THE FUTURE OF THE OCEAN ECONOMY: EXPLORING THE PROSPECTS FOR EMERGING OCEAN INDUSTRIES TO 2030 AN OECD/IFP FORESIGHT PROJECT BARRIE STEVENS OECD/DSTI Verftskonferansen 2013 Alesund, Norway, 5 th November 2013 1
Pacific ocean photographed from Earth orbit by astronauts onboard the International Space Station, 2008
Plan of the presentation The Future of the Ocean Economy a brief overview The global context to 2030 and role of the ocean What potential for maritime sectors? Some possible implications, including for shipping and shipbuilding The project management, structure and participation 3
The Future of the Ocean Economy The Project in a Nutshell OECD playing its part in addressing many of the grand challenges facing the world in the coming decades, challenges such as supporting economic growth, feeding extra 2bn people, combating poverty, mitigating the effects of climate change, managing natural resources sustainably, finding renewable sources of energy, the ocean is indispensable in addressing these future challenges But growing the ocean economy needs to be done in a responsible way because oceans /marine eco-systems already under stress Forward look (to 2030) at the development of the ocean economy and its traditional and emerging sectors: shipping, shipbuilding, fisheries, traditional ocean and coastal tourism, ports, as well as off-shore wind, deep/ultra-deep oil & gas exploration and extraction, ocean energy, marine bio, aquaculture, sea-bed mining, ocean monitoring, ocean tourism) Focus on: ocean sectors contributions as potential sources of economic growth & employment creation; likely impacts on marine eco-systems and sustainability; future implications for managing ocean activities. 4
The global context to 2030/50 5
Population Growth Global population density World population to rise from 7 billion today to 9 billion by 2050. Average population density in coastal zones is three times higher than the world average, and in recent decades the overall growth of coastal populations has outstripped that of inland populations. Today, about one in every three people on the planet lives within 100 kilometers of the sea.
Global number of undernourished by region, 1990 92 and 2010 12 (millions) [Adapted from FAO (2012)] 7
Potential real GDP growth 2012-60 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Annual averages % change9 2012-2017 2018-2030 2031-2060 Source: Based on OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013 World economic growth is set to slow in the coming decades. But global GDP is nonetheless expected to double over the period to 2030, with GDP per capita growing by around 60%. Rise of the middle classes. Implications for demand 8
World primary energy demand likely to rise in all IEA scenarios (WEO 2012) 9
Change in annual temperature: Baseline 1990-2050 Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2050 OECD International Futures Programme 10
Oceans already under stress: Pollution from human activity Growing coastline populations Over-exploitation of fish stocks Declining biodiversity Rising sea-levels Rising levels of acidity... A question of balance Challenge: how to develop ocean s potential without adding significantly to already existing pressures 11
Trends in ocean-related sectors: a forward look at food supplies, energy and mineral resources, maritime tourism and transport. 12
Marine aquaculture further significant S&T advances required to sustain production growth (new species, development of openocean techniques, reduction of environmental impact, etc.) 13
Offshore oil deepwater production to rise from 4.8 mb/d in 2011 to 8.7 mb/d by 2035 formidable S&T challenges (in exploration, extraction, environmental security) but huge potential rewards 14
LNG trade to double to more than 575 bcm by 2035 significant scope for innovation (floating LNG facilities, sub-sea processing plants, etc.) 15
Offshore Wind Energy Cumulative Onshore and Offshore wind power in EU 1990-2030 By 2030, out of 400 GW installed capacity in Europe, 250 GW will be onshore and 150 GW offshore. Offshore farms moving increasingly further offshore and into deeper waters. 16
Wind energy sector employment Source: European Wind Energy Association (2011), Pure Power Wind energy targets for 2020 and 2030 A report by the European Wind Energy Association 2011, European Wind Energy Association, http://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/ewea_documents/documents/publications/reports/pure_power_iii.pdf. 17
Deep-sea mining Source: Joyce & Soule Prices of metals such as copper, zinc, gold and silver have hit all time highs over the past few years. With the global demand for minerals rapidly increasing, mining of mineral deposits at deep-sea vents appears to be becoming a prime target of commercial marine mining interests with lucrative prospects for the future. 18
New sea routes and natural resource opportunities opening up in the Arctic Source: Chatham House The environmental change in the Arctic has sparked new global interests in Arctic energy, fishing, shipping and tourism. 19
Implications of the development emerging ocean industries to 2030 Greater demands on eco-system management Increased need for maritime monitoring, surveillance and control Increased need for maritime spatial planning But also: Opportunities for new synergies among maritime activities New market opportunities Changing dynamics of regional and global supply chains and networks Important impacts on more traditional ocean activities such as shipping, capture fisheries, tourism Example: shipbuilding. 20
Possible implications for the future of shipping and shipbuilding Fast growth globally in some categories e.g. container traffic Mixed picture in others, e.g. crude oil, fuels, fishing... Increasing specialisation associated with emerging ocean industries 21
Emerging ocean industries = growing specialisation in vessels/structures? Drill ships and rigs - especially for deep- and ultra-deep water operations LNG vessels, floating LNG processing facilities Offshore supply vessels servicing increasingly remote oil, gas and sea-bed mining operations, off-shore wind farms Cable laying vessels, turbine installation vessels and operations and maintenance vessels, related to offshore wind farms and ocean energy devices Ocean cruise ships Ice resistant vessels 22
Work on the Project Start date: autumn 2013 Finishing date: mid-2015 Cross-OECD collaboration fisheries, shipbuilding, biotechnology, energy, tourism, environment 23
Some key elements of the project Coherent forward assessment of growth potential baseline projection of ocean sectors to 2030; Risks and uncertainties around future developments; Required progress/breakthroughs in S&T; Investment needs, future skill requirements; Environmental and eco-system impacts; Growing interdependencies among ocean sectors/users; Consequences for ocean management, planning and regulation; Policy options. 24
Management of the project Design, co-ordination and implementation conducted by DSTI/IFP Cooperation with relevant parts of OECD Secretariat and agencies Background papers and workshops in support of main modules - to be drafted by OECD specialists and external experts Strategic guidance provided by Steering Group consisting of institutions and organisations sponsoring the project 25
Expert input to the project «Supporting Cast» OECD in-house **** Fisheries (TAD) Shipbuilding (STI) Biotechnology (STI) Evnironment (ENV) Energy (IEA) Tourism (CFE) Ports (GOV) External Consultants Expert advice, guidance, comments Steering Group 1 OECD Project Team Workshops Specific inkind expert contributions from participants **** UK France OES US Etc. 26
Expected outputs A final OECD synthesis report, executive summary, main findings and policy options International symposium and other major events to highlight findings of the project Outreach through OECD committee structure, participation in external events etc. 27
Participation in the project to date OECD and non-oecd ministries/agencies Intergovernmental organisations Research institutions Foundations Now seeking business and industry partnerships 28
Thank you Barrie.Stevens@oecd.org Torgeir.Edvardsen@oecd.org Anita.Gibson@oecd.org Web site: www.oecd.org/futures 29