Zacks Earning Trends

Transcription

1 May 11, 2016 Zacks Earning Trends Sheraz Mian Will Hopes of Earnings Growth Materialize? While traditional retailers have only just started reporting quarterly results, the bulk of the Q1 earnings season is now behind us, with results from 451 S&P 500 members already out. Total earnings for these 451 index members are down -7.2% from the same period last year on -1.4% lower revenues, with 71.2% beating EPS estimates and 55.7% coming ahead of top-line expectations. With respect to the Retail sector, we are about halfway through with the sector s Q1 results, with most of the reports thus coming from operators in the relatively healthier parts of the space like online vendors and restaurant operators. As such, the sector s Q1 results thus far are reasonably good. But that will change in the coming days if we read through Macy s (M) sub-par report to the rest of the group. The clouds over traditional operators aren t necessarily a function of how much consumers are spending, but rather where they are spending them. Macy s and many of its peers not only have to come up with a competitive response to the Amazon (AMZN) challenge, but they also have to defend market shares from discounters. There is also this emerging narrative of over-capacity in the brick-and-mortar retail space, which is making it difficult for all operators. With a growing share of retail spending shifting online, traditional operators likely need to get more aggressive in cutting back on legacy capacity. The side-by-side charts below put the Q1 results so far from the 451 S&P 500 members in a historical context. The left-hand side chart compares the Q1 earnings and revenue growth rates while the right side chart compares the percentage of companies coming out with positive earnings and revenue surprises. As you can see, the growth pace is notably weak

2 relative to the 4-quarter and 12-quarter averages, but positive surprises are tracking above historical periods for the same group of companies. The recent decline in the exchange value of the U.S. dollar is helping S&P 500 members on the margin side as well, but this preponderance of positive surprises is primarily a function of low expectations. The chart below shows the proportion of the 451 index members that have beat both EPS and revenue estimates. Even on this metric, positive surprises are more numerous relative to historical periods. Earnings Picture Beyond 2016 Q1 Our summary take on the Q1 earnings season is that while growth remained nonexistent, actual results turned out to be less bad relative to the low levels to which estimates had fallen ahead of this reporting cycle. More companies came out with positive surprises for both earnings as well as revenues. Importantly, while estimates for the current period (2016 Q2) have come down, they haven t fallen as much as was the case at the comparable stage in the prior earnings season. Low expectations likely explain part of the deceleration in the negative revisions pace for Q2 as estimates for this period had already come down over the last four months. The recent favorable movement in the U.S. dollar s exchange value is likely helping matters on the margin as well. Total earnings for the S&P 500 index are currently expected to be down -5.9% from the same period last year. The chart below shows Q2 earnings growth expectations have evolved over the last few weeks. 2

3 The chart below shows Q1 growth expectations contrasted with what was actually achieved in the preceding three quarters and estimates for the following four periods. Full-year 2016 earnings growth expectations have now turned negative, similar to what we saw last year. Many see the Q1 earnings season as the inflection point for corporate earnings, with the growth picture starting improve from Q2 onwards and turning positive in the back half of the year. The relative more numerous positive surprises and the fewer negative revisions to current-period estimates would support that view. But the proof of this narrative will become clear in the coming days as more companies report Q1 results and provide color on the evolving business picture. (Note: Full report on the following pages) 3

4 Q1 Earnings Season Effectively Over The bulk of the Q1 earnings season is now behind us, with results from 451 S&P 500 members, or 90.2% of the index s membership, already out. Total earnings for these 451 index members are down -7.2% from the same period last year on -1.4% lower revenues, with 71.2% beating EPS estimates and 55.7% coming ahead of top-line expectations. Earnings growth is negative for half of the 16 sectors, including Finance and Technology, the two largest earnings contributors in the index. The table below shows the Q1 scorecard of the results thus far. The last two columns show the blended beat % (the percentage of companies that have beat both EPS as well revenue estimates), and the stock price impact of the earnings report. Note: Here are few key points to keep in mind while reading this report. a. All the earnings analysis in this report pertains to the S&P 500 index, a handy proxy for the entire business world. We use the index s current membership as the basis for all period comparisons, meaning that even historical periods reflect the index s current membership. 4

5 b. We divide the corporate world into 16 sectors compared to the official S&P 10 GICS. We have standalone sectors like Autos, Construction, Conglomerates, Aerospace, Transportation and Business Services that provide for a better understanding of trends in these key areas of the economy. c. All references to earnings mean total earnings and not mean or median EPS. d. We make adjustments to reported GAAP earnings to account for non-recurring or one-time items, but we do consider employee stock options (ESOs) as a legitimate business expense. Unlike Zacks, Wall Street and all other data vendors don t treat ESO s as a recurring business expense. At this stage, the Retail sector is the only one that still has a sizable number of reports still to come. For all other sectors, the bulk of Q1 results are already out (the reporting season has already ended for 9 sectors. The last column in the above scorecard table shows the one-day stock price impact of the earnings announcement. We are basically comparing the individual stock prices one day after the earnings announcement with the day before the announcement. Those individual price changes are then aggregated to the sector and index levels. This is not a scientific measure, but nevertheless can be interpreted as a proxy for the market s reaction to the individual earnings releases. As you can see, the Tech and Auto sectors have the most negative price reaction of all 16 sectors, while Construction, Transportation and Consumer Staples has the most positive impact. For the Retail sector, we now have Q1 results from 58.6% of the sector s total market cap in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these retailers are up +5.2% from the same period last year on +10.2% gains revenues, with 81.8% beating EPS estimates and 54.5% coming ahead of revenue estimates. As is the case every quarter, the bulk of the sector reports that have come out pertained to online operators and restaurant players, who by and large came out with positive results. The still-to-come reports are from traditional retailers that likely wouldn t be much different from what we saw from Macy s. For the Energy sector, total Q1 earnings were down % from the same period last year on -29.2% lower revenues, with 60.5% beating EPS estimates and 47.4% beating revenue estimates. Excluding the Energy sector, total earnings for the remaining index members will be down -1.4% on +2.1% higher revenues. The chart below compares the ex-energy growth picture for the index. 5

6 For the Technology sector, we now have Q1 results from 88.5% of the sector s market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Tech companies are down -5.6% on 1.0% higher revenues, with 70.2% beating EPS estimates and 51.1% beating revenue expectations. As the comparison charts below show, this is weak results from these Tech sector companies relative to history. As you can see in the right-hand side chart below, revenue surprises are notably tracking below with the 4-quarter and 12-quarter averages. Please note that weak comparisons at Apple are a big drag on the sector s growth pace. Excluding Apple from the Tech sector s aggregate Q1 picture, earnings growth for the remainder of the sector becomes essentially flat (+0.7%). 6

7 For the Finance sector, total earnings are down -7.0% from the same period last year on 2.7% higher revenues, with 59.1% beating EPS estimates and 53.4% coming ahead of top-line estimates. We knew that Q1 was a tough period for the banks and brokers with low interest rates weighing on their core lending margins and macro uncertainties dragging down their trading and investment banking businesses. But as referred to earlier, investors were actually prepared for even weaker results, particularly on the capital markets side. J.P. Morgan s report showed that while the advisory side of the business was as weak as expected, the trading side did relatively better; trading revenues were weak, but the expectation was for even weaker results. They are provisioning for the Energy sector exposure (adding to reserves) and making headway in squeezing costs out of the operations. Growth in the traditional banking business continues to improve, with steady gains in the loan portfolios, though the interest rate backdrop continues to remain challenging. We now have Q1 results from all Transportation sector companies in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these companies are up +2.9% from the same period last year on -1.1% lower revenues, with 85.7% beating EPS estimates and only 35.7% beating revenue estimates. For the Consumer Staples sector, we now have Q1 results from 95.5% of the sector s total market cap in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these companies are up +2.2% on -5.5% lower revenues, with 85.7% beating EPS estimates and 67.9% beating revenue estimates. Q1 Estimates as a Whole Looking Q1 as a whole, total earnings are expected to be down -6.9% from the same period last year, on -1.1% lower revenues. This will be the 4 th quarter in a row of negative earnings growth for the index. The table below provides a summary view of the expectations for 2016 Q1 7

8 As you can see in the table above, the Energy sector remains a big drag on the aggregate growth picture. Total earnings for the sector are expected to be down % from the same period last year on -31.5% lower revenues, which follows the % drop in the sector s earnings in the preceding period. Excluding the Energy sector, total earnings for the rest of the S&P 500 index would still be in negative. In total, earnings growth is expected to be negative for 9 of the 16 Zacks sectors in Q1, with Basic Materials, Industrial Products, and Conglomerates as the other double-digit decliners. On the positive side, 7 sectors are expected to have positive earnings growth in Q1. These include Autos (+53.2%), Construction (+27.5%), Business Services (+6.6%), Medical (+7.6%), Transportation (+2.9%), Consumer Disc (+8.3%), and Consumer Staples (+2.5%). 8

9 The growth picture isn t that reassuring for the Technology and Finance sectors in the index, with Tech earnings expected to be down -5.0% on +2.2% higher revenue revenues. For Finance, earnings are expected to be down -7.0% on +2.0% higher revenues. The Context for Growth Expectations Let s take a look at how consensus earnings expectations for 2016 Q1 compare to what companies earned in the last few quarters and what they are expected to earn in the coming quarters. Table 2 below presents the year over year quarterly earnings growth rates actuals as well as estimates. Table 3 presents the same data for revenues. Table 2 Earnings Growth Context 9

10 Table 3 Revenue Growth Context The next two tables present the same data in a different format instead of year-overyear growth rates, we have the dollar level of total earnings and revenues for each of these quarters. 10

11 Table 4 Total Quarterly earnings 11

12 Table 5 Total Quarterly Revenues It may be obvious, but it s still useful to explain what we mean by total earnings. This means the sum of net income for all companies in the S&P 500. For historical periods through 2015 Q4, we have taken the total earnings (net income, not EPS) for each company in the S&P 500 and added them up to arrive at the sector and index level totals (we do adjust reported GAAP earnings for non-recurring items, but consider employee stock options as a legitimate business expense). For the coming quarters, including the ongoing Q1 reports, we have taken the Zacks Consensus EPS for each company in the index, multiplied that by the corresponding share count (from the last reported quarter) to arrive at the total earnings for each company. And then we aggregated them to arrive at the totals for each sector and the 12

13 index as a whole. The lack of accuracy in real-time share count notwithstanding, this gives us a fairly accurate view of the total earnings picture. In plain language, what Table 4 tells us is that companies in the S&P 500 earned $271.5 billion in 2015 Q4 and are currently expected to earn $247.5 billion in 2016 Q1. Annual Earnings For full-year 2016, total earnings for the S&P 500 index are currently expected to be down -1.6% on 0.6% lower revenues, which would follow the -1.2% decline in the index s total earnings last year. On an ex-energy basis, 2016 earnings would be up +1.2% vs. +5.8% in Table 6 below provides a summary view for 2016 contrasted with estimates for 2017 and the actual results for As you can see, consensus expectations reflect a notable improvement in earnings growth momentum from next year onwards, with total 2017 earnings for the index expected to be up +13% on +3.8% higher revenues and strong margin gains. Table 6 Summary Annual Earnings Picture 13

14 The charts below show current consensus earnings estimates for this year contrasted with what is expected for 2017 and 2018 and actual results for the preceding 5 years. Chart 7 Total Annual S&P 500 Earnings 14

15 Chart 8 Total Annual S&P 500 Earnings (Excluding Energy) Chart 9 Total Annual Earnings Growth 15

16 Chart 10 Total Annual Earnings Growth (ex-energy) The three sectors expected to be big drivers of earnings growth in 2017 and 2018 include Technology, Finance and Energy. The charts below show current earnings expectations for these sectors Chart 11 Energy Expected to Stabilize 16

17 Chart 12 Tech Growth Expected to Ramp Up Chart 13 Finance Expected to Become the Biggest Contributor 17

18 Index EPS and PEs The table below shows the PEs and EPS for the index. As you can see, the index is expected to earn $ in EPS in 2016 on a bottom-up basis and $ on a topdown basis. 18

19 The Margins Picture The table below shows net margin expectations for Q1 in the context of where they have been and where they are expected to go in the coming quarters. Table 6: Quarterly Net Margins 19

20 The charts below show current margins expectations in a historical context. The first chart shows margins on a quarterly basis since early 2011 while the second one shows annual margins since As you can see, margins are already past cyclical highs. 20

21 Market Cap vs. Total Earnings The charts below show the share of estimated total earnings for 2016 as well as the share of total market capitalization for each of the 16 Zacks sectors. Since the S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index, each sector s market cap share is also its index weight. The Finance sector is about even with the Technology sector in terms of earnings contribution even though it carries a smaller weight in the index. 21

22 % Share of Mkt Cap Consumer Discrt 5.8% Retail 9.6% Medical 13.7% Consumer Stapls 8.8% Auto/Tires/Trks 1.2% Transportation 2.1% Utilities 3.3% Business Svcs 3.5% Industrial Prod 1.8% Basic Materials 2.4% Construction 0.7% Conglomerates 3.3% Finance 15.9% Computer & Tech 19.7% Oils/Energy 6.7% Aerospace 1.7% 22

23 Share of 2016 Income Consumer Discrt 5.2% Retail 7.6% Medical 15.5% Consumer Stapls 6.8% Auto/Tires/Trks 2.5% Transportation 3.0% Utilities 3.3% Business Svcs 2.8% Industrial Prod 1.8% Basic Materials 2.5% Construction 0.7% Conglomerates 3.1% Finance 21.3% Computer & Tech 21.0% Oils/Energy Aerospace 1.2% 1.7% Want more information about this report or about Zacks Investment Research? Contact Terry Ruffolo at or at Visit the Zacks Media Room at zacks.com/media-room Disclosure: This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. 23