Progre 8 meaure in 2016, 2017, and 2018 Guide for maintained econdary chool, academie and free chool July 2016
Content Table of figure 4 Summary 5 A ummary of Attainment 8 and Progre 8 5 Expiry or review date 6 Secondary chool performance meaure 7 What will be publihed in the performance table and RAISEonline from 2016 7 The expected progre meaure 7 Floor tandard 8 Calculating Attainment 8 and Progre 8 9 Qualification included in the meaure 9 Mathematic qualification 9 Englih qualification 10 Qualification in the Englih Baccalaureate (EBacc) ubject 10 Science qualification 11 Qualification in the open element 11 Level 3 qualification 11 Point core 12 Dicounting, pathway and firt entry rule 12 Calculating Attainment 8 13 Worked Example A 13 Worked Example B 14 Calculating Progre 8 16 Calculating a pupil Progre 8 core 16 Example of fine level calculation 16 Worked Example A - continued 17 Calculating a chool Progre 8 core 18 Worked Example A continued 18 Interpreting Progre 8 core 18 Confidence interval 19 Impact of the number of qualification taken on a pupil Progre 8 core 19 Meaurement of the progre of pupil with no key tage 2 tet reult 19 2
Etimated grade 20 Pupil reaching their etimated grade 21 Setting etimated grade in advance 21 Annex A New point core cale for 2016 (and chool opting in early in 2015), 2017, and 2018 22 Worked example of how to ue thee table 27 Example A - Calculating the 2016 point for a BTEC Firt Award 27 Example B - Calculating the 2017 point for an OCR Cambridge National Certificate 27 Annex B 2015 Attainment 8 etimate 29 Annex C Key tage 2 reult ued to calculate prior attainment 30 Annex D Confidence Interval 31 Worked example A continued 32 Annex E Englih in the headline performance meaure in 2016, 2017, and 2018 33 3
Table of figure Table 1: Key tage 4 reult for Gillian... 13 Table 2: Key tage 4 reult for Hardip... 14 Table A.1 New point core cale for unreformed GCSE... 23 Table A.2 New point core cale for level 1 qualification... 24 Table A.3 New point core cale for level 2 qualification... 25 Table A.4 New point core cale for AS level and double AS level... 26 Table A.5 New point core cale for graded muic examination... 26 Table A.6 New point core cale for free tanding mathematic qualification... 27 Table A.7 New 2016 point core cale for BTEC Firt Award... 27 Table A.8 New 2017 point core cale for OCR Cambridge National Certificate... 28 Table B.1 2015 Attainment 8 etimate for each KS2 fine level... 29 4
Summary In October 2013, we announced that a new econdary chool accountability ytem will be implemented from 2016. It will include two new headline meaure, Attainment 8 and Progre 8. Thi document explain how thee meaure will be calculated in 2016 (and have been calculated in 2015 for chool that choe to adopt the new meaure a year early). It alo include change that will apply in 2017 and 2018. School had the option to adopt the new performance meaure a year early in 2015. A lit of thee early opt-in chool i available on gov.uk http://www.gov.uk/government/publication/progre-8-chool-performance-meaureearly-opt-in-chool. A ummary of Attainment 8 and Progre 8 Progre 8 aim to capture the progre a pupil make from the end of primary chool to the end of econdary chool. It i a type of value added meaure, which mean that pupil reult are compared to the actual achievement of other pupil with the ame prior attainment. The new performance meaure are deigned to encourage chool to offer a broad and balanced curriculum with a focu on an academic core at key tage 4, and reward chool for the teaching of all their pupil, meauring performance acro 8 qualification. Every increae in every grade a pupil achieve will attract additional point in the performance table. Progre 8 will be calculated for individual pupil olely in order to calculate a chool Progre 8 core, and there will be no need for chool to hare individual Progre 8 core with their pupil. School hould continue to focu on which qualification are mot uitable for individual pupil, a the grade pupil achieve will help them reach their goal for the next tage of their education or training. Attainment 8 will meaure the achievement of a pupil acro 8 qualification including mathematic (double weighted) and Englih (double weighted), 3 further qualification that count in the Englih Baccalaureate (EBacc) meaure and 3 further qualification that can be GCSE qualification (including EBacc ubject) or any other non-gcse qualification on the DfE approved lit. The detail of how qualification are included in the meaure are et out on page 9-12 of thi document. The Attainment 8 and Progre 8 calculation are decribed on page 13-19. A Progre 8 core will be calculated for each pupil by comparing their achievement their Attainment 8 core with the average Attainment 8 core of all pupil nationally who had a imilar tarting point (or prior attainment ), calculated uing aement reult from the end of primary chool. The greater the Progre 8 core, the greater the 5
progre made by the pupil compared to the average of pupil with imilar prior attainment. More information about the reult ued to calculate prior attainment i included on page 16-17. A chool Progre 8 core will be calculated a the average of it pupil Progre 8 core. It will give an indication of whether, a a group, pupil in the chool made above or below average progre compared to imilar pupil in other chool. Attainment 8 and Progre 8 core have been publihed in the 2015 performance table for chool that have adopted the new performance meaure a year early. We have provided chool that have not opted in early with Attainment 8 and Progre 8 data baed on 2015 reult to help them plan for the implementation of Progre 8 in 2016. We are not publihing thi information for chool that have not opted in early a it reflect curriculum deciion that chool made before Progre 8 wa announced and we do not want chool to be judged on a meaure which they were not aware of when pupil tarted their coure. Expiry or review date Thi guide will next be reviewed before March 2017. It combine and update the previouly publihed document on Progre 8: Progre 8 chool performance meaure: Information for chool leader and governing bodie of maintained chool, academie and free chool Progre 8 meaure in 2016: Technical guide for maintained econdary chool, academie, free chool and FE college with 14 to 16 proviion Who i thi guide for? Thi guide i for: School leader, chool taff and governing bodie in all maintained chool, including pecial chool, academie and free chool Local authoritie 6
Secondary chool performance meaure From 2016, the headline indicator of chool performance determining the floor tandard will be Progre 8. What will be publihed in the performance table and RAISEonline from 2016 The headline meaure which will appear in the performance table will be: Progre acro 8 qualification Attainment acro the ame 8 qualification Percentage of pupil achieving the threhold in Englih and mathematic (currently a C grade, grade 5 when new GCSE in Englih and mathematic are firt reported in performance table in 2017) Percentage of pupil achieving the Englih Baccalaureate We are currently conulting on the addition of a fifth headline meaure to how the percentage of pupil entered for the Englih Baccalaureate. The conultation document can be found here and cloe on 29 January 2016. We alo plan to introduce a headline meaure to how the percentage of pupil who went on to utained education, employment or training during the year after they finihed their key tage 4 qualification. We currently publih education detination information in the performance table and all detination information a experimental tatitic. We will implement thi headline meaure once we are ure the tatitic are robut. Further detail about what will be publihed in the performance table are detailed in the Statement of Intent publihed each year on the DfE School and college performance table webite. For the chool that opted in a year early in 2015 the new headline meaure will be publihed in the performance table and in RAISEonline alongide current performance meaure information. The expected progre meaure The current expected progre meaure will no longer appear in performance table from 2016. The ytem of level that underpin thi meaure ha been removed, and o thi meaure i being phaed out. 7
Floor tandard The floor tandard for a chool i the minimum tandard for pupil achievement and/or progre that the Government expect chool to meet. Floor tandard do not apply to pecial chool, independent chool, pupil referral unit, alternative proviion or hopital chool. School will be excluded from a Progre 8 floor tandard in a particular year where they have fewer than 6 pupil at the end of key tage 4, or where le than 50% of pupil have key tage 2 aement that can be ued a prior attainment in the calculation of Progre 8. In 2016 (or 2015 for thoe chool that choe to opt in a year early), a chool will be below the floor tandard if it Progre 8 core i below -0.5, and the upper band of the 95% confidence interval i below zero. If a chool performance fall below thi floor tandard, then the chool may come under crutiny through inpection. Confidence interval are explained in more detail on page 18-19 and in Annex D. School in which pupil make on average one grade more progre than the national average (a Progre 8 core of +1.0 or above) will be exempt from routine inpection by Ofted in the calendar year following the publication of the final performance table. 8
Calculating Attainment 8 and Progre 8 Qualification included in the meaure Progre 8 i baed on a calculation of pupil performance acro 8 qualification, called Attainment 8. Thee qualification are: 1. A double weighted mathematic element that will contain the point core of the pupil Englih Baccalaureate (EBacc) mathematic qualification. 2. An Englih element baed on the highet point core in a pupil EBacc Englih language or Englih literature qualification. Thi will be double weighted provided a pupil ha taken both qualification. In 2016 an Englih (combined) qualification can be included and double weighted. 3. An element which can include the three highet point core from any of the EBacc qualification in cience ubject, computer cience, hitory, geography, and language. For more information ee the lit of qualification that count in the EBacc. The qualification can count in any combination and there i no requirement to take qualification in each of the pillar of the EBacc. 4. The remaining element contain the three highet point core in any three other ubject, including Englih language or literature (if not counted in the Englih lot), further GCSE qualification (including EBacc ubject) or any other non-gcse qualification on the DfE approved lit. For more information ee the lit of qualification that will be included in the 2016 key tage 4 performance table, 2017 key tage 4 performance table, and the 2018 key tage 4 performance table. If a pupil ha not taken the maximum number of qualification that count in each group then they will receive a point core of zero where a lot i empty. Mathematic qualification Thi element of Progre 8 i double weighted. Only mathematic qualification which alo count toward the EBacc can count in the mathematic lot. From 2017 only the new reformed GCSE in mathematic or AS level in mathematic or further mathematic will count toward the EBacc and in the mathematic lot of Progre 8. If a pupil take the mathematic linked pair GCSE (Method in Mathematic and Application of Mathematic) the two reult will be added together for the mathematic lot in Progre 8. Thee qualification will count in the performance table for the lat time in 2016. 9
Where a pupil ha taken more than one EBacc mathematic qualification (except for the mathematic linked pair GCSE), qualification which are not ued in the mathematic lot will not count elewhere in Progre 8 1. Approved mathematical type qualification that do not count toward the EBacc, e.g. GCSE tatitic, will be counted in a lot in the open element of Progre 8 regardle of whether or not a pupil ha alo taken an EBacc mathematic qualification. Level 3 Free Standing Mathematic Qualification will only count in a lot in the open element, and will only count if a pupil ha not taken an EBacc mathematic qualification. Englih qualification If a tudent it both Englih language and Englih literature, the higher grade i doubleweighted in the Englih lot. The lower grade can count in a lot in the open element of ubject (not in the EBacc element). The combined Englih language and literature qualification will be available for the lat time in 2016 and will be double-weighted in the Progre 8 meaure. If only GCSE Englih literature or Englih language i taken then thi qualification will count in the Englih lot, but will not be double-weighted. From 2017 only the new reformed GCSE in Englih language and Englih literature, AS Englih language, AS Englih literature and AS Englih language and literature will count toward the EBacc and in the Englih lot of Progre 8. An explanation of how Englih count toward other headline performance table meaure i provided at Annex E. Qualification in the Englih Baccalaureate (EBacc) ubject Only qualification that count toward the EBacc meaure can be included in the Progre 8 lot reerved for EBacc qualification. Mathematic cannot be included in the EBacc element. Englih literature and Englih language cannot be included in the EBacc element. The bet of thee qualification will count in the Englih lot, and the other can count in the open element. There are no other tipulation about the type of EBacc ubject which can count in the three lot of the EBacc element. Any combination of EBacc ubject can be ued to fill thee lot, including for example: 1 Firt entry and dicounting rule a et out on page 13 till apply 10
Biology, Chemitry, French; or Spanih, French, German; or Hitory, Geography, Spanih. Science qualification All tudent have to tudy ome cience up to the age of 16. The key tage 4 cience curriculum i compulory in maintained chool, and academie are required to provide a broad and balanced curriculum, including Englih, mathematic and cience, up to the age of 16. In 2016 and 2017, core and additional cience GCSE will take up one lot each in the Progre 8 meaure. Core cience GCSE alone will take up one lot a pupil doe not have to take additional cience for core cience to count in Progre 8. Separate GCSE in biology, chemitry, phyic and computer cience each take up one lot, and can count in Progre 8 in any combination. The double cience level 1/level 2 certificate that are offered by ome awarding organiation can take up two lot where thi repreent the highet relevant grade achieved (provided they are recognied for incluion in performance table). Depending on the grade achieved by the pupil in other qualification, it may only be neceary to fill one lot. All thee qualification can count in the EBacc lot in the meaure. Change to cience GCSE New cience GCSE will be available for teaching from September 2016, with the firt examination in ummer 2018. There will be ingle cience GCSE (biology, chemitry, phyic and computer cience) and a combined cience (double award). GCSE Single cience GCSE in biology, chemitry, phyic and computer cience will each take up one lot, and can count in Progre 8 in any combination. The combined cience (double award) can take up two lot where thi repreent the highet relevant grade achieved. Qualification in the open element Up to three GCSE qualification (including EBacc ubject not ued to fill the lot in the EBacc element) and/or non-gcse qualification from the approved lit for the year in quetion can count toward the three lot in the open element in the Progre 8 meaure. From 2017, approved non-gcse qualification are thoe that develop technical and practical kill not uually acquired through general education and are categoried a Technical Award. Level 3 qualification AS level will count in the appropriate element of the Progre 8 meaure for their 11
ubject (for example, mathematic AS-level will count in the mathematic lot, a French AS-level in the EBacc group, and an Art AS-level in the open element). If a GCSE in the ame ubject ha been taken the AS-level will alway count in Progre 8 and the GCSE will not count, even if the AS ha a lower point core than the GCSE. AS-level at grade A and B will core higher point in Progre 8 than an A* at GCSE. Level 3 qualification not included in the EBacc lit can only count in an open lot. Thi include Free Standing Mathematic qualification and Aet Language Ladder qualification. Free Standing Mathematic Qualification will only count in an open lot if a pupil ha not taken an EBacc mathematic qualification. Aet Language Ladder qualification will only count in an open lot if the pupil ha not taken a GCSE in the ame language. One graded muic qualification can count in the open element of Progre 8, and can count alongide GCSE muic. Point core The point core cale for performance table meaure in 2016 will change from the current 16-58 cale to a 1-8 point cale, where 1 i equivalent to a grade G GCSE and an increae in one point repreent an increae of one GCSE grade up to 8, which i equivalent to an A* GCSE. Different grade in non-gcse qualification will alo be given a core on thi cale. In 2017, reformed GCSE qualification in Englih and mathematic will be included for the firt time in the Progre 8 meaure. Further reformed GCSE will be introduced in 2018 and 2019. Thee qualification will have a new grading cale that ue the number 1 to 9 to identify level of performance (a will other reformed GCSE once they are introduced over the following two year). Point will be allocated to the new GCSE on a 1-9 point cale correponding to the new 1 to 9 grade, e.g. a grade 9 will get 9 point in the performance meaure. During thi tranition period where a combination of reformed and old tyle GCSE can count toward performance meaure, point core from old tyle GCSE will be mapped onto the 1-9 cale (ee Annex A) and the Progre 8 meaure calculated on thi bai. The point core for different type of qualification in 2016, 2017, and 2018 can be found in Annex A. When a reformed GCSE i introduced in the performance table, an early entry to the unreformed GCSE in the ame ubject will not count in the performance table. 12
Dicounting, pathway and firt entry rule Dicounting enure that, where a pupil ha taken two or more qualification with a ignificant overlap in content, the performance table only give credit once for teaching a ingle coure of tudy. Rule for firt entry in a particular ubject will till apply under Progre 8, a will rule for pathway in Englih, mathematic and cience qualification. Guidance on dicounting and pathway rule can be found in the RAISEonline document library. Calculating Attainment 8 Worked Example A Table 1 et out how the Attainment 8 core would be calculated for a particular pupil, Gillian. Table 1: Key tage 4 reult for Gillian ID Qualification Grade Point Included in the meaure Element Doubled? Total point Qa1 Qa2 Qa3 Qa4 GCSE mathematic GCSE Englih language GCSE Englih literature GCSE additional cience A 7 Math 14 A* 8 Englih 16 B 6 Other 6 B 6 EBacc 6 Qa5 GCSE art C 5 Other 5 Qa6 GCSE core cience A 7 EBacc 7 Qa7 GCSE French A* 8 Qa8 AS Level French C 7 EBacc 7 Qa9 GCSE Spanih B 6 Other 6 Qa10 GCSE religiou tudie D 4 13
Referring to the ID of qualification above, the following illutrate the calculation of the Attainment 8 core for Gillian: Attainment 8 core = (Qa1 + Qa1) + (Qa2 + Qa2 a taken Englih literature) + Qa4 + Qa6 + Qa8 + Qa3 + Qa5 + Qa9 = (7 + 7) + (8 +8) + 6 + 7 + 7 + 6 +5 +6 = 67 Dividing the Attainment 8 core by 10 give a pupil average grade. In thi cae it i 6.7, between GCSE grade A and B. Worked Example B Table 2 et out how the Attainment core would be calculated for another pupil, Hardip. Table 2: Key tage 4 reult for Hardip ID Qualification Grade Point Included in the meaure Element Doubled? Total point Qb1 GCSE Mathematic D 4 Math 8 Qb2 GCSE Englih Language C 5 Englih 5 Qb3 GCSE core cience C 5 EBacc 5 Qb4 Qb5 Qb6 Qb7 BTEC Firt Award in Hopitality BTEC Firt Award in Sport Cambridge National Certificate in Buine and Enterprie NCFE Certificate in Engineering Studie Merit 6 Other 6 Pa 5 Other 5 Pa 5 Other 5 Pa 5 14
Referring to the ID of qualification above, the following illutrate the calculation of the Attainment 8 core for Hardip: Qb1 =4 EMPTY =0 Qb1 =4 Qb2 =5 Qb3 =5 EMPTY =0 EMPTY =0 Qb4 =6 Qb5 =5 Qb6 =5 Mathematic Englih EBacc qualification Other qualification Attainment 8 core = (Qb1 + Qb1) + (Qb2 + 0) + Qb3 + 0 + 0 + Qb4 + Qb5 + Qb6 = (4 + 4) + (5 +0) + 5 + 0 + 0 + 6 +5 +5 = 34 Dividing the Attainment 8 core by 10 give a pupil average grade. In thi cae it i 3.4, between GCSE grade D and E. Hardip ha not taken Englih literature, o hi core for Englih language i not doubled. Furthermore, he ha taken only one EBacc ubject, o he core zero for two of the three EBacc lot. Only three of hi four non-gcse qualification are counted. 15
Calculating Progre 8 Calculating a pupil Progre 8 core Progre 8 core will be calculated for pupil for the ole purpoe of calculating the chool Progre 8 core. A pupil Progre 8 core i defined a their Attainment 8 core, minu their etimated Attainment 8 core. The etimated Attainment 8 core i the average Attainment 8 core of all pupil nationally with the ame prior attainment at key tage 2 (KS2). 2015 attainment etimate are hown in Annex B. For 2016, a pupil prior attainment i defined a the average of their KS2 Englih and mathematic reult, in fine graded level. The input for the prior attainment calculation for 2015 to 2018 i hown in Annex C. Example of fine level calculation If for example a pupil achieved KS2 Englih and mathematic tet mark of 77 and 74 repectively, thi would be converted to a KS2 fine level a depicted by the diagram on the following page. Tet mark are converted to fine grade by the following formula: Baic level + actual tet mark bottom of level threhold top of level threhold bottom of level threhold+1 where the level and level threhold are determined by the mark. Fine grade i then rounded to 2 decimal place and multiplied by 6 to calculate fine point. Once the KS2 Englih and mathematic mark have been converted to fine point an average of the two i taken to provide an overall point core. Thi i then divided by 6 and rounded to 1 decimal place to obtain the fine level a ued in Progre 8 calculation. 16
Worked Example A - continued A we aw, Gillian ha an Attainment 8 core of 67. Her key tage 2 fine point core were 31.62 and 29.10 in Englih and mathematic, an average of 30.36, which divided by 6 give 5.1. The national average Attainment 8 core for pupil with Gillian key tage 2 reult i 59.32 in that year. Gillian Progre 8 core i the difference between her actual Attainment 8 core and the etimated Attainment 8 core, divided by 10 that i, 67-59.32 = +7.68/10 = 0.77. Thi mean that Gillian ha achieved an average of over three quarter of a grade better per ubject than other pupil with the ame prior attainment. 17
Calculating a chool Progre 8 core The chool Progre 8 core i the mean average of it pupil Progre 8 core. Worked Example A continued Let u then ay that Gillian i one of 142 pupil in her chool key tage 4 cohort, who gain a range of Progre 8 core: Pupil # Pupil name P8 core 1 Gillian +0.77 2 Linday -0.20 142 Hardip +1.10 Sum +36.50 So the chool Progre 8 core i calculated a 36.50/142= 0.26 Interpreting Progre 8 core A chool Progre 8 core i calculated a the average of it pupil Progre 8 core. For all maintream pupil nationally, the average Progre 8 core will be zero. When including pupil at pecial chool the national average will not be zero a Progre 8 core for pecial chool are calculated uing Attainment 8 etimate baed upon maintream pupil. School core hould be interpreted alongide their aociated confidence interval. If the lower bound of the chool confidence interval i greater than zero, it can be interpreted a meaning that the chool ha achieved greater than average progre compared to pupil nationally, and vice vera if the upper bound i negative. See Annex D for further detail on interpreting chool core and their aociated confidence interval. 18
Confidence interval Progre 8 reult are calculated for a chool baed on a pecific cohort of pupil. A chool may have been jut a effective but have performed differently with a different et of pupil. Similarly ome pupil may be more likely to achieve high or low grade independently of which chool they attend. To account for thi natural uncertainty 95% confidence interval around Progre 8 core are provided a a proxy for the range of core within which each chool underlying performance meaure can be confidently aid to lie. The reult of chool with a mall cohort tend to have wider confidence interval; thi reflect the fact that the performance of a mall number of pupil taking their key tage 4 exam can have a diproportionate effect on the chool overall reult. Both the Progre 8 core and the confidence interval for a chool hould be taken into account when comparing with other chool, pupil group or national average. Information about how confidence interval will be calculated i decribed in Annex D. Impact of the number of qualification taken on a pupil Progre 8 core The number of qualification each pupil hould enter remain a profeional judgement led by what bet meet the need of an individual. The Progre 8 core for each pupil will alway be determined by dividing the point total by 10 (the eight qualification with Englih and mathematic both double-weighted), regardle of how many qualification the pupil it. Thi approach upport the policy aim to encourage chool to offer a broad and balanced curriculum with an academic core. It may benefit ome le able pupil to work toward good grade (and hence core more point) in fewer ubject, with the emphai on doing well in Englih and mathematic, rather than to take more ubject but achieve lower grade overall. Meaurement of the progre of pupil with no key tage 2 tet reult Pupil working below the level of the tet When calculating the baeline for each pupil Progre 8 core, we will ue key tage 2 teacher aement in cae where pupil have been unable to acce the end of key tage 2 tet. Thi include taking account of teacher aement at Level 1 and 2. Page 12 of A technical guide to 2015 key tage 2 to key tage 4 value added meaure 19
how how we currently award point to different pupil in value added performance meaure, and we plan to continue with a imilar approach. Pupil without a tet core in Englih, mathematic or both Certain pupil without a tet core in one or both of Englih and mathematic, can have their teacher aement ued 2. If a pupil ha aement information for one ubject only, thi ubject will be ued a the baeline. Pupil who have no key tage 2 aement There will be ome pupil (thoe arriving at econdary chool from the independent ector or abroad) who have no key tage 2 reult to ue a the baeline for the Progre 8 meaure. Thee pupil core will not be included in the Progre 8 meaure (and the pupil will not be included in the denominator when calculating the average of the progre core for the chool). However, thee pupil will be included in the attainment meaure for the chool, unle they have arrived from a non-englih peaking country in year 10 or year 11 and the chool requet for their reult to be removed. We alo expect the chool to be able to how to Ofted, parent and other the progre thee pupil have made through econdary chool. The chool can do thi by providing information from robut aement of their own when the pupil enter the chool, and then looking at the pupil progre to GCSE. Etimated grade The minimum grade each pupil require to achieve a poitive Progre 8 core (alo known a their etimated grade ) will not be known in advance. Thi i becaue each pupil reult are compared to other pupil with the ame prior attainment within the ame cohort. Care hould be taken when uing a previou year attainment etimate a a guide to potential future Progre 8 reult. Thi i becaue change to national ubject entry pattern and performance will caue thee etimate to change in future year. Many chool will change their curriculum offer in repone to the Progre 8 meaure, o any modelling baed on current national reult could be mileading. However, there are everal ource of information that hould help chool to plan their teaching for individual pupil: 2 For 2015 only, thi will include pupil in chool that did not run key tage 2 tet in 2010. Where more than 50% of pupil did not have key tage 2 tet reult and their teacher aement were ued intead to calculate prior attainment, thi will be indicated in publihed data. 20
Tranition matrice hould help chool to make prediction for pupil in individual ubject. Tranition matrice baed on 2015 reult are available on RAISEonline. For a range of qualification, and for each key tage 2 (KS2) ublevel, they how the number and percentage of pupil which went onto achieve each grade. Thi give an indication of the average progre made by pupil in individual ubject (although chool hould be aware that change in performance may alter thi picture by 2016). We have provided chool with their own Attainment 8 and Progre 8 core baed on 2015 exam reult, along with information on attainment and progre for the four element of the meaure. Thi information will not be ued for accountability purpoe or included in performance table unle the chool ha opted in, but hould help chool to conider their curriculum and teaching in light of the accountability reform. Pupil reaching their etimated grade Unlike in the expected progre meaure, the Progre 8 meaure doe not give particular credit to a chool for helping a pupil reach hi or her etimated grade. School get credit for each increae in grade a pupil achieve, regardle of how thi grade relate to their etimated grade. For example, the Progre 8 core can improve equally if a pupil working well below their etimated grade move up one grade, or if another pupil move up one grade to achieve their etimated grade. Setting etimated grade in advance We had propoed to move to a ytem in 2019 in which chool are informed three year in advance about the reult each pupil will require to achieve a poitive Progre 8 core. Following further analyi of the impact of qualification, curriculum and accountability reform, we no longer plan to move to thi ytem in 2019 a we cannot be certain that it will not introduce unfairne in how etimated grade are et for different prior attainment group. We will, however, continue to review the poibility of moving to thi approach at a later date. 21
Annex A New point core cale for 2016 (and chool opting in early in 2015), 2017, and 2018 Thi annex explain the point core cale that will be ued in 2016, 2017, and 2018 performance table. The 2016 point core cale i baed on the point currently awarded for each qualification but core will change to a 1-8 cale. For all level 1 and level 2 qualification, thi can be calculated uing thi formula: ccccccc ppppp GGGG eeeeeeeeee 10 2016 ppppp = 6 2016 point will alo be ued for chool that opted in early in 2015. In 2017, new GCSE qualification in Englih and mathematic, graded 1-9, will be included in performance table, with other to follow in 2018 and 2019. Point will be allocated to the new GCSE on a 1-9 point cale correponding to the new 1 to 9 grade, e.g. a grade 9 will get 9 point in the performance meaure. To minimize change, unreformed GCSE and all other qualification will be mapped onto the 1-9 cale from 2017, rather than mapping new GCSE onto the 1-8 cale and moving to 1-9 when unreformed GCSE are no longer available. We have allocated performance table point to unreformed GCSE in 2017 and 2018 in line with Ofqual deciion on etting tandard for new GCSE. In September 2014, Ofqual confirmed that: The bottom of grade 1 will be aligned with the bottom of grade G. Broadly the ame proportion of tudent will achieve a grade 4 and above a currently achieve a grade C and above. Broadly the ame proportion of tudent will achieve a grade 7 and above a achieve an A and above. We have reflected thi in performance table point o that the ame point are awarded to a grade G and a grade 1; a grade C and a grade 4; and a grade A and a grade 7. Point for other grade have been allocated between thee anchor point. Thi i the fairet way of reflecting achievement of pupil working at broadly the ame level during thi tranitional period. From 2019, all GCSE will have been reformed and will be graded 1-9, with point awarded on a linear 1-9 cale. The outcome of Ofqual conultation on etting grade tandard for 2017 GCSE qualification can be found here: http://www.gov.uk/government/new/etting-tandard-for-new-gce-in-2017 22
The table on the following page contain the 2016, 2017, and 2018 performance table point for a level and grade tructure combination. It i important to note that the key factor in the grade tructure i the number of grade not the name of grade. For example, a pa/merit/ditinction/ditinction* and a grade C/ grade B/ grade A/ grade A* tructure both have four grade. Table A.1 New point core cale for unreformed GCSE GCSE grade 2016 Point 2017 and 2018 Point G 1.00 1.00 F 2.00 1.50 E 3.00 2.00 D 4.00 3.00 C 5.00 4.00 B 6.00 5.50 A 7.00 7.00 A* 8.00 8.50 23
Table A.2 New point core cale for level 1 qualification Level 1 grade tructure Example grade 2016 Point 2017 and 2018 Point Pa only Pa 2.50 1.75 Pa 1.50 1.25 3 grade cheme 4 grade cheme Merit 3.00 2.00 Ditinction 4.00 3.00 G 1.00 1.00 F 2.00 1.50 E 3.00 2.00 D 4.00 3.00 E 1.00 1.00 D 1.75 1.38 5 grade cheme C 2.50 1.75 B 3.25 2.25 A 4.00 3.00 GG 1.00 1.00 FG 1.50 1.25 FF 2.00 1.50 7 grade cheme EF 2.50 1.75 EE 3.00 2.00 DE 3.50 2.50 DD 4.00 3.00 24
Table A.3 New point core cale for level 2 qualification Level 2 grade tructure Example grade 2016 Point 2017 and 2018 Point Pa only Pa 6.00 5.50 3 grade cheme 4 grade cheme 5 grade cheme 7 grade cheme 8 grade cheme Pa 5.00 4.00 Merit 6.50 6.25 Ditinction 7.50 7.75 C 5.00 4.00 B 6.00 5.50 A 7.00 7.00 A* 8.00 8.50 E 5.00 4.00 D 5.50 4.75 C 6.00 5.50 B 6.50 6.25 A 7.00 7.00 Pa Pa 5.00 4.00 Merit Pa 5.50 4.75 Merit Merit 6.00 5.50 Ditinction Merit 6.50 6.25 Ditinction Ditinction Ditinction* Ditinction Ditinction* Ditinction* 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.50 CD 4.50 3.50 CC 5.00 4.00 BC 5.50 4.75 BB 6.00 5.50 AB 6.50 6.25 AA 7.00 7.00 A*A 7.50 7.75 A*A* 8.00 8.50 25
Table A.4 New point core cale for AS level and double AS level AS level grade 2016 Point 2017 and 2018 Point E 4.50 3.50 D 5.75 5.13 C 7.00 7.00 B 8.25 8.88 A 9.50 10.75 Double AS level grade 2016 Point 2017 and 2018 Point EE 4.50 3.50 ED 5.13 4.20 DD 5.75 5.13 DC 6.38 6.07 CC 7.00 7.00 CB 7.63 7.95 BB 8.25 8.88 BA 8.88 9.82 AA 9.50 10.75 Table A.5 New point core cale for graded muic examination Graded muic level Grade 6 Grade 2016 Point 2017 and 2018 Point Pa 7.00 7.00 Merit 8.00 8.50 Ditinction 8.00 8.50 Pa 7.00 7.00 Grade 7 Grade 8 Merit 8.00 8.50 Ditinction 8.00 8.50 Pa 8.00 8.50 Merit 8.00 8.50 Ditinction 8.00 8.50 26
Table A.6 New point core cale for free tanding mathematic qualification Free tanding mathematic qualification grade 2016 Point 2017 and 2018 Point E 2.75 1.88 D 3.50 2.50 C 4.25 3.25 B 5.00 4.00 A 5.75 5.13 Worked example of how to ue thee table Example A - Calculating the 2016 point for a BTEC Firt Award BTEC Firt Award can be both level 1 and level 2 qualification. At level 1, there i a pa only grade tructure, and the 2016 column of Table A.2 give the point of 2.5. Grade Ditinction*/Ditinction/Merit/Pa are at level 2, which make for a 4 grade tructure, and the 2016 column of Table A.3 give the point of between 5 and 8. Table A.7 New 2016 point core cale for BTEC Firt Award BTEC Firt Award grade 2016 Point Level 1 Pa 2.50 Level 2 Pa 5.00 Level 2 Merit 6.00 Level 2 Ditinction 7.00 Level 2 Ditinction* 8.00 Example B - Calculating the 2017 point for an OCR Cambridge National Certificate OCR Cambridge National Certificate can be both level 1 and level 2 qualification. Grade level 1 ditinction/ level 1 merit/ level 1 pa are at level 1, which make for a 3 grade tructure, and the 2017 column of Table A.2 give the point of between 1.25 and 3. 27
Grade level 2 ditinction*/ level 2 ditinction/ level 2 merit/ level 2 pa are at level 2, which make for a 4 grade tructure, and the 2017 column of Table A.3 give the point of between 4 and 8.5. Table A.8 New 2017 point core cale for OCR Cambridge National Certificate OCR Cambridge National Certificate grade 2017 Point Level 1 Pa 1.25 Level 1 Merit 2.00 Level 1 Ditinction 3.00 Level 2 Pa 4.00 Level 2 Merit 5.50 Level 2 Ditinction 7.00 Level 2 Ditinction* 8.50 28
Annex B 2015 Attainment 8 etimate The etimated Attainment 8 core i the average Attainment 8 core of all pupil nationally with the ame prior attainment at key tage 2 (KS2). The following table how the Attainment 8 etimate for each key tage 2 average fine level, baed on the 2015 cohort average. Change to national ubject entry pattern and performance will caue thee etimate to change in future year, a they will be derived from average from later cohort. A uch they hould be treated with caution if extrapolating to cohort beyond 2015. KS2 average fine level (Englih & Math) Table B.1 2015 Attainment 8 etimate for each KS2 fine level 2015 Attainment 8 etimate KS2 average fine level (Englih & Math) 2015 Attainment 8 etimate KS2 average fine level (Englih & Math) 2015 Attainment 8 etimate 1.5 a 13.20 3.7 32.11 4.9 55.03 2.0 b 17.79 3.8 33.63 5.0 56.16 2.5 c 19.39 3.9 35.27 5.1 59.32 2.8 d 20.38 4.0 36.48 5.2 61.51 2.9 21.88 4.1 38.80 5.3 63.92 3.0 23.37 4.2 40.62 5.4 66.31 3.1 23.91 4.3 42.55 5.5 65.67 3.2 24.42 4.4 44.49 5.6 71.61 3.3 26.15 4.5 45.87 5.7 74.18 3.4 27.71 4.6 48.50 5.8 e 76.28 3.5 28.58 4.7 50.71 3.6 30.24 4.8 52.76 a. Pupil with mean KS2 fine grade core of <=1.5 are aigned a KS2 core of 1.5 b. Pupil with mean KS2 fine grade core between 1.6 and 2.0 are aigned a KS2 core of 2.0 c. Pupil with mean KS2 fine grade core between 2.1 and 2.5 are aigned a KS2 core of 2.5 d. Pupil with mean KS2 fine grade core between 2.6 and 2.8 are aigned a KS2 core of 2.8 e. Pupil with mean KS2 fine grade core of >=5.8 are aigned a KS2 core of 5.8 29
Annex C Key tage 2 reult ued to calculate prior attainment From 2017 onward, reading and mathematic tet reult only will be ued in calculating key tage 2 prior attainment fine level for ue in progre 8. For 2016 and for 2015 for chool opting in early to Progre 8, overall Englih and mathematic key tage 2 tet reult will be ued to calculate prior attainment. Thi i ummaried in the table below. KS4 Cohort KS2 Cohort KS2 tet ued in calculating prior attainment fine level band Progre 8 meaure by year 2015 2010 Englih and mathematic 2016 2011 Englih and mathematic 2017 2012 Reading and mathematic 2018 2013 Reading and mathematic NB: Level 6 tet taken by pupil completing key tage 4 in 2017 and beyond will not be ued in the calculation of the fine level ued a prior attainment in Progre 8, a the ue of thee tet varie between chool. 30
Annex D Confidence Interval A 95% confidence interval will be calculated around each chool Progre 8 core, providing a proxy for the range of value within which we are tatitically confident that the true value of the Progre 8 core for the chool lie. The confidence interval, denoted[ LowCI, UppCI ], i given by the formula: where: [ LowCI UppCI ] = [ P8 CI, P8 + CI ],, LowCI UppCI P8 CI i the lower confidence limit for the chool Progre 8 core i the upper confidence limit for the chool Progre 8 core i the chool Progre 8 core i the ize of the confidence interval for the chool Progre 8 core where: CI = 1. 96 N n 1.96 i the critical value for a 95% confidence interval; σ N i the tandard deviation of the Progre 8 core for all eligible pupil nationally; n i the number of eligible pupil that belong to the chool The national average Progre 8 core of all pupil at maintained maintream chool core will be 0. When a chool ha their lower confidence interval limit higher than zero ( LowCI > 0), the chool Progre 8 core i above average and the reult i tatitically ignificant. When a chool ha their upper confidence interval limit lower than zero ( UppCI < 0), the chool Progre 8 core i below average and the reult i tatitically ignificant. In the other cae when the confidence interval traddle zero ( LowCI < 0 < UppCI ), the chool Progre 8 core i likely to be above or below average, and the reult i not tatitically ignificant. 31
SCHOOL A IS ABOVE NATIONAL AVERAGE AND THIS IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT KEY: Upper Confidence Limit School Progre 8 Score Lower Confidence Limit NATIONAL AVERAGE PROGRESS 8 SCORE = 0 SCHOOL B IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM NATIONAL AVERAGE SCHOOL C IS BELOW NATIONAL AVERAGE AND THIS IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT Worked example A continued We can calculate the ize of the confidence interval for the chool Progre 8 core uing CI : N 1.0896 CI = 1. 96 = 1.96 = 1. 96 0. 091 = 0. 18 n 142 We derive the confidence interval for the chool Progre 8 core: = [ + 0.26 0.18, + 0.26 + 0.18] = [ + 0.08, + 0.44] A LowCI > 0, we can ay that the chool Progre 8 core i above the national average Progre 8 core, and ay thi reult i tatitically ignificant. 32
Annex E Englih in the headline performance meaure in 2016, 2017, and 2018 Headline Performance Meaure Progre 8 and Attainment 8 Englih Baccalaureate Englih and math A*-C Englih Requirement If a tudent it both Englih language and Englih literature, the higher grade i double-weighted. The lower grade can count in the open element of thee meaure. The combined Englih language and literature qualification will be available for the lat time in 2016 and will be double-weighted in the Progre 8 and Attainment 8 meaure. If only GCSE Englih literature or Englih language i taken then thi qualification will count, but will not be double-weighted. A pupil mut tudy both Englih Language and Englih Literature, and achieve a C grade or better in at leat one of thee qualification (in 2016, a C in Combined Englih would be ufficient). A pupil would have to achieve a C grade or above in either Englih Literature or Englih Language. There i no requirement to it both (in 2016, a C in Combined Englih would be ufficient). Student hould either enter GCSE Englih or two eparate GCSE in Englih literature and Englih language in 2016. In 2017 the only qualification which will count a Englih in the performance table are the new reformed GCSE (9-1) and AS level. 33
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