How has Hounslow s demographic profile changed? An analysis of the 2011 Census data based on releases available up to January 2013

Transcription

1 How has Hounslow s demographic profile changed? An analysis of the 2011 Census data based on releases available up to January 2013

2 Background Since 2001 Hounslow s population has grown by 19.6% from 212,341 to 253,957. While this is the 5 th largest growth in Greater London, the borough has only moved from the 19 th to the 18 th largest borough. By comparison to statistical neighbours, Hounslow s remained as 8 th largest, but show s the greatest increase. Was this growth in the population to be expected? Yes and no growth was projected but the extent of the growth was underestimated. The GLA population projections for 2011 was 243,328 (96% of actual); the ONS mid year estimate for 2010 was 236,760 (93% of actual)

3 Local Authority ONS Cluster Population Census 2001 % of Greater London pop Census 2001 Census 2011 Rank of Greater London boroughs Rank of ONS statistical neighbours % of Greater Population London Census 2011 pop Rank of Greater London % Rank of ONS change borough statistical 2001 to s neighbours 2011 Rank of % change Greater London boroughs Rank of % change ONS statistical neighbours Tower Hamlets 196, % , % % 1 Newham 243, % , % % 2 Hackney 202, % , % % 3 Westminster 181, % , % % 4 Hounslow London Suburbs 212, % , % % 5 1 Greenwich London Suburbs 214, % , % % 6 2 Waltham Forest London Suburbs 218, % , % % 7 3 Brent 263, % 7 311, % % 8 Wandsworth 260, % 8 306, % % 9 Haringey 216, % , % % 10 Southwark 244, % , % % 11 Islington 175, % , % % 12 Redbridge London Suburbs 238, % , % % 13 4 Harrow London Suburbs 206, % , % % 14 5 Enfield London Suburbs 273, % , % % 15 6 Lambeth 266, % 6 303, % % 16 Barking and Dagenham 163, % , % % 17 Barnet London Suburbs 314, % , % % 18 7 Hillingdon 243, % , % % 19 Ealing London Suburbs 300, % , % % 20 8 Camden 198, % , % % 21 Lewisham 248, % 9 275, % % 22 Hammersmith and Fulham 165, % , % % 23 Croydon London Suburbs 330, % , % % 24 9 Kingston upon Thames 147, % , % % 25 Richmond upon Thames 172, % , % % 26 Merton London Suburbs 187, % , % % Bexley 218, % , % % 28 Havering 224, % , % % 29 Sutton 179, % , % % 30 Bromley 295, % 4 309, % 6 4.7% 31 City of London 7, % 33 7, % % 32 Kensington and Chelsea 158, % , % % 33 7,172,091 8,173,941

4 1 Bedfont 2 Brentford 3 Chiswick Homefields 4 Chiswick Riverside 5 Cranford 6 Feltham North 7 Feltham West 8 Hanworth 9 Hanworth Park 10 Heston Central 11 Heston East 12 Heston West 13 Hounslow Central 14 Hounslow Heath 15 Hounslow South 16 Hounslow West 17 Isleworth Osterley and Spring 18 Grove 19 Syon 20 Turnham Green (4) (4) (5) (5) (2) Density Census 2011 population per hectare by ward Within Hounslow, the most densely populated wards are at the centre of the borough Hounslow Central (87.4 people per hectare) and Hounslow West (78.1 people per hectare). Density (population per hectare): % change 2001 to (9) (2) (4) (2) (3) The biggest changes in population density between the 2001 and 2011 census in Syon (39.4%), Hounslow Central (40.6%) and Feltham West (34.7%)

5 The higher density and larger % change in these wards is because there are now more dwellings / households; Syon, Feltham West and Hounslow Central all show increases in both. Ward Name All Dwellings 2001 All Dwellings 2011 %Change in Dwellings All Households 2001 All Households 2011 % Change in Households Syon % % Feltham West % % Hounslow Central % % Brentford % % Bedfont % % Hounslow Heath % % Osterley and Spring Grove % % Feltham North % % Hounslow West % % Hanworth % % Turnham Green % % Isleworth % % Hanworth Park % % Chiswick Homefields % % Chiswick Riverside % % Heston East % % Heston West % % Heston Central % % Hounslow South % % Cranford % % % change in dwellings % change in households (12) (2) (2) (3) (1) (10) (3) (3) (2) (2)

6 % of households with an overcrowding rating 1: 2001 % of households with an overcrowding rating 1: (6) (4) (3) (4) (3) (5) (5) (5) (3) (2) % change in the % of households with an overcrowding rating 1: 2001 to 2011 Overcrowding (where a household has an occupancy rating of 1 or less) has risen in Hounslow from 16% in 2001 to 22% in (2) (8) (4) (2) (4) The biggest increases between census s have been in Feltham West (73%), Syon (68%) and Hounslow Central (66%).

7 Between 2001 and 2011 the population has grown, and there has been a similar increase in the number of dwellings. However, there has also be an increase in overcrowding (where a household has an occupancy rating of 1 or less). There are more households in Hounslow, so it is unsurprising that the population will also have grown. What are the underlying demographic changes in Hounslow?

8 Age structure While the total population size has increased, the age profile of the population has not changed greatly between 2001 and In 2011, 52% was under the age of 35; 19.1% under the age of % of the population was aged 75 years and older. 50.1% of the population is male.

9 Which age bands have contributed most to the growth? This figure shows the % change in population size per age band between 2001 and 2011 (blue bars) and the cumulative increase in that change. This shows that a more than 50% increase in the total population size is due to increases in the population aged 0 34 years old. Eight age bands showed increases in population numbers greater than the median increase for the whole population.

10 All population % change 2001 to (9) (2) (4) (2) (3) Biggest growth in Hounslow Central (40.6%), Syon (39.5%) & Feltham West (34.8%). Aged 0 to 4 % change 2001 to 2011 Biggest growth in Hounslow Central (86.6%), Osterley and Spring Grove (79.4%) and Syon (75.4%) (6) (5) (2) (4) (3)

11 Aged 25 to 34: % change 2001 to 2011 Biggest growth in Hounslow Central (71.9%), Syon (61.7%) and Hounslow West (58%) (4) (4) (4) (5) (3) There were decreases of 4 10% in Chiswick Homefields and Chiswick Riverside. Aged 55 to 64: % change 2001 to 2011 Biggest growth in Syon (52.4%), Isleworth (48.3) and Bedfont (44%) (4) (6) (5) (3) (2)

12 % of ward population in 2011 % Change 2001 to 2011 Ward 0 to 4 25 to to 64 All 0 to 4 25 to to 64 Bedfont Brentford Chiswick Homefields Chiswick Riverside Cranford Feltham North Feltham West Hanworth Hanworth Park Heston Central Heston East Heston West Hounslow Central Hounslow Heath Hounslow South Hounslow West Isleworth Osterley and Spring Grove Syon Turnham Green The distribution across Hounslow s wards of the age bands with the biggest increases in size shows a similarity to the distribution of growth in dwellings and households in Hounslow, pointing to the increase in housing stock as one driver of increased population size. The age groups of 0 4 and year olds is suggestive of an increase in young families in the borough, and the broad co location of these increases by ward is supportive of this view.

13 Ethnicity By looking at the ethnicity of the population we can begin to explore who the additional population are. Is the increase due to new residents moving into the borough? Ethnicity Census 2001 % of total population Census 2011 % of total population % change 2001 to 2011 White English/Welsh/Scottish/North % % 32.0% ern Irish/British Irish % % 33.8% Other White % % 86.4% Mixed White and Black Caribbean % % 37.5% White and Black African % % 71.6% White and Asian % % 17.8% Other Mixed % % 36.2% Asian/Asian British Indian % % 9.4% Pakistani % % 25.3% Bangladeshi % % 62.7% Chinese % % 9.2% Other Asian % % 219.7% Black or Black British African % % 57.6% Caribbean % % 0.0% Other Black % % 221.4% Other Ethnic Group Other Ethnic Group % % 66.0% (Combined to suit 2001 mappings) All People % The % of the population that is White British has reduced by 32% from 55.8% in 2001 to 37.9%. The second largest group are Indian, making up 19% of the population (an increase of 9.4% from 2001), followed by the Other White category (11.5%; an increase of 86.4% from 2001).

14 % of ward population that is White British (or individual British nationalities) 2011 % change in ward population that is White British (or individual British nationalities) 2001 to (7) (1) (1) (4) (7) (7) (1) (6) (3) (3) The wards at the east and west of the borough have the highest %of White British in their population. In the central band of the borough the White British group are much more in the minority Hounslow West (13%),Heston East(13.1%,) Heston Central (14.5%), Hounslow Heath (15.7%), Hounslow Central (15.8%) and Cranford (15.8%). Whilst the change in the proportion of the population that is White British is a useful proxy for changes in diversity in Hounslow, it is not indicative of national identity or recent migration. Country of birth and language spoken can provide some insights in this regard.

15 English speakers as % of ward population % of ward population born in UK (5) (2) (1) (7) (5) (3) (4) (1) (4) (8) The pattern across Hounslow s wards of English speakers as a % of the ward population has a similarity to the profile for where White British Hounslow residents live. Combined with the % of ward population born in the UK we begin to get a fuller picture of the distribution of UK nationals in Hounslow. The next two slides show the profile across Hounslow s wards for country of birth from other countries and the distribution of languages across Hounslow.

16 % of ward population born in Other countries (11) (1) (1) (1) (6) % of ward population born in EU pre April 2001 member countries % of ward population born in EU Accession countries (14) (3) (0) (1) (2) (4) (4) (4) (6) (2)

17 After English (71.3%), Panjabi (4.8%) Polish (4.1%) and Urdu (2.1%) are the three most common first languages in Hounslow. Distribution of Panjabi as first language Note the similarities in their distributions to the country of birth data (previous slide). For example the co location of the Panjabi and Urdu languages and the countries of birth being non EU within the central band of the borough. Similarly the parts of Hounslow where the % of Polish as a first language are highest, are also those where the % of ward population born in EU Accession countries is highest (Brentford and Hounslow Central) Distribution of Polish as first language (11) (3) (1) (2) (3) Distribution of Urdu as first language (5) (5) (4) (4) (2) (5) (8) (1) (2) (4)

18 Religion Census 2001 % of total population Census 2011 % of total population % change 2001 to 2011 Christian % % 19% Buddhist % % 105% Hindu % % 37% Jewish % % 20% Muslim % % 54% Sikh % % 4% Other Religion % % 9% No Religion % % 18% Religion Not Stated % % 14% All Usual Residents % Christianity is on the decline in Hounslow, falling 19% between 2001 and The biggest growth is in Buddhism; the % of Buddhists has doubled from 0.7% to 1.4% % ward population who are Christian % change from 2001 to 2011 in ward population in those who are Christian (6) (1) (1) (1) (11) (4) (2) (2) (6) (6)

19 % ward population who are Hindu % ward population who are Muslim (9) (3) (3) (3) (2) (3) (8) (2) (3) (4) % ward population who are Sikh % ward population who have no religion (11) (3) (1) (2) (3) (7) (2) (1) (7) (3)

20 % change: Hindu % change: Muslim (9) (4) (4) (2) (1) (2) (7) (5) (2) (4) Note the increases in numbers of Hindus, Sikh s and Muslims in the west of the borough % change: Sikh % change: No religion (5) (6) (5) (2) (2) (4) (4) (3) (6) (3)

21 Deprivation The census measures deprivation across 4 dimensions: 1. Employment: Any member of the household aged who is not a fulltime student is either unemployed or permanently sick. 2. Education: No member of the household aged 16 to pensionable age has at least 5 GCSEs (grade A C) or equivalent AND no member of the household aged is in full time education. 3. Health and disability: Any member of the household has general health 'not good' in the year before Census or has a limiting long term illness. 4. Housing: The household's accommodation is either overcrowded OR is in a shared dwelling OR does not have sole use of bath/shower and toilet OR has no central heating. This is distinct to the Index of Multiple Deprivation scores.

22 % of total population Census 2011 % of total population % change 2001 to 2011 Census 2001 Household is Not Deprived in Any Dimension % % 11% Household is Deprived in 1 Dimension % % 2% Household is Deprived in 2 Dimensions % % 10% Household is Deprived in 3 Dimensions % % 24% Household is Deprived in 4 Dimensions % % 19% All Households % Fewer households are deprived by this measure in 2011 than in % vs. 33.6%. There has been a slight growth in the % of households deprived in 1 dimension, but a decline in the 2,3,and 4 dimensions. The east of the borough has the greatest proportions of households not deprived in any dimension, and wards in the west have shown the largest improvements. Household is Not Deprived in Any Dimension 2011 % change in Household is Not Deprived in Any Dimension 2001 to (7) (6) (3) (2) (2) (4) (5) (7) (3) (1)

23 Household is Deprived in 1 Dimension 2011 % change in Household is Deprived in 1 Dimension 2001 to (2) (2) (3) (9) (4) Household is Deprived in 3 Dimensions (6) (5) (6) (1) (2) % change in Household is Deprived in 3 Dimension 2001 to (4) (2) (6) (7) (1) (6) (2) (5) (4) (3)

24 Unemployment Males A person aged 16 to 74 is classified as unemployed if they are not in employment, are available to start work in the next two weeks, and either looked for work in the last four weeks or are waiting to start a new job Unemployed males per 1,000 males 16 to 74: 2011 % change in % of males unemployed 2001 to (3) (3) (2) (9) (3) (4) (7) (7) (1) (1) Highest rate of unemployment per 1, to 74 year old males in Heston West (3.3 per 1,000 population), Brentford (3.2 per 1,000 population) and Hounslow Central (3.1 per 1,000 population). The east of the borough stands out as having the lowest rates of unemployment among males ( per 1,000 population). The biggest increase in the % of males unemployed has been in Hounslow South (96% increase).

25 Unemployed females per 1,000 males 16 to 74: 2011 Unemployment Females % change in % of females unemployed 2001 to (3) (4) (6) (4) (3) (2) (4) (3) (7) (4) Highest rate of unemployment per 1, to 74 year old females in Hounslow Heath (3.0 per 1,000 population), Hounslow Central (3.0 per 1,000 population) and Feltham West (2.8 per 1,000 population). The biggest increase in the % of females unemployed has been in Hounslow Central (117% increase), Osterley and Spring Grove (101.6%), Hounslow South (94.3%) and Hanworth (94%). Unemployment seems to have affected females more than males, with bigger increases in % females unemployed.

26 Long term unemployment A person is defined as long term unemployed at the time of the 2011 Census if they were unemployed and the year they last worked was 2009 or earlier. Long term unemployed males per 1,000 males 16 to 74: 2011 % change in % of males unemployed who are long term unemployed: 2001 to (5) (2) (3) (7) (3) Long term unemployed males per 1,000 females 16 to 74: (3) (7) (4) (1) (5) % Change in % of females unemployed who are long term unemployed 2001 to 2011 Given the deprivation profile are these Stay at home Mums? (3) (9) (4) (2) (2) (10) (3) (2) (2) (3)

27 % of ward population aged 16 to 74 that has never worked: (3) (8) (3) (4) (2) Long term unemployment shows a similar profile in 2001 and 2011, except for an increase in the % of the population who has never worked. These may be because they are recent migrants to the country, noting the distribution of in Hounslow with the highest percentages in the central band of the borough. Another possibility are the population that have left school in recent years and remain unemployed see next slide. Without a further age breakdown of the data this remains speculation.

28 % change in the % of ward population aged 16 to 74 that has never worked 2001 to 2011 Rate of no qualifications per 1000 population aged 16 to 74: (1) (9) (5) (2) (3) (4) (1) (5) (5) (5) While not necessarily causal the correlation between an increase in the % of the ward population aged 16 to 74 that has never worked in the west of the borough with higher rates of no qualifications is suggestive. This should be explored further in subsequent census data releases.

29 Summary Hounslow s population has grown between 2001 and An increase in dwellings has probably driven that change. The population is young >50% under the age of 35. Diversity is increasing. Deprivation is improving by this measure. Pockets with significant challenges in unemployment and deprivation.