The XXVII International Conference of Agricultural Economists 16 22 August 2009 Beijing International Convention Center, Beijing, China Mini-symposium Food Securisation in sub Saharan Africa - ways and means with a special focus on West Africa West African food security strategies: Rice policies at the crossroads. Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement. Frédéric Lançon Collective Action, Markets and Public Policies Research Unit
Rice: a key commodity for food securisation in West Africa The food crisis led to the revitalization of public funded programs for rice production increase. Rice represents 25% of total food import value (2000-2006 average). Policy options: imports substitutions versus rice trade liberalization.
Justification and hypothesis The case for rice policy analysis in West Africa: Two decades of alternative public and market led policy provide a relevant basis to compare their relative efficiency in improving food security. Diverse policy and rice sector configurations encountered in the sub-region. Hypothesis: both public and market led policies outcomes have been mitigated because they have neglected the importance of marketing operations for achieving a sustainable food security.
Imports share of rice market and policies sequence Import share of total rice availability 60% Pre 70 s food crisis Food crisis Public investment in rice prod. 50% 40% Liberalization West Africa West Africa Without Nigeria 30% 20% 10% 0% 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Sources: computation based on USDA- FAS data
A diet transition rather than a food crisis Kg/per year/per capita 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 West Africa without Nigeria Production Consumption Nigeria Production Consumption Sources: computation based on USDA-FAS data and FAO data
A diet transition accelerated by low rice price on the world market 000' Tons 4 000 USD/Ton 700 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 600 500 400 300 200 Rice Import WA w/o Nigeria Thai Rice 5% FOB price 500 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 100 0 Sources: USDA-FAS data IRRI rice database
An heterogeneous and contrasted situation across the sub region Per capita annual consumption (kg) 100 90 Guinea Average for 2000-2007 80 70 60 50 Mali Côte d'ivoire Senegal 40 30 20 10 0 Nigeria Ghana Togo Burkina Faso Niger Benin Cameroon 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Import share in total rice availability (%) Sources: computation based on USDA- FAS data
Discrepancies between trade policy options and domesctic rice production trends Kg per capita per year 80 70 Full trade liberalization Cote d'ivoire 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Years Senegal Mali On- going market protection Guinea Nigeria Ghana Sources: computation based on USDA-FAS data and FAO data
Percentage of responses 100% 90% 80% Do only prices matter? Consumers decisions making West African Consumers justifications for purchasing imported rice Other organoleptic properties Nutritious properties 70% Taste 60% Cooking easiness 50% 40% 30% Swelling capacity Cleanliness and appearance 20% Availability 10% 0% COTE D IVOIRE Import rice price < local rice price NIGERIA Import rice price > local rice price Price Sources: WARDA- Africa Rice Centre, 2001 and 2003
A rice domestic rice economy at the margin of major consumers centre Northern Ghana rice market spatial configuration based on estimated local and imported rice flows World market Sources: IRAM, 2007
Enhancing food security through domestic rice marketing system building Public and market led policy show contrasted outcomes in terms of domestic rice production growth. The competitiveness of the domestic rice production is not solely determined by price and also relies on the marketability of the local rice. A sustainable strategy for increasing domestic rice production should also take into account West African success stories in local rice marketability enhancement.
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A rice deficit growth linked to changes in rice consumption level Consumption growth 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% Ghana 2.0% 1.5% Burkina Faso Togo Niger Nigeria Mali 1.0% Senegal Guinea 0.5% Côte d'ivoire 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Rice deficit growth