Report created Nov 15, 2016 Page 1 OF 5 Exxon Mobil is the world's largest nongovernment-owned energy company. It is also one of the world's largest publicly traded companies in terms of market capitalization. XOM operates globally along the entire hydrocarbon value chain, from energy exploration to end-user product sales and marketing. The company is the largest refiner and marketer of refined products and the company's chemical business ranks as one of the world's largest. The company is the result of the 1999 merger of Exxon and Mobil. Analyst's Notes Analysis by Bill Selesky, November 15, 2016 ARGUS RATING: BUY Reaffirming BUY rating and $104 target Exxon appears attractively valued relative to peers and continues to benefit from its diverse asset base and strong cost controls: the company lowered Upstream unit costs by 9% in 2015 and expects further cost reductions in 2016. On October 28, ExxonMobil reported 3Q16 net earnings of $2.650 billion or $0.63 per diluted share, down from $4.240 billion or $1.01 per diluted share in 3Q15. EPS fell short of our estimate of $0.73 but beat the consensus estimate of $0.62. The year-over-year decline in third-quarter earnings was driven mainly by lower commodity prices (crude oil, natural gas, and NGL's) and weaker refining margins. We are lowering our 2016 EPS estimate to $2.26 from $2.36 to reflect the 3Q earnings miss relative to our estimate and our expectations for continued weak commodity prices over the remainder of the year. We are maintaining our 2017 EPS estimate of $4.24, implying growth of about 88% from our 2016 estimate, based on our expectations for higher crude oil and natural gas prices next year. INVESTMENT THESIS INVESTMENT THESIS We are reaffirming our BUY rating on Focus List selection ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) with a price target of $104. Exxon appears favorably valued relative to peers and continues to benefit from its diverse asset base and strong cost controls: the company lowered Upstream unit costs by 9% in 2015 and expects further cost reductions this year. We also believe that Exxon is now less likely to dilute earnings with an expensive acquisition, as it did with XTO Energy in 2009, and that it will instead continue to focus on leveraging its integrated business model and strengthening operational and financial execution. The shares also offer a sustainable dividend with a yield of about 3.5%. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS XOM shares have underperformed thus far in 2016, rising 9.4% while the S&P 500 Data Pricing reflects previous trading week's closing price. 200-Day Moving Average Price ($) 100 Rating EPS ($) 90 80 70 Target Price: $104.00 52 Week High: $87.99 52 Week Low: $82.76 Closed at $85.67 on 11/11 0.43 0.41 Quarterly 2.10 2.05 1.89 1.56 1.17 1.00 1.01 0.67 0.63 0.79 0.90 1.04 1.16 1.15 Annual 7.60 3.85 2.26 ( Estimate) 4.24 ( Estimate) Revenue ($ in Bil.) Quarterly 93.9 97.8 95.7 76.1 59.2 65.4 59.9 54.4 42.3 50.9 51.3 56.2 74.1 80.8 88.0 82.7 Annual 363.5 238.9 200.8 ( Estimate) 325.5 ( Estimate) FY ends Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec 31 2014 2015 2016 2017 BUY HOLD SELL Argus Recommendations Twelve Month Rating SELL HOLD BUY Five Year Rating SELL HOLD BUY Rating Weight Under Over Weight Weight Argus assigns a 12-month BUY, HOLD, or SELL rating to each stock under coverage. BUY-rated stocks are expected to outperform the market (the benchmark S&P 500 Index) on a risk-adjusted basis over the next year. HOLD-rated stocks are expected to perform in line with the market. SELL-rated stocks are expected to underperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis. The distribution of ratings across Argus' entire company universe is: 47% Buy, 47% Hold, 6% Sell. Key Statistics Key Statistics pricing data reflects previous trading day's closing price. Other applicable data are trailing 12-months unless otherwise specified Overview Price $85.28 Target Price $104.00 52 Week Price Range $71.55 to $95.55 Shares Outstanding 4.15 Billion Dividend $3.00 Overview Energy Rating MARKET WEIGHT Total % of S&P 500 Cap. 7.00% Financial Strength Financial Strength Rating HIGH Debt/Capital Ratio 18.0% Return on Equity 5.7% Net Margin 4.5% Payout Ratio 1.32 Current Ratio 0.79 Revenue $196.87 Billion After-Tax Income $8.94 Billion Valuation Current FY P/E 37.73 Prior FY P/E 22.15 Price/Sales 1.80 Price/Book 2.07 Book Value/Share $41.14 Capitalization $353.63 Billion Forecasted Growth 1 Year EPS Growth Forecast -41.30% 5 Year EPS Growth Forecast 6.00% 1 Year Dividend Growth Forecast 3.47% Risk Beta 0.93 Institutional Ownership 51.29%
Report created Nov 15, 2016 Page 2 OF 5 Energy index has risen 14.4%. However, they have outperformed over the past year, climbing 9.5% while the index has risen 6.1%. On October 28, ExxonMobil reported 3Q16 net earnings of $2.650 billion or $0.63 per diluted share, down from $4.240 billion or $1.01 per diluted share in 3Q15. EPS fell short of our estimate of $0.73 but beat the consensus estimate of $0.62. The year-over-year decline in third-quarter earnings was driven mainly by lower commodity prices (crude oil, natural gas, and NGL's) and weaker refining margins, In the Upstream segment, the company posted a 3Q profit of $620 million, down from $1.358 billion in 3Q15, reflecting lower realized prices for liquids and natural gas. On an oil-equivalent basis, production was down 3% from the third quarter of 2015. Liquids production averaged 2.21 million barrels per day, down 5% from 3Q15. Natural gas production increased 1% to 9.60 billion cubic feet per day due to new project start-ups. The U.S. Upstream business posted a loss of $477 million, compared to a loss of $442 million a year earlier. Non-U.S. Upstream earnings fell to $1.097 billion from $1.800 billion in 3Q15. Downstream earnings fell from $2.033 billion to $1.229 billion, as weaker refining margins more than offset the impact of higher volume and positive mix. Petroleum product sales fell 4% to 5.59 million barrels per day. In the Chemicals segment, third-quarter earnings fell by $56 million to $1.171 billion. Prime product sales rose 1% to 6.13 million metric tons. EARNINGS & GROWTH ANALYSIS We are lowering our 2016 EPS estimate to $2.26 from $2.36 to reflect the 3Q earnings miss relative to our estimate and our expectations for continued weak commodity prices over the remainder of the year. The 2016 consensus is $2.19. We are maintaining our 2017 EPS estimate of $4.24, implying growth of about 88% from our 2016 estimate, based on our expectations for higher crude oil and natural gas prices next year. The 2017 consensus forecast is $4.23. For all of 2016, ExxonMobil projects capital and exploration expenditures of $23.2 billion, down nearly 25% from 2015. FINANCIAL STRENGTH & DIVIDEND We rate XOM's financial strength as High, the highest rating on our five-point scale. The company's debt is rated AA+/stable by Standard & Poor's. The agency lowered its rating from AAA/stable on April 26, 2016, noting that the company's emphasis on dividend hikes and stock buybacks could limit its ability to pay down debt. Exxon Mobil had maintained its AAA/stable rating since 1929. Moody's has an assigned rating of Aaa/negative. At the end of 3Q16, XOM's total debt/capitalization ratio was 20.7%, up from 16.3% a year earlier but below the peer average. We view the company's low leverage as a positive in a low oil price environment. Total debt was $44.16 billion at the end of 3Q16, up from $34.31 billion at the end of 3Q15. ExxonMobil had cash and cash equivalents of $5.09 billion at Growth & Valuation Analysis GROWTH ANALYSIS ($ in Millions, except per share data) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Revenue 496,478 467,049 436,671 373,232 249,971 COGS 350,540 325,038 314,411 267,761 174,393 Gross Profit 145,938 142,011 122,260 105,471 75,578 SG&A 14,957 13,394 12,891 12,179 11,381 R&D Operating Income 72,180 77,493 56,951 43,324 17,361 Interest Expense 325 244 51 308 300 Pretax Income 71,855 77,249 56,900 43,038 17,061 Income Taxes 30,763 29,606 23,843 13,718 3,804 Tax Rate (%) 25 Net Income 39,860 44,930 32,180 28,360 13,020 Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,811 4,571 4,380 4,253 4,188 EPS 8.28 9.82 7.35 6.67 3.11 Dividend 1.88 2.28 2.52 2.76 2.92 GROWTH RATES (%) Revenue -34.2 Operating Income -57.1 Net Income -50.3 EPS 15.2-24.0 3.1-49.3 Dividend 17.8 12.8 9.8 6.7 Sustainable Growth Rate 21.7 14.0 13.1 4.6-2.0 VALUATION ANALYSIS Price: High $93.67 $101.74 $104.76 $93.45 Price: Low $77.13 $84.79 $86.19 $66.55 Price/Sales: High-Low 0.9-0.7 1.0-0.8 1.1-0.9 1.1-0.8 - P/E: High-Low 11.3-9.3 10.4-8.6 14.3-11.7 14.0-10.0 - Price/Cash Flow: High-Low 7.7-6.4 9.5-7.9 9.4-7.8 11.8-8.4 - Financial & Risk Analysis FINANCIAL STRENGTH 2014 2015 2016 Cash ($ in Millions) Working Capital ($ in Millions) Current Ratio 0.79 LT Debt/Equity Ratio (%) 11.7 Total Debt/Equity Ratio (%) 22.6 RATIOS (%) Gross Profit Margin 30.0 Operating Margin 8.3 Net Margin 6.0 Return On Assets 4.7 Return On Equity 9.4 RISK ANALYSIS Cash Cycle (days) 22.4 Cash Flow/Cap Ex Oper. Income/Int. Exp. (ratio) 71.6 Payout Ratio 31.3 33.2 60.0 The data contained on this page of this report has been provided by Morningstar, Inc. ( 2016 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved). This data (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This data is set forth herein for historical reference only and is not necessarily used in Argus analysis of the stock set forth on this page of this report or any other stock or other security. All earnings figures are in GAAP.
Report created Nov 15, 2016 Page 3 OF 5 the end of 3Q16, up from $4.30 billion a year earlier. The company also has a $4.0 billion revolving credit facility that expires in July 2020. Cash from operating activities totaled $5.36 billion in 3Q16, down from $9.17 billion in 3Q15. In July 2015, XOM said that it would cut quarterly share buybacks by 50%, beginning in the third quarter of 2015, to $500 million. The reduction was the second of the year, as management first lowered quarterly repurchases from $3.0 billion to $1.0 billion in February 2015. The company repurchased $500 million of its stock in 3Q, primarily to offset dilution from the exercise of employee stock options. In May 2016, XOM raised its quarterly dividend by 3% to $0.75 per share, or $3.00 annually. The current yield is about 3.5%. Our dividend forecasts are $2.98 for 2016 and $3.00 for 2017. The company typically announces dividend increases in April of each year; the recent increase is the smallest since 2011. MANAGEMENT & RISKS Like its peers, Exxon operates in a commodity business where it ultimately has little control over the price of the products it sells. As a result, the company budgets its projects based on a range of oil prices, and management remains confident that its projects will be profitable regardless of actual price levels. Exxon Mobil operates in some countries with a history of official corruption and in others that are prone to political upheavals. At the same time, its broad presence reduces the impact of each individual risk. COMPANY DESCRIPTION Exxon Mobil is the world's largest nongovernment-owned energy company. It is also one of the world's largest publicly traded companies in terms of market capitalization. XOM operates globally along the entire hydrocarbon value chain, from energy exploration to end-user product sales and marketing. The company is the largest refiner and marketer of refined products and the company's chemical business ranks as one of the world's largest. The company is the result of the 1999 merger of Exxon and Mobil. VALUATION XOM shares have traded between $71.55 and $95.55 over the past 52 weeks and are currently in the upper half of that range. They are trading at a relatively high 37.7-times our 2016 EPS forecast and at 20.1-times our 2017 forecast, reflecting the decline in earnings estimates during the oil price downturn as well as the rebound in energy stocks from their February 2016 lows. The stock continues to trade well below the 2016 peer average P/E of 46.2, but close to the peer average for price/book, price/sales, price/cash flow and price/ebitda. We believe that XOM merits higher multiples based on the company's diverse asset base, strong cost controls, and secure dividend. Our discounted cash flow model yields a fair value for XOM of $101 per share. Based on our blended analysis, we are reiterating our target price of $104, implying a potential gain of 26%, including the dividend. Peer & Industry Analysis The graphics in this section are designed to allow investors to compare XOM versus its industry peers, the broader sector, and the market as a whole, as defined by the Argus Universe of Coverage. The scatterplot shows how XOM stacks up versus its peers on two key characteristics: long-term growth and value. In general, companies in the lower left-hand corner are more value-oriented, while those in the upper right-hand corner are more growth-oriented. The table builds on the scatterplot by displaying more financial information. The bar charts on the right take the analysis two steps further, by broadening the comparison groups into the sector level and the market as a whole. This tool is designed to help investors understand how XOM might fit into or modify a diversified portfolio. P/E 80 60 40 Value CVX BP 5-yr Growth Rate(%) XOM RDS.A 5 5.5 6 6.5 Growth 5-yr Net 1-yr EPS Cap Growth Current Margin Growth Argus Ticker Company ($ in Millions) Rate (%) FY P/E (%) (%) Rating XOM Exxon Mobil Corp 353,626 6.0 37.7 4.5 87.6 BUY CVX Chevron Corporation 201,084 5.0 81.4-1.5 258.8 BUY RDS.A Royal Dutch Shell PLC 149,309 6.0 24.9 1.8 99.0 BUY BP BP PLC 103,315 5.0 27.7-2.0 111.8 BUY Peer Average 201,834 5.5 42.9.7 139.3 P/E Price/Sales Price/Book PEG 5 Year Growth Debt/Capital
Report created Nov 15, 2016 Page 4 OF 5 On November 15 at midday, BUY-rated XOM traded at $86.79, up $1.51.
METHODOLOGY & DISCLAIMERS Report created Nov 15, 2016 Page 5 OF 5 About Argus Argus Research, founded by Economist Harold Dorsey in 1934, has built a top-down, fundamental system that is used by Argus analysts. This six-point system includes Industry Analysis, Growth Analysis, Financial Strength Analysis, Management Assessment, Risk Analysis and Valuation Analysis. Utilizing forecasts from Argus Economist, the Industry Analysis identifies industries expected to perform well over the next one-to-two years. The Growth Analysis generates proprietary estimates for companies under coverage. In the Financial Strength Analysis, analysts study ratios to understand profitability, liquidity and capital structure. During the Management Assessment, analysts meet with and familiarize themselves with the processes of corporate management teams. Quantitative trends and qualitative threats are assessed under the Risk Analysis. And finally, Argus Valuation Analysis model integrates a historical ratio matrix, discounted cash flow modeling, and peer comparison. THE ARGUS RESEARCH RATING SYSTEM Argus uses three ratings for stocks: BUY, HOLD, and SELL. Stocks are rated relative to a benchmark, the S&P 500. A BUY-rated stock is expected to outperform the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis over a 12-month period. To make this determination, Argus Analysts set target prices, use beta as the measure of risk, and compare expected risk-adjusted stock returns to the S&P 500 forecasts set by the Argus Strategist. A HOLD-rated stock is expected to perform in line with the S&P 500. A SELL-rated stock is expected to underperform the S&P 500. Argus Research Disclaimer Argus Research is an independent investment research provider and is not a member of the FINRA or the SIPC. Argus Research is not a registered broker dealer and does not have investment banking operations. The Argus trademark, service mark and logo are the intellectual property of Argus Group Inc. The information contained in this research report is produced and copyrighted by Argus, and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law and can result in prosecution. The content of this report may be derived from Argus research reports, notes, or analyses. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Argus makes no representation as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The information and material presented in this report are for general information only and do not specifically address individual investment objectives, financial situations or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investing in any security or investment strategies discussed may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor. Nothing in this report constitutes individual investment, legal or tax advice. Argus may issue or may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this report, and all opinions are reflective of judgments made on the original date of publication. Argus is under no obligation to ensure that other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Argus shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this report, nor shall Argus treat all recipients of this report as customers simply by virtue of their receipt of this material. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. Argus has provided independent research since 1934. Argus officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in stocks discussed in this report. No Argus officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may serve as officers or directors of covered companies, or may own more than one percent of a covered company s stock. Morningstar Disclaimer 2016 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Certain financial information included in this report: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.