Population and Education in Texas: Implications of Population Change and Immigration for The United States and Texas in the 21 st Century

Population and Education in Texas: Implications of Population Change and Immigration for The United States and Texas in the 21 st Century Taken from: Steve Murdock (2006) Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research The University of Texas at San Antonio

Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms in the United States, 2000-2005 Numerical Percent 2000 2005 Change Change State Population* Population* 2000-2005 2000-2005 California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7 Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6 Florida 15,982,378 17,789,864 1,807,486 11.3 Georgia 8,186,453 9,072,576 886,123 10.8 Arizona 5,130,632 5,939,292 808,660 15.8 North Carolina 8,049,313 8,683,242 633,929 7.9 Virginia 7,078,515 7,567,465 488,950 6.9 Nevada 1,998,257 2,414,807 416,550 20.8 Washington 5,894,121 6,287,759 393,638 6.7 Colorado 4,301,261 4,665,177 363,916 8.5 * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2005. Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio

Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups Texas Texas Comparison Group Value Rank Areas By Percent of Total Population in 2000 Anglo 53.1 47 Ahead of Hawaii; 30.1 Ahead of New Mexico; 45.7 Ahead of California; 48.4 Black 11.6 18 Highest is Mississippi; 36.4 Lowest is Montana; 0.4 Hispanic 32.0 3 New Mexico; 42.1 California; 32.4 Other 3.3 22 Highest is Hawaii; 60.5 Lowest is West Virginia; 0.9

Numerical Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 2,500,000 2,329,761 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,354,081 1,000,000 941,383 783,036 500,000 283,818 445,293 178,037 307,220 0 Anglo Black Hispanic Other 1980-1990 1990-2000

Projected Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000-2040* 70.0 Percent 60.0 59.2 53.1 53.2 50.0 45.1 46.5 40.0 39.3 37.3 30.0 32.0 30.3 23.9 20.0 10.0 11.6 11.1 3.3 4.5 10.3 5.9 9.2 7.3 8.0 8.9 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Anglo Black Hispanic Other *Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2010-2040.

Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years of Age By Race/Ethnicity Percent < High School High School Some College Hispanic Black Anglo Asian College or More 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Projected Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040* Percent 70.0 66.3 60.0 50.0 40.0 43.2 39.5 30.0 20.0 14.4 19.9 10.0 2.9 8.3 5.5 0.0 2000 2040 Projection Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

Projected Percent of Public Community College Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040* 70.0 Percent 60.0 54.7 56.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 29.5 25.7 20.0 10.0 11.1 4.7 8.1 10.2 0.0 2000 2040 Projection Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

Projected Percent of Public University Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040* Percent 70.0 61.5 60.0 50.0 44.5 40.0 32.3 30.0 21.3 20.0 15.1 10.0 10.3 6.9 8.1 0.0 2000 2040 Projection Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

Future Demands for Specific Programs 76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth Bilingual/ESL 186.8% Economically Disadvantaged Gifted and Talented 48.5% 119.9% Immigrants Limited English Proficiency (LEP) 183% 188.1% Special Education 64.7% Title 1 Career and Technology Education 69.9% 101.9% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2000-2040 Percent Change Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas

Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040* 53.1% 61.4% 58.4% 3.3% 3.0% 3.4% 11.6% 32.0% 11.4% 24.2% 10.7% 27.5% 2000 Population 2000 Householders 2000 Civilian Labor Force 7.9% 24.2% 9.0% 29.0% 7.9% 25.2% 8.8% 9.2% 8.2% 59.1% 52.8% 58.7% 2040 Population 2040 Householders 2040 Civilian Labor Force Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary and Secondary Schools and Colleges in Texas, 2000 and 2040* 43.2% 58.0% 14.4% 2.9% 5.7% 39.5% 10.7% 25.6% 2000 Public Elementary and Secondary 2000 Public Colleges and Universities 8.3% 19.9% 8.1% 28.7% 66.3% 5.5% 50.9% 12.3% 2040 Public Elementary and Secondary 2040 Public Colleges and Universities Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected Characteristics SAT Score Mean Mean Characteristic Verbal Math All Students 506 514 (N = 1,276,320) Race/Ethnicity: American Indian 481 479 African American or Black 433 426 Hispanic: Mexican American 451 458 Puerto Rican 457 451 Other Hispanic 460 465 White 529 531 Asian American or Pacific Islander 501 566 Household Income: < $10,000 421 443 $10,000-20,000 442 456 $20,000-30,000 468 474 $30,000-40,000 487 489 $40,000-50,000 501 503 $50,000-60,000 509 512 $60,000-70,000 516 519 $70,000-80,000 522 527 $80,000-100,000 534 540 > $100,000 557 569

Immigrants: Who Are They and What are Their Effects

Foreign-Born and Native-Born Generations of Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the United States, 2000 Generation Foreign-Born U.S.-Born Total Ethnic Identity (Self-Reported) First Generation Second+ Generations Number Not Hispanic N 18,706,149 227,511,277 246,217,426 % 7.6 92.4 100.0 Hispanic N 15,786,304 19,418,176 35,204,480 % 44.8 55.2 100.0 Mexican % 42.0 58.0 22,293.812 Puerto Rican a % 39.7 60.3 3,537.351 Cuban % 67.3 32.7 1,311.994 Dominican % 68.5 31.5 994.313 Salvadoran, Guatemalan % 77.5 22.5 1,532.512 Central American, other % 76.5 23.5 903.574 Columbian % 76.6 23.4 648.731 Peruvian, Ecuadorian % 77.2 22.8 697.798 South American, other % 78.3 21.7 494.186 Other Spanish, Hispanic, Latino b % 5.7 94.3 2,790.209 Total N 34,492,453 246,929,453 281,421,906 % 12.3 87.7 100.0 a Puerto Ricans born in Puerto Rico are classified as first generation ; those born in the U.S. mainland are classified as second+ generations b Persons leaving other blank but specifying their country of birth or ancestry in other census questions were assigned to the appropriate national-origin group. This occurred in about 2 million cases Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Decade of Arrival of Foreign-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the United States, 2000 Decade of U.S. Arrival Ethnic Identity Pre-1960 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s Not Hispanic N 2,163,245 1,818,758 2,963,728 4,678,592 7,230,753 % 11.5 9.6 15.7 24.8 38.3 Hispanic N 702,943 1,265,481 2,314,159 4,482,200 7,036,411 % 4.4 8.0 14.6 28.4 44.5 Total N 2,866,188 3,084,239 5,277,887 9,160,792 14,267,164 % 8.3 8.9 15.2 26.4 41.2 Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Citizenship Status of Hispanics and Non- Hispanics in the United States, 2000 U.S. Citzenship Citizen by Naturalized Not a Ethnic Identity Birthright a Citizen Citizen Not Hispanic N 229,216,195 8,616,047 8,385,184 % 93.1 3.5 3.4 Hispanic N 21,072,230 3,917,885 10,214,365 % 59.9 11.1 29.0 Total N 250,288,425 12,533,932 18,599,549 % 88.9 4.5 6.6 a Includes persons born in Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories and those born abroad with at least one parent who was a U.S. citizen Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Language Spoken at Home of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics, 2000 (Persons 5 Years and Older) First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born) English All Other English All Other Ethnic Identity Only Spanish Languages Only Spanish Languages Not Hispanic N 5,780,867 355,778 12,313,265 202,899,620 3,110,915 6,380,528 % 31.3 1.9 66.7 95.5 1.5 3.0 Hispanic N 984,087 14,422,751 105,506 5,787,871 10,167,640 66,913 % 6.3 93.0 0.7 36.1 63.5 0.4 Total N 6,764,954 14,778,529 12,418,771 208,687,491 13,278,555 6,447,441 % 19.9 43.5 36.6 91.4 5.8 2.8 Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

English Proficiency of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics Who Speak a Language Other Than English at Home (Persons 5 Years and Older) First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born) Ethnic Identity Very Well Well Not Well Very Well Well Not Well Not Hispanic N 6,422,750 3,618,000 2,640,980 7,248,659 1,368,422 879,628 % 50.6 28.5 20.8 76.3 14.4 9.3 Hispanic N 4,359,787 3,492,497 6,676,279 7,580,619 1,851,963 802,037 % 30.0 24.0 46.0 74.1 18.1 7.8 Total N 10,782,537 7,110,497 9,317,259 14,829,278 3,220,385 1,681,665 % 39.6 26.1 34.2 75.2 16.3 8.5 Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Educational Attainment of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the United States, 2000 (Persons 25 Years and Older) First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born) College College Less Than Graduate Less Than Graduate Ethnic Identity High School or More High School or More Not Hispanic N 3,213,973 5,388,741 23,821,393 37,132,874 % 21.3 35.7 16.0 25.0 Hispanic N 6,724,296 1,007,105 1,964,135 903,691 % 58.5 8.8 29.1 13.4 Mexican % 69.9 4.4 31.0 11.6 Puerto Rican % 46.4 10.9 23.2 14.8 Cuban % 40.9 18.8 13.3 34.2 Dominican % 51.8 9.5 19.3 21.4 Salvardoran, Guatamalan % 64.7 5.2 26.7 22.9 Central American, other % 42.9 13.2 13.5 33.2 Columbian % 27.9 22.0 10.7 38.3 Peruvian, Ecuadorian % 29.5 17.6 9.3 36.1 South American, other % 19.0 31.7 7.5 46.6 Other Spanish, Hispanic, Latino % 28.2 28.5 30.1 12.8 Total N 9,938,269 6,395,846 25,785,528 38,036,565 % 37.4 24.0 16.6 24.4 Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Occupational Status a of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non- Hispanics in the United States, 2000 (Employed Persons 16 and Older) First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born) Professional, Professional, Low-Wage Technical, Low-Wage Technical, Ethnic Identity Labor Managerial Labor Managerial Not Hispanic N 3,888,636 5,895,344 41,137,385 54,681,470 % 30.1 45.7 30.2 40.1 Hispanic N 6,760,643 1,752,934 2,899,023 2,287,386 % 61.5 15.9 36.4 28.7 Total N 10,649,279 7,648,278 44,036,408 56,968,856 % 44.6 32.0 30.5 39.5 a Occupations ranked by their SEI (Duncan socioeconomic index) scores Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Source: Jeffrey S. Passel. Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics. 2005. Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America s Future. Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center.

Source: Jeffrey S. Passel. Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics. 2005. Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America s Future. Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center.

Source: Jeffrey S. Passel. Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics. 2005. Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America s Future. Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center.

Percent of Workers in Selection Occupations in the United States Who Are Unauthorized Migrants, 2004 Occupation % Occupation % Drywall/ceiling tile installers... 27% Cement masons & finishers 22% Roofers 21% Construsction laborers 20% Painters, construction etc. 20% Brick/block/stone masons 19% Carpenters 12% Grounds maint. workers 26% Misc. agricultural workers 23% Hand packers & packagers 22% Graders & sorters, ag. prod. 22% Butchers/meat, poultry wrkrs 25% Dishwashers 24% Cooks 18% Dining & cafeteria attendants 14% Food prep. workers 13% Janitors & bldg. cleaners 12% Maids & housekeepers 22% Sewing machine operators 18% Cleaning/washing equip. oper 20% Packaging/filling mach. oper. 17% Metal/plastic workers, other 13% Source: Jeffrey S. Passel, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics. 2005. Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America s Future. Washington D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center

Foreign-born share of employment by occupation Farming, fishing, and forestry Cleaning and maintenance Food preparation, serving Natural resources, const & maint. Computer and math Service Production, transportation Healthcare, technical Mngmt, professionals Education Legal 13.5 11.2 8.2 6.3 22.1 22 21 20.7 19.8 32.7 38.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source: 2005, BLS

Wages of less-skilled workers are falling Real median weekly earnings by education level $/week 1000 BA degree & higher 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Some college, Associate degree High school diploma, no college Less than high school diploma 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Source: BLS

Native and foreign-born labor force change, by education College grad 5414 Some college 1483 High school grad -657 Foreign-born Native Less than high school -1407 Source: 1996-2003; BLS, Haver Analytics -2000-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Thousands

Native and foreign-born labor force change, by education College grad 2197 5414 Some college 1414 1483 High school grad -657 1547 Foreign-born Native Less than high school -1407 1662 Source: 1996-2003; BLS, Haver Analytics -2000-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Thousands

Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000* Average Income $120,000 $102,410 $104,294 $100,000 $80,000 $80,950 $80,327 $60,000 $42,271 $44,068 $52,552 $54,467 $40,000 $30,412 $32,473 $20,000 $0 Less Than High School High School Graduate Some College or Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree Texas United States *From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates Anglo < High School High School Some Coll/Assoc Bachelor's + Black < High School High School Some Coll/Assoc. Bachelor's + Hispanic < High School High School Some Coll/Assoc Bachelor's + Other 2.2 4.3 8.9 12.7 16.6 15.5 25.7 24.0 31.6 33.4 30.0 29.9 25.6 30.6 22.0 25.8 18.4 24.1 18.0 21.0 < High School 13.4 16.1 High School 7.6 20.6 Some Coll/Assoc 11.0 42.3 Bachelor's + 68.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Percent 29.6 32.1 40.5 47.8 50.7 2000 2040 *Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario