Reducing the Democratic Deficit: The Causes of Low as Viewed by Canadians Jack Jedwab Executive Director Association for Canadian Studies December, 2004 1. Introduction On November 19 th, Elections Canada released detailed results for the 2004 federal election that provided valuable insights into about the voter turnout, something which diminished further in comparison with the 2000 contest. Analysts are busy focusing on the reasons for declining turnout and surely attempting to identify remedies to redress the situation prior to the next federal election. Opinion leaders have expressed increasing concern over the declining rates of voter turnout in elections which they feel represents signs of a weakening of our democratic fabric. Rarely have we explored what Canadians think about the issue. Paradoxically, while many of us do not vote, we are nonetheless about the broader impact of such inactivity on our democracy. A survey conducted by the firm Environics for the Association for Canadian Studies suggests that a majority of Canadians are with declining voter turnouts. Some 2 100 Canadians were polled between September 13 th and 15 th 2004 as to their views on voter turnout and its causes. 2. Disempowerment and Democratic Deficits As observed below, most Canadians attribute low voter turnout to the belief that people s vote has no impact--an idea that suggests a sense of disempowerment amongst the Canadian population. Some 41% of Canadians surveyed identify this as the major reason why individuals choose not to vote. Not surprisingly therefore such sentiment is particularly high in the Prairies. However it is also true for Ontarians despite their greater degree of support for the Liberal party. Quebecer s point less to disempowerment with the lowest percentage citing voter impact as the reason people choose not to vote in elections. Instead they feel that it is low interest in politics than contributes to reduce turnout to a greater extent than do other Canadians. In your opinion, what is the main reason so many Canadians choose not to vote in elections? Region Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies B.C. Provinces They believe their vote 39 31 45 45 43 has no impact They don t like any of the 26 21 24 23 28 choices They are just not 23 28 20 22 20 interested in politics They do not find the 6 12 5 5 4 issues relevant They do not have the 4 5 2 1 3 time to go vote
Paradoxically those with higher income tend to believe that voter impact is at the root of low turnout whereas those with the lowest income are equally to refer to disinterest in politics or not liking the choices as contributing factors. As we can observe in the 2004 election, persons with higher income were more likely to vote than those with lower incomes. Household income Less 20K 20K-40K 40K-80K 80K more They believe their vote has 28 38 44 45 no impact They don t like any of the 27 24 23 23 choices They are just not interested 28 22 21 22 in politics They do not find the issues 10 8 6 6 relevant They do not have the time to 4 3 3 2 go vote On the basis of age it is the baby-boomers that are most likely to cite having no impact with the youngest voters, whom are somewhat less inclined to give that reason. Age 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ They believe their vote has 36 42 44 39 no impact They don t like any of the 26 27 25 18 choices They are just not interested 23 21 19 30 in politics They do not find the issues 8 6 6 8 relevant They do not have the time to 5 2 2 2 go vote
As to party preference it is supporters of the NDP that are most likely to believe the vote has no impact followed by Conservatives with Liberals and Bloquists, who are less likely to hold that view. Federal Vote Liberal Con. NPD Bloc They believe their vote 39 44 47 34 has no impact They don t like any of 22 24 27 18 the choices They are just not 26 22 16 28 interested in politics They do not find the 7 5 6 13 issues relevant They do not have the 3 1 2 5 time to go vote 2. Who Voted in 2004? Such issues as age, region of residence, income and unemployment are all factors that may act together to influence levels of voter participation. For example, when considering income we observe below that those ridings with persons in the highest income bracket tend to vote to a greater extent than those with lower income. Federal with Highest Income in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 Dollars Don Valley West 110,393 66.3 Oakville 105,658 69.5 Thornhill 101,175 62.7 Oak Ridges-Markham 99 281 63.4 Carleton-Lanark 98 174 75.4 Pickering-Scarborough East 92 322 64.3 St-Paul s 92 267 68.1 Newmarket-Aurora 92 135 67.0 Vaughan 92 012 56.0 Nepean-Carleton 91 635 75.1
with lower income generate lower voter turnout. This suggests a relationship between personal deficits and democratic ones. Federal with Lowest Income in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 Winnipeg Centre 34,419 45.1 Hochelaga 36 434 57.8 Bourassa 36 848 57.0 Rosemont-La Petite Patrie 37 052 61.5 Dauphin-Swan River 37 361 58.6 Matapedia-Matane 37 441 54.2 Random-Burin-St. George s 38 152 44.9 Vancouver East 38 347 58.2 Quebec 38 396 60.8 Sydney-Victoria 39,150 60.6 Areas of high unemployment also tend to produce lower voter turnout. There were however exceptions to this in ridings in the Province of Nova Scotia. In addition, the ridings with the country s lowest rates of unemployment tended to produce higher rates of voter turnout. Federal with Highest Unemployment Rates in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 Humber-St.Barbe-Baie 32.6 47.8 Random-Burin-St.George s 32.0 44.9 Bonavista-Exploits 29.6 46.3 Churchill River 25.4 41.4 Cape Breton-Canso 22.9 63.8 Sydney-Victoria 21.8 60.6 Miramichi 21.7 65.4 Labrador 20.7 44.8 Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine 20.3 56.6 Churchill 20.1 46.3 Federal with Lowest Unemployment Rates in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 Gatineau 2.7 56.6 Halton 3.0 65.2 Cypress Hills-Grasslands 3.2 63.0 Newmarket-Aurora 3.2 67.0 York-Simcoe 3.2 59.3 Dufferin-Caledon 3.4 60.7 Vercheres-les Patriotes 3.4 69.7 Essex 3.5 61.1 Vaughan 3.5 56.0 Ancaster Dundas 3.6 69.9 Flamborough Westdale
For the most part, ridings with the highest rates of university degree holders tend to produce higher rates of voter participation. However, Quebec ridings tend to constitute somewhat of an exception to this situation. Federal with Highest Numbers of University Degree University Holders in 2001 and voter turnout Rates in 2004 St-Paul s 41,160 68.1 Toronto Centre 39,595 63.3 Ottawa Centre 39,300 70.3 Don Valley West 36,650 66.3 Trinity-Spadina 36,610 63.7 Willowdale 32,395 60.9 Outremont 32,150 56.1 Parkdale-High Park 29,980 64.1 Eglington-Lawrence 29,855 63.8 Laurier 29,230 60.1 Concerns over Low As observed below, concerns with low voter turnout are especially high in British Columbia and Ontario and lowest in the Atlantic Provinces. Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Region Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies B.C. Provinces Very 34 40 46 38 48 40 34 38 41 38 14 12 10 14 11 10 14 6 6 4 DK/NA 1 - - - - Anglophones are more than francophones, whereas allophones appear least over the issue.
Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Language at home English French Other Very 44 41 29 39 33 40 11 12 21 6 14 9 DK/NA - - 2 Seniors are more than youth over the issue, which may be seen as paradoxical as older Canadians are more engaged in the process. Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Age 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ Very 35 39 44 51 35 40 40 35 18 12 10 8 12 9 6 6 DK/NA - - - - Canadians that are the most dissatisfied with the federal government are the most by low voter turnout rate and not surprisingly therefore it is Conservative and NDP supporters that are the most preoccupied with this situation. Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Federal Government Satisfaction Satisfied dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Very 39 43 54 40 38 29 14 9 6 7 9 11 DK/NA - - -
As for party preference, it is the supporters of the Conservative Party that expressed the most concern over the issue of low voter turnout, followed by the supporters of the NDP. Supporters of the Liberal Party and the Bloc are the least over this issue. Voter turnout in Canadian elections has declined in recent years. How are you about Federal Vote Liberal Conservative NPD Bloc Very 40 49 43 41 41 35 39 36 12 11 12 6 7 5 6 17 DK/NA - - - -