The Fall of the Final Mercantilism Labour Mobility in the Caribbean and the World, from Arthur Lewis to the 21 st Century Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Michael Clemens November 3, 2010
1 2 Migration happens when development doesn t. Skilled emigration is brain drain. 3 Migration policy can never change.
1 2 Migration happens when development doesn t. 3 Migration is a form of development. Skilled emigration is brain drain. Migration policy can never change.
1 2 Migration happens when development doesn t. 3 Migration is a form of development. Skilled emigration is brain drain. Skilled emigration is a symptom. Migration policy can never change.
1 2 Migration happens when development doesn t. 3 Migration is a form of development. Skilled emigration is brain drain. Skilled emigration is a symptom. Migration policy can never change. Better policy is possible.
1 Migration happens when development doesn t. Migration is a form of development.
Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 10,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 Korea 10,000 China 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 10,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 10,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Colombia Egypt India Ghana DR Congo
Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 10,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
USA France 24 small Carib. Jamaica Haiti
Fraction of US unskilled wage 0.8 0.6 Great Britain 0.4 Germany Ireland 0.2 Norway Sweden 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 Year
Yemen Nigeria Egypt Haiti Cambodia Sierra Leone Ghana Indonesia Pakistan Venezuela Cameroon Vietnam India Jordan Ecuador Bolivia Sri Lanka Nepal Bangladesh Uganda Ethiopia Guyana Philippines Peru Brazil Jamaica Chile Nicaragua Panama Uruguay Guatemala Colombia Paraguay South Africa Turkey Argentina Mexico Belize Thailand Costa Rica Morocco Dominican 20 18 16 14 40th percentile 50th percentile 60th percentile 70th percentile 12 R e 10 8 6 4 2 0
. Miami: $292 billion CARICOM: $64 billion OECS: $6 billion
2 Skilled emigration is brain drain. Skilled emigration is a symptom.
0 20 40 60 80 100 Grenada St. Vincent & G. St. Kitts & N. Tonga Antigua & B. Dominica Seychelles St. Lucia Belize Barbados Bahamas Malta Guyana Samoa Jamaica Cape Verde Gambia Fiji Mauritius Sierra Leone Haiti Trinidad & Tob. Suriname Liberia Marshall Islands Lebanon Laos Nauru Micronesia Eritrea Cyprus Somalia Tuvalu Palau Guinea-Bissau Kiribati Comoros Sao Tome & P. Iceland San Marino Liechtenstein New Zealand Brunei East Timor Monaco Eq. Guinea Luxembourg Andorra Vanuatu Djibouti Solomon Islands Bahrain Ghana Mozambique Kenya Uganda Angola Sri Lanka Vietnam Afghanistan Dominican Rep. Portugal United Kingdom Mexico Pakistan Nigeria South Africa Bangladesh Brazil United States India China 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 Population (millions, log scale)
0 20 40 60 80 100 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 Population (millions, log scale)
0 20 40 60 80 100 USA 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 Population (millions, log scale)
0 20 40 60 80 100 USA Brazil 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 Population (millions, log scale)
0 20 40 60 80 100 USA Philippines Brazil 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 Population (millions, log scale)
0 20 40 60 80 100 Kenya USA Philippines Brazil 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 Population (millions, log scale)
What causes loss of professionals? Graduates are not in the Caribbean because they are emigrating. Prices are high because merchants are raising them.
ALB DZA AGO ATG ARG ARM AUS AUT AZE BHS BHR BGD BRB BLR BEL BLZ BEN BOL BIH BWA BRA BGR BFA BDI KHM CMR CAN CPV CAF TCD CHL CHN COL COM COG CRI CIV HRV CYP CZE DNK DJI DMA DOM ECU EGY SLV GNQ ERI EST ETH FJI FIN FRA GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GIN GNB GUY HTI HND HUN ISL IND IDN IRN IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KEN KWT KGZ LAO LVA LBN LSO LTU LUX MDG MWI MYS MLI MLT MRT MUS MEX MNG MAR MOZ NAM NPL NLD NZL NIC NER NOR OMN PAK PAN PNG PRY PER PHL POL PRT KOR MDA ROM RUS RWA WSM SAU SEN SLE SGP SVK SVN SLB ZAF ESP LKA SDN SWZ SWE CHE SYR TJK THA MKD TGO TON TTO TUN TUR TKM UGA UKR GBR TZA USA URY UZB VUT VEN VNM YEM ZMB ZWE 1 5 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000 2500 5000 10000 25000 50000 GDP per capita (PPP)
ALB DZA AGO ATG ARG ARM AUS AUT AZE BHS BHR BGD BRB BLR BEL BLZ BEN BOL BIH BWA BRA BGR BFA BDI KHM CMR CAN CPV CAF TCD CHL CHN COL COM COG CRI CIV HRV CYP CZE DNK DJI DMA DOM ECU EGY SLV GNQ ERI EST ETH FJI FIN FRA GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GIN GNB GUY HTI HND HUN ISL IND IDN IRN IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KEN KWT KGZ LAO LVA LBN LSO LTU LUX MDG MWI MYS MLI MLT MRT MUS MEX MNG MAR MOZ NAM NPL NLD NZL NIC NER NOR OMN PAK PAN PNG PRY PER POL PRT KOR MDA ROM RUS RWA WSM SAU SEN SLE SGP SVK SVN SLB ZAF ESP LKA SDN SWZ SWE CHE SYR TJK THA MKD TGO TON TTO TUN TUR TKM UGA UKR GBR TZA USA URY UZB VUT VEN VNM YEM ZMB ZWE PHL 1 5 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000 2500 5000 10000 25000 50000 GDP per capita (PPP)
ALB DZA AGO ATG ARG ARM AUS AZE BHS BHR BGD BRB BLR BEL BLZ BEN BOL BIH BWA BRA BGR BFA BDI KHM CMR CAN CPV CAF TCD CHL CHN COL COM COG CRI CIV HRV CYP CZE DNK DJI DMA DOM ECU EGY SLV GNQ ERI EST ETH FJI FIN FRA GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GIN GNB GUY HTI HND HUN ISL IND IDN IRN IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KEN KWT KGZ LAO LVA LBN LSO LTU LUX MDG MWI MYS MLI MLT MRT MUS MEX MNG MAR MOZ NAM NPL NLD NZL NIC NER NOR OMN PAK PAN PNG PRY PER POL PRT KOR MDA ROM RUS RWA WSM SAU SEN SLE SGP SVK SVN SLB ZAF ESP LKA SDN SWZ SWE CHE SYR TJK THA MKD TGO TON TTO TUN TUR TKM UGA UKR TZA USA URY UZB VUT VEN VNM YEM ZMB ZWE AUT PHL GBR 1 5 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000 2500 5000 10000 25000 50000 GDP per capita (PPP)
3 Migration policy can never change. Better policy is possible.
New York Times, Nov. 14, 1919
New York Times, March 23, 1913
Income per capita, US$/year South Africa 1994 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
South Africa, Comprehensive Welfare Index Blacks 1993 Blacks 2005 Bhorat, Westhuizen, and Goga (2007), University of Cape Town
South Africa, Comprehensive Welfare Index Whites 1993 Whites 2005 Bhorat, Westhuizen, and Goga (2007), University of Cape Town
Income per capita, US$/year South Africa 1994 World 2010 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
mclemens@cgdev.org
100 Haitians who aren t poor Poverty line $10/day
100 Haitians who aren t poor
Alternatives Performance incentives Subsidize most needed skills Attack domestic barriers Regional centers of excellence Innovate in education finance
Three problems Root causes Information barriers Ethics
Wages of average US worker Wages of Haitian 3% +1% +680% Borjas Peri