Assessing Brand Perceptions with Social Media David A. Schweidel (Emory University) Wendy W. Moe (University of Maryland)
Agenda Can we trust social media data? Social media and brand health Assessing the competitive landscape with social media
Why We Question Social Media Data Pre-Purchase Evaluation Purchase Decision and Product Experience Post-Purchase Evaluation Opinion Formation Do I Post? What Do I Post? SELECTION EFFECT Posted Product Ratings ADJUSTMENT EFFECT Opinion Expression
How Online Opinion Forums Evolve Variance Average Activists Post frequently Attracted by lack of consensus More negative Variance and volume make them more negative Low Involvements Post infrequently Deterred by lack of consensus More positive Variance and volume make them more positive Source: WW Moe and DA Schweidel (2012), Online Product Opinions: Incidence, Evaluation and Evolution, Marketing Science
Can We Use Social Media to Track Brand Health? 100% Proportion of Positive Comments 80% 60% 40% 20% Blog Forum Microblog Aggregate Correlation with offline brand tracking survey Venue Correlation 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Observation Month Blogs.197 Forums -.231 Distribution of Comments 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Observation Month Blog Forum Microblog Other Microblogs -394 Average.008 Source: DA Schweidel and WW Moe (2014), Listening in on Social Media: A Joint Model of Sentiment and Venue Format Choice, Journal of Marketing Research
Linking Social Media to Offline Metrics Potential for GBI as a lead indicator GBI 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-0.1-0.2-0.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Month of Overlap Period (t) 9.1 9.05 9 8.95 8.9 8.85 8.8 8.75 Average Survey Response Correlation with survey (t) GBI =.376 Avg sentiment =.008 Blogs =.197 Forums = -.231 Microblogs =.394 GBI in month t-1 Survey in month t Correlation with survey (t-1) GBI =.881 Avg sentiment =.169 Blogs =.529 Forums =.213 Microblogs =.722
Linking Social Media to Offline Metrics Coeff StdErr p-val Constant -69.045 34.044 0.070 S&P* 0.104 0.031 0.008 GBI(t) -16.695 10.324 0.137 S&P Index GBI(t-1) 30.693 10.375 0.014 GBI Lagged GBI Adj R-sq.475 * Closing price in month
Assessing the Competitive Landscape Using Social Media Data Social Media Metrics Volume of mentions of Brand i Comentions of Brands i and j Sentiment of mentions Incorporate a latent space model where brands are plotted on a latent map. Metric Volume of mentions of Brand i Comentions of Brand i and Brand j Sentiment toward Brand i Map Location Brand i s distance from origin Distance between Brand i and Brand j Location on Brand i on dimension t Potential applications Benchmarking metrics against competitors Dynamics over time
Data Top 20 Quick Serve Restaurants (QSR) from The QSR 50 6 months of Twitter mentions from Crimson Hexagon (July to December 2013) Data collected at weekly level Number of mentions of each brand Number of comentions Sentiment associated with (solo) brand mentions (number of positive, neutral or negative comments) Assume that the total number of potential posts in each week is 1.5 million ( number of weekly posts mentioning any of the QSR 50)
Social Media-Inferred Latent Space Taco Bell Subway Panera Chick Fil A KFC Wendy's BK Jack Arby's in the Box Sonic Little DQ CarlsHardees Caesar Dominos Papa John's Dunkin Pizza Hut McD Chipotle SBUX * Based on July-December 2013
Social Media-Inferred Latent Space KFC Wendy's BK Jack in the Box Arby's DQ Sonic Little Caesar CarlsHardees Dominos Papa John's Panera Dunkin Pizza Hut Chick Fil A
Holdout Analysis: Benchmarking Sentiment Brand Actual mentions Actual comentions Predicted Sentiment Actual Sentiment McDonald's 110,049 3,742 0.053 0.060 Subway 49,366 2,049 0.165 0.152 Starbucks 140,616 4,190 0.302 0.235 Wendy's 17,919 890 0.153 0.139 Burger King 12,670 660 0.168 0.008 Taco Bell 78,214 2,958 0.092 0.116 Dunkin Donuts 12,047 616 0.195 0.213 Pizza Hut 12,416 622 0.193 0.173 Chick-fil-A 25,475 1,180 0.892 0.315 KFC 11,711 586 0.168 0.137 Panera Bread 16,554 813 0.204 0.315 Sonic Drive-In 308 15 0.185 0.201 Dominos 7,273 422 0.185 0.144 Carl's Jr./Hardee's 3,942 202 0.180 0.157 Chipotle Mexican Grill 57,010 2,342 0.276 0.254 Jack in the Box 5,365 270 0.176 0.160 Arby's 4,852 251 0.174 0.131 Little Caesars 2,496 127 0.179 0.120 Dairy Queen 4,738 241 0.174 0.162 Papa Johns 5,804 426 0.194 0.152 McDonald s is outperforming benchmark sentiment given volume of mention and co-mention activity. Burger King reported a problem with a meat supplier. Company president made headlines with comments regarding gay marriage. Panera launches new community cafes.
Financial Analysis ln R bt CONSTANT b b D 1 b b where R is revenue, D is the differentiation metric 2 D 2 bt Term Estimate Std Error p-value Term Estimate Std Error p-value D t 19.09 6.964 0.011 D t 2.797 1.054 0.010 D t 2-61.381 27.826 0.036 D t 2-4.776 2.254 0.037 BIANNUAL Adj R 2 0.994 QUARTERLY Adj R 2 0.988
Conclusions Individuals social media contributions are subject to known biases Accounting for factors that contribute to these biases, social media can serve as a proxy for brand health Looking at the competitive landscape via social media suggests that brands that are differentiated on social media have stronger financial performance