US Economic History: Great Depression

US Economic History: Great Depression February 19, 214 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Industrial Production: 1929-1941 1 CPI & PPI: 192-1947 2 Producer Price Index: 1929-1941 3 Dow Jones: 1929-1941 4 Interest Rates: 192-1941 Income Tax Returns: 192-1942 6 Bank Deposits & Assets: 192-1942 7 CPI & PPI: 192-1947 8 February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

Industrial Production: 1929-1941 13 Figure 1. 13 11 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 1929-1941 (27=1) 11 9 9 7 7 3 1929 193 1931 1932 1933 1934 193 1936 1937 1938 1939 194 1941 3 * T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 193. B = Emergency Banking Act. M = Mark-to-market suspended. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. 8 Figure 2. 8 6 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 1929-1941 (yearly percent change) 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2-4 1929 193 1931 1932 1933 1934 193 1936 1937 1938 1939 194 1941-4 * T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 193. B = Emergency Banking Act. M = Mark-to-market suspended. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Page 1 / February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

7 Figure 3. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 192-1947 CPI & PPI: 192-1947 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 43 44 4 46 47 3 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 17 Figure 4. 16 PRODUCER PRICES: 1929-1941 (1982=1) Industrial Commodities Grains 4 1 14 3 13 2 12 11 1929 193 1931 1932 1933 1934 193 1936 1937 1938 1939 194 1941 T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 193. B = Emergency Banking Act. M = Mark-to-market suspended. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Page 2 / February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

16. 16. Figure. Producer Price Index: 1929-1941 16. 16. 1. 1. PRODUCER PRICES: INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES 1929-1941 (1982=1) 1. 1. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 1. 1929 193 1931 1932 1933 1934 193 1936 1937 1938 1939 194 1941 11. 1. * T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 193. B = Emergency Banking Act. M = Mark-to-market suspended. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 48 46 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Figure 6. PRODUCER PRICES: GRAINS (1982=1) 1929 193 1931 1932 1933 1934 193 1936 1937 1938 1939 194 1941 48 46 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 * T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 193. B = Emergency Banking Act. M = Mark-to-market suspended. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 3 / February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

4 Figure 7. Dow Jones: 1929-1941 4 3 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE 1929-1941 3 2 2 1 1 1929 193 1931 1932 1933 1934 193 1936 1937 1938 1939 194 1941 * T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 193. B = Emergency Banking Act. M = Mark-to-market suspended. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. 12 11 1 Figure 8. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1929-1941 (27=1) 44 4 36 9 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 1929-1941 32 8 28 24 7 2 6 16 12 4 8 3 1929 193 1931 1932 1933 1934 193 1936 1937 1938 1939 194 1941 4 * T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 193. B = Emergency Banking Act. M = Mark-to-market suspended. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Page 4 / February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

6. 6... 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1... -. Figure 9. THREE-MONTH T-BILL RATE: 192-1941 (percent) 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Interest Rates: 192-1941 6. 6... 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1... -. Page / February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

6 Figure 1. CORPORATION INCOME TAX RETURNS (millions) Income Tax Returns: 192-1942 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 All Returns Returns with Net Income 2 1 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 2 2 CORPORATION INCOME TAX RETURNS (billion dollars) 2 2 1 1 1 1 Total Receipts Total Receipts: Returns with Net Income 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 9 7 RETURNS WITH NET INCOME (billion dollars) 9 7 Total Income 3 3 1 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 Source: Government Employment and Financies, Series Y 381-392 and Government, Series Y 42-411, Individual Income Tax Returns. 1 Page 6 / February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

6 Figure 11. COMMERCIAL BANK DEPOSITS (billion dollars) Bank Deposits & Assets: 192-1942 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 2 3 3 NUMBER OF BANKS (millions) 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 1 1 9 TOTAL COMMERCIAL BANK ASSETS (LIABILITIES) (billion dollars) 1 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 Source: Financial Markets & Institutions, Series X 41-419 and Banking, Series Y 8-87. 4 Page 7 / February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

2 1 Figure 12. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 192-1947 (yearly percent change) CPI & PPI: 192-1947 2 1 1 1 - - -1-1 -1 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 43 44 4 46 47-1 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 3 2 Figure 13. CONSUMER PRICE & PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES: 192-1947 (yearly percent change) 3 2 2 1 1 PPI: Industrial Commodities (1982=1) CPI (1967=1) 2 1 1 - - -1-1 -1-1 -2-2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 32 33 34 3 36 37 38 39 4 41 42 43 44 4 46 47 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -2-2 Page 8 / February 19, 214 / US Economic History: Great Depression www.

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