Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends July 13, 21 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-972-73 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-97-3 jabbott@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Buybacks & Dividends 3- Buybacks 7 S&P 1/// Divisors Buybacks & Dividends 9 Buybacks & Dividends as % of Operating Earnings 1 July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
Buybacks & Dividends 7 Figure 1. S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars, annualized) 7 -Quarter Sum 3 3 2 2 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 Figure 2. S&P DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, annualized) 3 3 3 -Quarter Sum 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 Page 3 / July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
2 Figure 3. S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars, quarterly) Buybacks & Dividends 2 1 1 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 12 Figure. S&P DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, quarterly) 12 1 1 2 2 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 Page / July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
22 2 1 Figure. S&P DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS (billion dollars, annualized) Buybacks Dividends Buybacks & Dividends Jun 22 2 1 1 S&P Index 1 1 1 12 1 12 1 2 2 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 7 3 2 1 13 12 11 1 9 7 3 Figure. S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars, annualized) S&P FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD (percent) S&P Forward Earnings Yield* (.) Moody s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield (3.2) 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 7 3 2 1 13 12 11 1 9 7 3 * Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P stock price index. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
Buybacks & Dividends 12 1 Figure 7. S&P BUYBACKS & DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, annualized) 12 1 -Q Sum (97) 2 2 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 7 BUYBACKS 7 -Q Sum (9) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 DIVIDENDS 3 3 3 2 2 1 -Q Sum (3) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 -quarter sum. Page / July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
Buybacks Figure. TOTAL GROSS ISSUANCE OF STOCKS MINUS S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars) 2 Total Gross Issuance of Stocks Minus S&P Buybacks (annualized) 2-2 -2 - - - - Corporate Equities: Net Issuance Nonfinancial Corporate Business (-quarter sum) - - -1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 Source: Federal Reserve Board and Standard & Poor s Corporation. -1 Page 7 / July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
9 7 3 2 1 Figure 9. S&P 1 DIVISOR* S&P 1/// Divisors 9 97 9 99 1 2 3 7 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17 1 S&P 1 DIVISOR* (y/y percent change) 9 97 9 99 1 2 3 7 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17 1 2-2 - - 97 92 S&P DIVISOR* S&P DIVISOR* (y/y percent change) 1 7 2 2 77-2 72 9 97 9 99 1 2 3 7 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17 1 9 97 9 99 1 2 3 7 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17 1-3 2 S&P MIDCAP DIVISOR* S&P MIDCAP DIVISOR* (y/y percent change) 1 2 1 - -1 1-1 -2 9 97 9 99 1 2 3 7 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17 1 9 97 9 99 1 2 3 7 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17 1-2 22 2 S&P SMALLCAP DIVISOR* S&P SMALLCAP DIVISOR* (y/y percent change) 1 1 1 1 12 - -1 1 9 97 9 99 1 2 3 7 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17 1 9 97 9 99 1 2 3 7 9 1 11 12 13 1 1 1 17 1-1 -2 * Divisor is used to ensure that changes in shares outstanding, capital actions, and the addition or deletion of stocks to the index do not change the level of the index. Page / July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
12 Figure 1. S&P YIELD FROM BUYBACKS & DIVIDENDS Buybacks & Dividends 12 1 1 Buybacks + Dividends (billion dollars, trailing four-quarter) (97.2) 2 7 3 2 1 Yield (%) Buybacks (3.2) Dividends (2.1) Buybacks + Dividends (.3) 199 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 2 7 3 2 1 2 17 1 Figure 11. S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars, quarterly) 2 17 1 12 12 1 1 7 7 2 2 1. 1. 1.2 1.. Buybacks as a % of S&P Market Cap (.9) 1.2 1.......2. 199 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217.2. Page 9 / July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
1 12 1 2 Buybacks & Dividends as % of Operating Earnings Figure 12. S&P BUYBACKS, DIVIDENDS, & OPERATING EARNINGS (billion dollars, trailing four-quarter) Buybacks (9.) Dividends (3.) Operating Earnings (.9) Buybacks+Dividends (97.) 1 12 1 2 1 1 12 Buybacks+Dividends as percent of Operating Earnings (112.) 12 1 1 7 7 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 1 12 1 Figure 13. S&P EX-ENERGY BUYBACKS, DIVIDENDS, & OPERATING EARNINGS (billion dollars, trailing four-quarter) Buybacks (77.) Operating Earnings (97.) Dividends (37.) Buybacks+Dividends (92.) 1 12 1 2 2 17 1 Buybacks+Dividends as percent of Operating Earnings (11.) Capped at 1% due to extreme values. 17 1 12 12 1 1 7 7 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 Page 1 / July 13, 21 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
Copyright (c) 21. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on www., blog., http://blog. and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www., blog., http://blog. and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@