Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

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Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) November 12-13, 2014 Wallops Island, VA Marco Propato

SLAMM Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model Simulates the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions under different scenarios of sea level rise Uses a complex decision tree incorporating geometric and qualitative relationships to represent transfers among coastal classes Provides maps and projections of how coastal habitats will change in response to sea-level rise 2009 2100, 1 m SLR Open Ocean Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Inland Fresh Marsh Developed Dry Land Irregularly Flooded Marsh Estuarine Open Swamp Regularly Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Tidal Fresh Marsh Inland Shore Estuarine Beach Riverine Tidal Ocean Beach Transitional Salt Marsh Cypress Swamp Open Ocean Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Inland Fresh Marsh Developed Dry Land Irregularly Flooded Marsh Inland Open Water Swamp Regularly Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Tidal Fresh Marsh Inland Shore Estuarine Beach Riverine Tidal Ocean Beach Transitional Salt Marsh Cypress Swamp

Model Strengths Relatively simple model Open source Minimal data requirements Ease and cost of application Quick to run Contains the major processes pertinent to wetland fate Provides information needed by policymakers

Elevation SLAMM Inundation Model Equilibrium Approach Wet to Dry Land Boundary Mean High Water Mean Tide Level Mean Low Water Water Saltmarsh Scrub-Shrub or Brackish Inland Fresh and Dry Land

Elevation Wet to Dry Land Boundary SLAMM Inundation Model Equilibrium Approach Mean Hig Water Mean Tide Level Mean Low Water Water Saltmarsh Scrub- Inland Fresh Shrub or and Dry Land Brackish

Model Process Overview Addresses Six Primary Processes: Inundation Erosion Accretion Saturation Overwash Salinity Titus and Wang 2008

Hydro-Connectivity Assesses whether land barriers or roads prevent saline inundation Culverts, ditches, dikes, leeves considered Can be used for levee overtop model with finescale elevation model 7

Model Limitations Does not model actual water flows Modeled processes are relatively simple Anthropogenic changes not included Beach nourishment, shoreline armoring, construction of levees, tide gates Large Storm Effects undercounted

Data Sources Elevation Data Wetland Layers Tide Ranges & Frequency of Flooding Dikes and Impoundments NWI, USACE NLD, manual additions Percent Impervious Accretion Rates Erosion Rates Uncertainty and Variability

Model Calibration Salt Panne near Mastic, NY Initial Condition Time Zero

Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal SLAMM output maps show current or predicted land-cover conditions at low tide (MLLW) Barn Island Time Zero, 2010 Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal InlanInland Shore FlooFlooded Developed Dry Land

Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal SLAMM output maps show current or predicted land-cover conditions at low tide (MLLW) Barn Island GCM Max, 2100 Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal InlanInland Shore FlooFlooded Developed Dry Land

Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal SLAMM output maps show current or predicted land-cover conditions at low tide (MLLW) Barn Island 1m, 2100 Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal InlanInland Shore FlooFlooded Developed Dry Land

Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal SLAMM output maps show current or predicted land-cover conditions at low tide (MLLW) Barn Island RIM Min, 2100 Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal InlanInland Shore FlooFlooded Developed Dry Land

Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal SLAMM output maps show current or predicted land-cover conditions at low tide (MLLW) Barn Island RIM Max, 2100 Estuarine Open Water Undeveloped Dry Land Developed Dry Land Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Tidal Swamp Swamp Inland Open Water Trans. Salt Marsh Estuarine Beach Inland-Fresh Marsh Tidal-Fresh Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Riverine Tidal Rocky Intertidal InlanInland Shore FlooFlooded Developed Dry Land

Example - Barn Island, CT Land cover category Acres in 2010 Percentage Land cover change from 2010 to 2100 for different SLR scenarios GCM Max 1m RIM Min RIM Max Estuarine Open Water 1,969 1.3 1.8 17.6 29.3 Undeveloped Dry Land 1,856-7.0-10.9-15.3-18.7 Irreg.-Flooded Marsh 457-77.6-94.0-97.4-98.8 Developed Dry Land 337-4.6-8.0-14.0-18.9 Swamp 153-11.5-17.4-30.4-40.7 Trans. Salt Marsh 87 49.0 41.9 45.5 8.7 Tidal Swamp 65-32.5-62.4-76.6-83.5 Regularly-Flooded Marsh 19 2363.1 2951.2 1287.7 1111.0 Estuarine Beach 17-34.1-42.9-55.9-67.7 Inland-Fresh Marsh 6-12.4-22.2-22.3-22.4 Tidal-Fresh Marsh 6 0.0 0.0-0.1-18.0 Inland Open Water 4-14.6-16.1-19.6-20.4 Flooded Developed Dry Land 3 438.3 774.1 1344.4 1817.0

Planning, management and adaptation strategies Identify appropriate strategies regarding land acquisition, restoration, reduced infrastructure development, etc. Identify priorities and effectiveness in allocating available resources - e.g. protection and maintenance vs. migration pathways Risk identification

Coastal Resilience Mapping Portal

Coastal Resilience Mapping Portal

GIS Analyses 1m SLR by 2100 Locations of new marshes Previous land cover type shown Potential marsh migration pathways

Adaptation strategies priorities Should we try to protect and maintain this marsh system?

2100 Percent Likelihood of Coastal Marsh

2100 Percent Likelihood: Land to Open Water

Thanks and Questions High Marsh Habitat in Clinton CT looking east from Town Beach (J. Clough)

Uncertainty Setup Parametric Model Input Distributions Model Output Distributions Uncertainty Cloud for Selected Region Examining SLAMM results as distributions can improve the decision making process Results account for parametric uncertainties Range of possible outcomes and their likelihood Robustness of deterministic results may be evaluated

Example Uncertainty Outputs Histograms Time series with confidence intervals Tables of Results Landcover Type Min 5th Percentile (Low) Mean 95th Percentile (High) Max Std. Dev. Developed Dry Land 109,753 113,237 119,835 123,439 123,701 2,902 Estuarine Open Water 75,347 75,619 76,933 78,591 79,534 784 Undeveloped Dry Land 51,628 53,031 56,617 59,072 59,396 1,653 Open Ocean 32,746 32,790 32,887 32,975 33,007 46 Regularly-Flooded Marsh 1,823 1,949 3,795 5,154 5,312 1,020 815 853 1,200 2,030 2,231 312 Inland Open Water 623 659 742 1,015 1,021 92 Trans. Salt Marsh 613 789 1,446 2,288 2,597 385 Ocean Beach 523 550 790 1,042 1,147 144 Swamp 386 401 486 541 544 38 Flooded Developed Dry Land 273 535 4,139 10,736 14,220 2,902 Irreg.-Flooded Marsh 237 290 1,065 1,982 2,011 551 Inland-Fresh Marsh 177 192 332 413 420 66 Estuarine Beach 138 157 222 308 352 41 Uncertainty Maps

Site or Subsite Parameters Parameters not specific to cell but specific to entire site or subsite DEM Date (yyyy) NWI Photo Date (yyyy) Direction OffShore (N S E W) Historic Trend (mm/yr) Historic Eustatic Trend (mm/yr) NAVD88 Correction (MTL-NAVD88 in meters) Great Diurnal Tide Range (meters) Salt Elevation (meters) Marsh erosion (horz. meters/year) Swamp erosion (horz. meters/year) Tflat. erosion (horz. meters/year) Reg. flooded marsh vertical accretion (mm/yr) Irreg. flooded marsh vert. accretion (mm/yr) Tidal fresh marsh vertical accretion (mm/yr) Inland fresh marsh vertical accretion (mm/yr) Mangrove vertical accretion (mm/yr) Tidal swamp vertical accretion (mm/yr) Swamp vertical accretion (mm/yr) Beach/T.Flat Sedimentation Rate (mm/yr) Frequency of Overwash (yr/washover) Use Elevation Preprocessor for Wetlands (Boolean) 27

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