Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG January, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-92-3 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 32-49-3 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Sectors LTEG 3 S&P Sectors STEG 4 S&P Sectors PEG Ratio S&P Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy 9 Financials Health Care 11 Industrials Information Technology 13 Materials 14 Telecom Services Utilities 1 January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
S&P Sectors LTEG 24 22 1 1 14 Figure 1. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (S&P LTEG* by sector, percent) (1.) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 INDUSTRIALS (.) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 14 13 11 9 11 9 CONSUMER STAPLES (.3) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (14.2) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 13 11 4 3 ENERGY (2.) MATERIALS (.9) 22 1 14 - - 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 14 FINANCIALS (.1) TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (2.1) 4 2 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 14 13 11 9 HEALTH CARE (.) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 UTILITIES (4.) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 4 2 * Analysts consensus expected long-term earnings growth rate over the next five years. Page 3 / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
S&P Sectors STEG 4 4 3 3 2 Figure 2. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (S&P STEG* by sector, percent) (9.) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 INDUSTRIALS (4.1) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 3 - - 9 CONSUMER STAPLES (.) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (11.4) 3 3 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 11 13 14 1 1 1-4 3 3 24 1 1 - ENERGY (3.2) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 MATERIALS (.) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 4 - -4 4 FINANCIALS (11.3) TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (3.4) 3 - - 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 11 13 14 1 1 1-9 HEALTH CARE UTILITIES (.3) 3 (.4) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - * Analysts consensus expected short-term earnings growth rate over the next 2 weeks. Page 4 / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
S&P Sectors PEG Ratio 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.. Figure 3. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (S&P PEG ratio* by sector) (1.1) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 INDUSTRIALS (2.1) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 2.2 2. 1. 1. 1.2 1... 3. 3. CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 1. 1.4 2. 2. 1.2 1. 1. (2.3) (1.2). 1. 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 11 13 14 1 1 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ENERGY (1.2) MATERIALS (2.2) 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.. 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 11 13 14 1 1 1. 2.2 2. 1. 1. 1.2 1.. FINANCIALS (1.) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (.9) 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 4 3 2 1 1. HEALTH CARE UTILITIES 9 1. 1.2 (1.3) (4.2) 1. 3. 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 1 * Sector s forward P/E divided by sector s consensus projected -year earnings growth rate. Page / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
3 3 Figure 4. S&P LTEG & STEG S&P 3 3 2 LTEG* (11.9) STEG* (11.) 2 - - 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - - * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 3 Figure. S&P VALUATION 3 2 Forward P/E* (1.2) 2 1. PEG Ratio** (1.4) 1. 1. 1. 1.2 1.2 1. 1.. 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1. Monthly through December, then weekly. ** P/E relative to consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
Figure. Consumer Discretionary S&P CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY LTEG VS STEG STEG capped at % 4 LTEG* (1.) STEG* (9.) 4 3 3 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 3 3 Figure. S&P CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY VALUATION 3 3 2 Forward P/E* (1.3) 2 3. 3. 2. 2. Relative P/E** (1.1) PEG Ratio*** (1.1) 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.. 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 1.. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
Figure. S&P CONSUMER STAPLES LTEG VS STEG Consumer Staples LTEG* (.3) STEG* (.) 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 3 2 Figure 9. S&P CONSUMER STAPLES VALUATION 3 2 Forward P/E* (19.3) 3. 3. 2. Relative P/E** (1.1) PEG Ratio*** (2.3) 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.. 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
Figure. S&P ENERGY LTEG VS STEG Energy LTEG* (2.) STEG* (.) STEG capped at % 2 2-2 -2-199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. Figure 11. S&P ENERGY VALUATION 4 3 Forward P/E* (32.4) 4 3 3. 3. 2. Relative P/E** (1.9) PEG Ratio*** (1.2) Relative P/E capped at 3. PEG capped at 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.. 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 2. 1. 1.. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 9 / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
Figure. S&P FINANCIALS LTEG VS STEG Financials STEG capped at % 4 4 4 3 3 2 LTEG* (.1) STEG* (11.3) 4 3 3 2 - - 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - - * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. Figure 13. S&P FINANCIALS VALUATION Forward P/E* (14.1) 2. Relative P/E** (.) 2. 2. PEG Ratio*** (1.) 2. 1. 1. 1.. 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 1.. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
Figure 14. S&P HEALTH CARE LTEG VS STEG Health Care LTEG* (.) STEG* (.4) 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 3 3 Figure. S&P HEALTH CARE VALUATION 3 3 2 2 Forward P/E* (14.4) 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.2 1.2 1... Relative P/E** (.) PEG Ratio*** (1.3) 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 1... ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 11 / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
2 Figure 1. S&P INDUSTRIALS LTEG VS STEG Industrials 2 LTEG* (.) STEG* (4.1) - - - - - - - 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 2 Figure 1. S&P INDUSTRIALS VALUATION 2 Forward P/E* (1.9) 2.2 2. 1. 1. Relative P/E** (1.) PEG Ratio*** (2.1) 2.2 2. 1. 1. 1.2 1... 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 1.2 1... ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
4 Figure 1. S&P INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTEG VS STEG LTEG* (14.2) STEG* (11.4) Information Technology 4 3 3-199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 4 3 Figure 19. S&P INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY VALUATION Forward P/E* (1.) 4 3 3. 2. 2. Relative P/E** (1.) PEG Ratio*** (1.2) 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.. 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 1.. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 13 / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
Figure. S&P MATERIALS LTEG VS STEG Materials STEG capped at % 4 4 3 3 - - - -3-4 - LTEG* (.9) STEG* (.) 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - -3-4 - * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 3 Figure 21. S&P MATERIALS VALUATION 3 2 Forward P/E* (1.1) 2 3. 2. 2. 1. Relative P/E** (1.) PEG Ratio*** (2.2) 3. 2. 2. 1. 1... 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 1... ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 14 / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
3 2 Figure 22. Telecom Services S&P TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES LTEG VS STEG LTEG* (2.1) STEG* (3.4) 3 2 - - - - - - 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - - * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 3 3 2 Figure 23. S&P TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES VALUATION 3 3 2 4 3 2 1 Forward P/E* (14.2) Relative P/E** (.) PEG Ratio*** (.9) 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 4 3 2 1 ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
Figure 24. S&P UTILITIES LTEG VS STEG Utilities - LTEG* (4.) STEG* (.3) - - 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 - * STEG: - month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. Figure 2. S&P UTILITIES VALUATION Forward P/E* (1.) 9 4 3 2 1 Relative P/E** (1.) PEG Ratio*** (4.2) 199 199 199 199 1999 1 2 3 4 9 11 13 14 1 1 1 9 4 3 2 1 ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 1 / January, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors STEG, LTEG, & PEG www.
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