COASTAL RISK RAPID ASSESSMENT AND FIRST SCORE. MIAMI BEACH CITY HALL 1700 Convention Center Dr., Miami Beach, FL, 33139

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1 COASTAL RISK RAPID ASSESSMENT AND FIRST SCORE MIAMI BEACH CITY HALL 1700 Convention Center Dr., Miami Beach, FL, *THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED SUBJECT TO THE COASTAL RISK CONSULTING, LLC, PRINTED DISCLAIMERS AND TERMS WHICH ARE ATTACHED TO THIS STUDY AND WHICH ARE POSTED AT THIS ANALYSIS IS FURNISHED AS IS FOR THE PERSONAL USE OF THE CONSUMER AS OF THE DATE PROVIDED, IS APPLICABLE ONLY FOR THE ADDRESS OR ADDRESSES PROVIDED BY THE CONSUMER AND IS NOT TRANSFERABLE OR ASSIGNABLE TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY.

2 DATE: 11/30/ Sea-Rise ( ) Dear : Thank you for requesting the FIRST Score or Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment from Coastal Risk Consulting, LLC. This is the World's first automated, online flood risk model for property at the parcel level. This report is furnished pursuant to Coastal Risk Consulting, LLC s Disclaimers, Terms of Use, and Privacy Policy, which are attached. Coastal Risk s flood risk forecasts are based upon sound science and publicly-available, governmental databases. The purpose of the FIRST Score and the Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment is to empower you to make more informed decisions regarding coastal real property. These services are valuable for such uses as: Real Property Due Diligence Corporate Vulnerability Studies Government Climate Adaptation Mortgage Underwriting Risk Analysis If your FIRST Score indicates that your property will experience 30 or more days of non-storm related flooding per year, then you should consider taking steps, now, to increase climate readiness and storm safety at that location. Cost-effective adaptation and resiliency measures may be available to help mitigate future tidal and storm surge flooding. Coastal Risk Consulting, LLC can also help you determine what steps to take to get climate ready and storm safe. If you have any questions about your FIRST Score or Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment please contact CRC at 844-Sea-Rise ( ) or by , customerservice@coastalriskconsulting.com. Sincerely, Albert J. Slap Albert J. Slap, President Sea-Rise ( ) albertslap@coastalriskconsulting.com 7951 Southwest 6th Street, Suite 112, Plantation, FL Coastal Risk Consulting LLC

3 1700 Convention Center Dr., Miami Beach, FL 33139

4 INITIAL RISK CATEGORIES THIS PROPERTY IS WITHIN THE FOLLOWING GOVERNMENT-DESIGNATED RISK ZONES: Flood zone: AE Zone A is subject to flooding due to nearby bodies of water (lakes, rivers, canals...etc.). Properties in this zone have a 1% chance of annual flooding, but have a 26% chance of flooding during a 30-year mortgage. It is required by FEMA for any property in the Zone A to have flood insurance. Zone AE is a subset of Zone A in which the base flood elevations of the property are known. For example if the property s base flood elevation (calculated by FEMA) is 2 ft, then any structure built on the property must be above 2 ft if located in any A Zone. Rates in high-risk areas (A and V Zones) are calculated based on a variety of factors, including elevation and building construction. Policies can be purchased for contents only, building only, or both contents and building coverage. Talk to a licensed insurance agent to determine the premium for your specific property. For more information on flood insurance policies see: Wind zone: III & Hurricane-Susceptible Region The United States is divided into four Wind Zones created by FEMA. These are put in place for the construction of infrastructure throughout the country. Buildings in their respective wind zones must be able to withstand the max wind speed as indicated by FEMA. Zone III properties have to be able to withstand up to 200 mph winds For more information on wind zones and protecting your home from high winds visit: Evacuation Zone: B For reference visit: Community Rating Score: Class 6 The National Flood Insurance Program s (NFIP) Community Rating System (CRS) was created for communities that go above and beyond minimum NFIP requirements. This is based on four criteria: public information on flooding, mapping and regulations, flood damage reduction and flood preparedness. A class 6 CRS provides the community with a 20% reduction in flood insurance premium rates. Community Rating System for all of the US: Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA): YES, the property is in a SFHA What is a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA)? Land areas that are at high risk for flooding are called Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), or floodplains. These areas are indicated on Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs). In high-risk areas, there is at least a 1 in 4 chance of flooding during a 30-year mortgage. Coastal Construction Control Line (CCCL): This property is landward of the CCCL 2

5 The FIRST Score is the TOTAL number of tidal flood days over a 30-year period as projected by modeling based on the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) high projection 1 ( and other local factors. This property has a maximum total of 531 tidal flood days over 30 years. The incremental colored ranges indicate the number of flood days for each 5-year period. For example, from 2036 to 2040, there will be up to 120 total days of tidal flooding. Miami Beach City Hall 1700 Convention Center Dr., Miami Beach, FL Flood Inundation Risk Score and Table (FIRST SCORE ) Date Range # Total Tidal Flood Days Risk Meter CUMULATIVE FIRST SCORE = 531 The FIRST Score is matched to the property boundary elevations and not the surrounding streets or neighborhood. Just because the property or house has a good FIRST Score does not mean that there isn't or won't be flooding in the streets or neighborhood. The risk meter begins at a light green color meaning limited tidal flooding initially. But with the compounding effects of sea level rise, the risk increases over time from yellow to orange and eventually a red category indicating high flood risk. 1 The USACE high projection for sea level rise is lower than high projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US Third National Climate Assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and other projections in the peer reviewed literature. See references on p 11 for local sea level rise rates out to The future rates of sea level rise may be higher than the USACE model predicts, and, therefore, the number of days of tidal flooding could be greater. CRC reserves the right to make adjustments to the flood likelihood estimates from time to time as it deems scientifically appropriate. 3

6 # Days Tidal Flooding per year The following table explains the risk meter color progression in more detail: TOTAL flood days over 5 years 151 and up Recommendation Major adaptation* adjustments are recommended Take adaptation* actions Plan preventative measures to minimize flooding impact 0-15 little or no adaptation* *Adaptation Planning and preparation for future time horizons to prevent or reduce the impacts of flooding due to higher sea levels. Adaptation actions may include: Accommodation - Strategies which prevent flood damage through measures such as vertical elevation (raising) of structures or stormwater system improvements. Protection - Strategies including hard and soft structurally defensive measures such as beach nourishment, planting mangroves, and building seawalls. Each year, the number of days with nuisance flooding increases, as shown in the graph below Miami Beach City Hall *Non-storm flooding* The FIRST Score is also correlated with the Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment (CRRA), which is shown as a series of maps on the next four pages. These maps display non-storm tidal flooding extent and maximum water depth for the years 2015, 2025, 2035, and These maps also display the storm flooding extent and water depth of a Category 3 hurricane. Each year the surge heights are enhanced with sea level rise, as projected by the USACE. 4

7 In 2015, the property has very minimal risk of tidal flooding. The map on the right is a close-up look at the area surrounding the property. The upper left map is zoomed out to show the property s proximity to the ocean. The black outline shown on this map depicts the extent of the close-up map. This map shows the land vulnerable to flooding and wave energy from a category 3 hurricane in The different colors portray the depth of flooding in terms of water above land, as shown in the legend. Yellow indicates up to 1ft of water, orange up to 2ft, and red up to 3ft. 5

8 The low-lying land, shown in red, is at risk of up to 3 days of tidal flooding in The map on the right is a close-up look at the area surrounding the property. The upper left map is zoomed out to show the property s proximity to the ocean. The black outline shown on this map depicts the extent of the close-up map as a reference. This map shows the land vulnerable to flooding and wave energy from a category 3 hurricane in The different colors portray the depth of flooding in terms of water above land, as shown in the legend. Yellow indicates up to 1ft of water, orange up to 2ft, and red up to 3ft. 6

9 The low-lying land, shown in red, is at risk of up to 9 days of tidal flooding in The map on the right is a close-up look at the area surrounding the property. The upper left map is zoomed out to show the property s proximity to the ocean. The black outline shown on this map depicts the extent of the close-up map as a reference. This map shows the land vulnerable to flooding and wave energy from a category 3 hurricane in The different colors portray the depth of flooding in terms of water above land, as shown in the legend. Yellow indicates up to 1ft of water, orange up to 2ft, and red up to 3ft. 7

10 The low-lying land, shown in red, is at risk of up to 88 days of tidal flooding in The map on the right is a close-up look at the area surrounding the property. The upper left map is zoomed out to show the property s proximity to the ocean. The black outline shown on this map depicts the extent of the close-up map as a reference. This map shows the land vulnerable to flooding and wave energy from a category 3 hurricane in The different colors portray the depth of flooding in terms of water above land, as shown in the legend. Yellow indicates up to 1ft of water, orange up to 2ft, red up to 3ft, and pink up to 5ft. 8

11 Conclusions This property is in FOUR government-designated coastal, high-risk zones. However, these are not indicative of resilience measures that may be taken. The FIRST Score for this property is 531. The light green labels indicate a LOW score, and therefore limited tidal flooding initially. By 2045, the CRRA MODEL projections show that the area around this property will experience up to 88 tidal flood days per year and the risk increases to a red category. The indicated nuisance flooding will begin in the street on the western edge of the property and will put a strain on drainage and lead to soils being saturated with water. As sea level rise increases over time, flood events move towards the building, eventually engulfing half of the parcel by The property is at high risk of storm surge flooding also beginning on the western side. Initial storm flooding from a category 3 hurricane starts out shallow but deepens through time as the surge is exacerbated by sea level rise. The average elevation of the property is 3.4 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88, The range in land elevation within the property boundary goes from 2.1 to feet NAVD88. These elevations are illustrated in the map on page 10. The FIRST score can change based on preventative measures. Preventative measures may increase climate readiness and storm safety for this property, especially as flooding days continue to increase. For further information, please contact CRC at 844-Sea-Rise ( ) or by , customerservice@coastalriskconsulting.com. 9

12 Miami Beach City Hall 1700 Convention Center Dr., Miami Beach, FL 10

13 REFERENCES The figure below illustrates a range of future local projections for sea-level rise (SLR), going to 2100 based on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) estimates. These local rates apply the nearest tide gauge to the property which is considered for USACE relative SLR projections, located at Miami Beach, FL. The table on the right reflects the correlating SLR ranges in inches, from intermediate to high out to ( Year Sea-level rise in in in in in in in 11

14 The illustration below indicates the range of extreme water level return periods relative to NAVD88. A return period is the estimate of likelihood of a water level recurring at an average interval, ranging from yearly to every 100 years. As these values are based on historic water levels, sea-level rise heightens the foundation upon which these water levels build. For more information, see According to 67 years of record, the table below estimates return periods for various timescales. For example, there is a 2.37 ft water level, above Mean Sea Level (MSL), associated with a five-year return period. RETURN PERIOD EXTREME TIDE (RELATIVE TO MSL) 1 YEAR 1.32 FT 2 YEARS 1.93 FT 5 YEARS 2.37 FT 10 YEARS 2.70 FT 20 YEARS 3.06 FT 50 YEARS 3.58 FT 100 YEARS 4.01 FT 12

15 Category Surge Maps Saffir-Simpson Scale with Estimated Storm Surge Values Wind Speed (mph) Estimated Storm Surge (Ft)* >155 >18 *Storm surge is estimated because it can vary greatly based on several environmental factors. Storm surge is created during tropical cyclones due to high winds forcing the water towards the shore. Storm surge is affected by the actual storm strength (the category of the storm), how fast the storm is moving, the size of the storm (this determines how far the winds extend), how the storm is angled in respect to the coast, and the shape and characteristics of the coastline. A Category 3 storm surge at mean tide for this property is modeled at 4.9 feet. 13

16 DEFINITIONS Nuisance flooding - minor threshold elevation defined by flooding from 1 to 2 Ft that leads to an inconvenience for individuals and it is exacerbated by sea level rise, sinking of land (subsidence) and coastal erosion. This flooding closes down roads, degrades infrastructure and backs up storm drains. Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) - The land area covered by the floodwaters of the base flood is the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) on NFIP maps. The SFHA is the area where the National Flood Insurance Program's (NFIP's) floodplain management regulations must be enforced and the area where the mandatory purchase of flood insurance applies. Evacuation Zone - Hurricane evacuation zones are areas of the city that may be inundated by storm surge or isolated by storm surge waters. Wind Zones - FEMA Wind Zones are defined by zone: Zone Wind Speed Infrastructure Must Be Able to Handle Zone I Up to 130 mph Zone II Up to 160 mph Zone III Up to 200 mph Zone IV Up to 250 mph Also included are Special Wind Regions and Hurricane Susceptible Regions Storm Surge Zones - Hurricane storm surge zones are determined by the National Hurricane Center using ground elevation and the area s vulnerability to storm surge from a hurricane. The evacuation zones are based on these FEMA Community Rating System (CRS) - awards points for steps taken by municipalities to manage the floodplain to reduce the community s risk. Flood insurance rates are discounted within participating municipalities that have accumulated points for steps taken, thereby saving on homeowner s flood insurance, as well as insurance on municipal infrastructure. It is a method to incentivize cities that have gone beyond the minimum floodplain management requirements to develop extra measures to provide protection from flooding, but it is not applied at the parcel level. PREMIUM REDUCTION CLASS SFHA 1 45% 2 40% 3 35% 4 30% 5 25% 6 20% 7 15% 8 10% 9 5%

17 DISCLAIMERS AND TERMS OF USE These Disclaimers and Terms of Use are applicable to Coastal Risk Consulting s online services, namely the Flood Inundation Risk Score and Table (hereinafter, FIRST Score ) and the Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment (referred to herein as SERVICES ). These services comprise flood risk predictions, which assess potential risks to individual properties at the parcel level from tidal and storm surge flooding events and progressive sea level rise. These services allow users to assess the current and future flood risk status of specific properties at a screening or planning level. The FIRST Score provides an analysis, at the specific property level, of tidal flood inundation risks plus sea level rise and other factors (stated in the number of flood days predicted over a period of thirty-years or one mortgage cycle). It is provided as a risk forecast only, based upon peer-reviewed data and publicly-available, geospatial information available at the time of delivery to the end user. The Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment (with the SLOSH model) provides predictions of both tidal and storm flood inundation levels plus sea level rise for specific properties, also for a period of thirty-years. The color coding in the FIRST Score is provided merely as a guideline for users due diligence consideration (prior to any adaptation measures being taken) that is, how a particular property may be viewed by the User in conjunction with other due diligence factors (e.g., termites, radon, asbestos, mold, etc.). The Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment and FIRST Score are modeled using high-resolution elevation data (LIDAR) at the ground level. These models do not consider any of the following factors: Elevation of the base floor of any structures on the property, such as pilings; The presence of a basement; Foundation or elevation changes made after the most recent LIDAR measurement. For consideration of these or other specially-requested factors in your Report, you may purchase a custom Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment at additional cost. Also, if you wish to obtain different terms of use and disclaimers than those set forth below, you will need to contact customerservice@coastalriskconsulting.com and enter into a written, professional services contract with Coastal Risk Consulting, LLC, also at additional cost. Clients and Customers of Coastal Risk Consulting, LLC who order and receive the Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment and FIRST Score services online, over the phone, or by mail using PayPal, Credit Card/Debit Card or Check (i.e., no written contract with Coastal Risk Consulting, LLC) are defined as the User, End User and are referred to herein as You, and Your along with Clients and Customers. Both the FIRST Score and the Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment services are provided subject to the following terms of use and disclaimers. By Using CRC s Services and Products, Clients and Customers of CRC ( End Users ) acknowledge that they have read these terms of use and agree to be bound by all terms of use, disclaimers and Privacy Policies. THE SERVICES PROVIDED FOR PURCHASE ON THIS SITE ARE FOR PERSONAL OR INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS OR GOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY AND MAY NOT BE RE-SOLD, WITHOUT THE EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION OF COASTAL RISK CONSULTING, LLC. Coastal Risk Consulting, LLC ( CRC ) is not a law firm, realtor, engineering, architecture firm, lender, mortgage broker, underwriter, loan processor or loan originator and is not offering legal, real estate, investment, lending, engineering, construction or architectural services of any kind in any state, province, territory or country. CRC is not a substitute for an attorney or a law firm, realtor, a licensed engineer, architect, bank, mortgage lender, contractor, insurer, or any other type of entity described herein. CRC assumes and takes no responsibility for any 15

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