Housing market trends. SELHP 5 th December 2013 Selina Clark
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1 Housing market trends SELHP 5 th December 2013 Selina Clark
2 Key points > 86% of housing markets below peak 2007 levels (50% more than 10% below) > Low turnover and low mortgage rates a major support to house prices > Talk of housing bubble over-done but purchasers with equity have major buying power > Large group of households priced out of market by no equity and affordability gap > Demand pressures remain on all rented tenures > Private rent rents rising slowly but top end exposed to a recovery in first time buyer sector > Strong demand for intermediate housing products > Key risks in next 5 years external shock, higher interest/mortgage rates 2
3 Profile of house price recovery across UK cities % rise from 2009 trough 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% London (UQ) London (All) Oxford, Cambridge Bristol, Cardiff London (LQ) Birmingham, Manchester Liverpool Edinburgh Glasgow -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% % relative to 2007 peak > The recovery in residential values by UK city varies widely reflecting local economic and demand side factors. > Split between top and bottom end of London markets international equity fuelled demand versus domestic mortgage reliant demand Source: Hometrack (size of bubble relates to average price) 3
4 Extent of house price growth within regional markets Coverage of house price growth in last 4 years 100% <10% 10-20% 20-30% 30-40% >40% > Nationally, 57% housing markets risen by less than 10% in 4 years. 90% 80% 70% > Just 6% markets up by >30%, almost all in London. % markets 60% 50% 40% > 86% markets still below peak levels 30% 20% 10% 0% NI Source: Hometrack N East Wales Y&H N West W Mids E Mids Scot S West East S East London 4
5 Low mortgage rates a major boost to buying power 250, , , ,000 50,000 Actual house price UK Implied house price > Comparison of actual house prices against implied house price. > Implied house price is what could be bought using 35% net income to meet mortgage repayments at prevailing LTV and average mortgage rate over time. > Clear disconnect between actual and implied prices in late 1980s and mid 2000s. Impact of lower interest rates clear over 2008/9. 0 Source: Hometrack > Implied prices sensitive to changes in mortgage rates. 5
6 Different mix of buyers setting prices 41% buy to let and cash buyers 700, > Chart shows volume of sales by type of buyer 600, , % > Cash buyers (including cash investors account for one in three sales nationally. 400, , ,000-57% -31% -18% > First time buyer volumes on the rise while existing owners are less likely to move. 100,000 0 Source: Hometrack BTL First time buyer Home mover Cash > BTL, FTB and % cash buyers are net new demand (i.e. don t add to supply hence upward price pressures). 6
7 National private housing starts rolling 12 months 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Houses Flats > New private housing starts are up by 67% from the 2009 low. > Recovery in starts for houses stronger than flats. Buyers with embedded equity. > Focus on average selling price and margins rather than volumes by developers. > Affordability a constraint on volumes > Market pricing of new build set for low volumes 0 Source: Analysis of NHBC data
8 New build concentration > New build concentration risk or clear opportunity? > Where do starts in last year account for a high % of local housing market turnover? > These markets dependent upon strong demographics, jobs growth, latent demand across local market or in need of more supply/liquidity. 8
9 Help to Buy (MIG) costs up to 30% more than renting Costs per month - 2 bed 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Average rent Upper quartile rent Help to Buy 95% LTV 5% MR > Costs per month of buying and renting a 2 bed > Help to Buy mortgage rates put buying costs up to 30% higher than renting > Help to buy attractive to highest income renters rather than mass market E Mids East London N East N West Scot S East S West Wales W Mids Y&H GB Source: Hometrack 9
10 Rental growth cooling in London on supply/demand Rental growth per annum - 2 bed 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% London S East > London rental market has cooled on rising supply (new build) and changing affordability dynamics. > Buying with a 90% mortgage at a 4% mortgage rate an attractive proposition > Recovering owner occupied market will impact top end of rental market. -25% GB Source: Hometrack 10
11 How many household priced out? > Map shows % households with household income to buy an ave. 2/3 bed home with an 80% mortgage. > Large affordability gap in southern England where more than half of market priced out assuming limited access to housing equity. > What housing products and tenures are most viable? Source: Hometrack 11
12 What tenures/incomes to target across local markets? (All pricing for an average 2 bed property) Source: Hometrack 12
13 Income required to access housing Southwark (2 bed) Source: Hometrack calculations 13
14 Income required to access housing Bexley (2 bed) Source: Hometrack calculations 14
15 Income required to access housing Bromley (2 bed) Source: Hometrack calculations 15
16 Income required to access housing Greenwich (2 bed) Source: Hometrack calculations 16
17 Income required to access housing Lewisham (2 bed) Source: Hometrack calculations 17
18 Summary > Summary > Cost/income to access owner occupation to remain high > Higher mortgage rates greatest risk to headline house prices > Rental market pressure to stay > Demand for intermediate products in the right markets 18
19 Confidential information The information and material contained in and relating to this document, and any related presentation and/or discussion, is confidential ( Protected Material ). You agree to use Protected Material solely for the purpose of internal evaluation of its subject matter ( Purpose ). You agree not to use any Protected Material for any purpose other than the Purpose and not to disclose any Protected Material to any third party other than to an employee or professional adviser who requires the Protected Material in connection with the Purpose and is subject to an obligation of confidentiality no less strict than set out in this notice. The foregoing obligations do not apply where it can be satisfactorily demonstrated that Protected Material has become public knowledge other than through breach of this notice, or was already known to you prior to disclosure by us, or has been received by you from a third party who did not acquire it in confidence from us or from someone owing a duty of confidence to us. You agree to return to us all documents and other records (whether or not provided by us) of the Protected Material promptly upon request. Copyright (c) Hometrack Data Systems Limited. The reproduction or transmission of all or part of this work, whether by photocopying or storing in any medium by electronic means or otherwise, without the written permission of Hometrack Data Systems Limited, is prohibited. Hometrack 6th Floor, The Chambers Chelsea Harbour London SW10 0XF enquiries@hometrack.co.uk 19
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