Future EU Climate Change Policy - Challenges and Opportunities for New Member States and Candidate Countries Conference, Budapest, 15-17 October 2007 WATER ISSUES From impact studies to adaptation Gábor Bálint, National Hydrological Forecasting Service Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute
Regional impact studies and adaptation strategies FLOODsite
CLimate ChAnge and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern EuRope Coordinated by: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Daniela Jacob Concerns mostly: Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria Associated contributor: Slovak Technical University (Tisza Basin)
CLAVIER Study Regions hydrological/water management agricultural impact energy impact tourism impact
CLAVIER Hydrologic Study Regions
Water and water management SPACE and TIME distribution related CATCHMENT, RIVER BASIN linked Often transboundary: Danube, Elbe, Oder, Nieman, Daugava CROSS SECTORAL Urban development, agriculture, energy, transport UNCERTAINITY Inherent of modelling (Almost) no comprehensive regional hydrological impact studies available
Stationarity in annual characteristics? Nagy maros dis charge s 1883-2006 átlag éves minim um éves m aximum Line áris (éves max im um) Lineáris (átlag) Lineáris (éves m inim um) 12 000 10 000 víz hoz am (m 3/s ) 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1880 18 90 1 900 1910 192 0 19 30 19 40 1950 1960 197 0 1 980 1990 2000 201 0 é ve k
Changing hydrological regime? Unusual seasonal distribution (retreating glaciers?) Rapid depletion longer low-flow periods Faster propagation of flood waves Extreme floods Oder/Odra 1997 Elbe/Labe 1997, 2002, 2006 Danube: 1991, 2002, 2006 Tributaries: Morava/March 1997, 2002, 2006, Tisza 1993, 1995, 1998--2001, 2006 Rising flood peaks!? Changing distributions? Flash flood frequency Decrease in ice phenomena
Alpine Glacier area change 1850-1970s-2000 from Zemp et al. (GRL, 2006), World Glacier Monitoring Service, Departement of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland
Mass-balance of the Vernagt glacier (after Braun et al., 1999) Braun, L. N., H. Escher-Vetter, O. Reinwarth, H. Rentsch, M. Schultz, M. Weber (1999): Klimaerwärmung Gletscher - Wie verändern sich die Gebirgsabflüsse? CD-Rom der Kommission für Glaziologie der BAW, München. 1976/1977 1997/1998
2002 augusztusa, Magyarország
2006. április
Number of flood peaks above 500 cm (100 years Danube-Budapest) Á rh ullá m o k s z á m a 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2 4 1 8 1 2 0 0 4 3 11 8 0 2 7 1 2 1 0 1 10 4 5 17 17 4 13 7 7 4 9 6 800 - cm 700-799 cm 600-699 cm 500-599 cm 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 3 3 1 jan uár febru ár m árcius áp rilis má jus jún ius júliu s aug us z tus s z ep tem ber októ ber no vem be r dec em ber
Separation of Danube flood NAGYMAROS Period 2006 Baseflow Snowmelt Rainfall induced Total flow March 1 May 2 March 21 April 15 km 3 11,84 6,12 5,15 23,11 51,2% 26,5% 22,3% 100,0% 4,66 4,16 3,80 12,62 37,0% 32,9% 30,1% 100,0%
Trends in ice phenomena The frequency and time duration of ice phenomena have decreased Climate change /variability Thermal loads and chemical pollution also reduce the probability of ice forming and blocking Ice cover upstream of barrages The activity of the ice-breaker fleet, the river stretches endangered by ice jams have become shorter
Ice phenomena on the Hungarian Danube Changes in numbers 1901-1960 1964-1986 1994-2007 Drifting ice 80% 60% 45% Ice cover 60% 40% no S. Horváth 1988, Starosolszky 1992, Keve 2002
Precipitation (Jacob et al.) Relative change of mean annual precipitation in the Tisza Basin 2061/2090-1961/1990 (%) (Contour lines indicate orographic elvation zones)
Snow cover (Jacob et al.) Relative change of snow cover in the Tisza Basin 2061/2090-1961/1990 [%] (Contour lines indicate orographic elvation zones)
Results of hydrological scenarios (Hlavcova et al.) CCCM WP 80 100 60 80 [%] 40 20 0 2010 2030 2075 [%] 60 40 20 0 2010 2030 2075-20 -40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months -20-40 -60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months SD 100 80 60 [%] 40 20 0-20 -40 2010 2030 2075-60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months
Observed and simulated floodwaves (Bálint & Gauzer) TISZA-TISZABECS Vízhozam (m3/s) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 És z le lt UKHI UKTR XCCC 500 1993 Dec e mber 0 Id (nap) de c. 7. de c. 12. dec. 17. dec. 22. dec. 27. jan. 1.
Observed and simulated floodwaves (Bálint & Gauzer) ZAGYVA-JÉSZTELEK Vízhozam (m3/s) 30 25 20 15 10 5 Észlelt UKHI UKTR XCCC 0 1988 tavasz feb. 5. feb. 15. feb. 25. már. 6. már. 16. már. 26. ápr. 5. ápr. 15. ápr. Id 25. (nap)
Total runoff (Jacob et al.) Relative change of total runoff in the Tisza Basin 2061/2090-1961/1990 [%] (Contour lines indicate orographic elvation zones)
Runoff coefficient (Jacob et al.) Relative change of runoff coefficient in the Tisza Basin 2061/2090-1961/1990 [%] (Contour lines indicate orographic elvation zones)
ADAPTATION GOOD NEWS
POSSIBLE ADAPTATION (EEA study) +1 ADAPTATION Share loss Tolerate Prevent: structural and technological (scarcity) MEASURE Insurance Do nothing (loss of alpine and nordic flora, coastal zones) Reservoirs Water transfer Water efficiency schemes Upgrade stprm and wastewater systems Irrigation
POSSIBLE ADAPTATION (EEA study) +2 ADAPTATION Prevent: structural and technological (flood) Prevent: legislation, regulation MEASURE Reservoirs Resilient infrastructure, housing Make room for rivers Coastal and flood defence structures Wildlife corridors Cross sectoral planning Land use planning improved Biodiversity protection Amend design standards
POSSIBLE ADAPTATION (EEA study) +3 ADAPTATION Changing, retreating Research, Education, Behavioural MEASURE Move people from flood risk areas Water demanding housing, tourism to be moved Forecasting and warning systems Contingency and disaster planning Improved impact staudies River basin studies Adaptation research
Key impact study issues Regional downscaling, regional hydrological scenarios Regional (large scale, transboundary) hydrological modelling based on uniform climate scenarios Intercomparison studies of (medium, small catchment) hydrological modelling exercises based on uniform climate scenarios + different land use and flood protection options
Proposed EU directive on floods Preliminary flood risk assessment Flood risk maps Flood risk management plans (river basin/subbasin level) ICPDR Sustainable Flood Management of the Danube River Basin Harmonised Design Flood Estimates
Thank you for your attention balint@vituki.hu