Proposal on Disaster-Related Indicators to Sustainable Development Goals Joint proposal of UNISDR, FAO, GFDRR, IOM, UNCCD, UNDP, UNESCAP, UNESCO, UNFPA, UNHCR, UNOCHA, UNOOSA, UNOPS, UNU, UNWOMEN, WHO and WMO. Consultation period 1 st consultation: 29 May 2015 12 June 2015 2 nd consultation: 26 June 2015 5 July 2015 8 July 2015 1
Proposed indicator 1: Number of deaths, missing, injured, relocated or evacuated people due to disasters (hazard events) per 100,000 To limit the number of indicators to maximum two for each target suggested by UNDESA, we merged two elements of target 11.5 -number of deaths and number of people affected- into one. While we understand the need to limit the total number of global indicators, we strongly recommend that three elements in target 11.5 (mortality, affected and economic loss) should be monitored by three indicators. We agree with US delegate in the 1 st IAEG that composite indicators are often difficult to interpret/analyze and are not transparent. Therefore, we re-propose to break this indicator into the following two indicators: Proposed indicator 1-1: Number of deaths and missing due to disasters per 100,000 Proposed indicator 1.2: Number of injured, relocated and evacuated people due to disasters per 100,000 If the number of indicators should be limited to certain number for each target, we suggest that the following priority be given to 1: deaths (including missing), 2: direct economic loss, and 3: injured, relocated and evacuated. Goal and Target addressed: Strongly related 11.5 By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and decrease by [x] per cent the economic losses relative to gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries 1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters Related 14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans 15.3 By 2020, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a landdegradation-neutral world 3.d Strengthen the capacity of all countries, in particular developing countries, for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks. Definition and method of computation: Number of deaths: The number of people who died during the disaster (hazard event), or directly after, as a direct result of the disaster (hazard event). Missing: The number of people whose whereabouts is unknown since the hazardous event. It 2
includes people who are presumed dead although there is no physical evidence. The data on number of deaths and number of missing are mutually exclusive. Injured: The number of people suffering from physical injuries, trauma or cases of disease requiring immediate medical assistance as a direct result of a disaster (hazard event). Evacuated: The number of people who temporarily moved from their homes, work places, schools, and hospitals to safer locations in order to ensure their safety. Relocated: The number of people who moved permanently from their homes to new sites due to disaster (hazard event). Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR Terminology, 2009). Hazard event: The occurrence of a natural or human-induced event that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Disaster is a concept having threshold while hazard event does not necessarily so. We recommend hazard event because national disaster loss database guideline suggests recording of loss, without setting threshold and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasizes the importance of addressing small-scale events. Note: Terminology will be discussed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group for Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. In the Proposed DRAFT national disaster loss database guideline (attached), disasters are events triggered by the following natural hazards: geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological biological and extraterrestrial. The hazard classification was developed by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme (please see the appendix B of the guideline attached) and used by UNISDR. In the guideline attached, there is NO threshold for recording loss in order to monitor all hazardous events. Small-scale but frequent hazardous events that are not registered in international disaster loss databases account for an important share of disaster damages and losses when they are combined, and often go unnoticed by the national and international community. These events, when accumulated, are often a source of poverty in developing countries but can be effectively addressed by well-designed policies. The scope of Sendai framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is the risk of small-scale and largescale, frequent and infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or man-made hazards as well as relate environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks. Regarding the inclusion of biological and environmental hazards in the natural hazards category and whether and how to integrate man-made hazards, UNISDR will discuss the issue with WHO and other organizations (for example, WHO would be in a better position in terms of data, knowledge and relationship with Member States and other stakeholders to monitor biological events including epidemics. However, we generally do not expect biological disasters will cause physical damages to facilities.). 3
Regarding the scope of disaster in targets 1.5 and 11.5, and other economic, social and environmental shocks in target 1.5, as described above, UNISDR can only compile data focused on natural hazards based on national disaster loss databases. If Member States agree to widen the scope beyond natural hazards, UNISDR will need to collaborate with other organizations. The data can be disaggregated by hazard type. When applied to proposed targets 13.1, 15.3 and 3.d, hydrological, meteorological and climatological and indirectly biological disasters are monitored. Method of computation: Summation of data on related indicators (such as deaths, missing, injured etc.) from national disaster loss databases. Make the sum a relative figure by using global population data (World Bank or UN Statistics information). Relativity is important because population growth (expected to be 9 billion in 2050) may translate into increased hazard exposure of population. Note from UNHCR, OCHA and IOM: UNHCR, OCHA and IOM agree that Displaced should be the overarching category to monitor affected people not only in the context of disaster but also in the context of any other shocks including conflict. They recommend IDMC as the most agreed source of information, with some limitations, such as some inconsistency on data for some years in some countries and the scarcity of disaggregated data. IDMC uses a variety of sources, including Government statistics, which allows tracking displacement due to small-scale events. Rationale and interpretation 1 : Cities around the world, as well as rural populations, witness growing disaster risks. Impacts of climate change on sustainable development are observed through both slow-onset events (e.g. sea level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinization, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity and desertification) and extreme weather events. Human loss can be measured by the number of deaths, missing, injured, evacuated and relocated as a direct result of disasters (hazard events). Cities are some of the most vulnerable areas to natural hazards. Unplanned urban development (e.g. informal settlements, overcrowding, inadequate infrastructures) exacerbates urban vulnerability to climate change impacts and hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Over half of all coastal areas are urbanized and 21 of the world s 33 mega cities lie in coastal flood zones. SIDS and coastal regions are particularly affected by sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion, and extreme events (e.g. tsunamis and storm surges) due to the undermining natural protective barriers, low levels of development combined with rapid population growth in low lying coastal areas and inadequate capacity to adapt. Poor urban populations must often resort to unsustainable coping strategies and mechanisms. Large numbers of people remain perilously close to falling into poverty, experiencing shocks that they are unable to cope with. For the poor, a shock of even a relatively short impact and duration can have long term consequences. Several dimensions of poverty are closely related to environment, which is often affected by natural disasters. The poverty reduction agenda could include well-designed social protection schemes to help protecting the poor against sudden shocks and the development of capacities to better 1 Mainly based on TST Issue Brief 2, 5, 20 and 23-26. 4
predict and prepare for such shocks. Better management of natural resources can themselves strengthen the resilience of the poor, by both reducing the likelihood of natural hazard events and offering resources to help cope with them. Biodiversity provides ecosystem resilience and contributes to the ability to respond to unpredictable global changes and natural disasters. Healthy ecosystems act as buffers against natural hazards, providing valuable yet underutilized approaches for climate change adaptation, enhancing natural resilience and reducing the vulnerability of people, for example to floods and the effects of land degradation. These ecosystem services improve the sustainability and economic efficiency of built infrastructure, and are critical for sustainable and resilient urban areas. This indicator will track human-related loss. The disaster loss data on mortality is significantly influenced by large scale catastrophic events, which represent important outliers in terms of mortality, as they normally imply considerable amounts of people killed (as it was the case in Haiti, Japan, and several countries after the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004). We recommend Member States to report the data by event, so complementary analysis can be done excluding such catastrophic events than can represent important outliers in terms of mortality. The indicator will build bridge between SDGs and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction because the reduction of human related loss is included in Sendai Framework global targets and will also be monitored under the Sendai Framework Monitoring System. Sources and data collection: National disaster loss database, reported to UNISDR Disaggregation: by event, by hazard type (for example climate related and non-climate related is possible following IRDR classification), by deaths/missing/injured/evacuated/relocated, by sex (highly likely), by sub-national administrative unit (highly likely), by age group (potential). Comments and limitations: This is a preliminary proposal based on our experience and knowledge built in the period under the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015). The proposed indicators are also used to monitor Sendai Framework targets and therefore the detailed definitions shall be discussed and agreed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group on Indicators and Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, as outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction 2015-2030. The Working Group is likely to finalize the discussion and submit the final report to the GA in December 2016. Not every country has a comparable national disaster loss database that is consistent with the UNISDR guidelines (current coverage is 85 countries. Additional 32 countries are expected to be covered in 2015-16). For the short term, it might be necessary to complement the data with EM- DAT, the only global coverage disaster loss database. However, this database has some limitations as small-scale events/disasters will be taken out of the picture due to the data entry threshold. Therefore, by 2020, it is expected that all countries will build/adjust the database according to the UNISDR guidelines and report the data to UNISDR. Gender equality issues: Disaggregated by sex 5
Data for global and regional monitoring: Summation of data from national disaster loss databases Supplementary information: Related targets in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower average per 100,000 global mortality between 2020-2030 compared to 2005-2015. Substantially reduce the number of affected people globally by 2030, aiming to lower the average global figure per 100,000 between 2020-2030 compared to 2005-2015. References: Please see the document attached. Contact: Kazuko Ishigaki (ishigaki@un.org) 6
Proposed indicator 2: Direct economic loss due to disasters (hazard events) in relation to global gross domestic product Goal and Target addressed: Strongly related 11.5 By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and decrease by [x] per cent the economic losses relative to gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries 1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters Related 2.4 By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality 14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans 15.3 By 2020, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a landdegradation-neutral world 3.d Strengthen the capacity of all countries, in particular developing countries, for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks. 13.b Promote mechanisms for raising capacities for effective climate change related planning and management, in least development countries, including focusing on women, youth, local and marginalized communities Definition and method of computation: Direct economic loss: Direct loss is nearly equivalent to physical damage. Examples include loss to physical assets such as damaged housings, factories and infrastructure. Direct losses usually happen within the first few hours after the event and are often assessed immediately after the event to estimate recovery cost and claim insurance payments. These are tangible and relatively easy to measure. For the economic evaluation of physical damage, please see Appendix A of the proposed DRAFT national disaster loss database guideline attached. Global gross domestic product: Summation of GDP of Member States. GDP definition according to the World Bank. Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR Terminology, 2009). 7
Hazard event: The occurrence of a natural or human-induced event that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Disaster is a concept having threshold while hazard event does not necessarily so. We recommend hazard event because national disaster loss database guideline suggests recording of loss, without setting threshold and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasizes the importance of addressing small-scale events. Note: Terminology will be discussed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group for Sendai Framework for Disaster RR. In the Proposed DRAFT national disaster loss database guideline (attached), disasters are events triggered by the following natural hazards: geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological biological and extraterrestrial. The hazard classification definition was developed by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme (please see the appendix B of the guideline attached) and used by UNISDR. In the guideline attached, there is NO threshold for recording disaster to monitor all hazardous events because small-scale but frequent hazardous events that are not registered in international disaster loss databases account for an important share of disaster damages and losses when they are combined, and often go unnoticed by the national and international community. These events, when accumulated, are often a source of poverty in developing countries but can be effectively addressed by well-designed policies. The scope of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is the risk of small-scale and largescale, frequent and infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or man-made hazards as well as relate environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks. Regarding the inclusion of biological and environmental hazards in the natural hazards category and whether and how to integrate man-made hazards, UNISDR will discuss the issue with WHO and other organizations (for example, WHO would be in a better position in terms of data, knowledge and relationship with Member States and other stakeholders to monitor biological events including epidemics. However, we generally do not expect biological disasters will cause physical damages to facilities.). Regarding the scope of disaster in targets 1.5 and 11.5, and other economic, social and environmental shocks in target 1.5, as described above, UNISDR can only compile data focused on natural hazards based on national disaster loss databases. If Member States agree to widen the scope beyond natural hazards, UNISDR will need to collaborate with other organizations. The data can be disaggregated by hazard type. When applied to proposed targets 13.1, 2.4 15.3 and 3.d, hydrological, meteorological and climatological and indirectly biological disasters are monitored. Method of computation: The original national disaster loss databases usually register physical value (housing unit loss, infrastructure loss etc.). Need conversion from physical value to monetary value according to the UNISDR methodology (please see the attached document). After converted, divide loss summation from national disaster loss database by global GDP (inflation adjusted, constant USD) calculated from World Bank Development Indicators. 8
Rationale and interpretation 2 : Cities around the world, as well as rural populations, witness growing disasters risks. Impacts of climate change on sustainable development are observed through both slow-onset events (e.g. sea level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinization, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity and desertification) and extreme weather events. The economic loss indicator would track housing, infrastructure and agriculture loss. Cities are some of the most vulnerable areas to natural hazards. Unplanned urban development (e.g. informal settlements, overcrowding, inadequate infrastructures) exacerbates urban vulnerability to climate change impacts and hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Over half of all coastal areas are urbanized and 21 of the world s 33 mega cities lie in coastal flood zones. SIDS and coastal regions are particularly affected by sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion, and extreme events (e.g. tsunamis and storm surges) due to the undermining natural protective barriers, low levels of development combined with rapid population growth in low lying coastal areas and inadequate capacity to adapt. Poor urban populations must often resort to unsustainable coping strategies and mechanisms. Large numbers of people remain perilously close to falling into poverty, experiencing shocks that they are unable to cope with. For the poor, a shock of even a relatively short impact and duration can have long term consequences. Several dimensions of poverty are closely related to environment, which is often affected by natural disasters. The poverty reduction agenda could include well-designed social protection schemes to help protecting the poor against sudden shocks and development of capacities to better predict and prepare for such shocks. Better management of natural resources can themselves strengthen the resilience of the poor, by both reducing the likelihood of natural hazard events and offering resources to help cope with them. The environment for food production is increasingly challenging, particularly for smallholders, due to environmental and climate-related factors. Similar to extreme income poverty, food insecurity continues to be predominantly concentrated in rural areas of developing countries, and disproportionately affects poor farmers, agricultural workers, pastoralists and rural communities. Common conditions for protracted crisis situations include frequent or continued exposure to shocks that undermine livelihoods, food and market systems. Special consideration needs to be given to population living in areas prone to environmental and natural disaster shocks. Biodiversity provides ecosystem resilience and contributes to the ability to respond to unpredictable global changes and natural disasters. Healthy ecosystems act as buffers against natural hazards, providing valuable yet underutilized approaches for climate change adaptation, enhancing natural resilience and reducing the vulnerability of people, for example to floods and the effects of land degradation. These ecosystem services improve the sustainability and economic efficiency of built infrastructure, and are critical for sustainable and resilient urban areas. This indicator will track direct physical loss expressed in economic term. The disaster loss data are significantly influenced by catastrophic event ( outliers issue). We recommend Member States to report the data by event, so complementary analysis can be done excluding such catastrophic events. We limit the economic loss into direct economic loss, excluding indirect loss (e.g. loss due to interrupted 2 Mainly based on TST Issue Brief 2, 3, 5, 20 and 23-26. 9
production) and macro-economic loss. The reason is that there is not yet universally standardized methodology to measure indirect and macro-economic loss while direct loss data monitoring is relatively simpler and more standardized. The indicator will build bridge between SDGs and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction because the reduction of human related loss is included in Sendai Framework global targets and will also be monitored under the Sendai Framework Monitoring System. Sources and data collection: National disaster loss database, reported to UNISDR Disaggregation: by event, by hazard type (for example climate related and non-climate related is possible following IRDR classification), by asset loss category (housing/urban infrastructure/school and housing/road/ agriculture), by sub-national administrative unit (highly likely) Comments and limitations: This is a preliminary proposal based on our experience and knowledge built in the period under the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015). The proposed indicators are also used to monitor Sendai Framework targets and therefore the detailed definitions shall be discussed and agreed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group on Indicators and Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, as outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction 2015-2030. The Working Group is likely to finalize the discussion and submit the final report to the GA in December 2016. Not every country has a comparable national disaster loss database that is consistent with the UNISDR guidelines (current coverage is 85 countries. Additional 32 countries are expected to be covered in 2015-16). For the short term, it might be necessary to complement the data with EM- DAT, the only global coverage disaster loss database. However, this database has some limitations as small-scale events/disasters will be taken out of the picture due to the data entry threshold. Therefore, by 2020, it is expected that all countries will build/adjust the database according to the UNISDR guidelines and report the data to UNISDR. Gender equality issues: Not included. Data for global and regional monitoring: Summation of data from national disaster loss databases and World Bank Development Indicator Supplementary information: Related target in the Sendai Framework for DRR: Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. References: Please see the document attached. Contact: Kazuko Ishigaki (ishigaki@un.org) 10
Proposed indicator 3: Number of housing units damaged and destroyed by disasters (hazard events) Goal and Target addressed: Strongly related 11.5 By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and decrease by [x] per cent the economic losses relative to gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations 1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries Related 14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans 15.3 By 2020, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a landdegradation-neutral world 3.d Strengthen the capacity of all countries, in particular developing countries, for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks. Definition and method of computation: Housing units damaged: The number of houses with minor damage, not structural or architectural, which may continue to be habitable, although they may require some repair or cleaning. Housing units destroyed: The number of houses levelled, buried, collapsed, washed away or damaged to the extent that they are no longer habitable. Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR Terminology, 2009). Hazard event: The occurrence of a natural or human-induced event that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Disaster is a concept having threshold while hazard event does not necessarily so. We recommend hazard event because national disaster loss database guideline suggests recording of loss, without setting threshold and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasizes the importance of addressing small-scale events. Note: Terminology will be discussed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group for Sendai Framework for DRR. 11
In the Proposed DRAFT national disaster loss database guideline (attached), disasters are events triggered by the following natural hazards: geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological biological and extraterrestrial. The hazard classification was developed by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme (please see the appendix B of the guideline attached) and used by UNISDR. In the guideline attached, there is NO threshold for recording loss in order to monitor all hazardous events. Small-scale but frequent hazardous events that are not registered in international disaster loss databases account for an important share of disaster damages and losses when they are combined, and often go unnoticed by the national and international community. These events, when accumulated, are often a source of poverty in developing countries but can be effectively addressed by well-designed policies. The scope of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is the risk of small-scale and largescale, frequent and infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or man-made hazards as well as relate environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks. Regarding the inclusion of biological and environmental hazards in the natural hazards category and whether and how to integrate man-made hazards, UNISDR will discuss the issue with WHO and other organizations (for example, WHO would be in a better position in terms of data, knowledge and relationship with Member States and other stakeholders to monitor biological events including epidemics. However, we generally do not expect biological disasters will cause physical damages to facilities.). Regarding the scope of disaster in targets 1.5 and 11.5, and other economic, social and environmental shocks in target 1.5, as described above, UNISDR can only compile data focused on natural hazards based on national disaster loss databases. If Member States agree to widen the scope beyond natural hazards, UNISDR will need to collaborate with other organizations. The data can be disaggregated by hazard type. When applied to proposed targets 13.1, 15.3 and 3.d, hydrological, meteorological and climatological and indirectly biological disasters are monitored. Note: The original database will record physical value (expressed in unit). Conversion from physical value to monetary value (in constant USD) according to the UNISDR methodology (please see Appendix A of the attached document) possible. Method of computation: Summation of data from national disaster loss databases Rationale and interpretation 3 : Cities around the world, as well as rural populations, witness growing disaster risks. Impacts of climate change on sustainable development are observed through both slow-onset events (e.g. sea level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinization, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity and desertification) and extreme weather events. Cities are some of the most vulnerable areas to natural hazards. Unplanned urban development (e.g. informal settlements, overcrowding, inadequate infrastructures) exacerbates urban vulnerability to climate change impacts and hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Over half of all coastal areas 3 Mainly based on TST Issue Brief 2, 5, 20 and 23-26. 12
are urbanized and 21 of the world s 33 mega cities lie in coastal flood zones. SIDS and coastal regions are particularly affected by sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion, and extreme events (e.g. tsunamis and storm surges) due to the undermining natural protective barriers, low levels of development combined with rapid population growth in low lying coastal areas and inadequate capacity to adapt. Poor urban populations must often resort to unsustainable coping strategies and mechanisms. Large numbers of people remain perilously close to falling into poverty, experiencing shocks that they are unable to cope with. For the poor, a shock of even a relatively short impact and duration can have long term consequences. Several dimensions of poverty are closely related to environment, which is often affected by natural disasters. The poverty reduction agenda could include well-designed social protection schemes to help protecting the poor against sudden shocks and development of capacities to better predict and prepare for such shocks. Better management of natural resources can themselves strengthen the resilience of the poor, by both reducing the likelihood of natural hazard events and offering resources to help cope with them. Biodiversity provides ecosystem resilience and contributes to the ability to respond to unpredictable global changes and natural disasters. Healthy ecosystems act as buffers against natural hazards, providing valuable yet underutilized approaches for climate change adaptation, enhancing natural resilience and reducing the vulnerability of people, for example to floods and the effects of land degradation. These ecosystem services improve the sustainability and economic efficiency of built infrastructure, and are critical for sustainable and resilient urban areas. The housing loss will influence the scope of economic loss and livelihood loss. Though being one of the most reliable loss data, we recommend using the economic loss indicators we proposed instead of this indicator if the number of indicators is limited. The disaster loss data are significantly influenced by catastrophic event ( outliers issue). We recommend Member States to report the data by event, so complementary analysis can be done excluding such catastrophic events. The indicator will build bridge between SDGs and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction because the reduction of human related loss is included in Sendai Framework global targets and will also be monitored under the Sendai Framework Monitoring System. While housing loss reduction is not directly addressed in Sendai Framework global target, it will constitute the critical part of economic loss. Sources and data collection: National disaster loss database, reported to UNISDR Disaggregation: by event, by hazard type (for example climate related and non-climate related is possible following IRDR classification), by damaged/destroyed, by sub-national administrative unit (highly likely) Comments and limitations: This is a preliminary proposal based on our experience and knowledge built in the period under the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015). The proposed indicators are also used to monitor Sendai Framework targets and therefore the detailed definitions shall be discussed and agreed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group on Indicators and Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, as outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction 2015-2030. The 13
Working Group is likely to finalize the discussion and submit the final report to the GA in December 2016. Not every country has a comparable national disaster loss database that is consistent with the UNISDR guidelines (current coverage is 85 countries. Additional 32 countries are expected to be covered in 2015-16). However, by 2020, it is expected that all countries will build/adjust the database according to the UNISDR guidelines and report the data to UNISDR. Gender equality issues: Not included Data for global and regional monitoring: Summation of data from national disaster loss databases Supplementary information and References: Please see the document attached. Contact: Kazuko Ishigaki (ishigaki@un.org) 14
Proposed indicator 4: Number of health and educational facilities and length of road destroyed and damaged by disasters (hazard events) Goal and Target addressed: Strongly related 9.1 Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, including regional and trans border infrastructure, to support economic development and human wellbeing, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all 1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters Related 11.5 By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and decrease by [x] per cent the economic losses relative to gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations 4.a Build and upgrade education facilities that are child, disability and gender sensitive and provide safe, non-violent, inclusive and effective learning environments for all 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries 14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans 15.3 By 2020, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a landdegradation-neutral world 3.6 By 2020, halve the number of global deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents 3.c Substantially increase health financing and the recruitment, development, training and retention of the health workforce in developing countries, especially least developed countries and small island developing states 3.d Strengthen the capacity of all countries, in particular developing countries, for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks. 11.2 By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all, improving road safety, notably by expanding public transport, with special attention to the needs of those in vulnerable situations, women, children, persons with disabilities and older persons Definition and method of computation: Educational facilities destroyed and damaged: The number of play schools, kindergartens, schools, colleges, universities, and training centers destroyed or damaged by the disaster (hazard event). Health facilities destroyed and damaged: The number of health centers, clinics, local and regional hospitals destroyed and damaged by the disaster (hazard event). Roads destroyed and damaged (Kilometers): The length of road networks destroyed and damaged due to the disaster (hazard event), in kilometers. Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread 15
human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR Terminology, 2009). Hazard event: The occurrence of a natural or human-induced event that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Disaster is a concept having threshold while hazard event does not necessarily so. We recommend hazard event because national disaster loss database guideline suggests recording of loss, without setting threshold and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasizes the importance of addressing small-scale events. Note: Terminology will be discussed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group for Sendai Framework for DRR. In the Proposed DRAFT national disaster loss database guideline (attached), disasters are events triggered by the following natural hazards: geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological biological and extraterrestrial. The hazard classification was developed by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme (please see the appendix B of the guideline attached) and used by UNISDR. In the guideline attached, there is NO threshold for recording loss in order to monitor all hazardous events. Small-scale but frequent hazardous events that are not registered in international disaster loss databases account for an important share of disaster damages and losses when they are combined, and often go unnoticed by the national and international community. These events, when accumulated, are often a source of poverty in developing countries but can be effectively addressed by well-designed policies. The scope of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is the risk of small-scale and largescale, frequent and infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or man-made hazards as well as relate environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks. Regarding the inclusion of biological and environmental hazards in the natural hazards category and whether and how to integrate man-made hazards, UNISDR will discuss the issue with WHO and other organizations (for example, WHO would be in a better position in terms of data, knowledge and relationship with Member States and other stakeholders to monitor biological events including epidemics. However, we generally do not expect biological disasters will cause physical damages to facilities.). Regarding the scope of disaster in targets 1.5 and 11.5, and other economic, social and environmental shocks in target 1.5, as described above, UNISDR can only compile data focused on natural hazards based on national disaster loss databases. If Member States agree to widen the scope beyond natural hazards, UNISDR will need to collaborate with other organizations. The data can be disaggregated by hazard type. When applied to proposed targets 13.1, 15.3 and 3.d, hydrological, meteorological and climatological and indirectly biological disasters are monitored. Note: The original database will record physical value (expressed in unit and meters). Conversion from physical value to monetary value (in constant USD) according to the UNISDR methodology (please see Appendix A of the attached document) possible. 16
Note2: This indicator can be divided into several indicators, one for health goal (Goal 3), second for education goal (especially proposed target 4.a). Method of computation: Summation of data from national disaster loss databases Rationale and interpretation 4 : Cities around the world, as well as rural populations, witness growing disaster risks. Impacts of climate change on sustainable development are observed through both slow-onset events (e.g. sea level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinization, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity and desertification) and extreme weather events. Cities are some of the most vulnerable areas to natural hazards. Unplanned urban development (e.g. informal settlements, overcrowding, inadequate infrastructures) exacerbates urban vulnerability to climate change impacts and hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Over half of all coastal areas are urbanized and 21 of the world s 33 mega cities lie in coastal flood zones. Poor urban populations must often resort to unsustainable coping strategies and mechanisms. Large number of people remains perilously close to falling into poverty, experiencing shocks that they are unable to cope with. For the poor, a shock of even a relatively short impact and duration can have long term consequences. Several dimensions of poverty are closely related to environment, which is often affected by natural disasters. The poverty reduction agenda could include well-designed social protection schemes to help protecting the poor against sudden shocks and development of capacities to better predict and prepare for such shocks. Better management of natural resources can themselves strengthen the resilience of the poor, by both reducing the likelihood of natural hazard events and offering resources to help cope with them. Located in places where disadvantaged groups are situated and when affordable access is addressed, infrastructures such as health, education, road and other critical infrastructures will have direct impact on reducing inequality and making growth more inclusive. To ensure environment sustainability, infrastructure development should take into account the carbon constraint, energy security and the need for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Especially, exclusion from education occurs most often among persons living in conflict and disaster contexts. Provision of quality education remains a challenge in disasters and conflict or post-conflict contexts, with children from these contexts comprising around 40% of out of school children. It is necessary to ensure safe and healthy learning environments, inclusive of safe, disaster-sensitive school buildings and classrooms. SIDS and coastal regions are particularly affected by sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion, and extreme events (e.g. tsunamis and storm surges) due to the undermining natural protective barriers, low level s of development combined with rapid population growth in low lying coastal areas and inadequate capacity to adapt. The critical infrastructure loss will influence the scope of economic loss and livelihood loss. While there are many kinds of critical infrastructures such as health, education, Information and Communication 4 Mainly based on TST Issue Brief 2, 5, 9, 12, 20 and 23-26. 17
Technologies (ICT), transportation, energy, agriculture and sanitation, currently health, education and road are the most standardized in terms of definition and data collecting methodology. The disaster loss data are significantly influenced by catastrophic event ( outliers issue). We recommend Member States to report the data by event, so complementary analysis can be done excluding such catastrophic events. The indicator will build bridge between SDG and Sendai Framework because the reduction of infrastructure loss is one of Sendai Framework global targets and will be also monitored under the Sendai Framework Monitoring System. The infrastructure loss will also constitute the critical part of economic loss, the reduction of which is a global Sendai Framework target. Sources and data collection: National disaster loss database, reported to UNISDR Disaggregation: by event, by hazard type (for example climate related and non-climate related is possible following IRDR classification), by asset (health/education/road), by sub-national administrative unit (highly likely) Comments and limitations: This is a preliminary proposal based on our experience and knowledge built in the period under the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015). The proposed indicators are also used to monitor Sendai Framework targets and therefore the detailed definitions shall be discussed and agreed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group on Indicators and Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, as outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction 2015-2030. The Working Group is likely to finalize the discussion and submit the final report to the GA in December 2016. Not every country has a comparable national disaster loss database that is consistent with the UNISDR guidelines (current coverage is 85 countries. Additional 32 countries are expected to be covered in 2015-16). However, by 2020, it is expected that all countries will build/adjust the database according to the UNISDR guidelines and report the data to UNISDR. Gender equality issues: Not included Data for global and regional monitoring: Summation of data from national disaster loss databases Supplementary information: Related target in the Sendai Framework for DRR: Substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services, among them health and educational facilities, including through developing their resilience by 2030. References: Please see the document attached. Contact: Kazuko Ishigaki (ishigaki@un.org) 18
Proposed indicator 5: Agricultural loss due to disasters (hazard events) Goal and Target addressed: Strongly related 2.4 By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality 15.3 By 2020, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a landdegradation-neutral world 1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries Related 11.5 By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and decrease by [x] per cent the economic losses relative to gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations 14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans 3.d Strengthen the capacity of all countries, in particular developing countries, for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks. 2.1 By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round 2.2 By 2030, end all forms of malnutrition, including achieving, by 2025, the internationally agreed targets on stunting and wasting in children under 5 year of age, and address the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women and older persons 2.3 By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women, indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services, markets and opportunities for value addition and non0farm employment Definition and method of computation: Agriculture loss: Agricultural loss consists of agricultural lands affected and livestock loss. Agricultural lands affected: The area of cultivated or pastoral land destroyed or damaged due to disaster (hazard event) (unit: hectare). Livestock loss: The number of 4-legged domestic animals (e.g. cow, pig, sheep, goat, cattle) lost due to disaster (hazard event). 19
Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR Terminology, 2009). Hazard event: The occurrence of a natural or human-induced event that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Disaster is a concept having threshold while hazard event does not necessarily so. We recommend hazard event because national disaster loss database guideline suggests recording of loss, without setting threshold and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasizes the importance of addressing small-scale events. Note: Terminology will be discussed in the Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group for Sendai Framework for DRR. In the proposed DRAFT national disaster loss database guideline (attached), disasters are events triggered by the following natural hazards: geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological biological and extraterrestrial. The hazard classification was developed by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme (please see the appendix B of the document attached) and used by UNISDR. In the guideline attached, there is NO threshold for recording loss in order to monitor all hazardous events. Small-scale but frequent hazardous events that are not registered in international disaster loss databases account for an important share of disaster damages and losses when they are combined, and often go unnoticed by the national and international community. These events, when accumulated, are often a source of poverty in developing countries but can be effectively addressed by well-designed policies. The scope of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is the risk of small-scale and largescale, frequent and infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or man-made hazards as well as relate environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks. Regarding the inclusion of biological and environmental hazards in the natural hazards category and whether and how to integrate man-made hazards, UNISDR will discuss the issue with WHO and other organizations (for example, WHO would be in a better position in terms of data, knowledge and relationship with Member States and other stakeholders to monitor biological events including epidemics. However, we generally do not expect biological disasters will cause physical damages to facilities.). Regarding the scope of disaster in targets 1.5 and 11.5, and other economic, social and environmental shocks in target 1.5, as described above, UNISDR can only compile data focused on natural hazards based on national disaster loss databases. If Member States agree to widen the scope beyond natural hazards, UNISDR will need to collaborate with other organizations. The data can be disaggregated by hazard type. When applied to proposed targets 13.1, 15.3 and 3.d, hydrological, meteorological and climatological and indirectly biological disasters are monitored. Note: The original national disaster loss databases will generally record physical value (expressed in hectares and number of animals). Conversion from physical value to monetary value (in constant USD) according to the UNISDR methodology (please see Appendix A of the attached document) possible. 20