Daily Market Technicals

Technical Analysis Research Daily Market Technicals Friday, 05 June 2015 FX Outlook Karen Jones +44 207 475 1425 Karen.jones@commerzbank.com For important disclosure information please see pages 11 and 12. research.commerzbank.com / Bloomberg: CBKR / Research APP available

EUR/USD Rally has halted at the 2014-2015 downtrend Today s outlook: Weekly outlook: Comment: EUR/USD has rallied towards and halted just ahead of the 2014-2015 downtrend on the weekly chart at 1.1402. The risk/reward here is to go short, looking for a slide back to the 1.0875/19 region. However recent moves have felt directional and should 1.1402 be breached we will allow for a further attempt on the topside towards the 1.1468 recent high and 1.1534, the February high. Below 1.1052 will be enough to alleviate upside pressure and place attention on the 1.0874/19 region. A close below here will trigger losses to the 1.0673/78.6% retracement and then the 1.0520/1.0457 30 year uptrend and recent low. Current position:.long 1.1185. Recommended trade: Place stops below 1.1180. Partially cover 1.1280 and reverse the remainder 1.1375 stops 1.1405. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Testing the 2014-2015 downtrend. Medium term (1-3 months): Targets 1.0520/1.0457, the 30 year channel and recent low. Then 1.0000/.9900 (6 month + target). Weekly EUR/USD Chart Current Price: 1.1267 Downtrend at 1.1402 Support Resistance 1.1180, 1.1130 1.1052* 1.0980 1.0843 1.0819 Minor 26 th Mar high 55 day ma 27 th May low st 1.1392 1.1402** 1.1422/50 1.1520/34** 1.1680** 7 th May high One year dtrend 19 th Feb high Feb peak+ January low th 05 June 2015 1

USD/CHF market backing away from the 55 and 200 day ma Today s outlook: Weekly outlook: USD/CHF Daily Chart Current Price:.9338 Comment: USD/CHF has traded through but not closed below.9287, the low from the 22 nd May. This leaves our immediate outlook somewhat in limbo given good overhead resistance offered by the 200 day ma at.9533 continues to cap. Support at.9287 guards key support, which is the.9072/70 recent low and nacci retracement. A close above the 200 day ma is needed to restore the up move to the.9862 April high. 200 day ma at.9532 Current Position: Longs from.9410 stropped.9385. Recommended Trade: Attempt small longs at market, add on dips to.9325, stops.9275. Exit.9525. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Recent low at.9072 retested and holding. Medium term (1-3 months): Risks shifted to the downside using the top to provide a downside measurement targets.8850. Support Resistance.9287/75*.9072/70**.8965/36.8850*.8767 22 nd May low 7 th May low Minor Top measurem Low 26 th Jan.9478/.9533**.9715.9818*.9862* 1.0000 55+200 day ma 22 Apr high Dec high 13 th Apr high Psych. resistance th 05 June 2015 2

GBP/USD should falter ahead of the short term downtrend at 1.5448. Today s outlook: Weekly outlook: GBP/USD Daily Chart Current Price: 1.5357 Comment: GBP/USD is approaching tougher resistance circa 1.5448/1.5550, this is the location of the near term downtrend, the 200 day ma and the February high. We continue to suspect that the market has topped just ahead of key resistance offered by 1.5855/80, the October 2013 low and 50% retracement. We look for a return to the May low at 1.5121. The 200 week moving average at 1.5882 reinforces overhead resistance. Rallies should now be contained by the 1.5699 21 st May high. Near term resistance line at 1.5448 Current trade: Short 1.5390 Recommended Trade: 1.5520. add 1.5420, stop Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Faltering ahead of the 50% retracement at 1.5880. Risks shifting to downside. Medium term (1-3 months): Targets the 1.4291/29 area (longer term). Support Resistance 1.5190 1.5160* 1.5121* 1.5059 1.4953** 1.4922 55 day ma May low top of cloud Low 23 rd Jan 1.5472** 1.5491 1.5497 1.5528* 1.5699* 1.5785 Resist line 20 day ma 29 th Apr high 200 day ma 21 st May high Dec high 05 June 2015 3

USD/JPY Market is consolidating Today s outlook: Weekly outlook: Comment: USD/JPY has closed above the 124.14 June 2007 high on Monday and has consolidated sideways since. The Elliott wave count on the intraday chart is suggesting any retracement is expected to be shallow ahead of gains to 128.00/15 this is a measured upside target from an ascending triangle. Dips lower are indicated to terminate circa 123.65. Key support is considered to be the 5 month uptrend at 119.20 and while above here we remain bullish. Current Position: Holding small longs 124.46. Recommended Trade: add 123.85, stop 123.50. Partially cover 127.75 and exit the remainder 128.00. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Consolidating, bid above 122.00/119.20 Medium term (1-3 month): Has completed an ascending triangle, upside measured target 128.00/15. Daily USD/JPY Chart Current Price: 124.46 Support Resistance 123.65/50 122.04 121.86 120.51 120.41* Minor 10 th March high Dec high 5 th May high 55 day ma th 125.00/07 125.73 127.93* 128.00/15** 130.00 Psychological Dec 2002 hi Meas. Target Psychological 05 June 2015 4

AUD/USD Correction higher terminated at.7815 Today s outlook: Weekly outlook: Daily AUD/USD Chart Current Price.7704 Comment: AUD/USD s correction terminated circa.7815/18, the 38.2% retracement as expected and the market is back under pressure. We look for losses to the.7534 April low. Beyond here lies the.7459 support line ahead of the base of the 2 year down channel at 0.7390. Only above.7820 will alleviate downside pressure and trigger a recovery to thee.7880/ the 50% retracement. This guards the.8160 recent high. Our interpretation of these moves is that the market remains bearish. Current Position: Short.7770. Recommended Trade:.7820. Exit.7550. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Market looks to have topped at.8162 stop from Medium term (1-3 months): Targets.7335 longer term (6 months) and eventually a long term nacci level at.7180. Support Resistance.7618*.7600**.7561/55*.7534**.7416.7390* 28 th May low 1 st June low 11th March low 2 nd April low October 2006 low Channel.7815/18**.7863.7880*.7931*.7938.8068* 8 th May low 22 nd May high 24 th Mar low 2010 low 05 June 2015 5

EUR/JPY stalled at the top of channel at 141.17 Today s outlook: Weekly outlook: Comment: EUR/JPY has rallied to the top of its channel at 141.17 today and this looks to have held the initial test. It is possible that it will provoke failure and a slide back to the base of the channel at 134.98. Provided this holds an upside bias will remain. Above 141.17 will target 144.71, the 78.6% retracement of the move down from December 2014. Intraday Elliott counts are indicating only shallow pullbacks to circa 139.15/00. This and 138.00 guard the base of the channel. Current Position: None. Recommended Trade: Attempt tiny longs at market add 139.25, stops 139.00. Exit 141.00 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Target 136.70/137.40 met, attention reverts to the 2 month up0trend Medium term (1-3 months): Topped ahead of 150. Looking for slippage to 125.00, then 122.42/121.95. Daily EUR/JPY Chart Top of channel at 141.17 Current Price: 140.22 Support Resistance 139.00/138.25 137.65 137.20 136.96/70 135.31 Minor 20 th Jan high 200 day ma Feb high 20 day ma 140.73** 141.17** 141.21 143.79** 144.96 channel 19 th Sept high March 2014 high 16 th Dec low 05 June 2015 6

EUR/GBP Market has stalled at key near term resistance.7380/91. Today s outlook: Weekly outlook: Comment: EUR/GBP has halted for now at tougher resistance offered by.7375/91. This is the March high, the 6 month resistance line and 78.6% retracement. Failure here should see a slide back to the 55 day ma at 0.7244, which we suspect will hold for now. Below here will target.7127/23 ( + 22 nd April low) Resistance at.7391 is regarded as the last defence for the.7482 May peak. We will neutralise our outlook for now as the move feels somewhat directional. Above.7482 will introduce potential to the.7685/94, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from 2013 and the 55 week ma. Current Position: Holding small shorts.7380. Recommended trade: stops.7395. Partially cover.7265 and exit the remainder.7250. Daily EUR/GBP Chart Current Price:.7297 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Holding the base of the channel on a closing basis Resistance line at.7375 Medium term (1-3 months): Major support.7015/00 (longer term), once broken this will target.6571/41, the 2007 low. Support Resistance.7283.7243.7123.7057.7015** 18 th May high 55 day ma 22 nd Apr low Low 28 th May 11 th March low th.7375**.7385*.7391*.7443.7455 Resist line 26 March high 17 th February high 12 th February high 05 June 2015 7

EUR/CHF Failed at the top of the channel at 1.0565 EUR/CHF has rallied to and stalled at channel resistance at 1.0565 and we note that the Elliott wave count is indicating failure is likely here and we are alert to that possibility and a slide back to the 1.0411 55 day ma. There is scope for the base of the channel at 1.0288. A close above here will target 1.0591, the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year. Key support is viewed as 1.0288/80 the base of the channel and recent low. Daily EUR/CHF Chart Current Price: 1.0475 Channel at 1.0565 05 June 2015 8

Other technical analysis reports we publish are: Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Strategic Technical Themes, FX Emerging Markets Technicals; Daily Market Technicals (FX), Bullion Weekly Technicals; Daily Market Technicals (FX), Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals; Daily Market Technicals (FX); Daily Market Technicals (FX), Fixed Income Weekly Technicals. 05 June 2015 9

Explanation: This technical analysis report is based primarily on Dow theory and is using bar and candlestick charts. Support and resistance levels with no asterisk denote minor levels. One asterisk denotes an area of reasonable support or resistance, two stars are for strong areas of support or resistance. Uptr = Uptrend, connecting 3 low points. SL = Support line. Support lines have only 2 points of contact and are not as important as uptrends. Dtr= Downtrend, connecting 3 high points. RL = Resistance line. Resistance lines connect only 2 high points and are not as important as downtrends. = nacci retracement we use the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% levels. x = nacci extension we use the 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8% and 261.8% levels. Pivot point = an area on the chart which acts as both support and resistance. St = Short term level (for example St nacci retracement refers to the nearest highs and lows) Lt = Long term level (for example Lt nacci retracement refers to longer term highs and lows) 55 dma = 55 day (simple) moving average 200 wma = 200 week (simple) moving average 05 June 2015 10

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Karen Jones Head of FICC Technical Analysis Tel. +44 207 475 1425 Mail karen.jones@commerzbank.com Axel Rudolph Senior Technical Analyst Tel. +44 207 475 5721 Mail axel.rudolph@commerzbank.com Zentrale Kaiserplatz Frankfurt am Main www.commerzbank.de Postfachanschrift 60261 Frankfurt am Main Tel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20 Mail info@commerzbank.com 05 June 2015 13