Liberals win popular support Canadians to decide how many seats they get

Transcription

1 Liberals win popular support Canadians to decide how many seats they get Nanos National Nightly Tracking, ELECTION PROJECTION released October 18 th, 2015 (10 pm Eastern) NANOS NANOS SURVEY

2 Sunday Only Numbers: Liberals 39.1%, Conservatives 30.5%, NDP 19.7%, Green Party 4.6%, Bloc 5.5%, Other 0.5% Hope all is well. To follow are the results of the last round of tracking that we have conducted on behalf of CTV News and The Globe and Mail. Some key observations from a research standpoint on this election. 1. This was an election about change The level of totally undecided opinion in the Nanos tracking was lower than usual throughout the campaign, but the proportion of Liberal-NDP switchers was exceptionally high. This suggests that many Canadians had decided they were not voting for the Conservatives but were open to voting for either the Liberals or the NDP. 2. Who is the agent of change The first 66 days of the campaign, much of which was characterized by a tight three-way race, was about Canadians contemplating who would be the agent of change. Once the numbers started breaking in favour of the Liberals, NDP change-driven support shifted to the Liberals and a two-horse race emerged. 3. Holiday weekend shift Holidays in elections are often key junctures of opinion formation and this election was one of them. Entering the Thanksgiving long weekend, it was a twoway race between the Liberals and Conservatives. After it, the Liberals had the advantage which they maintained throughout the close of the campaign. 4. Impact of a long campaign This longer-than-usual campaign benefitted the Trudeau Liberals. At the 37-day point, there was a three-way race without the change sentiment coalescing around any one opposition party, resulting in a vote split between the Liberals and NDP. The longer campaign allowed Trudeau to incrementally demonstrate he was not as risky as the Conservatives suggested. NANOS SURVEY 2

3 More 6. Conservative ad campaign a bust The longer campaign allowed Trudeau s daily performance to invalidate the Conservative attack ads. Also of note, the research suggested that the Conservatives were strong on fiscal issues, such as controlling government spending but not on their plan for the economy. The Liberals significantly improved on this measure throughout the campaign. One Conservative ad campaign pillar ( He s just not ready ) was invalidated, while the other pillar (economic security) did not resonate. 7. Tom Mulcair and the New Democrats Beneath the numbers for top ballot and preferred Prime Minister, the research suggests that Tom Mulcair s personal brand remains strong (qualities of a good political leader question) and the proportion of Canadians that would consider voting NDP is still significant. The NDP in this election was squeezed in a change movement manifested through the Liberals and Justin Trudeau. 8. Minority or majority Nanos does not do seat projections. Our focus is to estimate the popular support and to understand the dynamic of the campaign. The research points to a Liberal victory. The magnitude of that victory -- whether it be a minority, a strong minority or a majority government -- will be decided by Canadians. 9. Nanos popular support projection During the election, we ran a three-day rolling average of political sentiment of 1,200 Canadians (400 a night). For the last three nights we doubled our sample to 800 Canadians a night. In the table below we present the individual results for Friday, Saturday and Sunday as well as the three day average. In past elections we have found the Sunday numbers have best captured the political mood on election day. 10. Range of Support Please note that estimates of popular support involve an upper and lower statistical range of outcomes (plus or minus, 19 times out of 20) which are detailed in the table below. NANOS SURVEY 3

4 Breakdown by Night I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the Nanos team for their efforts in this election. The Nanos tracking for CTV News and the Globe and Mail captured the daily ebb and flow of the election and helped us understand the true narrative of what happened in this election and why. That is what research is all about providing a window on the views of Canadians. Thanks for following Nanos Research. Regards, Ballot - Decided Voters Average (Oct 16-18) October 16 (1 day) October 17 (1 day) October 18 (1 day) Unwgt N Wgt N Liberal % Conservative % NDP % Bloc % Green % Other % Margin of Error (19 times out of 20) ±2.1 ±3.6 ±3.7 ±3.7 Nik Nanos NANOS SURVEY 4

5 Nanos Ballot Data Summary: October A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. An oversample of 800 interviews were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 2,400 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 2,400 respondents is ±2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Ballot Oct 18 (3-day average) Oct 17 1 Week Ago 1 Month Ago (Sept 18) 3 Months Ago (July 11) 1 Year Ago 12 Month High 12 Month Low Conservative 30.1% 30.5% 28.9% 30.4% 29.4% 28.9% 33.0% 25.4% NDP 21.2% 22.1% 24.3% 28.9% 30.3% 23.6% 32.9% 19.1% Liberal 38.2% 37.3% 35.7% 30.8% 28.1% 38.0% 43.0% 26.8% Green 4.7% 4.7% 4.8% 6.0% 6.4% 5.2% 7.7% 3.4% Bloc 4.9% 4.6% 5.7% 3.0% 5.3% 3.3% 6.7% 2.3% Undecided 9.4% 8.5% 9.2% 10.4% 16.0% 16.6% 21.5% 7.2% Party Consider Conservative 39.3% 39.6% 38.1% 39.6% 50.3% 42.5% 50.3% 35.1% NDP 40.4% 40.4% 42.3% 46.4% 55.6% 44.4% 55.6% 39.7% Liberal 54.7% 54.1% 52.7% 48.1% 51.0% 58.5% 59.7% 42.9% Green 22.7% 21.8% 26.3% 25.6% 31.0% 26.7% 31.0% 21.6% Bloc 30.4% 28.9% 34.3% 26.2% 31.7% 25.3% 39.6% 21.7% Category order based on number of seats in the House of Commons NANOS SURVEY 5

6 Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? [First ranked response] National Ballot October 18 (1 day only) A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. An oversample of 800 interviews were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 2,400 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for 722 decided voters is ±3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. October 18 th is a 1-day survey of 722 decided voters. Category order based on number of seats in the House of Commons NANOS SURVEY 6

7 Anatomy of October Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? [First and second ranked response] Liberal (31%) NDP (12%) 1 st Choice Conservative Green (8%) Bloc (2%) None (46%) A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. An oversample of 800 interviews were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Conservative (21%) NDP (49%) 1 st Choice Liberal Green (11%) Bloc (2%) None (16%) The daily tracking figures are based on a threeday rolling sample comprised of up to 2,400 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 2,400 respondents is ±2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will vary for subpopulations such as supporters for the respective parties. Note Bloc and Green second choice based on small sample sizes. Liberal (28%) Liberal (55%) Conservative (10%) 1 st Choice Green Conservative (10%) NDP (43%) 1 st Choice NDP Bloc (4%) Green (17%) 1 st Choice Bloc None (13%) Bloc (8%) None (10%) Liberal (16%) Conservative (13%) NDP (49%) Green (7%) None (15%) NANOS SURVEY 7

8 Ballot Tracking Atlantic October Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? [First ranked response] Atlantic Only. A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. An oversample of 800 interviews were conducted on Friday and Saturday. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of up to 2,400 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The subsample for Atlantic Canada is based on 209 decided individuals. A sample of 209 respondents is accurate ±6.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. NANOS SURVEY 8

9 Ballot Tracking Quebec October Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? [First ranked response] Quebec Only. A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. An oversample of 800 interviews were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of up to 2,400 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The subsample for Quebec is based on 533 decided individuals. A sample of 533 respondents is accurate ±4.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. NANOS SURVEY 9

10 Ballot Tracking Ontario October Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? [First ranked response] Ontario Only. A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. An oversample of 800 interviews were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of up to 2,400 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The subsample for Ontario is based on 655 decided individuals. A sample of 655 respondents is accurate ±3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. NANOS SURVEY 10

11 Ballot Tracking Prairies October Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? [First ranked response] Prairies (MB, SK, AB) Only. A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. An oversample of 800 interviews were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of up to 2,400 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The subsample for the Prairie is based on 437 decided individuals. A sample of 437 respondents is accurate ±4.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. NANOS SURVEY 11

12 Ballot Tracking British Columbia October Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? [First ranked response] British Columbia Only. A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. An oversample of 800 interviews were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of up to 2,400 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The subsample for British Columbia is based on 332 decided individuals. A sample of 332 respondents is accurate ±5.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. NANOS SURVEY 12

13 Survey Methodology A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. A double sample of 800 interviews, per night, were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The last day is based on a one day sample of 800 interviews. The margin of error for a survey of 800 respondents is ±3.5%, 19 times out of 20. The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member. NANOS SURVEY 13

14 Element Description Technical Notes Element Description Organization who commissioned the research Final Sample Size CTV; Globe and Mail; Nanos Research 2,400 randomly selected individuals; three night rolling average of 400 voters a night a double sample of 800 interviews, per night, was conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday as part of closing weekend oversample. The interviews are compiled into a three day rolling average of 2,400 interviews, where each day the oldest group of 400 interviews is dropped and a new group of 800 interviews is added. Margin of Error ±2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Mode of Survey Tracking; RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) random telephone survey. Weighting of Data Screening Excluded Demographics Stratification The results were weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information (2011) and the sample is geographically stratified to ensure a distribution across all regions of Canada. See tables for full weighting disclosure Screening ensured potential respondents did not work in the market research industry, in the advertising industry, in the media or a political party prior to administering the survey to ensure the integrity of the data. Individuals younger than 18 years old; individuals without land or cell lines could not participate. By age and gender using the latest Census information (2011) and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. Smaller areas such as Atlantic Canada were marginally oversampled to allow for a minimum regional sample. Sampling Method Base The sample included both land- and cell-lines RDD (Random Digit Dialed) across Canada. Estimated Response Rate Nine percent, consistent with industry norms. Demographics (Captured) Demographics (Other) Fieldwork/Validation Number of Calls Time of Calls Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies, British Columbia; Men and Women; 18 years and older. Six digit postal code was used to validate geography. Age, gender, education, income Live interviews with live supervision to validate work as per the MRIA Code of Conduct Maximum of five call backs. Individuals were called between 5:00-9:00pm local time for the respondent. Field Dates October 16 th, to 18 th, Language of Survey The survey was conducted in both English and French. Question Order Question Content Question Wording Survey Company Contact Question order in the preceding report reflects the order in which they appeared in the original questionnaire. This was part of a nightly omnibus survey. The preceding module included questions about national issues of concern and ballot preferences. The order of questions is as presented in the report with a randomization of the political leaders for the question involving leader qualities. Nanos Research Contact Nanos Research for more information or with any concerns or questions. Telephone:(613) ext NANOS SURVEY 14