 130,581 24.9% 139,977 33.9% G 19,240 21,206 10.2% 28,162 46.4% H 31,940 35,367 10.7% 38,060 19.2% I 34,840 43,846 25.8% 47,777 37.1% J 21,550 28,023 30.0% 29,449 36.7%

Traffic Levels on Interstate 20 with Capacity Indicated 250000 200000 Daily V o lu m es 150000 100000 Mercedes - Mile Marker 89 Honda - Mile Marker 168 Capacity Volume 2002 Trendline Volume 2008 Model Forecasted Volume 2008 50000 0 0 50 100 150 200 Milepost on Interstate 20

Traffic Levels on Interstate 10 with Capacity Indicated 120000 100000 State Docks - Mile Marker 26 Daily Volumes 80000 60000 40000 Capacity Volume 2002 Trendline Volume 2008 Model Forecasted Volume 2008 20000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Milepost on Interstate 10

Traffic Levels on Interstate 65 with Capacity Indicated 200000 180000 160000 Daily Volum es 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 Hyundai - Mile Marker 164 Capacity Volume 2002 Trendline Volume 2008 Model Forecasted Volume 2008 40000 20000 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Milepost on Interstate 65

Traffic Levels on Interstate 59 with Capacity Indicated 250000 200000 D aily V olum es 150000 100000 Capacity Volume 2002 Trendline Volume 2008 Model Forecasted Volume 2008 50000 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Milepost on Interstate 59

Traffic Levels on Interstate 85 with Capacity Indicated 180000 160000 140000 D aily V olum es 120000 100000 80000 60000 Capacity Volume 2002 Trendline Volume 2008 Model Forecasted Volume 2008 40000 20000 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Milepost on Interstate 85

Summary and Conclusions

Findings Alabama has a multi-modal transportation network that includes: Highways; Navigable Inland Waterways; Deep Sea Port; Service by Multiple Railroads; and International Air Cargo. The network of transportation infrastructure, however, is currently functioning as independent modalities, not as a system. As a result, the transportation infrastructure of Alabama is not realizing the maximum ROI. This transportation infrastructure will play a determining role in the on-going transition of Alabama s economy from a natural resource and agricultural based economy to a manufacturing and knowledge based economy. The network can play either an enabling or constraining role in economic growth and transition.

Findings Trends and developments create both opportunities and looming crises for the Alabama economy and its transportation infrastructure. Continuing Deterioration of Alabama s highways and bridges; Rapid Growth of the Automotive Industry; Expansion of the Alabama State Docks; and On-going urban/suburban sprawl. Key sections of Alabama s highways face rapidly growing congestion. In 2002, there were 175 miles of interstate with average daily traffic flow in excess of capacity. By 2008, it will grow to 840 miles (380%). Freight shipments on inland waterways have dramatically declined.

Findings The Alabama State Docks is developing a major container handling facility. However the lack of a designated north south intermodal rail line in Alabama constrains intermodal cargo to east-west destinations. Truck shipments of containers must increase to handle the growth anticipated at the State Docks. Transportation infrastructure planning based upon independent modalities and a non-systemic view is inadequate. Trend line forecasts are incomplete.

Recommendations Near-term solutions must be identified and evaluated to address the looming interstate congestion crises. Establish freight demand functions based upon industry clusters. Develop robust analytical tools to evaluate and project infrastructure performance utilizing industry cluster research.

Recommendations Assess the impact of modern supply chain strategies on freight movement and traffic. Determine the drivers and policy issues that affect the dynamics of freight mode selection. Develop a System Dynamics model that incorporates the long-term interrelationships between population, transportation infrastructure and economic growth.

Relationships Between Major Components of the ATIM Model & Vehicle Settings User/Data Input Transportation Network Nodes/Locations Links Speed Calculations Performance Measures Vehicle Routing Arrivals Paths Output

P-I-E Interrelationship Model