POLAND ON TOP 2016
POLAND - THE MOST ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT IN THE CEE REGION A solid economic background and a stable political situation in Europe have boosted investments in the real estate markets. According to the Real Capital Analytics the total volume of transactions concluded in Europe was 23% higher in 2015 than the year before and exceeded EUR 285bn. Nearly 41% of accounted transactions concerned the office sector. The leading active markets remained unchanged with UK first, followed by Germany and France. Poland was ranked 11 th in Europe in terms of investment activity volumes in 2015 and outperformed all other CEE countries. In 2015, CEE countries accounted for 4% of the volume of signed deals in Europe. The total investment volume in CEE countries amounted to EUR 11.5bn and noted an 18% growth, when compared to 2014. The region of Central Eastern Europe has drawn investors attention Chart 1. Structure of the investments in Central Europe region 51% Poland 31% Czech Republic 11% Slovakia 7% Hungary Map 1. Major investment markets in Europe - share in investment volume (2015) Investment level higher than in Poland Investment level below than in Poland 1.5% Ireland 4% Spain 32% UK Chart 2. Prime yields by sector in the CEE region 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0.9% Portugal 11% France 1.3% Belgium Office Retail Industrial 3% Norway 4% Netherlands Denmark 23% Germany 1.2% Switzerland 5% Sweden Austria 3% Italy Poland 1.3% Finland 0.9% Czech Republic0.3% Slovakia Estonia Lithuania 0.2% Hungary 0.2% Romania Bulgaria 2% Russia Czech Poland Lithuania Hungary Slovakia Estonia Latvia Romania Croatia Bulgaria Slovenia Serbia Russia Ukraine Republic 5 bn 4 bn 3 bn 2 bn 1 bn Latvia 0 Croatia Montenegro Ukraine primarily to the retail sector, which made up 43% of all concluded transactions in the CEE. Being more and more courageous when investing in Europe, global investors are an increasingly willing to invest in the CEE region, that is already seen in the Polish market. In terms of alternative locations, CEE countries became an investors opportunity for risk diversification. Lithuania Estonia Russia Bulgaria Serbia It is remarkable that Poland leads the way in terms of total volume of investment transactions in the CEE region. Over EUR 4bn transaction volume in Poland accounted for nearly 51% of investment market in Central Europe, followed by Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. The stable economy and liquid market that enables the pursuit of exit strategies encourages investors to allocate funds in Poland. Roughly 50% of nearly EUR 8bn invested capital in Central Europe was made up by the retail sector and Poland stands out in terms of volume of allocated funds. Romania Chart 3. Structure of the investment in the CEE region Slovakia Hungary Poland (EUR 4.1bn) Czech Republic Office Industrial Retail Other Poland benefited mostly from German funds, followed by the US and other European investors. Activity in Poland was boosted by several large portfolio deals, most notably takeover of the majority shareholding of Echo Investment portfolio by Griffin Real Estate, and the acquisition of part of the portfolio by TPG Real Estate. First transactions closed in 2016 announced a continuation of the positive sentiment in the market. At the beginning of 2016, Redefine Properties acquired 75% of the Echo Prime Properties portfolio worth EUR 1.18bn. It is important to note that the deal was the largest in the history of Polish real estate market. Furthermore, it is expected that demand on the investment market will remain strong. With a few portfolio deals planned to be completed by the year-end, the investment volume for 2016 will reach a comparable level to the previous year. As the most mature investment market in the CEE region, Poland should be distinguished in terms of the scale of the market, the relatively wide offer of the prime assets and liquidity of the market.
COMMERCIAL 2015 turned out to be highly important in the Polish investment market. The total investment volume exceeded EUR 4bn. It recorded a 35% growth when compared to 2014 and was also the highest result noted since 2006. The largest share in the investment volume reached acquisitions in the retail and office sectors. No longer just the city of Warsaw was the attractive investment market but also other regional cities encouraged investors. Increasing demand for retail assets The total investment volume in retail sector reached the highest level since 2006 and amounted to EUR 2.2bn, accounting for 54% of total signed contracts in Poland in the commercial real estate market. The volume of retail deals in 2015 was nearly three times higher than the result recorded in 2014. The most sought-after assets in the market were shopping centres with leading market positions and retail parks in medium and small regional cities. Transactions in regional cities prevailing in the Polish office sector The total volume of investment transactions in the office sector amounted to EUR 1.3bn and accounted for 33% of all investment deals in the Polish market in 2015. In contrast to the previous years, the interest of investors in 2015 was mainly focused on regional markets. Over 66% of the Polish office transactions volume was concluded outside the Warsaw office market. More than EUR 880m spent on commercial properties was a record-breaking result in the regional office market. The dynamic growth of regional office markets and their development potential were reflected in both the number of transactions and the more opportunity - seeking behaviour of local and foreign investors. Warehouse portfolios the most sought- -after assets in the industrial sector After record-breaking 2014, the limited number of properties put up for sale resulted in decline in the volume of transactions in the industrial sector in 2015. The volume of warehouse investment transactions exceeded EUR 456m and made up 11% of share of total volume in the Polish commercial market. Over 4bn - record-breaking investment volume since 2006 Map 2. Investment volume by location 2015 Office Retail Industrial Poznań 0.5 bn Wrocław 0.4 bn Chart 4. Investment volume in Poland Tricity 0.4 bn Source: Knight Frank Katowice 0.1 bn Łódź 0.1 bn Kraków 0.6 bn Warsaw 0.6 bn Stable Growth RETAIL SECTOR 2.2 bn investment volume Total stock: 10.8 m sq m Increasing retail saturation: 240 sq m/1000 citizens, exceeding the European average density Strong developers activity: 600,000 sq m new retail supply in 2015, higher than a 5-year average Numerous redevelopments and refurbishments of existing schemes Stable demand on retail space Low levels of vacancy rates, not exceeding 5% Stable asking rents with upward pressure on prime rents OFFICE SECTOR 1.3 bn investment volume Total stock: 8.3 m sq m (55% in Warsaw, 45% in regional markets) Dynamic development Record breaking developers activity - 1.3 m sq m of space under construction at the end of 2015 (44% more than a 5-year annual average) 460,000 sq m - an average annual new supply (2010-2015) Substantial take-up - 1.3 m sq m m leased in 2015, i.e. nearly 50% more when compared with average annual volume in 2010-2014 Increasing demand on office space as Poland became major European destination for BPO/SSC services Stable asking rents 54% of investment transactions volume allocated to the retail sector 66% of office transactions volume recorded in regional markets 6 5 4 3 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 456 m investment volume Total stock: 9.9 m sq m Boom in the market Prime yields compression: 5.50% retail 6.00% office 7.00% warehouse 2 1 EUR billion 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Knight Frank Record-breaking take-up over 5.0 m sq m leased within the last two years Strong demand driven by international manufacturers, logistic operators and e-commerce sector Substantial new supply and development pipeline Increasing number of schemes on speculative basis The lowest rate in the history below 5% of the total supply Stable asking rents
STABLE ECONOMY AND LIQUID ECONOMIC BACKGROUND INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS IMPROVING POLAND S POSITION IN INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS OUTLOOK 8 th biggest EU economy in terms of GDP 3.6% estimated GDP growth in 2015 according to the Main Statistical Office forecast 50.4% of GDP - public debt burden, compared to 86.8% in the EU -0.5% inflation rate (December 2015) Decreasing unemployment rate: 7.5% in December 2015 according to Eurostat EUR 195.8 bn European Funds 2014-2020 (the largest amount among EU members) Growing industrial production, retail sale and domestic demand High supply of skilled, well-educated workforce with university degrees and speaking foreign languages. Relatively low cost of doing business (wages and rents lower than in most EU countries). Geographical proximity to Western Europe. The Warsaw Stock Exchange - the most important Stock Exchange in Central and Eastern Europe. Attractive, relatively low property prices. Special Economic Zones enabling tax exemptions. Most prospective sectors of economy: Manufacturing (Food processing, Domestic Appliances and Electronics, Automotive and Aviation, Pharmacy), services (distribution, transport, storage and communication), business services (BPO/SSC, IT, R&D centres). 98% of foreign investors in Poland would invest here again.* *according to survey conducted by PAIiIZ, Grant Thornton and HSBC, Made in Poland 2016. An Investment Guide for Manufacturing Sector Companies 25 th in Doing Business (World Bank) - 3 places up y-on-y. 39 th in the world in 2016 Index of Economic Freedom (The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal) - 3 places up y-on-y. Poland is a regional leader in the outsourced IT and BPO services. Warsaw (25 th ) and Wrocław (58 th ), are amongst Tholons Top 100 biggest movers and Kraków maintains its 9 th position amongst the Emerged Outsourcing Destinations (1 st in Europe). 17 th in the world, 1 st in CEE in Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2014 (JLL). 2 nd in CEE and 30 th in the world in terms of business transparency (Corruption Perception Index 2015). Katowice Special Economic Zone as the best special economic zone in Europe according to Global Free Zones of the Year 2015. 20 th largest receiver of foreign direct investments in the world according to World Investment Report 2015 (UNCTAD). 41 th in the world in The Global Competitiveness Poland has been developing as one of the most attractive locations in the world for professional services. The growing number of jobs created thanks to FDI and investors entering the market leads to the anticipation that this trend will continue for the foreseeable future. Forecasted growth in GDP and increasing domestic demand goes hand in hand with the further growth of the commercial market in the short and medium term. Additionally, record-breaking demand for offices and warehouse space accompanied by growing activity from developers bring positive forecasts for dynamic growth of the commercial market. Poland is already perceived as a stable capital market. An offer of prime assets is still being developed in Warsaw and regional cities. The dynamic growth of the commercial market and optimistic attitude towards the economy should be reflected in the investment market. Furthermore, the probable yield compression will provide an opportunity to increase the asset values in the future. Report 2015-2016 (World Economic Forum) 2 places up y-on-y.
COMMERCIAL Contacts in Poland: +48 22 596 50 50 www.knightfrank.com.pl RESEARCH Elżbieta Czerpak elzbieta.czerpak@pl.knightfrank.com ASSET MANAGEMENT Monika A. Dębska - Pastakia monika.debska@pl.knightfrank.com ASSET MANAGEMENT OFFICES AND LOGISTICS Bartłomiej Łepkowski bartlomiej.lepkowski@pl.knightfrank.com ASSET MANAGEMENT - RETAIL Małgorzata Szychułda malgorzata.szychulda@pl.knightfrank.com CAPITAL S Joseph Borowski joseph.borowski@pl.knightfrank.com COMMERCIAL AGENCY - OFFICE Izabela Potrykus-Czachowicz izabela.potrykus@pl.knightfrank.com COMMERCIAL AGENCY - RETAIL Paweł Materny pawel.materny@pl.knightfrank.com PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Magdalena Oksańska magdalena.oksanska@pl.knightfrank.com VALUATIONS Grzegorz Chmielak grzegorz.chmielak@pl.knightfrank.com Contacts in London: INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH Matthew Colbourne matthew.colbourne@knightfrank.com Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com.pl/en/research/ Knight Frank Sp. z o.o. 2016 This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank to the form and content within which it appears.