Giant Oil Fields of the World

Giant Oil Fields of the World Presentation AIM Industrial Contact Day Monday 23 rd May 25 Fredrik Robelius M.Sc. Petroleum Engineering (almost ) M.Sc. Engineering Physics

Introduction Is Peak Oil here now Peak oil 8, 7, 6, Prod 1955-22 Prod 23-22 Forecast cum prod -22 cum prod 22-22 Forecast 1,6,, 1,4,, 1,2,, 1 b/d 5, 4, 1,,, 8,, 1 b 3, 6,, 2, 4,, 1, 2,, 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Or have we heard all this before???

Oil Crisis in relation to oil price 9. 8. Oil Price in US$ 23 5) Pricepanic 1979-81 7. 6. US Dollar 5. 4. 4) Yom Kippur war 1973 6) UN Iraq embargo 199 3. 2. 1) Nationalization of Anglo-Iranian 1951 3) Six day war 1967 1. 2) Suez crisis 1956 7) War in Iraq 23. 1945 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Source: BP Statistical Review

Common factors: Geographic The oil did not reach the market Media and some governments: We are running out of oil! Today - Same old story again? or is the oil price a bad parameter? Source: CIA World Fact Book

Definitions Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR) cumulative production plus the estimated remaining reserves Gb Giga barrel = 1 9 barrels = billion barrels =.159x1 9 m 3 =159 million m 3 Giant Oil Field an oilfield with estimated ultimate recoverable oil of more than 5 million barrels (>.5 Gb)

Källa: AAPG, OGJ, Simmons & Company International The Important Parameter Giant Fields Giant fields compared to other fields with respect to: Number of fields URR Daily Production Giant Oil Fields ~1 % Other Oil Fields ~99 % URR of the Giant Oil Fields >5% URR from other oil fields < 5% Production from the 1 largest giants <5% Other Oil Field Production >5%

Top 18 Giant Fields Field Name Country Discovery year Range of URR [GB] Ghawar Saudi Arabia 1948 66-1 Burgan Greater Kuwait 1938 32-6 Safaniya Saudi Arabia 1951 21-36 Bolivar Coastal Venezuela 1917 14-36 Berri Saudi Arabia 1964 1-25 Rumalia N&S Iraq 1953 22 Zakum Abu Dhabi 1964 17-21 Cantarell Complex Mexico 1976 11-2 Manifa Saudi Arabia 1957 17 Kirkuk Iraq 1927 16 Gashsaran Iran 1928 12-15 Abqaiq Saudi Arabia 1941 1-15 Ahwaz Iran 1958 13-15 Marun Iran 1963 12-14 Samotlor Russia 1961 6-14 Agha Jari Iran 1937 6-14 Zuluf Saudi Arabia 1965 12-14 Prudhoe Bay Alaska 1969 13 Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA

Where are the giant fields?

Discovery Trends of Giant Fields 3 275 25 225 Discovered Recoverable Reserves in Giant Fields [Gb] Number of Giant Oil Fields Discovered 2 Gb & Number 175 15 125 1 75 5 25 185-1899 19-199 191-1919 192-1929 193-1939 194-1949 195-1959 196-1969 197-1979 198-1989 199-1999 Source: AAPG, UHDSG

Discovery of Giant Fields 35 giant oil fields discovered during last decade None of the fields will have a production capability above 1,, b/d The largest fields discovered the last decade: Field Country Discovery Year Ultimate Recoverable Reserves [Gb] Kashagan Kazakhstan 2 7-9 Azadegan Iran 1999 6-9 Roncador Brazil 1996 2.9 Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia 1991 1.6 Sihil Mexico 1999 1.4 Ourhoud Algeria 1994 1.2 Thunder Horse US GoM 1999 1-1.5 Source: AAPG, OGJ

Comparison of number of fields and their URR Field Name Country Discovery year Range of URR [GB] Ghawar Saudi Arabia 1948 66-1 Burgan Greater Kuwait 1938 32-6 Safaniya Saudi Arabia 1951 21-36 Bolivar Coastal Venezuela 1917 14-36 Berri Saudi Arabia 1964 1-25 Rumalia N&S Iraq 1953 22 Zakum Abu Dhabi 1964 17-21 Cantarell Complex Mexico 1976 11-2 Manifa Saudi Arabia 1957 17 Kirkuk Iraq 1927 16 Gashsaran Iran 1928 12-15 Abqaiq Saudi Arabia 1941 1-15 Ahwaz Iran 1958 13-15 Marun Iran 1963 12-14 Samotlor Russia 1961 6-14 Agha Jari Iran 1937 6-14 Zuluf Saudi Arabia 1965 12-14 Prudhoe Bay Alaska 1969 13 Reserves [Gb] Field Country Discovery Ultimate Year Recoverable Kashagan Kazakhstan 2 7-9 Azadegan Iran 1999 6-9 Roncador Brazil 1996 2.9 Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia 1991 1.6 Sihil Mexico 1999 1.4 Ourhoud Algeria 1994 1.2 Thunder Horse US GoM 1999 1-1.5 Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA

Production from Cusiana/Cupiagua Daily Prod (b/d) 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Daily Prod Cum Prod 1991 1996 21 9,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Cum Prod (b) Source: AAPG, OGJ

Production from Cantarell 2,5, 2,, Daily Prod Cum Prod 12,,, 1,,, Daily Prod (b/d) 1,5, 1,, 8,,, 6,,, 4,,, Cum Prod (b) 5, 2,,, 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Source: AAPG, OGJ

Oil Production from Mexico and their Giant Oil Fields 3,5, 3,, Mexico Oil Production Mexico Giant Fields Production Daily Production (b/d) 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Source: OGJ, AAPG, PEMEX, UHDSG

Oil Production from Norway and their Giant Oil Fields 4,, 3,5, Norway Total Norway Giants Daily Production (b/d) 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Source: NPD

Oil Production from Saudi Arabia and Ghawar Oil Field 1,, 9,, 8,, Saudi Oil Production Ghawar Production Daily Production (b/d) 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, 1935 194 1945 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Source: OGJ, AAPG, Saudi Aramco, UHDSG

Conclusion 2 years ago, 15 fields had the capacity to produce more than 1,, b/d. Today only four field can produce that much: Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), 1948 Kirkuk (Iraq), 1938 Burgan Greater (Kuwait), 1927 Cantarell (Mexico), 1976

Conclusion Producing regions will have a peak The Middle East is a key factor The giants are getting smaller, both to size and number When will the peak be? It depends on the: demand for oil, future exploration and the decline of the giants My guess/prediction is around 21