THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline Release #2412 Release Date: Friday, June 8, 2012 NEARLY AS MANY VOTERS NOW DISAPPROVE AS APPROVE OF BROWN'S PERFORMANCE AS GOVERNOR. LARGE DISAPPROVAL OF STATE LAWMAKERS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER BROWN OR LEGISLATURE TO RESOLVE BUDGET DEFICIT. IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520) By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field The proportion of voters who disapproves of the job Jerry Brown is doing as governor has been increasing steadily since he took office early last year. In its current survey The Field Poll finds that about as many now disapprove (40%) as approve (43%) of his job performance. Voters' long-standing dismal appraisal of the state legislature' job performance continues. Just 19% now approve of its performance, while 64% disapprove. Large proportions of voters say they don't have much confidence in either the governor (43%) or the legislature (65%) to do what is right to resolve the state budget deficit. In addition, by a 41% to 26% margin, more voters would side with the Governor over the legislature if he and state lawmakers were at odds about matters relating to the budget. However, the current fifteen-point plurality siding with the Governor is down from a twenty-seven point plurality last year. These are the findings from the latest Field Poll completed May 21-29 among a cross-section of the state's registered voters. Brown's job performance ratings worsen Four in ten voters (40%) disapprove of the way Brown is doing his job as Governor. This proportion is now nearly equivalent to the proportion who approves of his performance (43%). This contrasts with a more than two to one (48% to 21%) positive appraisal of the Governor in March 2011, two months after he was sworn in. Since then there has been a steady increase in the proportion of voters viewing him negatively. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action Employer
Friday, June 8, 2012 Page 2 Table 1 Trend of job performance ratings of Governor Jerry Brown (among registered voters) Approve Disapprove No opinion Late May 2012 43% 40 17 February 2012 45% 38 17 November 2011 47% 36 17 September 2011 49% 32 19 June 2011 46% 31 23 March 2011 48% 21 31 Differences in the Governor's job ratings across voter subgroups When the Governor's job performance ratings are examined across major subgroups of the voter population, Brown receives his most favorable job marks from Democrats, center-left voters and Northern Californians. Women, racial minorities, union member households, and voters living in families with an annual household income of $40,000 or more also tend to give Brown more positive then negative assessments. The voter subgroups that are most disapproving of Brown's performance are Republicans and conservatives, although voters living in the Central Valley or areas of Southern California outside of Los Angeles County, white non-hispanics, and those with household incomes of less than $40,000 also now view the Governor more negatively than positively.
Friday, June 8, 2012 Page 3 Table 2 Current job performance ratings of Governor Brown by subgroup (among registered voters) Approve Disapprove No opinion Total 43% 40 17 Party registration Democrats 61% 23 16 Republicans 20% 66 14 No party preference/other 41% 39 20 Political ideology Strongly conservative 13% 74 13 Moderately conservative* 37% 45 18 Middle-of-the-road 47% 36 17 Moderately liberal* 58% 23 19 Strongly liberal* 73% 8 19 Region Los Angeles County 44% 40 16 Other Southern California 37% 49 14 Central Valley 37% 42 21 San Francisco Bay Area 58% 25 17 Other Northern California* 49% 30 21 Gender Male 43% 44 13 Female 44% 36 20 Race/ethnicity White non-hispanic 40% 46 14 Latino 49% 32 19 African-American* 63% 24 13 Asian-American/other 42% 35 23 Union affiliation Union member in household 53% 35 12 Non-union household 41% 42 17 Household income Less than $40,000 39% 44 17 $40,000 $99,999 48% 39 13 $100,000 or more 49% 38 13 * Small sample base.
Friday, June 8, 2012 Page 4 Views of the state legislature remain gloomy Voters' extremely low appraisal of the state legislature's job performance, which has been in evidence for many years, continues unabated. Just 19% of the state's registered voters now approve of the job state lawmakers are doing, while 64% disapprove. In each of thirteen previous Field Poll measures conducted since September 2008, fewer than one in four voters have expressed their approval of the legislature's performance. Majorities of voters across all partisan affiliations disapprove of the legislature's performance, although Republicans are the most critical.
Friday, June 8, 2012 Page 5 Table 3 Trend of voter appraisals of the job the state legislature is doing (among registered voters) Approve Disapprove No opinion Late May 2012 19% 64 17 February 2012 22% 64 14 November 2011 22% 62 16 September 2011 20% 65 15 June 2011 23% 64 13 March 2011 16% 70 14 September 2010 10% 80 10 July 2010 16% 74 10 March 2010 13% 78 9 January 2010 16% 72 12 October 2009 13% 78 9 April 2009 14% 74 12 March 2009 18% 72 10 September 2008 15% 73 12 July 2008 27% 57 16 May 2008 30% 57 13 2007 (average) 38% 43 19 2006 (average) 30% 50 20 2005 (average) 28% 55 17 2004 (average) 28% 53 19 2003 (average) 25% 59 16 2002 (average) 40% 40 20 2001 (average) 43% 37 20 2000 (average) 48% 25 27 1999 (average) 45% 28 27 1998 (average) 45% 33 22 1997 (average) 38% 40 22 1996 (average) 41% 49 10 1995 (average) 34% 59 7 1993 (average) 28% 64 8 1992 (average) 32% 64 4 1990 (average) 45% 48 7 1988 (average) 57% 36 7 1983 (average) 43% 49 8 Party registration (Late May 2012) Democrats 24% 56 20 Republicans 9% 80 11 No party preference/other 24% 61 15 Note: Surveys prior to 1996 were conducted among all adults. In addition, response scales from these surveys were converted from their original five-point scale to the current two-point approve/disapprove scales for comparative purposes.
Friday, June 8, 2012 Page 6 Little confidence in legislature to satisfactorily resolve the budget deficit; confidence in the Governor declining Large proportions of voters now say they have little confidence in either Brown or the legislature to do what is right to resolve the state's budget deficit. The legislature is viewed most negatively in this regard, with 65% of voters saying they do not have much confidence that it can satisfactorily resolve the deficit. This is similar to voter sentiment last September, when 63% of voters felt this way. An increasing proportion of voters now has little confidence in the Governor's ability to satisfactorily resolve the deficit situation. The current poll finds 43% of voters saying they do not have much confidence in the Governor in this area, up from 32% who felt this way last September. Table 4 Trend of confidence in Governor Brown and the State Legislature in dealing with matters relating to the state budget deficit (among California registered voters) A great deal Some Not much No opinion Governor Brown Late May 2012 9% 45 43 3 September 2011 15% 50 32 3 The state legislature Late May 2012 3% 29 65 3 September 2011 2% 32 63 3 Who voters would be more likely to side with in a budget dispute If the Governor and the legislature were at odds about a specific aspect relating to the state budget, by a 41% to 26% margin voters say they would be more inclined to support the Governor's position than that of state lawmakers. However, the proportion preferring the Governor's position over the legislature's has declined from what it was in June 2011 when this question was last posed. At that time more than twice as many voters (50%) said they'd side with the Governor in such a dispute, as would support the legislature (23%).
Friday, June 8, 2012 Page 7 Table 5 If Governor Brown and the state legislature were at odds about the specifics of the budget, whose position would you be more inclined to support? (among California registered voters) Governor Brown State legislature Neither Don't know Late May 2012 41% 26 10 23 June 2011 50% 23 10 17 Party registration (Late May 2012) Democrats 53% 20 5 22 Republicans 25% 35 17 23 No party preference/other 41% 25 9 25 30
Friday, June 8, 2012 Page 8 Methodological Details Information About The Survey The latest Field Poll survey was completed May 21 29, 2012 among 710 registered voters in California. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporation s central location telephone interviewing facilities. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize respondent, some of the questions in this report are based on random subsamples of approximately 350 registered voters each. Interviewing was completed on either a voter s landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. In this survey about 21% of the interviews were derived from cell phone listings and 79% from landline phone listings. After the completion of interviewing, both the overall registered voter sample and the likely voter sample were weighted to Field Poll estimates of the characteristics of the registered voter populations in California. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error estimates for results based on 710 registered voters is +/- 3.8 percentage points while findings from each of the random subsamples have a maximum sampling error of +/- 5.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other possible sources of error. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers of The Field Poll, from several California foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. Questions Asked Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the California state legislature is doing its job? Overall, how much confidence do you have in Governor Brown to do what is right to resolve this year's state budget deficit a great deal of confidence, some confidence or not much confidence?* Overall, how much confidence do you have in the state legislature to do what is right to resolve this year's state budget deficit a great deal of confidence, some confidence or not much confidence?* Suppose that during negotiations on the state budget in Sacramento, Governor Brown and the state legislature were at odds about the specifics of the budget. If you did not know anything more about the matter, whose position would you be more inclined to support on this issue Governor Brown or the state legislature? * asked of random subsample of voters.