Southwark Housing Market Trends Bulletin No. 50 3rd Quarter 2015/16 (October-December)

Southwark Housing Market Trends Bulletin No. 50 3rd Quarter 2015/16 (October-December) January 2016 www.southwark.gov.uk

Contents 1.0 Executive Summary... 2 2.0 Introduction... 3 3.0 National and London housing market... 5 3.1 National house prices... 5 3.2 London house prices... 6 3.3 National and London rents... 8 4.0 Southwark Housing Market... 9 4.1 Southwark house prices... 10 4.2 Southwark rents... 19 4.3 Southwark room rents... 24 1.0 Executive Summary National House Prices (Rightmove) The average national property asking price in January was 290,963. This was up 0.5% from the previous month and up 6.5% in the last year. London and Southwark house prices (Rightmove except 7 th bullet) London Average property asking price (Rightmove), January 2016: 610,741 % change in the last month (Dec to Jan): -0.9% % change in the last year (Jan 2015 to Jan 2016): 7.8%. Southwark Average Property Asking Price (Rightmove), January 2016: 645,339 % change in the last month (Dec to Jan): 0% % change in the last year (Jan 2015 to Jan 2016): 9.1% Using Hometrack 1 data to compare Southwark prices with data 6 months ago: prices rose by 5.0%. Prices increased by 10.8% since Nov 2014. The methodology used is explained in the introductory table. National rents HomeLet Rental Index- December 2015 Excluding London rents, the average UK rent for tenancies in the three months leading up to December 2015 was 739pcm. This was 4.9% higher than in the same period last year ( 704pcm). The average cost of renting a home in London was 8% more expensive than in December 2014 at 1,523 per month 1 Hometrack- based on sales and mortgage valuations data 2

RICS Residential Market Survey- December 2015 (previously RICS Residential Lettings Survey) The price rise is being driven by a supply imbalance with more buyers than sellers for the eleventh consecutive month New instructions to sell rose for the first time since January 2015 Respondents expect average rents to rise by 5% each year over the next 5 years Southwark rents (analysis of data from Zoopla) At the beginning of January 2016 the median monthly asking rent for a 2 bed property in Southwark was 1,950. Median rent levels rose for 1 bedroom, 3 bedroom and properties with 4 or more bedrooms over the last 6 months. For properties with 2 bedrooms there was no change and studios saw levels fall by -7.7%. 2.0 Introduction The increasing complexity of the housing market makes it important for housing strategists and policy makers to understand what is happening locally so they can plan responses to changes in housing supply and demand. This bulletin of market trends provides an understanding of house prices and private sector rents movements. It is produced by the Strategy & Performance Improvement Team, Southwark Council. We provide these bulletins quarterly for Southwark and twice a year for the South East London sub-region 2. We address market trends nationally, London-wide and locally/across the subregion, broken down by postcode areas and wards. Data has mainly been obtained from the secondary sources listed in the table: 2 The South East London sub-region consists of the boroughs Bexley, Bromley, Greenwich, Southwark and Lewisham 3

Data source Used for Dates covered Restrictions Rightmove Hometrack RICS Residential Market Survey (previously RICS Residential Lettings Survey) HomeLet Rental Index Zoopla (which merged with Findaproperty.com and Primelocation.com in 2012) National and regional house sales data analysis Southwark and subregional house sales. National and regional rents data analysis. National and regional rents data analysis Southwark and subregional rents data, excluding rooms. Based on properties put on sale on Rightmove between around the 7 th of the month prior to the title month and around the 10th of the title month. Hometrack provide data 2 months in arrears of when the Bulletin is due. i.e. when doing January s bulletin Hometrack supply data up until month ending November of the previous year. The date we give in this bulletin is the date we downloaded data. The RICS document is published two months prior to our publication date. This data is for the 3 months leading up to the RICS title date. The HomeLet Rental Index uses data acquired from the previous month. The January 2013 release therefore uses data from December 2012. Advertisements for rental property are downloaded and analysed in the first week after the end of the quarter. - Based on advertised prices not achieved prices. - Covers approximately 90% of the national sales market. It is based on a combination of land registry, mortgage approval data and surveyor valuations, over the 6 months prior to the date. This data is based on surveys of lettings agents, some rents will not go through lettings agents. Some of this data is the perceptions of lettings agents. No actual rent figures are given and these are hard to find. The HomeLet Rental Index shows agreed rental prices rather than prices that are advertised on property portals. - Data samples can be small for particular property types. - The data is advertised data, not rent levels actually achieved - This is based on a large sample Spareroom.co.uk Southwark and sub regional rents rooms data A high level of attention has been paid to the accuracy and reliability of data. Some of the information comes from external sources and is referenced. The intention is to provide a regular source of data that provides up to date market intelligence and identifies trends in market movement to inform development planning, as well as decision-making in other areas of housing activity. We are interested in any views you might have on the content of these bulletins and would particularly like to know what use you make of them. Many different charts and graphs are available on 4

demand. Please contact us if there is something that you need. Please contact John Morteo on 0207 525 1230 or john.morteo@southwark.gov.uk. 3.0 National and London housing market This section looks at the housing market on a national scale. It gives an overview of the trends in the national market for prices and rents. 3.1 National house prices (www.rightmove.co.uk, The Right Move House Price Index, January 2016) The national monthly rise of 0.5% was the second highest rise over Christmas since 2007. Rightmove reported that the number of interested parties was up 21%, comparing the first week of 2015 and 2016. First time buyers have more property choice and price stood still. The 6.6% increase in first time buyers properties is the biggest increase since 2007. The price stand still suggests the impending stamp duty levy could be cooling the market sooner than expected. Table 1 - National property prices and changes by region, January 2016 Avg. Price Jan 2016 Avg. Price Dec 2015 Monthly Change Avg. Price Jan 2015 Annual Change Greater London 610,741 616,548-0.9% 566,404 7.8% South West 282,373 272,823 3.5% 267,623 5.5% East of England 312,921 309,839 1.0% 285,093 9.8% East Midlands 182,319 185,577-1.8% 177,170 2.9% North East 142,005 139,449 1.8% 135,055 5.1% North West 171,588 171,310 0.2% 163,596 4.9% Yorkshire and Humberside 165,722 166,060-0.2% 161,199 2.8% South East 383,787 381,609 0.6% 357,534 7.3% Wales 166,051 163,453 1.6% 166,833-0.5% West Midlands 198,595 194,221 2.3% 189,400 4.9% England + Wales 290,963 289,452 0.5% 273,275 6.5% Source: Rightmove House Price Index January 2016 5

3.2 London house prices (www.rightmove.co.uk, January 2016) Table 1 shows that prices in Greater London have fallen by around 0.9% in the past month and have risen 7.8% over the year. Westminster saw the highest monthly price rise between December and January whilst Kensington and Chelsea saw the biggest monthly price fall. Comparing annual price increases by local authority Camden saw the largest annual price increases seeing average prices rise by 38.1%. In contrast, Haringey saw prices fall by 8.1%. The average London property asking price in January was 610,741. The average Southwark property asking price in January was 645,339. In Southwark, prices remained the same over the past month but rose 9.1% over the past year. Table 2 The 5 largest rises and highest falls in average monthly asking price in London in January 2016. London's top 5 by average price change Monthly change London's bottom 5 by average price change Monthly change Westminster 15.8% Kensington and Chelsea -9.7% Camden 10.8% Merton -8.9% Hillingdon 5.4% Haringey -7.7% Barnet 3.1% Hounslow -6.2% Barking and Dagenham 2.6% Harrow -5.0% Source: Rightmove Survey, January 2016 6

Table 3 Average prices and price changes in London Boroughs in January 2016 Borough Avg. Price Jan 2016 Avg. Price Dec 2015 Monthly Change Avg. Price Jan 2015 Annual Change Kensington and Chelsea 2,256,043 2,497,560-9.70% 2,193,008 2.90% City of Westminster 2,044,240 1,764,956 15.80% 2,055,666-0.60% Camden 1,338,376 1,207,626 10.80% 968,926 38.10% Hammersmith and Fulham 1,072,983 1,095,788-2.10% 1,009,772 6.30% Richmond-upon- Thames 906,934 930,316-2.50% 780,673 16.20% Wandsworth 808,651 805,834 0.30% 812,731-0.50% Islington 734,066 770,411-4.70% 680,546 7.90% Barnet 703,248 681,923 3.10% 643,260 3.60% Southwark 645,339 645,101 0.00% 591,355 9.10% Hackney 634,150 650,657-2.50% 591,719 7.20% Kingston-upon-Thames 633,588 632,897 0.10% 593,148 6.80% Merton 611,062 670,771-8.90% 589,704 3.60% Ealing 609,885 628,941-3.00% 565,818 7.80% Lambeth 608,077 623,310-2.40% 597,542 1.80% Brent 601,273 619,434-2.90% 580,877 3.50% Tower Hamlets 584,205 599,095-2.50% 556,138 5.00% Haringey 558,884 605,403-7.70% 608,039-8.10% Harrow 521,899 549,153-5.00% 470,121 11.00% Hounslow 514,740 548,580-6.20% 464,195 10.90% Bromley 498,352 500,570-0.40% 483,060 3.20% Hillingdon 465,330 441,482 5.40% 394,327 18.00% Lewisham 453,735 442,528 2.50% 411,682 10.20% Enfield 447,192 438,179 2.10% 402,805 11.00% Greenwich 441,021 443,377-0.50% 386,785 14.00% Waltham Forest 439,241 431,917 1.70% 380,583 15.40% Redbridge 432,125 445,398-3.00% 380,425 13.60% Newham 401,945 396,012 1.50% 332,337 20.90% Croydon 399,068 393,145 1.50% 355,606 12.20% Sutton 397,705 399,890-0.50% 372,913 6.60% Havering 359,847 351,506 2.40% 320,062 12.40% Bexley 337,431 332,038 1.60% 297,761 13.30% Barking and Dagenham 287,364 280,128 2.60% 240,651 19.40% Source: Rightmove House Price Index January 2016 7

3.3 National and London rents RICS UK Residential Market Survey- December 2015 (previously RICS UK Lettings Survey) The price rise is being driven by a supply imbalance with more buyers than sellers for the eleventh consecutive month. The high number of buyers last month might have been due to unseasonably mild weather. New instructions to sell rose for the first time since January 2015 Respondents expect average rents to rise by 5% each year over the next 5 years The following bullet points are some of the key points from the HomeLet Rental Index- December 2015 Excluding London rents, the average UK rent for tenancies in the three months leading up to December 2015 was 739pcm. This was 4.9% higher than in the same period last year ( 704pcm). Average rental values increased in ten out of twelve regions of the UK, compared with this time last year. And in London: The average cost of renting a home in London was 8% more expensive than in December 2015 at 1,523 per month. Average rents in London are 106% higher than the rest of the UK. Also from the Homelet Rental Index- Dec 2015 Homelet have also analysed the rents charged on all new tenancies between the 1 st January 2015 and the 31 st December 2015 by London borough. The latest rental index shows the average rent charged during that period and the % increase since the same period the year before: London borough Avg rent 12 months to Dec 15 Annual variance Bexley 1043 9% Bromley 1306 7% Greenwich 1460 9% Lewisham 1404 13% Southwark 1780 9% 8

4.0 Southwark Housing Market In this section we focus on the Southwark housing market. We examine prices and rents in detail across small geographic areas such as wards and postcodes and identify the costs of different housing types within these areas. Our information on prices is taken from Hometrack s Real Demand programme and the information on rents is taken from Zoopla.com. A big difference is that Real Demand measures its areas in wards, whereas Zoopla.com provides its information by postcode. It is hard to show how wards and postcodes align. The following table shows broadly how areas and postcodes relate to each other. A map is also included, Southwark is the purple borough. Postcode Main Area Postcode Main Area SE1 Borough, Waterloo SE17 Walworth SE5 Camberwell SE21 Dulwich SE11 Kennington SE22 Dulwich SE15 Peckham SE24 Herne Hill SE16 Bermondsey, Rotherhithe Below are descriptions of some common data terms used in this section: Median. This is the middle value of a set of data and represents the average price of a property Lower quartile. This is calculated by ordering the data from the smallest to largest and finding the value that lays 25% of the way up the data. This represents the more affordable properties Upper quartile. This is calculated by ordering the data from the smallest to the largest and finding the value that lays 75% of the way up the data. This represents the most expensive properties. 9

Map1 Postcode districts within Southwark 4.1 Southwark house prices We will now have a detailed look at house prices looking at these based on local authority areas. The following tables display a comprehensive price list for housing in Southwark at a borough and ward level for both the average price and the lower quartile price. Borough averages for the South East London sub region and Lambeth are also listed for comparison. The data for November 2015 was downloaded in January 2016. The Southwark average house price (Hometrack) for November 2015 was 586,698, an increase of 10.8% since November 2014. House prices vary across the borough with properties in Cathedrals ward costing almost twice as much as those in Peckham, per square metre. 10

Table 4a Average prices in Southwark by ward and housing type, Nov 2015 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Borough and Wards Overall Average Detached Semi Terraced Flat Sq Metre Sq Foot Bexley 324,822 521,820 376,047 300,337 192,666 3,389 315 Bromley 488,836 853,763 501,766 409,655 303,571 4,218 392 Greenwich 442,613 1,016,466 580,933 475,312 337,292 4,623 429 Lambeth 610,342 1,455,514 1,074,094 886,260 464,164 6,464 601 Lewisham 435,573 919,048 678,844 527,731 324,230 4,903 456 Southwark 586,698 1,543,326 1,067,294 779,314 467,424 6,696 622 Brunswick Park 569,688 n/a 741,250 911,670 380,995 6,076 564 Camberwell Green 403,053 n/a n/a 640,000 396,925 6,203 576 Cathedrals 668,039 n/a n/a 1,298,571 632,729 9,028 839 Chaucer 573,610 n/a n/a 750,000 572,274 8,224 764 College 730,997 1,765,885 1,144,534 788,444 334,421 5,587 519 East Dulwich 719,684 850,000 1,022,699 873,588 448,239 6,739 626 East Walworth 471,898 n/a n/a 889,688 406,362 6,156 572 Faraday 437,136 n/a 480,000 670,583 381,615 6,136 570 Grange 606,437 415,000 635,500 804,243 591,830 7,815 726 Livesey 382,839 450,000 n/a 585,068 329,166 5,284 491 Newington 480,094 n/a 1,100,000 763,826 428,314 6,771 629 Nunhead 506,403 973,333 670,000 649,074 351,901 5,617 522 Peckham 340,671 n/a 500,000 484,177 302,271 4,809 447 Peckham Rye 619,030 1,916,667 945,500 712,028 405,408 6,075 564 Riverside 730,493 550,000 672,000 724,444 733,066 8,647 803 Rotherhithe 456,919 n/a 538,900 644,788 413,522 6,507 605 South Bermondsey 376,436 n/a 510,000 560,500 322,808 5,795 538 South Camberwell 678,164 1,433,175 1,196,080 808,593 429,273 6,711 623 Surrey Docks 479,259 658,997 586,000 639,635 439,221 6,776 629 The Lane 616,426 n/a 772,846 846,975 425,358 6,869 638 Village 1,192,524 2,446,875 1,557,827 1,071,850 499,024 7,369 685 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 11

Table 4b Lower quartile prices in Southwark by ward and housing type, Nov 2015 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Borough and Sq Overall Detached Semi Terraced Flat Wards Metre Sq Foot Bexley 245,000 370,000 320,000 262,000 162,000 2,917 271 Bromley 310,000 580,000 389,950 316,000 240,000 3,571 332 Greenwich 275,500 500,000 355,000 300,000 230,000 3,418 318 Lambeth 375,000 800,000 716,000 595,000 350,000 5,217 485 Lewisham 290,000 625,000 450,000 400,000 255,000 4,044 376 Southwark 367,500 830,000 735,000 600,000 333,000 5,528 514 Brunswick Park 337,000 n/a 700,000 690,000 280,000 5,417 503 Camberwell Green 340,000 n/a n/a 825,000 340,000 5,806 539 Cathedrals 450,000 n/a n/a 1,185,000 450,000 7,410 688 Chaucer 395,000 n/a n/a 750,000 395,000 6,792 631 College 307,500 1,000,000 717,500 673,000 275,000 4,732 440 East Dulwich 467,500 850,000 900,000 775,000 395,000 5,966 554 East Walworth 310,000 n/a n/a 750,000 295,000 5,188 482 Faraday 340,000 n/a 480,000 450,000 315,500 5,556 516 Grange 403,000 415,000 521,000 765,000 399,995 6,432 598 Livesey 295,000 450,000 n/a 450,000 278,000 4,355 405 Newington 380,000 n/a 1,100,000 580,000 375,000 5,980 556 Nunhead 325,000 825,000 670,000 578,000 285,000 4,762 442 Peckham 275,000 n/a 500,000 386,000 270,000 3,796 353 Peckham Rye 389,950 1,325,000 750,000 622,500 325,000 5,081 472 Riverside 467,000 550,000 650,000 610,000 455,000 6,964 647 Rotherhithe 340,000 n/a 486,000 550,000 325,000 5,357 498 South Bermondsey 300,000 n/a 510,000 450,000 285,000 5,283 491 South Camberwell 400,000 1,400,000 1,000,000 558,000 350,000 5,750 534 Surrey Docks 380,000 730,995 525,000 550,000 370,000 5,944 552 The Lane 385,000 n/a 625,000 670,000 335,000 6,044 562 Village 670,000 1,500,000 1,300,050 775,000 400,000 6,367 591 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 12

Table 5a Average prices in Southwark by ward, housing type and size, Nov 2015 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Area 1 bed Prices (Flat) 2 bed Prices (Flat) 2 bed Prices (House) 3 bed Prices (House) 4 bed Prices (House) Bexley 163,324 212,007 288,785 343,479 469,561 Bromley 239,094 321,772 340,615 462,910 649,929 Greenwich 270,877 342,537 366,716 448,099 727,145 Lambeth 361,110 483,143 622,232 706,763 1,036,082 Lewisham 265,949 347,312 409,844 522,618 706,360 Southwark 383,185 499,192 588,037 728,658 1,005,339 Brunswick Park Ward 312,779 437,531 639,063 762,500 996,000 Camberwell Green 324,643 445,838 n/a n/a 480,000 Cathedrals Ward 505,439 687,943 n/a 1,160,000 1,388,333 Chaucer Ward 441,567 574,654 n/a n/a n/a College Ward 279,222 364,474 n/a 726,045 1,018,264 East Dulwich Ward 385,125 474,731 665,033 842,470 989,593 East Walworth Ward 337,384 421,383 n/a 756,875 1,022,500 Faraday Ward 341,429 453,500 460,000 646,750 n/a Grange Ward 418,979 633,053 855,250 711,234 n/a Livesey Ward 288,042 373,788 469,983 544,375 736,667 Newington Ward 384,928 482,287 521,000 730,667 885,625 Nunhead Ward 300,101 377,719 586,594 656,699 788,929 Peckham Ward 265,902 317,670 441,300 492,974 576,667 Peckham Rye Ward 347,833 419,493 596,889 735,764 782,438 Riverside Ward 554,806 807,287 643,333 720,000 n/a Rotherhithe Ward 335,995 492,015 523,533 714,250 968,333 South Bermondsey 268,556 342,567 476,000 596,846 662,500 South Camberwell 356,319 452,339 541,444 701,553 1,189,403 Surrey Docks Ward 350,063 468,246 531,778 658,363 775,143 The Lane Ward 357,039 445,572 663,971 842,651 921,998 Village Ward 377,833 541,346 867,500 844,500 1,315,163 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 13

Table 5b Lower quartile prices in Southwark by ward, housing type and size, Nov 2015 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Area 1 bed Prices (Flat) 2 bed Prices (Flat) 2 bed Prices (House) 3 bed Prices (House) 4 bed Prices (House) Bexley 139,250 185,000 257,000 298,625 386,250 Bromley 200,000 273,750 284,000 369,463 508,000 Greenwich 185,000 240,000 270,000 320,000 480,000 Lambeth 295,750 375,000 447,750 520,000 765,000 Lewisham 215,000 280,750 296,000 410,000 569,250 Southwark 295,500 370,000 500,000 600,000 835,000 Brunswick Park Ward 260,000 346,750 597,500 717,500 824,000 Camberwell Green 273,750 431,250 n/a n/a 307,500 Cathedrals Ward 400,000 547,500 n/a 1,147,500 1,350,000 Chaucer Ward 358,750 391,500 n/a n/a n/a College Ward 258,500 317,500 n/a 658,250 790,000 East Dulwich Ward 346,250 435,000 640,000 785,000 889,750 East Walworth Ward 267,375 325,000 n/a 570,000 835,000 Faraday Ward 306,250 400,000 450,000 585,875 n/a Grange Ward 327,500 458,125 842,750 635,500 n/a Livesey Ward 246,875 313,888 425,000 450,000 730,000 Newington Ward 310,000 390,000 515,000 630,375 610,000 Nunhead Ward 254,000 300,000 548,750 600,000 640,000 Peckham Ward 220,000 280,000 380,000 455,000 477,500 Peckham Rye Ward 296,250 330,000 565,000 634,375 660,000 Riverside Ward 430,000 512,500 620,000 610,000 n/a Rotherhithe Ward 222,500 388,375 489,000 640,000 920,000 South Bermondsey 235,000 316,250 435,000 540,000 656,250 South Camberwell 261,906 390,000 482,000 540,000 968,750 Surrey Docks Ward 325,000 410,000 515,000 592,500 722,500 The Lane Ward 305,000 377,500 597,500 760,000 767,500 Village Ward 339,250 479,000 858,750 647,500 1,100,000 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) In the next graph, Graph 1, we can see the trends in house prices over the last few years. There is a clear gap between Southwark and Lambeth and the others in terms of average prices. These graphs are based on an average over the previous 6 months as well as land registry data. 14

Graph 1 Average price changes in South East London and Lambeth, May 2007- Nov 2015 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) Graph 2 Lower quartile price changes in South East London and Lambeth, May 2007- Nov 2015 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 15

The next table is a detailed ward level look at price changes in Southwark since the last Southwark Market Trends Bulletin (No.48), for the average prices and lower quartile prices. Table 6 Average and lower quartile price comparison, May 2015- November 2015 Name Average Q1 2015/16 Average Q3, 2015/16 % change LQ Q1, 2015/16 LQ Q3, 2015/16 % change Bexley (LB) 297,413 324,822 9.2 224,000 245,000 9.4 Bromley 445,715 488,836 9.7 282,500 310,000 9.7 Greenwich 390,846 442,613 13.2 250,000 275,500 10.2 Lambeth 539,758 610,342 13.1 350,000 375,000 7.1 Lewisham 401,482 435,573 8.5 269,995 290,000 7.4 Southwark 558,724 586,698 5.0 340,000 367,500 8.1 Brunswick Park 560,830 569,688 1.6 307,000 337,000 9.8 Camberwell Green 459,867 403,053-12.4 300,000 340,000 13.3 Cathedrals 738,888 668,039-9.6 450,000 450,000 0.0 Chaucer 593,854 573,610-3.4 395,524 395,000-0.1 College 509,013 730,997 43.6 280,000 307,500 9.8 East Dulwich 673,232 719,684 6.9 450,000 467,500 3.9 East Walworth 378,178 471,898 24.8 285,000 310,000 8.8 Faraday 413,512 437,136 5.7 350,000 340,000-2.9 Grange 561,880 606,437 7.9 385,000 403,000 4.7 Livesey 338,423 382,839 13.1 250,000 295,000 18.0 Newington 427,184 480,094 12.4 330,000 380,000 15.2 Nunhead 448,874 506,403 12.8 310,000 325,000 4.8 Peckham Rye 559,894 619030 10.6 357,000 389,950 9.2 Peckham 310,634 340,671 9.7 250,000 275,000 10.0 Riverside 657,057 730,493 11.2 385,000 467,000 21.3 Rotherhithe 480,561 456,919-4.9 378,000 340,000-10.1 South Bermondsey 375,789 376,436 0.2 280,000 300,000 7.1 South Camberwell 535,603 678,164 26.6 340,000 400,000 17.6 Surrey Docks 486,134 479,259-1.4 395,000 380,000-3.8 The Lane 551,067 616,426 11.9 350,000 385,000 10.0 Village 1,224,620 1,192,524-2.6 615,000 670,000 8.9 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 16

Map 2 Lower quartile South East London and Lambeth overall prices by ward, Nov 2015 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) Map 3 South East London and Lambeth annual change in average prices by ward, Nov 2015 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 17

Map 4 South East London and Lambeth three year change in average prices by ward, Nov 2015 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) Graph 3 and 4 Average (Graph 3) and Lower Quartile (Graph 4) prices across the Southwark borough between May 2010 and Nov 2015 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 18

Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 4.2 Southwark rents This section displays information on the data on a postcode basis and for properties advertised on the internet. This information was downloaded in January 2016 from Zoopla. The median monthly rent for a 2 bedroom property in Southwark in January 2016 was 1,950. However, prices vary across the borough (see Map 5). Table 7 shows that SE1 has the most expensive rents in the borough for properties of all sizes, except those with 4 bedrooms plus. SE21 is most expensive for 4 bedroom plus properties. Table 7 shows that the cheapest lower quartile rents can be found in SE15 and SE22, whilst the cheapest average (median) rents are in SE5 (for 3 beds), SE15 (for 2 or 4 beds+), SE21 (for studios) and SE24 (for 1 beds). 19

Table 7 Advertised monthly private sector rents, January 2016, by property type/size and postcode. The Southwark average excludes SE11. (Please exercise caution when using small sample sizes. * indicates the sample is equal or less than 3) (Red is highest value, by property size, and blue is lowest value). In previous bulletins we have downloaded advertised rents from Findaproperty.com. In 2012 Zoopla merged with Findaproperty.com and Primelocation.com). Area/Postcode Size Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile Mean Count Southwark Studio 1050 1200 1408 1309 76 Southwark 1 1400 1647 1928 1792 531 Southwark 2 1650 1950 2492 2219 716 Southwark 3 2102 2427 3229 3036 232 Southwark 4+ 2535 3000 3750 3488 131 SE1 Studio 1300 1441 2004 1662 28 SE1 1 1582 1798 2145 2007 317 SE1 2 1993 2383 2817 2601 342 SE1 3 2383 3142 5092 3855 105 SE1 4+ 2514 3055 3683 3430 28 SE5 Studio 1079 1176 1296 1182 10 SE5 1 1200 1300 1452 1337 19 SE5 2 1451 1550 1695 1602 32 SE5 3 1863 1875 2210 2008 17 SE5 4+ 2535 3000 6067 4365 21 SE11 Studio * * * * 1 SE11 1 1408 1560 1712 1591 30 SE11 2 1733 1842 1993 1893 47 SE11 3 2340 2650 3445 2891 11 SE11 4+ 3000 3510 3683 3375 6 SE15 Studio 616 900 1050 864 6 SE15 1 1170 1250 1300 1394 19 SE15 2 1400 1500 1647 1663 55 SE15 3 1846 2109 2495 2136 14 SE15 4+ 2200 2496 2999 2641 15 SE16 Studio 1127 1213 1300 1195 13 SE16 1 1400 1517 1690 1562 127 SE16 2 1725 1950 2145 2092 171 SE16 3 2145 2500 2817 2768 46 SE16 4+ 2600 2654 3250 3115 20 SE17 Studio 1045 1054 1116 1088 8 SE17 1 1250 1400 1517 1413 18 SE17 2 1614 1733 1842 1750 44 SE17 3 2145 2275 2448 2339 17 SE17 4+ 3250 3250 3250 3197 9 SE21 Studio 825 825 1200 970 5 SE21 1 1150 1250 1350 1258 6 SE21 2 1400 1563 1800 1650 16 SE21 3 * * * * 3 20

SE21 4+ 2401 4500 6500 4467 6 SE22 Studio 1000 1117 1200 1149 6 SE22 1 1144 1300 1350 1291 18 SE22 2 1400 1550 1675 1694 35 SE22 3 1823 2200 2342 2103 16 SE22 4+ 2550 3000 4250 3520 27 SE24 Studio.... 0 SE24 1 1150 1226 1300 1244 7 SE24 2 1550 1703 1800 1733 21 SE24 3 1995 2059 2232 2104 14 SE24 4+ 2995 3200 3397 3327 5 Source: www.zoopla.com Table 8 The % change in lower quartile and average rents between July 2015 and January 2016. (Please exercise caution when using small sample sizes. Sample sizes of 3 or less have been omitted. Changes can be exaggerated by the condition of the property or location of the property.) Borough & Postcode Type & Size Lower Quartile % change Median % change Q1, 2015/16, Count Q3, 2015/16, Count Southwark Studio -3.0-7.7 57 76 Southwark 1 4.2 1.4 700 531 Southwark 2 1.5 0.0 929 716 Southwark 3 5.5 5.1 354 232 Southwark 4+ -2.5 1.1 191 131 SE1 Studio 5.3 6.4 30 28 SE1 1 0.0-1.2 450 317 SE1 2 2.2 3.6 493 342 SE1 3 10.0 14.6 180 105 SE1 4+ -6.4 0.7 61 28 SE5 Studio 13.7 18.0 7 10 SE5 1 0.3 8.3 23 19 SE5 2 0.1-3.3 67 32 SE5 3 0.0-5.9 34 17 SE5 4+ -13.3-4.2 24 21 SE11 Studio * * 0 1 SE11 1-4.4 0.0 33 30 SE11 2 1.2-3.4 69 47 SE11 3 8.5-0.6 20 11 SE11 4+ 11.6 0.0 29 6 SE15 Studio -25.2-34.9 4 6 SE15 1 6.8 4.2 45 19 SE15 2-2.4 0.0 64 55 SE15 3 5.2 11.0 23 14 SE15 4+ -7.7-4.8 21 15 SE16 Studio -2.8-6.7 8 13 21

SE16 1 3.7 1.1 99 127 SE16 2 4.7 5.6 176 171 SE16 3 7.6 7.9 51 46 SE16 4+ 0.0-5.8 23 20 SE17 Studio * * 3 8 SE17 1-3.8-6.0 34 18 SE17 2 6.4-5.9 45 44 SE17 3 12.5 5.0 23 17 SE17 4+ 25.0 17.7 20 9 SE21 Studio * * 1 5 SE21 1 15.0 4.3 6 6 SE21 2 3.7-5.3 14 16 SE21 3 * * 11 3 SE21 4+ 4.4 63.6 10 6 SE22 Studio * * 3 6 SE22 1-0.4 8.2 32 18 SE22 2 0.4-2.8 53 35 SE22 3 4.4 3.6 22 16 SE22 4+ -5.6 3.4 21 27 SE24 Studio * * 1 0 SE24 1 9.5 8.8 11 7 SE24 2 3.3 6.4 17 21 SE24 3-5.0-12.3 10 14 SE24 4+ 6.3-8.6 11 5 Source: Zoopla.com Note: * indicates data not available 22

Map 5 Two bedrooms lower quartile monthly rents in Southwark, January 2016 Source: Data collected and analysed from Zoopla.com The Valuation Office Agency (VOA) publishes their analysis of achieved rents, reported to them by letting agents and landlords, for each local authority in England. This data has been collected over the twelve months up to September 2015 but excludes lettings where the tenant needs to pay using Housing Benefit. Table 9a compares data for Southwark from our last Market Trends Bulletin (#49) (downloaded and analysed from Zoopla in October 2015) and the September 2015 VOA findings. Table 9b looks at average increases in rents in Southwark, using VOA data. There are several factors to consider when looking at the difference in findings. The first is the timing of the data collected (over twelve months, 23

compared to a snapshot). Another factor is that the VOA rents are achieved rents compared to advertised rents. Table 9a- Comparison of VOA Southwark data and data downloaded from Zoopla VOA Rents (median) (Oct 2014 to Sept 15) ( pm) MTB rents (median), Q2 2015/16, Oct 15 data ( pm) Room 600 737 Studio 1,050 1,192 1 bedroom 1,300 1,647 2 bedrooms 1,600 1,993 3 bedrooms 1,950 2,400 4 bedrooms + 2,450 3,142 Table 9b- VOA Data, Southwark average rent increases (median) (for rents achieved in the 12 months between Sept 2014 and Sept 2015) Rooms Studios 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed + Sep-14 576 867 1,235 1,500 1,817 2,200 Sep-15 600 1,050 1,300 1,600 1,950 2,450 % change 4.2 21.1 5.3 6.7 7.3 11.4 The following tables (Tables 9c and 9d) show the increase in rents in Southwark, by property size, between 2011 and 2016 using advertised data, downloaded and analysed for the MTB. 24

Chart 9c- Average rent increase in Southwark 2011-16, using advertised rents in Southwark (downloaded and analysed for the MTB, bulletin numbers in brackets) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Room Studio 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4 bedrooms + 0 Jan 11 (30) April 11 (31) July 11 (32) Oct 11 (33) Jan 12 (34) April 12 (35) July 12 (36) Oct 12 (37) Jan 13 (38) April 13 (39) July 13 (40) Oct 13 (41) Jan 14 (42) Apr 14 (43) July 14 (44) Oct 14 (45) Jan15 (46) Mar 15 (47) Jul 15 (48) Oct 15 (49) Jan 16 (50) Table 9d- 5 year % increase in advertised rents in Southwark 5 year % increase Jan-11 Jan-16 % increase Room n/a 693 n/a Studio 867 1,200 38.4 1 bedroom 1,213 1,647 35.8 2 bedroom 1,517 1,950 28.5 3 bedroom 1,820 2,427 33.4 4 bedroom+ 2,383 3,000 25.9 4.3 Southwark room rents (Spareroom.co.uk) Single rooms are a very important source of accommodation. This is because often they are the only affordable accommodation for single people, especially young single people. The Local Housing Allowance level (frozen for the year in April 2015) for single rooms in inner south east London is 95.18 per week and for outer south east London it is 84.27 per week. As we can see from the table below there is not much choice for people who need shared accommodation that can be covered solely by housing benefit. The inner SE London area covers Southwark, most of Lewisham and the western half of Greenwich. The outer London area covers Bexley, most of Bromley, the southern parts of Lewisham and the eastern half of Greenwich. 25

Table 10 - Weekly room rents in Southwark, January 2016 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Area Lower Quartile Weekly Rent Upper Median Mean Quartile Count Southwark (excluding 143 168 195 185 823 SE11) SE1 160 184 230 210 231 SE5 133 149 172 164 107 SE11 156 177 218 199 70 SE15 126 143 168 152 106 SE16 157 180 210 205 192 SE17 134 156 189 175 85 SE21 144 150 195 174 19 SE22 138 153 161 152 49 SE24 138 173 184 163 34 Source: Data collected and analysed from spareroom.co.uk and zoopla Table 11 shows that there was a decrease in properties being advertised and therefore included in the analysis in January 2016. This is likely to be a seasonal reoccurrence. The lower quartile, median, upper quartile and mean rents all rose. Table 11- The % change in room rents, number of rooms advertised, between July 2015 and January 2016 in Southwark Lower Quartile Weekly Rent Upper Median Quartile Mean Count Jul-15 138 160 189 170 1417 Jan-16 143 168 195 185 823 % change 3.6 5.0 3.2 8.8-41.9 26

Map 6 Weekly lower quartile room rents in Southwark, January 2016 Source: Data collected and analysed from zoopla and spareroom.co.uk 27