CBRE Cap Rate Survey A CBRE Publication pg 2 pg 8 Multi-housing pg 17 pg 26 pg 36 pg 41 pg 45 Click to Enter
United States The financial markets have seen a whirlwind of volatility in early 2014. In January, fears of slowing growth in the developing countries translated to sharp declines in equity markets. From mid-january to early February, the S&P 500 fell 5.8% before making up for these losses in the latter part of the month. This volatility is part of the nature of publicly traded markets and it is unclear if it was reflected in the performance of commercial real estate. The REIT world provides a high-frequency view towards the pricing of commercial real estate. As shown in the chart below, pricing trends from the FTSE NAREIT index did not mirror those from the S&P 500 Index during this period of volatility. While the S&P 500 was down 3.6% from December until the end of January, the FTSE NAREIT Index was up 3.2%. In this case, the REIT market simply took a hit earlier than the developing world. 2014 Fears and Stock Market Volatility Not Hitting REIT World Month-to-Month Growth, % 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 FTSE NAREIT Price Index Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Source: NAREIT and Standard & Poors 500, February 2014. Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 S&P 500 Price Index Jan-14 Feb-14 Fear of slowing growth in the developing markets and the fall that the REIT sector experienced in mid-2013 are both tied to the same event: the mid-year taper-tantrum. When the Federal Reserve Bank announced its intention to begin unwinding the Quantitative Easing (QE) program, the financial markets reacted sharply with quick upward movements along most of the yield curve. Based on fears that increases in interest rates would lead to rising debt costs and declining asset values, the REIT world took a pricing hit, with a 15.7% decrease from the end of April until the end of August. This process took longer in the developing world, but fundamentally, the same fears were at play with hot money that flowed into the developing world in search of high yields now pulling out of these countries. These capital outflows increased the cost of capital in these countries and limited the pace of investment and growth. 2
United States (continued) In the U.S., an odd thing happened in reaction to those fears of falling asset value: not much. The Cap Rate Survey shows that there was virtually no change in cap rates for 2H 2013 from the levels seen 1H 2013. As seen in the following charts, capitalization rate spreads to the 10-year Treasury narrowed in reaction to interest rate shock. The 10-year Treasury averaged 1.99% in the second quarter of 2013, before fears of the impact of QE tapering pushed the benchmark rate up close to 3% in the fourth quarter. The 10-year Treasury averaged 2.74% in the fourth quarter. While the 10-year Treasury saw an upward movement of 75 basis points (bps), the spread to cap rates narrowed to a greater degree in most cases. BPS Spread to Ten Year Treasury 600 500 Cap Rate Spreads Narrowed from First Half 2013 400 300 200 100 0 -CBD - Suburban -Neighborhood Centers -Power Centers -High Street - Infill Multil-Housing - Suburban 1H2013 2H2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bank & CBRE Cap Rate Survey, 2013. 3
United States (continued) Hotel Cap Rate Spreads Also Narrowed from First Half 2013 CBD 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Suburban 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Economy Full Service Luxury Select Service Economy Full Service Luxury Select Service 1H2013 2H2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bank & CBRE Cap Rate Survey, 2013. Across all property sectors, multi-housing is the only sector where we see any signs of upward pressure on capitalization rates. In eight of the 41 markets surveyed, capitalization rates for Class A infill/urban product increased from 1H 2013. Given the size of the markets with increases, the average national capitalization rate was essentially unchanged. 4
United States (continued) National Level Capitalization Rates (by section, class and/or segment) Sector Class / Segment 1H 2013 2H 2013 BPS Change A 5.58% 5.49% -9 CBD B 7.10% 6.92% -18 C 9.22% 8.95% -27 A 6.78% 6.67% -11 Suburban B 8.14% 7.95% -19 C 9.59% 9.41% -18 A 6.32% 6.25% -7 B 7.26% 7.36% 10 C 8.73% 8.56% -17 A 6.26% 6.25% -1 -Neighborhood Centers B 7.21% 7.15% -6 C 8.56% 8.43% -13 A 6.86% 6.82-4 -Power Centers B 7.73% 7.72% -1 C 8.93% 8.71% -22 -High Street A 4.93% 4.81% -12 A 4.57% 4.64% 7 - Infill B 5.19% 5.16% -3 C 6.08% 5.93% -15 A 5.31% 5.32% 1 - Suburban B 6.00% 5.93% -7 C 6.99% 6.89% -10 Economy 9.28% 9.03% -25 CBD Full Service 7.54% 7.54% 0 Luxury 6.99% 6.94-5 Select Service 8.19% 8.06% -13 Economy 9.66% 9.62% -4 Suburban Full Service 8.06% 8.03% -3 Luxury 7.49% 7.48% -1 Select Service 8.54% 8.38% -16 Source: CBRE Cap Rate Survey, 2013. 5
United States (continued) In 2013, the office vacancy rate came in at 14.9% nationally, compared to 15.4% from the previous year. This 50 bps decline is due to declining vacancy in both central business district (CBD) and suburban submarkets though the bulk of the decline stemmed from the suburban submarkets. The vacancy rate for CBD submarkets fell 10 bps from the previous year to 12.3%. The vacancy rate for suburban submarkets fell more drastically, dropping 80 bps from the previous year to 16.3%. Overall, there is still more slack capacity in the suburban submarkets. While the current 16.8% is much better than the 18.7% level seen in 2010, it is still slightly higher than the 16.1% average recorded since 1988. CBD vacancy rates, by contrast, are now below the long-term average of 12.8%. The increasing pace of suburban vacancy declines and the slack capacity that still exists provide an opportunity for investors looking to generate additional income by taking on the leasing risks of office assets in suburban submarkets. availability fell to 11.3% nationally in 2013. This level is well above the long-term average availability rate of 10%. While these figures suggest a fair amount of slack capacity in the industrial markets, average asking rents are actually rising, with a 2.9% increase from the previous year. One of the issues influencing the availability rate is the significant amount of functionally obsolete space built into the overall availability figure. While the national availability rate fell 140 bps from the previous year, key distribution hubs saw sharper declines. Dallas and the Inland Empire saw declines of 290 and 260 bps, respectively. High-tech driven markets like San Francisco and Boston also saw larger declines than the national average, at 230 bps and 180 bps, respectively. While the retail sector has trailed behind other property types throughout the recovery period, retail leasing is beginning to catch up with other property sectors; availability rates were down 70 bps from the previous year, dropping to 12% at year-end 2013. This improvement has come despite a fairly weak recovery in demand; net absorption for the year was roughly half that of the peak levels seen from 2005-2007. Still, while demand remains tepid, the growth in supply has been even weaker only 12.5% of the 2005-2007 levels. The lowest cap rates were seen in the High Street component of the retail sector, with an average of 4.8% for the year-end values for Class A stabilized assets. This level is comparable to that of the highest quality multi-housing assets, which highlights the extent of investor demand for this asset class. Multi-housing assets receive assistance for such low cap rates with the financing available from government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), but this segment of retail does not. 6
United States (continued) Multi-housing continues to enjoy the healthiest fundamentals among the main property sectors. Vacancy stood at 4.8% at year-end 2013, the same level as the previous year. The long-term average vacancy rate for the sector is between 5% and 6%; and as demand continues to grow, rents will increase as well, albeit at a slower pace. Effective market rents are up 2.3% from the previous year, compared to 4.6% per year in 2011 and 2012. Renters can absorb only so much of a rent increase. Still, while rents are not growing as quickly as they had in the past, cap rates for the multi-housing sector are the lowest among the major property sectors. For Class A stabilized assets in urban locations, cap rates came in at 3.75% for San Francisco and 4.13% in Southern California. Cap rates for suburban assets in San Francisco came in at 4%, while cap rates in the Southern California markets came in at 5%. In the hotel sector, the revenue per available room (RevPAR) continued to grow in 2013, reflecting four years of above-inflation growth. In the full-service segment, RevPAR was up 6% from the previous year, while the limited-service sector was up 6.8% from 2012. This pace of RevPAR growth is down somewhat since the start of the economic recovery in 2010. In the limited-service sector, for instance, the average pace of annual RevPAR growth from mid-2010 through mid-2012 was 9%. However, the supply of rooms was fairly constrained during that time frame. The CBRE Cap Rate Survey shows that investors are placing the most value on the RevPAR trends from the luxury segments for assets in CBD locations, with an average 6.9% cap rate across markets. The economy segments have an average cap rate of 9%, though the range is fairly wide, with markets falling anywhere from 6.5% to 11% in the spectrum. 7
Investment volume in the office sector was up 28% in 2013, with total volume of $102 billion, according to Real Capital Analytics (RCA). To put this figure into perspective, office transaction volume averaged about $108 billion per year from 2004 2006. Volume is still down from the average pace of $178 billion per year recorded in 2006 and 2007, but those figures represented an artificial high. Suburban submarkets accounted for about 49% of the volume during the past year. This shift is significant, as this segment saw sales grow at a slower pace in the early stages of the economic recovery when investors were mostly focused on CBD office investments. The CBRE Cap Rate Survey provides insight into how these trends will evolve over the next six months. CBRE Capital Markets and Valuation professionals expect that across the 40 suburban markets surveyed, cap rates for stabilized Class A assets will remain flat or show slight decreases of fewer than 20 bps in 33 markets. There are a handful of markets where stronger declines in cap rates are expected, generally those where the economic recovery has yet to strongly take root. These include some of the manufacturing markets in the Midwest and markets in the Southeast that were hit hard in the housing bust. In CBD submarkets, the same basic pattern is in place; but with so much investor interest in assets in these submarkets early in the recovery, the expectation is that there is generally less room for cap rate compression. click to download Select from the list below to access the current CBD office key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete CBD Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete CBD Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete CBD Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) Select from the list below to access the current suburban office key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Suburban Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Suburban Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Suburban Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 8
CBD Eastern Region Baltimore 6.25% - 7.00% 8.75% - 9.25% 7.75% - 9.25% 9.50% - 10.00% 10.00% + 11.00% + Boston 4.50% - 5.00% 6.00% - 8.00% 5.25% - 6.25% I 7.00% - 9.00% 6.50% - 7.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Charlotte 6.25% - 6.50% 8.50% - 9.00% 7.00% - 7.25% 9.00% - 9.50% 8.00% - 8.50% 10.00% + New York 4.00% - 4.50% 5.50% - 6.50% 4.50% - 5.50% 6.00% - 7.00% N/A N/A N/A N/A Philadelphia 6.50% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.25% 8.50% - 9.00% 8.75% - 9.50% 9.25% - 10.00% Pittsburgh 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.25% - 8.75% I 8.50% - 9.00% I 9.25% - 9.75% I 11.00% - 11.50% I 11.00% - 12.00% I Raleigh 6.25% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 8.50% - 11.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Washington, DC 4.50% - 6.00% 5.75% - 7.00% 5.25% - 7.50% 6.75% - 8.50% 7.75% - 8.00% 8.25% - 9.50% * Compared to 1st Half of 2013 Baltimore Boston Charlotte New York Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 9
CBD Midwestern Region Chicago 5.75% - 6.25% I 7.50% - 8.00% 7.00% - 7.75% I 8.75% - 10.00% 7.75% - 8.75% 9.00% - 11.00% Cincinnati 8.00% - 8.50% 9.00% - 10.00% 9.00% - 9.50% I 10.00% - 11.00% 10.00% - 11.50% 12.00% - 13.00% Cleveland 9.50% - 9.75% 9.50% - 9.75% N/A 10.00% - 10.50% N/A 10.00% - 10.50% 10.75% - 11.25% N/A 10.75% - 11.25% Columbus 7.50% - 8.50% I 9.00% - 9.75% I 8.50% - 9.50% I 9.75% - 10.75% I 10.00% - 11.50% I 11.00% - 12.00% I Detroit 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.50% - 12.00% I 10.00% - 12.00% I 10.00% - 14.00% I 12.00% - 14.00% I 12.00% - 15.00% I Indianapolis 8.00% - 8.50% I 9.50% - 10.00% 9.00% - 9.50% 10.00% - 10.50% 9.50% - 10.00% 10.50% - 11.00% Kansas City 8.25% - 8.75% I 8.25% - 8.75% 9.50% - 10.50% I 9.50% - 10.50% 11.00% - 12.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% Minneapolis 6.50% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.50% - 10.50% 10.00% - 12.00% 12.00% - 14.00% St. Louis 8.00% - 9.00% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.00% 9.50% - 10.50% 9.00% - 10.00% Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 10
CBD Southern Region * Compared to 1st Half of 2013 Atlanta 6.25% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.00% - 10.00% 8.50% - 10.00% Austin 5.75% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.50% 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% 7.75% - 8.75% 8.75% - 9.75% Dallas 6.50% - 7.50% 6.75% - 7.75% 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% 9.00% - 11.00% I 9.00% - 11.50% Houston 5.75% - 6.25% 6.50% - 7.00% I 6.50% - 7.25% 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Jacksonville 8.00% - 9.00% 9.50% - 10.50% 9.00% 10.00% - 11.00% 11.00% 12.00% + Memphis 8.50% - 9.50% 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 11.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% I 12.00% + I Miami 5.50% - 6.25% I 6.50% - 7.50% I 6.25% - 7.00% I 6.75% - 7.75% I 7.00% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.50% I Nashville 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 9.00% - 9.50% I 9.00% - 9.50% I 10.00% - 10.50% I Orlando 6.00% - 7.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.00% - 10.00% I San Antonio 6.00% - 6.50% 7.75% - 8.25% 6.50% - 7.00% 8.25% - 8.75% 7.50% + 9.00% + Tampa 6.50% - 7.50% I 7.50% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 9.00% 8.50% - 9.50% 8.75% - 9.75% 9.50% - 10.50% Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 11
CBD Western Region Albuquerque 7.50% - 8.00% 8.50% - 10.00% N/A 8.25% - 9.00% 9.50% - 12.00% N/A 9.50% - 13.00% 11.00% - 13.00% N/A Denver 5.75% - 6.25% 7.25% - 7.50% 6.50% - 7.00% I 8.25% - 8.50% 8.85% - 9.25% 10.00% - 10.50% Las Vegas 7.50% - 8.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 8.00% - 8.75% 9.50% - 10.50% I Los Angeles 4.50% - 5.00% I 7.50% - 8.00% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% 6.50% - 7.00% I 9.00% - 10.00% I Orange County 5.50% - 6.00% I 6.75% - 7.25% 6.75% - 7.25% I 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 8.50% 9.75% - 10.25% Phoenix 6.25% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.00% - 8.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 10.00% - 11.00% Portland 6.00% - 7.00% 6.75% - 7.75% I 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.50% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.50% - 10.00% I Sacramento 6.50% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.00% I 7.25% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.00% - 10.00% I Salt Lake City 6.00% - 7.50% 7.25% - 8.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.75% - 8.25% 8.00% - 9.80% 9.00% - 10.00% San Diego 6.25% - 6.75% 6.50% - 7.00% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.50% - 9.00% San Francisco 3.00% - 4.00% 5.00% - 6.00% 4.00% - 5.50% 6.00% - 7.00% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.00% San Jose 6.50% - 7.50% I 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.50% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 10.00% I 9.00% + Seattle 5.00% - 5.75% I 6.00% - 7.00% 6.00% - 6.75% 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 10.50% Albuquerque Denver Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle 12
Suburban Eastern Region Baltimore 6.50% - 7.00% 8.75% - 9.25% 7.50% - 8.50% 9.50% - 10.00% 9.50% + 11.00% + Boston 6.00% - 6.50% 6.00% - 8.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 10.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Charlotte 6.75% - 7.25% 9.00% - 9.50% 7.25% - 8.00% I 9.50% - 10.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 10.00% + Philadelphia 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 9.50% - 10.50% Pittsburgh 7.75% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.00% I 8.75% - 9.25% I 9.50% - 10.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% I Raleigh 6.25% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.50% 9.00% - 10.00% 8.50% - 11.00% 12.00% + Washington, DC 5.50% - 7.00% I 6.50% - 7.50% 6.50% - 8.00% I 7.75% - 9.25% 8.00% - 10.00% 9.50% - 10.75% Baltimore Boston Charlotte Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 13
Suburban Midwestern Region Chicago 7.25% - 8.00% 9.00% - 11.00% 8.00% - 10.00% 10.00% - 12.00% 10.25% - 12.00% 12.00% - 14.00% Cincinnati 8.00% - 8.50% I 9.00% - 10.00% 9.50% - 10.00% 10.50% - 11.50% 10.50% - 11.50% 13.00% - 14.00% Cleveland 9.50% - 10.00% 10.50% - 12.00% N/A 10.25% - 10.50% N/A 12.00% - 14.00% 10.50% - 11.00% N/A 13.00% + Columbus 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.00% - 9.75% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.75% - 10.75% I 10.75% - 11.75% I 11.00% - 12.00% I Detroit 8.75% - 10.00% I 9.50% - 12.00% I 9.50% - 12.00% I 10.50% - 14.00% 10.00% - 14.00% I 12.00% - 15.00% I Indianapolis 8.50% - 9.00% I 9.50% - 10.00% 9.50% - 10.00% 10.50% - 11.00% 10.00% - 10.50% 11.00% - 12.00% Kansas City 7.25% - 7.75% I 8.25% - 9.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 10.00% - 11.00% 10.00% - 11.00% I 12.00% - 14.00% I Minneapolis 6.75% - 8.00% 8.50% - 10.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 10.50% - 12.00% 11.00% - 12.00% 12.00% - 14.00% St. Louis 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.00% 10.00% - 12.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 12.00% + I Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis * Forecast trends represent the CBRE professionals opinion on where ratios are likely to trend in 1st half of 2014 in their local market. 14
Suburban Southern Region Atlanta 6.75% - 7.75% 7.75% - 8.50% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 8.50% - 10.00% 9.50% - 11.00% Austin 5.75% - 6.50% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 7.75% - 8.75% 9.00% - 11.00% Dallas 6.50% - 7.25% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.25% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 10.00% 9.00% - 10.55% Houston 5.75% - 6.25% 7.00% - 8.00% 6.75% - 7.25% 8.50% - 9.50% 8.50% - 9.50% I 10.00% - 12.00% I Jacksonville 7.80% - 8.50% 9.00% - 10.00% 9.00% - 10.00% I 10.50% - 12.00% 10.00% - 11.00% I 12.00% + I Memphis 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.25% - 8.75% I 8.50% - 9.50% 9.00% - 10.00% 9.00% - 10.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% I Miami 6.50% - 7.25% I 7.00% - 8.25% 7.00% - 8.50% 8.00% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.00% - 11.00% I Nashville 6.50% - 7.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 9.00% - 9.50% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 10.50% I Orlando 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 10.00% - 12.00% I 12.00% - 14.00% I San Antonio 7.00% - 7.25% 8.00% - 8.25% I 7.25% - 8.00% 8.50% - 8.75% 8.50% + 9.00% + Tampa 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.75% - 8.50% 8.25% - 9.00% 8.75% - 9.50% 9.00% - 10.25% 9.75% - 11.75% Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 15
Suburban Western Region Albuquerque 7.50% - 8.00% 8.50% - 10.00% N/A 8.25% - 9.00% 9.50% - 12.00% N/A 9.50% - 12.00% 11.00% - 13.00% N/A Denver 6.50% - 7.00% 8.00% - 8.50% 7.25% - 7.75% 9.00% - 9.50% 9.25% - 10.25% 11.25% - 11.75% I Las Vegas 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Los Angeles 4.50% - 5.00% I 7.00% - 7.50% I 5.50% - 6.50% I 7.50% - 8.50% I 6.50% - 7.50% I 8.50% - 9.50% I Orange County 5.50% - 6.00% I 6.75% - 7.25% 6.75% - 7.25% I 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 8.50% 9.75% - 10.25% Phoenix 6.25% - 7.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.00% - 8.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.50% - 10.50% I 11.00% - 12.00% Portland 7.25% - 8.25% I 7.75% - 8.75% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.50% - 9.50% I 8.75% - 9.75% I 8.50% - 10.75% I Sacramento 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.75% - 8.75% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.75% - 9.75% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.75% - 11.00% I Salt Lake City 7.00% - 7.75% 7.50% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.75% - 9.50% 9.25% - 10.25% San Diego 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.00% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.75% - 8.25% San Francisco 5.50% - 6.50% I 6.50% - 7.50% I 6.50% - 7.50% 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% I San Jose 5.80% - 6.50% 7.00% - 8.00% 6.50% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.00% + 9.00% + Seattle 6.00% - 6.50% I 7.50% - 8.50% 6.50% - 7.50% 8.25% - 9.25% 7.25% - 8.25% 9.00% - 10.50% Albuquerque Denver Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle 16
Among all sectors of commercial real estate investment, multi-housing saw the earliest turnaround in investor interest. The stabilizing influence of the debt provided by the GSEs, such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, was an enormous boost to market liquidity. Multi-housing transaction volume for 2013 totaled $104.5 billion, according to RCA. Total sales volume was up $17.0 billion from the previous year, but represents a slowing pace of growth. Volume grew 19.4% in 2013, down from the average 52.8% pace of growth in 2011 and 2012. CBRE Capital Markets and Valuation professionals expect that of the 41 markets surveyed, only seven will experience compression in cap rates for Class A stabilized assets in infill locations over the next six months. The markets where further compression is expected are secondary and tertiary markets. However, CBRE does not expect further compression in all secondary and tertiary markets. The expectation for cap rates trends for Class A stabilized assets in suburban submarkets is roughly the same as that for such assets in urban/infill locations. One primary market that stands out is Atlanta, where the expectation is that cap rates for suburban assets will see further cap rate compression over the next six months. click to download Select from the list below to access the current multi-housing infill/urban key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Infill/Urban Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Infill/Urban Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Infill/Urban Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) Select from the list below to access the current multi-housing suburban key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Suburban Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Suburban Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Suburban Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 17
Infill/Urban Eastern Region Baltimore 4.25% - 4.75% 4.75% - 5.50% 5.50% - 6.00% 6.25% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.50% 7.25% - 7.50% Boston 4.00% - 4.50% I 5.50% - 6.00% 4.50% - 5.00% 6.00% - 6.50% N/A N/A 6.25% - 6.75% Charlotte 4.75% - 5.25% I 5.25% - 5.75% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.50% - 7.00% 6.75% - 7.25% I New York 4.00% - 5.00% 5.00% - 5.50% I 4.50% - 5.00% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.00% - 6.00% I 6.00% - 7.00% I Philadelphia 5.00% - 5.25% I 6.20% - 6.50% 6.25% - 6.75% I 7.00% - 7.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.00% Pittsburgh 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.50% - 7.00% I 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.50% - 9.00% I Raleigh 4.50% - 5.50% I 5.25% - 5.75% 5.50% - 6.50% N/A N/A 6.50% - 8.00% N/A N/A N/A Washington, DC 4.25% - 4.75% 4.75% - 5.00% N/A 5.50% - 6.00% 5.75% - 6.25% 6.75% - 7.25% N/A 7.00% - 7.50% I Baltimore Boston Charlotte New York Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 18
Infill/Urban Midwestern Region Chicago 4.25% - 4.75% I 4.50% - 5.00% I 4.75% - 5.25% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.75% - 6.25% I Cincinnati 5.25% - 5.50% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.00% - 6.50% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 8.50% Cleveland 6.00% - 7.00% N/A N/A 7.50% - 8.00% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Columbus 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 9.00% 8.75% - 9.25% Detroit 6.75% - 7.75% I 7.75% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.50% I 8.25% - 8.75% 8.75% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 10.50% Indianapolis 5.75% - 6.25% 6.50% - 7.00% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 9.00% - 9.50% Kansas City 5.25% - 5.50% N/A N/A N/A 6.25% - 6.50% N/A N/A 7.50% - 8.00% N/A N/A N/A Minneapolis 4.50% - 5.00% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.25% - 5.75% 5.75% - 6.25% 6.50% - 8.00% I St. Louis 5.50% - 6.25% N/A N/A 6.50% - 7.25% N/A N/A 7.75% - 9.25% N/A N/A Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 19
Infill/Urban Southern Region Atlanta 4.30% - 4.80% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.50% - 6.00% 6.50% - 6.75% 6.50% - 7.00% Austin 4.25% - 4.75% I 4.50% - 5.25% 4.75% - 5.25% 5.00% - 5.75% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.00% - 5.75% Dallas 4.25% - 4.75% 4.50% - 5.00% N/A 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% N/A 6.00% - 6.50% 6.25% - 6.75% N/A Houston 4.50% - 5.00% I 4.75% - 5.25% I 5.50% - 6.00% 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.25% - 6.75% Jacksonville 4.50% - 5.00% 5.75% - 6.25% 5.00% - 5.50% 6.00% - 6.50% N/A 6.50% - 8.00% 6.50% - 8.50% N/A Memphis 5.75% - 6.25% I 5.50% - 6.25% 6.00% - 7.00% 5.75% - 6.50% 8.00% + 7.50% + Miami 4.25% - 5.25% 4.75% - 5.50% 4.75% - 5.75% 5.00% - 6.25% I 6.50% - 8.00% I 6.50% - 8.50% Nashville 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.25% - 7.75% I Oklahoma City 6.00% - 6.50% I N/A N/A 6.75% - 7.25% I N/A N/A 7.75% - 8.25% N/A N/A Orlando 4.75% - 5.25% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.50% - 6.00% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.50% 7.00% - 8.50% San Antonio 5.50% - 5.75% I N/A N/A 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.25% - 6.75% I 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.00% - 7.50% Tampa 4.50% - 5.00% 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.25% - 5.75% 5.75% - 6.25% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Oklahoma City N/A N/A N/A Orlando San Antonio Tampa 20
Infill/Urban Western Region Albuquerque 5.95% - 6.20% N/A N/A 6.15% - 6.35% 8.00% - 8.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 10.00% - 10.50% Denver 4.75% - 5.25% I 5.10% - 5.60% 5.35% - 5.85% I 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.40% - 6.90% Inland Empire 4.75% - 5.25% I 5.00% - 5.50% 5.00% - 5.50% 6.00% - 6.50% 5.50% - 6.00% 6.50% - 7.00% I Los Angeles 4.00% - 4.25% 4.25% - 4.50% 4.25% - 4.50% 4.50% - 5.00% 4.50% - 5.00% 5.00% - 5.50% N/A Orange County 4.00% - 4.25% N/A 4.25% - 4.50% N/A 4.25% - 4.50% N/A 4.50% - 5.00% N/A 4.50% - 5.00% N/A 5.00% - 5.50% N/A Phoenix 4.75% - 5.00% I 5.25% 5.25% - 5.75% I 5.50% - 6.00% 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.25% - 6.75% Portland 4.25% - 4.50% 4.25% - 4.75% 4.50% - 5.00% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.00% - 5.50% 6.25% - 6.75% Sacramento 4.25% - 4.75% 4.75% - 5.25% 5.25% - 5.75% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.75% - 6.25% 6.25% - 6.75% Salt Lake City 5.25% - 6.00% 5.75% - 6.25% I 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.00% - 6.50% 6.00% - 7.00% I 6.25% - 7.00% I San Diego 4.00% - 4.25% 4.25% - 4.75% I 4.50% - 5.00% I 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.00% - 6.50% I San Francisco Bay Area 3.50% - 4.00% 4.50% 4.00% - 4.50% 5.00% 4.50% - 5.00% 5.50% Seattle 4.00% - 4.50% I 4.50% - 5.00% I 4.75% - 5.25% I 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.50% - 6.00% 5.75% - 6.25% I Albuquerque Denver Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Seattle 21
Suburban Eastern Region Baltimore 4.75% - 5.25% 5.25% - 5.75% N/A 6.00% - 6.50% 6.25% - 6.75% 6.75% - 7.50% N/A 7.25% - 7.75% Boston 4.50% - 5.00% 5.75% - 6.25% 5.00% - 5.50% 6.50% - 7.00% 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% Charlotte 5.25% - 5.75% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.75% - 7.25% 7.00% - 7.50% I Philadelphia 5.00% - 5.50% 6.40% - 6.70% 6.25% - 6.75% I 7.00% - 7.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.00% I Pittsburgh 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.50% - 7.00% I 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.50% - 9.00% I Raleigh 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.25% - 5.75% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.25% - 6.75% N/A 7.00% - 8.50% 7.50% - 8.50% N/A Washington, DC 4.75% - 5.25% 5.00% - 5.50% N/A 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% 7.50% - 7.50% N/A 7.50% - 8.00% I Forecast trends* Baltimore Boston Charlotte Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 22
Suburban Midwestern Region Chicago 5.25% - 5.75% 5.50% - 6.00% 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.00% - 7.50% Cincinnati 5.50% - 6.00% 6.50% - 7.00% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.00% Cleveland 6.00% - 7.25% N/A N/A 7.25% - 8.25% N/A N/A 8.50% - 9.50% N/A N/A Columbus 6.00% - 6.50% 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.25% - 7.75% 8.00% - 9.00% 8.75% - 9.25% Detroit 6.75% - 7.75% I 7.75% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.50% I 8.25% - 8.75% I 8.75% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 10.50% Indianapolis 6.00% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.75% - 8.25% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.75% - 9.25% Kansas City 5.50% - 6.00% I 6.50% - 7.00% 6.00% - 6.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% 7.25% - 7.75% 9.00% - 9.50% Minneapolis 5.25% - 5.50% 5.50% - 6.00% 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% I St. Louis 5.50% - 6.25% I N/A N/A 6.50% - 7.25% N/A N/A 7.75% - 9.25% N/A N/A Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 23
Suburban Southern Region Atlanta 5.00% - 5.50% 6.00% - 6.50% 5.50% - 6.00% 6.50% - 7.00% I 6.50% - 7.00% 7.50% - 7.75% Austin 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.25% - 5.75% I 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.25% - 6.75% I 6.50% - 7.00% I Dallas 5.25% - 5.75% 6.25% - 6.75% N/A 6.25% - 6.75% 6.50% - 7.00% N/A 7.25% - 7.75% 7.50% - 8.25% N/A Houston 5.50% - 6.00% I 6.25% - 6.75% 6.25% - 6.75% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.50% - 8.25% Jacksonville 5.25% - 5.75% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.00% - 6.50% N/A N/A 6.75% - 7.50% N/A N/A Memphis 5.75% - 6.50% I 6.25% - 6.75% 6.50% - 8.00% 7.00% - 7.75% I 8.00% + 8.25% - 9.00% Miami 4.50% - 5.25% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.00% - 5.75% 5.25% - 6.25% 6.50% - 8.00% I 6.50% - 8.50% Nashville 5.50% - 6.00% 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% I Oklahoma City 6.25% - 6.75% I N/A N/A 7.00% - 7.50% I N/A N/A 7.75% - 8.25% N/A N/A Orlando 4.75% - 5.25% 5.25% - 5.75% I 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.50% 7.00% - 8.00% I San Antonio 5.50% - 5.75% I 6.25% - 6.75% N/A 6.00% - 6.50% I 7.00% - 7.50% 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% Tampa 5.00% - 5.50% 5.25% - 5.75% 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.00% - 6.50% I 7.00% - 7.50% 7.25% - 7.75% Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Oklahoma City N/A N/A N/A Orlando San Antonio Tampa * Forecast trends represent the CBRE professionals opinion on where ratios are likely to trend in the1st half of 2014 in their local market. 24
Suburban Western Region Albuquerque 5.75% - 6.35% 6.75% - 7.25% 6.25% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.50% 7.00% - 7.50% 8.50% - 10.50% Denver 4.90% - 5.40% 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 6.10% - 6.60% 6.10% - 6.60% 7.00% - 7.50% Inland Empire 4.85% - 5.35% 5.25% - 5.75% 5.00% - 5.50% 6.00% - 6.50% 5.75% - 6.25% 6.75% - 7.25% Las Vegas 5.00% - 5.50% 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.25% - 6.25% 5.75% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.00% - 7.75% Los Angeles 4.75% - 5.00% 5.25% - 5.50% 4.75% - 5.25% 5.50% - 6.00% 5.50% - 6.00% 6.25% - 6.75% N/A Orange County 4.75% - 5.00% 5.25% - 5.50% N/A 4.75% - 5.25% I 5.50% - 6.00% 5.50% - 6.00% 6.25% - 6.75% Phoenix 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.50% - 6.00% 5.00% - 5.50% 5.75% - 6.25% 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.50% - 7.00% Portland 5.00% - 5.50% 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 6.00% - 6.50% 5.75% - 6.00% 6.75% - 7.50% Sacramento 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.50% - 6.00% I 6.00% - 6.50% I 6.00% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.00% Salt Lake City 5.25% - 6.00% 5.75% - 6.25% I 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.00% - 6.50% 6.00% - 7.00% I 6.25% - 7.00% I San Diego 4.75% - 5.00% 5.25% - 5.50% 4.75% - 5.25% 5.50% - 6.00% I 5.50% - 6.00% 6.25% - 6.75% San Francisco Bay Area 3.75% - 4.25% 5.00% 4.25% - 4.75% 5.50% 4.75% - 5.25% 6.00% Seattle 4.25% - 4.75% 4.75% - 5.25% I 5.00% - 5.50% I 5.25% - 5.75% I 5.00% - 6.00% 6.00% - 6.50% I Albuquerque Denver Inland Empire Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Seattle * Forecast trends represent the CBRE professionals opinion on where ratios are likely to trend in 1st half of 2014 in their local market. 25
The retail sector continues to see increases in sales volume, despite lagging behind other property sectors in the early stages of the recovery. Sales volume hit $61.6 billion in 2013, up from $56.6 billion in 2012. This 8.8% increase for retail overall is split between growth in some subtypes and pullback in others. Sales volume for strip-center retail was up 28.2% from the previous year, hitting $27.7 billion for the year. The mall segment saw volume of $33.9 billion for the year, down from $35 billion in 2012. Our survey results suggest that the cap rate compression in the retail sector that began in mid-2010 is now largely over. For Class A stabilized neighborhood center assets, CBRE professionals expect that over the course of the next six months, cap rates will remain flat or increase in 28 of the 41 markets surveyed. The same patterns are seen in the power center subtypes. As one moves up the risk spectrum to lower-grade assets, expectations for cap rate compression are less common. click to download Select from the list below to access the current neighborhood/community center (grocery anchored) retail key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) Select from the list below to access the current power center retail key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Power Center Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Power Center Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Power Center Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) Select from the list below to access the current high street retail key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download the Complete High Street Current Key Ratios and Forecast Charts (PDF) Download the Complete High Street Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 26
Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Eastern Region Baltimore 6.00% I 7.00% - 8.00% I 6.50% 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.00% 9.00% - 10.00% Boston 5.00% - 6.00% 5.50% - 6.50% 6.25% - 8.00% 7.00% - 9.00% I 9.00% - 10.00% N/A N/A Charlotte 5.75% - 6.75% 7.50% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.00% - 8.75% I 8.50% - 9.50% 9.00% - 10.50% New York 4.00% - 4.50% N/A 5.00% - 5.50% N/A 4.50% - 5.00% N/A 5.50% - 6.00% N/A 5.00% - 6.00% N/A 6.00% - 7.00% N/A Philadelphia 6.50% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 9.00% - 9.50% 11.00% - 11.50% Pittsburgh 6.75% - 7.25% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.50% - 10.50% I 11.00% - 12.00% I Raleigh 6.00% - 7.25% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.25% - 8.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 8.00% - 11.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Washington, DC 5.50% - 6.00% 7.00% - 7.75% 6.00% - 6.75% 8.00% - 8.75% 6.75% - 7.25% 9.00% - 11.50% Baltimore Boston Charlotte New York Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 27
Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Midwestern Region Chicago 5.75% - 6.25% 6.50% - 7.00% I 6.75% - 7.25% I 7.25% - 7.75% 7.75% - 8.25% 8.25% - 8.75% Cincinnati 6.00% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.00% Cleveland 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.25% - 7.75% 7.75% - 8.25% 8.25% - 8.75% 8.75% - 9.25% Columbus 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.50% - 9.00% Detroit 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.50% 9.00% - 10.00% 9.50% - 11.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Indianapolis 6.00% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.25% I 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.50% - 9.00% Kansas City 6.00% - 6.50% 6.75% - 7.25% I 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.50% - 9.00% Minneapolis 5.75% - 6.25% 6.50% - 7.00% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.75% - 8.25% 8.25% - 8.75% St. Louis 6.10% - 6.75% I 6.75% - 7.35% I 7.00% - 7.75% 7.75% - 8.50% 8.75% - 9.50% 9.25% - 10.50% Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 28
Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Southern Region Atlanta 6.50% - 7.00% 6.50% - 7.50% 6.75% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.00% + I 8.50% + Austin 5.25% 7.00% 6.75% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% Dallas 5.00% - 5.25% 7.00% 6.50% - 6.75% 8.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 10.00% Houston 6.50% - 7.00% 8.50% - 9.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 9.50% - 10.50% 8.50% - 9.00% 10.50% - 11.00% Jacksonville 6.00% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.00% - 8.00% 9.00% 9.50% - 11.00% Memphis 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.50% - 9.00% I 10.00% - 11.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% I Miami 5.75% - 6.25% 6.50% - 7.00% 6.25% - 7.25% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.50% - 9.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% Nashville 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 9.00% - 9.50% I 9.00% - 9.50% I 10.00% - 10.50% I Orlando 6.00% - 6.50% 7.25% - 8.00% 6.50% - 7.50% 8.25% - 9.00% 8.00% - 10.00% 10.00% + I San Antonio 5.75% 8.00% 7.25% 9.00% 9.50% 11.00% Tampa 6.25% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.50% 7.00% - 8.50% 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.00% - 10.00% 9.00% - 11.00% I Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 29
Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Western Region Albuquerque 7.00% - 7.50% N/A 8.00% - 8.50% N/A 8.00% - 8.50% N/A 8.50% - 9.50% N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 10.00% - 11.00% N/A Denver 5.75% - 6.25% 7.25% - 7.75% N/A 6.75% - 7.25% 8.25% - 8.75% 8.25% - 8.75% 9.25% - 9.75% Las Vegas 6.75% - 7.50% 8.00% - 9.00% 7.25% - 8.25% 9.00% - 10.00% 8.00% - 9.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Los Angeles 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.00% + 8.50% + Orange County 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.00% + 8.50% + Phoenix 5.75% - 6.25% I 7.00% - 7.50% 6.50% - 7.00% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.50% - 10.00% Portland 5.50% - 6.25% 6.50% - 7.25% 6.50% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 7.50% - 8.50% 9.50% - 11.00% N/A Sacramento 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% 9.00% - 11.00% I Salt Lake City 6.75% - 7.25% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.75% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.00% - 9.00% San Diego 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.00% + 8.50% + San Francisco 5.00% - 6.00% 6.00% - 7.00% 6.00% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% San Jose 5.00% - 6.00% 6.00% - 7.00% 6.00% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% Seattle 5.00% - 5.75% 6.00% - 7.50% I 6.00% - 6.75% 7.00% - 8.50% I 7.00% - 7.75% 8.00% - 9.50% I Albuquerque Denver Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle 30
Power Center Eastern Region Baltimore 6.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.00% 8.50% - 9.50% I 9.50% I 10.50% - 12.00% I Boston 5.50% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.50% 7.00% - 8.50% 7.50% - 9.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 10.00% - 12.00% I Charlotte 6.75% - 7.50% 7.75% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.50% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.50% 8.00% - 10.50% I Philadelphia 8.00% - 8.50% 9.00% - 9.50% 8.50% - 9.00% 10.00% - 11.00% 9.00% - 9.50% 11.00% - 11.50% I Pittsburgh 7.75% - 8.25% I 9.00% - 9.50% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 11.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% I 12.00% - 13.00% I Raleigh 6.00% - 7.25% 8.00% - 9.00% 7.25% - 8.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 8.00% - 11.00% I 12.00% - 15.00% I Washington, DC 6.00% - 6.50% 7.50% - 8.25% 6.50% - 7.00% 8.50% - 9.25% 7.00% - 7.50% 9.50% - 11.00% I Baltimore Boston Charlotte Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 31
Power Center Midwestern Region Chicago 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.75% - 8.25% I 7.75% - 8.25% 8.50% - 9.00% I Cincinnati 6.50% - 7.00% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.25% - 7.75% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.75% - 9.25% I Cleveland 6.75% - 7.25% I 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.25% - 8.75% I 8.25% - 8.75% I 9.00% - 9.50% I Columbus 6.75% - 7.25% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.25% - 7.75% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.75% - 9.25% I Detroit 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.50% 9.00% - 10.00% 9.50% - 11.00% I 10.00% - 12.00% I Indianapolis 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.25% - 7.75% 7.25% - 7.75% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.75% - 9.25% I Kansas City 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.25% - 7.75% 7.25% - 7.75% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.75% - 9.25% I Minneapolis 6.25% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.75% - 8.25% 7.75% - 8.25% 8.50% - 9.00% I St. Louis 6.25% - 7.00% 6.90% - 7.65% I 7.10% - 7.85% 8.00% - 8.85% 8.50% - 9.25% 9.45% - 10.65% I Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 32
Power Center Southern Region Atlanta 6.75% - 7.50% I 7.00% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.00% + 9.00% + I Austin 6.50% 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.75% I 8.50% - 9.50% 9.00% 10.00% I Dallas 6.00% - 6.50% N/A N/A 7.50% - 7.75% N/A N/A 8.50% - 9.00% N/A I Houston 7.50% - 8.00% 9.00% - 9.50% 8.00% - 8.50% 9.50% - 10.00% 8.50% - 9.50% 11.00% - 12.00% I Jacksonville 6.75% - 7.50% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.25% 8.00% - 9.00% 9.00% + 10.00% + I Memphis 7.75% - 8.25% 8.25% - 8.75% 8.75% - 9.25% 9.50% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 11.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% I Miami 6.25% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.50% N/A 8.00% - 9.50% I Nashville 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 9.00% - 9.50% I 9.00% - 9.50% I 10.00% - 10.50% I Orlando 6.50% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.50% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 8.00% - 10.00% 10.00% I San Antonio 7.00% 8.00% 8.25% 9.00% - 10.00% 9.50% 10.00% - 11.00% I Tampa 6.50% - 7.50% 7.75% - 8.75% 7.25% - 8.75% 8.25% - 9.25% 8.25% - 10.25% 9.25% - 11.25% I Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 33
Power Center Western Region Albuquerque 7.00% - 7.50% N/A 8.00% - 8.50% N/A 8.00% - 8.50% N/A 8.50% - 9.50% N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 10.00% - 11.00% I Denver 6.00% - 6.50% I 7.50% - 8.00% N/A 6.75% - 7.25% 8.50% - 9.00% 8.75% - 9.25% 9.00% - 9.50% I Las Vegas 7.50% - 7.75% 8.00% - 9.00% 7.75% - 8.25% 9.50% - 10.50% 8.25% - 9.25% 12.00% - 15.00% I Los Angeles 6.50% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% + 9.00% + I Orange County 6.50% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% + 9.00% + I Phoenix 5.75% - 6.25% 8.00% - 8.50% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 10.00% - 11.00% I Portland 6.00% - 6.75% 7.00% - 7.75% 7.00% - 8.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% 8.50% - 10.00% 9.50% - 11.00% I Sacramento 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.00% - 9.00% 9.00% - 10.00% I Salt Lake City 6.75% - 7.25% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.25% - 7.75% 7.75% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.00% 9.00% - 10.00% I San Diego 6.50% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% + 9.00% + I San Francisco 5.50% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.50% - 12.00% I San Jose 5.50% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.00% 9.50% - 12.00% I Seattle 6.00% - 7.00% I 7.00% - 9.00% I 6.75% - 7.50% 8.50% - 10.00% I 7.50% - 8.50% 9.50% - 11.00% I Albuquerque Denver Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle 34
High Street National Class A Boston 4.00% - 5.00% Chicago 4.50% - 5.50% I Los Angeles 4.25% - 5.25% Manhattan 3.50% - 4.50% Miami 4.50% - 5.25% Philadelphia 5.50% - 6.50% San Francisco 4.25% - 5.25% Seattle 4.25% - 5.25% Washington, DC 5.25% - 5.75% I Boston Chicago Charlotte Los Angeles Manhattan Miami Philadelphia San Francisco Seattle Washington, DC Class A * Forecast trends represent the CBRE professionals opinion on where ratios are likely to trend in the1st half of 2014 in their local market. 35
Sales transaction activity in the industrial sector hit $47 billion in 2013, up 16.2% from the previous year. All of this growth is attributed to warehouse segments, which saw volume increase to $33.3 billion for the year, up $6.7 billion from the previous year. The flex segment, by contrast, saw no growth, with $14.1 billion in volume in 2012 and 2013. By comparison, the average annual pace set from 2003-2007 was roughly $41.7 billion. CBRE Capital Markets and Valuation professionals expect that cap rates for stabilized Class A industrial assets have largely reached the end of the compression that began in early 2010. In 29 of the 41 markets surveyed, Class A stabilized cap rates are expected to be flat or increase over the next six months. However, moving into lower grade assets changes the picture, with expectations that cap rates for stabilized Class B assets will see further cap rate decreases in 20 out of the 41 markets surveyed. click to download Select from the list below to access the current industrial key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 36
Eastern Region Baltimore 5.65% - 6.10% I 6.75% - 7.25% 6.50% - 7.50% 7.75% - 8.25% 8.00% + 9.00% + Boston 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 10.00% 11.00% + Charlotte 6.50% - 7.25% I 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 8.50% 7.25% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% Northern New Jersey 5.00% - 5.50% 6.25% - 6.75% 6.25% - 6.75% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% N/A 9.00% - 9.50% N/A Philadelphia 6.00% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.50% - 8.50% 9.00% - 9.50% 9.50% - 10.00% Pittsburgh 7.50% - 8.25% 7.75% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% I 8.75% - 9.75% 9.50% - 10.50% 10.50% - 11.50% Raleigh 6.25% - 7.50% 7.75% - 8.25% 7.50% - 8.50% N/A 8.25% - 9.00% N/A 8.50% - 10.00% N/A 10.50% - 11.50% N/A Washington, DC 5.50% - 6.00% 7.55% - 8.00% 6.75% - 7.50% I 8.25% - 9.00% 8.25% - 9.00% 9.25% Baltimore Boston Charlotte Northern New Jersey Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 37
Midwestern Region Chicago 5.40% - 5.75% 6.75% - 7.25% I 6.75% - 7.25% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.50% - 9.50% I 10.00% - 12.00% Cincinnati 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.50% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.00% 9.50% - 10.50% 9.00% - 10.00% I 11.00% - 12.00% Cleveland 7.50% - 8.50% 9.00% - 12.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 12.00% - 14.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 14.00% - 16.00% I Columbus 6.75% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 9.50% I 8.50% - 9.75% I 10.00% - 10.75% I 9.50% - 10.50% I 10.75% - 12.00% I Detroit 8.10% - 8.40% I 9.25% - 9.50% 8.70% - 8.90% 9.50% - 9.75% 9.10% - 9.70% 10.00% - 10.50% Indianapolis 6.25% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.00% 8.00% - 8.50% 9.00% - 9.50% 9.00% - 10.00% 11.00% - 12.00% Kansas City 6.75% - 7.25% I 8.00% - 8.50% 8.00% - 8.50% 9.00% - 9.50% 9.00% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 12.00% I Minneapolis 6.25% - 6.75% I 7.25% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.50% - 10.00% 8.50% - 9.50% 10.00% - 12.00% St. Louis 6.10% - 6.85% 7.25% - 7.75% I 8.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.00% 9.00% - 11.00% 10.00% - 12.00% Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis * Forecast trends represent the CBRE professional's opinion on where ratios are likely to trend in the 1st half of 2014 in their local market. 38
Southern Region Atlanta 5.85% - 6.25% 6.75% - 7.25% 6.75% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.00% - 9.00% 10.00% + Austin 6.25% - 7.25% 6.50% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.25% 7.75% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.25% 8.75% - 9.50% Dallas 5.50% - 6.00% 6.00% - 6.75% 6.50% - 7.50% 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.00% - 11.00% Houston 5.00% - 6.00% 5.50% - 7.00% 6.00% - 8.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.50% I 8.00% - 9.00% Jacksonville 7.00% - 7.50% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 10.00% - 11.00% 10.50% - 11.50% I 12.00% - 13.00% I Memphis 6.75% - 7.25% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.50% - 9.50% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 11.00% I Miami 5.25% - 6.00% I 6.25% - 7.00% I 5.50% - 6.50% I 6.50% - 7.50% I 6.00% - 7.50% I 7.00% - 8.50% I Nashville 6.50% - 7.50% I 7.50% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 9.00% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 11.00% I Orlando 6.00% - 7.00% 7.00% - 8.00% I 7.00% - 8.00% 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.00% - 10.00% 10.00% - 11.00% I San Antonio 6.75% - 7.00% 7.75% - 8.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 8.00% - 8.75% 8.00% + 9.00% - 10.50% Tampa 6.50% - 7.50% I 7.25% - 8.25% I 8.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.25% I 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.50% - 11.00% I Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 39
Western Region Albuquerque 7.75% - 8.25% I 8.50% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.25% 9.00% - 10.00% 9.00% - 10.00% 10.00% - 11.00% Denver 6.50% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.00% 8.50% - 9.50% 9.50% - 10.00% Inland Empire 4.75% - 5.75% 5.75% - 6.75% 5.85% - 6.50% 7.00% - 7.75% 6.00% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.00% Las Vegas 6.75% - 7.25% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.50% - 8.00% 8.00% - 9.00% 8.00% - 9.00% Los Angeles 4.75% - 5.75% 5.75% - 6.75% 5.85% - 6.50% 7.00% - 7.75% 6.00% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.00% Orange County 4.90% - 5.25% I 6.50% - 7.00% 5.25% - 5.60% I 7.00% - 7.50% 6.00% - 7.00% 8.00% - 8.50% Phoenix 6.25% - 6.75% 6.75% - 7.25% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.50% I 8.00% - 9.25% I 9.00% - 11.00% Portland 6.00% - 6.50% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 8.00% - 8.50% 8.50% - 9.50% 9.50% - 10.00% Sacramento 6.50% - 7.25% 7.25% - 8.00% 7.00% - 8.00% 8.25% - 9.25% 8.00% - 9.00% 9.25% - 11.00% Salt Lake City 6.00% - 6.50% 6.50% - 7.00% 6.50% - 7.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 7.00% - 8.00% 7.50% - 8.50% San Diego 5.75% - 6.25% I 6.25% - 6.75% I 6.25% - 6.75% I 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.25% - 8.00% 7.75% - 8.25% I San Francisco Bay Area 4.50% - 5.50% 5.00% - 6.00% 6.00% - 7.25% 6.50% - 7.50% 8.00% - 9.00% 9.00% + Seattle 5.00% - 5.50% I 6.50% - 7.00% I 5.50% - 6.00% 7.00% - 7.50% 6.00% - 7.00% 7.50% - 8.50% I Albuquerque Denver Inland Empire Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Seattle 40
The CBRE Cap Rate Survey provides information on the hotels sector that is unavailable elsewhere. With transaction volume representing less than 10% of total activity across all commercial property types, the hotel sector often does not offer a sufficient number of transactions to develop reliable benchmarks of sales comparables. For markets in which comparable sales are thin, we combine the insight of CBRE Capital Markets and Valuation professionals to gauge the levels at which assets will trade. Hotel transaction activity for 2013 was up 28.8% from the previous year, according to RCA. Investment volume for the year came in at $26.3 billion. This increased activity was heavily weighted in the full-service sector, with total volume of $18.8 billion, up $4.4 billion from the previous year. The limited-service sector only saw $1.5 billion in volume growth. Data from the CBRE Cap Rate Survey suggest that the cap rate compression seen in the hotel sector starting in 2009 is now at an end. The Capital Markets and Valuation teams expect the CBD luxury segment to see ongoing decreases in cap rates over the next six months in only four of the 38 markets surveyed. Even in the economy segments, to which investors have only recently returned, there is little expectation of ongoing cap rate compression; only four of the 38 surveyed CBD markets are expected to see declines. click to download Select from the list below to access the current hotels key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 41