China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK)

Similar documents
The Global Food Industry Charlie Mills ( )

21 June Details

IENOVA (IENOVA) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.

% 10% % 4% 3.9%

05 April 2016 Asian Daily. we could see another Rmb0.3/cm non-residential gas price cut sometime in 2016.

OHL Mexico (OHLMEX) Cash Needs Before Cash Flow. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.

Credit Suisse Equity Research

Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities. Investment Research & Advisory. Deltec International Group

Asian Daily. 01 December 2011

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.

Emini - Credit Suisse

Economic Outlook: Poland

Cinda International. Hold (Initiation) Target price: HK$1.55. Facing intense competition from Chinese brokers in HK; initiate at Hold

Private drilling fluid technology service leader

E 2013E 2014E

BUY Target: 215p. Strategic impact: cross-selling. Financial impact: good value

Closed-end fund update

Bright Smart (1428 HK)

CIO Flash Chinese equities: what happens next? July 8, 2015

In line performance. Results update 4Q2015. Banks UAE 28 January 2016 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK

The Merchant Securities FTSE 100. Hindsight II Note PRIVATE CLIENT ADVISORY

Kingdee (268 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$3.58. Solidifying leadership in cloud services; maintain Buy but revise TP down to HK$3.

Leading enterprise in domestic TFT liquid crystal material market

SK Networks ( KS)

ASEAN Weekly Wrap. Indonesia fiscal deficit revised higher to 2.35% of GDP. Economic Update

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Sounds like we should forget about move to subscription accounting. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Global Markets Research COMMONWEALTH PROGRAMS. BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO (% of GDP) UNDERLYING BUDGET BALANCE (% of GDP)

BDI BioEnergy Intern Neutral. Activity level in Q3 might not support FY estimates

Quant Picks United Breweries

Khambatta Securities Ltd.

Satisfactory Top-Line; Disappointing Bottom-Line

Ultratech Cement Ltd

Company Overview. Financial Performance

Exhibit 1: Financial summary of First Tractor in 1H12-1H14 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 (% YoY)

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. INR 135

MSCI AUSTRALIA SELECT HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD INDEX

Sundaram Finance. Target price (INR) 452 Momentum in loans sustains, upgrade to Hold

For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, please see page 8. Exhibit 1: Average 3mo/6mo/1yr returns following a federal election

Description and Inclusion Rules of the CSFB High Yield Index

Deutsche Wohnen AG.» German Jour Fixe 1-1 Conference Merrill Lynch. London, 27 April 2010

Company Report. New China Life (1336 HK) Hold Life & Health Insurance Industry 2013E target price: HK$34.30 (from HK$24.

SOHO China (410) Buy Nov 20, Company update. 4 Acquisitions within 6 Months. Samson Man, CFA (852) samson.man@firstshanghai.com.

European Freight Forwarding Index

Deutsche Wohnen AG.» Full Year Results Conference Call, 26 March 2010

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk

AmoreG (002790) BUY ( initiate ) Growth beyond Amorepacific? 2Q13 results met market consensus

Deutsche Global Infrastructure Fund (TOLLX)

Copel. Equity Research. Weak Q1 results. BTG Pactual Global Research. Latin America Electric & Other Utilities Company Note 13 May 2016

SEK ING Sprinter Sverige ING Bank NV (NL) 20 Units Outperformance Bonus Certificates linked to OMX due

Trends and Technology A Capital Markets Perspective

Seeking Alternatives. Senior loans an innovative asset class

DO WE NEED MORE STORAGE IN EUROPE?

20 August Can the dividend

European Freight Forwarding Index

Update on HKEx Equity Derivatives Market. Derivatives Trading Global Markets Division 24 April 2015

DATRON AG. Investor day supports our positive view. Buy (Buy) EUR (12.50 EUR ) BANKHAUS LAMPE // 1 17/09/2015

Analysts and Investors conference call Q results 15 May 2014

HCC BUY. Infrastructure January 29, 2016

Overview of RMB Internationalisation

Walmex. Equity Research. 4Q15 A miss, no signs of operating leverage. BTG Pactual Global Research

Bond markets vote for global recovery

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX, mini MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX FUTURES AND THE ishares MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF

The Ramco Cements. Source: Company Data; PL Research

QE, Credit Markets and Bubbles

Coal India Ltd. Subdued e-auction realization impacted profitability BUY. Nov. 17, 2015

Flexituff International Ltd. (FIL)

INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA ICBC: Your Global Portal to RMB Market. July 2012

Loxley (Loxley TB) Trading Buy. No Surprises. Communications - Telecommunications Target Price: THB10.6 Market Cap: USD540m Price: THB7.

Deutsche Wohnen AG.» Investor Presentation. September 2010

Britannia Industries

Debt to Grow at a Slower Pace Lowering Target Price but Reiterating Buy

Capital preservation strategy update

Tough Quarters Ahead, Downgrade to Reduce

Background information. Changes in the shareholder structure and balance sheet. Contract with Google prolonged for two years

Commodities. Precious metals as an asset class. April What qualifies as an asset class? What makes commodities an asset class?

Longfor (960 HK) Unrated Real Estate Development Industry

Fixed Income Training Seminar Asset Management Experience

Hong Kong. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

THIS DOCUMENT IS IMPORTANT AND REQUIRES YOUR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. IF IN DOUBT, PLEASE SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE.

GAIL (India) Ltd. INR 346

Petrel Energy Ltd. This report is intended for Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited.

Increasing estimates and PT on expectation of solid earnings momentum. Growth momentum and turnaround of insurance business

ESG Fixed Income Indices

SOHO CHINA (410.HK) At the Key Phase of Business Transformation. Neutral (Update) HONG KONG PROPERTY COMPANY UPDATE.

Saipem (SPMI.MI) Update following 3Q. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

CONSIDERATIONS WHEN CONSTRUCTING A FOREIGN PORTFOLIO: AN ANALYSIS OF ADRs VS ORDINARIES

Empresaria (EMR.L) Empressive finish to the year

Schroder International Opportunities Portfolio - Schroder Asian Income (the Fund )

High yield bonds. US senior loans update. begin on page 4.

BDI BioEnergy Internat Buy

Transcription:

Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Consumer Finance (Diversified Financials CN (Asia)) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (12 Jan 15, HK$) 3.82 Target price (HK$) (from 5.50) 5.78¹ Upside/downside (%) 51.3 Mkt cap (HK$ mn) 138,501 (US$ 17,863) Enterprise value (Rmb mn) 709,535 Number of shares (mn) 36,256.69 Free float (%) 27.4 52-week price range 5.43-3.39 ADTO - 6M (US$ mn) 34.4 *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. ¹Target price is for 12 months. Share price performance 8 6 4 Price (LHS) Research Analysts Victor Wang 852 2101 6730 victor.wang@credit-suisse.com Steven Zhu 852 2101 6535 steven.zhu.2@credit-suisse.com Rebased Rel (RHS) 2 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 The price relative chart measures performance against the MSCI CHINA F IDX which closed at 6950. on 09/01/15 On 09/01/15 the spot exchange rate was HK$7.75/US$1 120 100 Performance over 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 3.0 10.7-18.0 Relative (%) -3.0 0.7-29.6 80 60 China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) CATALYST ALERT Time to revisit a laggard performer Reiterate OUTPERFORM rating on attractive valuation. Cinda has underperformed HSCEI by 22% since its listing on 12 December 2013. The stock is also marginalised, given declining trading volume despite a more active stock market. We view the current stock price of HK$3.87 as very attractive; reiterate OUTPERFORM and revise up target price to HK$5.8. Cinda witnessed positive business trends in 2H14, including: (1) declining funding cost due to bond issuance and interest rate cut (good for margin); (2) better property market sales volume (good for asset quality of its restructured distressed assets business, or RDA portfolio); (3) the recovery of coal-related assets (higher value for its debt-equity swap portfolio, or DES business) and (4) higher stock market turnover and valuation (higher licence value and stronger earnings for its brokerage and insurance subsidiaries). 2014 results will be catalyst. We now forecast Rmb12 bn 2014 profit, implying 2H14 earnings to grow 26% HoH or 35% YoY to Rmb6.7 bn. Hence, we expect Cinda share price to perform strongly towards March 2015, when Cinda releases its 2014 full-year number. The key risks of our bullish call include: (1) investors not treating Cinda as a core holding due to its complex business model; and (2) value of some businesses e.g. DES may not get reflected in P&L until Cinda disposes of the underlying assets. We value Cinda at HK$5.8. We continue to like Cinda's long-term investment case. We believe it will benefit structurally from China's economic restructuring, macro de-leveraging and SOE reforms. We modified Cinda's TP from HK$5.5 to HK$5.8 due to slight earnings revision and a higher target P/B for its FS division (financial services). Our TP is based on 1.7x 2015E P/B, valuing its DAM/FIAM/FS divisions at 2.3x/0.6x/1.1x. Financial and valuation metrics Year 6/14A 6/15E 6/16E 6/17E Revenue (Rmb mn) EBITDA (Rmb mn) 16,872.0 23,010.1 31,473.5 37,764.4 EBIT (Rmb mn) 16,402.7 22,513.4 30,947.1 37,205.6 Net profit (Rmb mn) 12,037.6 16,564.3 22,808.5 27,445.3 EPS (CS adj.) (Rmb) 0.34 0.47 0.64 0.77 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. 2.2-1.3-2.1 Consensus EPS (Rmb) n.a. 0.41 0.49 EPS growth (%) 14.4 37.6 37.7 20.3 P/E (x) 9.0 6.5 4.7 3.9 Dividend yield (%) 2.9 4.0 5.6 6.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 36.8 30.8 25.3 25.2 P/B (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 ROE (%) 15.0 18.2 21.6 22.1 Net debt/equity (%) 545.9 568.4 563.4 596.8 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access

Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 12 January 2015 Focus charts and table Figure 1: Cinda underperformed major indices and Big 4 banks since listing 130% 110% 90% 70% Figure 2: Trading volume of Cinda also dropped significantly (5-day moving average, standardised) 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% Cinda.HSI.HSCEI ICBC CCB ABC Source: WIND, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: Cinda share price had nil performance since 1H14, though property index recovered c.25% since then 125% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Source: WIND, CS Asia property team Figure 5: Majority of Cinda's IBL is bank borrowing, which will benefit from PBOC benchmark rate cuts; active bond issuance also helped bring down funding cost 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CS China Property Index 6% 13% 72% 74% % of total IBL, 2013 % of total IBL, 1H14 Cinda share price Due to MOF & other A/P Bond issued Interbank fundings A/P to brokerage clients Bank loans Borrowings from PBOC Note: IBL=interest bearing liability. Source: Corporate data Note: Cinda trading data exclude the 1 st week trading since IPO. Source: WIND, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: We estimate total value of Cinda's top 20 listed DES portfolios rose by Rmb4.4 bn to Rmb11.3 bn Mkt value (Rmb m) Mkt value (Rmb m) Code 2013 1H14 2014 Code 2013 1H14 2014 000792 1,934 1,743 2,509 601268 72 67 67 601600 2,421 2,244 4,216 601328 120 121 188 600403 683 507 578 600103 123 146 195 000937 484 380 639 600997 111 87 143 600691 226 159 199 600068 110 137 344 600096 230 182 313 601608 67 63 141 000878 271 237 445 600756 50 94 77 600121 229 186 278 200030 3 3 3 600395 173 152 284 600397 27 21 34 601008 176 239 443 600536 101 115 176 Source: WIND, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6: We expect Cinda to further utilise capital base, resulting in declining CAR, rising asset/equity multiplier and higher revenue 6.5x 6.0x 5.5x 5.0x 4.5x 4.0x Cinda Big 4 Banks.HSI.HSCEI 2012 1H13 2013 1H14 2014E 2015E 2016E Total assets/equity (LHS) Note: CBRC minimum CAR requirement for Cinda is 12.5%. Source: Corporate data, Credit Suisse estimates CAR (parent co., RHS) 25% 22% 19% 16% 13% 10% China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 2

Reiterate OP rating and lift target price to HK$5.8 Since its 1H14 results announcement on 28 August 2014, Cinda posted almost nil stock performance, which was significantly lower than the market and major China banks (HSCEI rose 11% since then, while Big 4 China banks share price increased by 11-23%). We believe investors should revisit this stock now. We reiterate OUTPERFORM and revise up target price to HK$5.8 from HK$5.5. We understand investors disliked Cinda's 1H14 results; in particular, they were concerned about its strong RDA growth, especially property industry-related lending, as well as its DES portfolio, given high exposure to the coal industry. We argue that not only was Cinda a laggard performer, the market, more importantly, also ignored many positive business trends for this leading asset management company; we discuss them below. Positive business trends in 2H14 We believe Cinda's operation began to improve in 2H14. Though some positive business trends will not translate into stronger P&L immediately, we are confident investors will soon understand such a change, and this will likely lead to a re-rating of the stock. Declining funding cost Thanks to its H-share IPO and strong profitability, Cinda had 18.4% CAR by 1H14. Given that its capital position is meaningfully higher than CBRC's 12.5% minimum requirement, we believe Cinda will continue its strong asset expansion in the next 18 months to grow traditional and restructured distressed asset businesses. Over 70% of Cinda's interests-bearing liabilities (IBL) are bank loans. Given its strong earnings and SOE status, Cinda tends to get some discount for bank loan pricing. The recent PBOC benchmark rates cut in November 2014 will surely help the company further reduce funding cost. Also, in May 2014, Cinda issued Rmb20 bn in RMB financial bonds and US$1.5 bn senior notes. We believe the proceeds will be gradually employed during 3Q14, contributing to a lower funding cost and more stable funding structure. We currently forecast Cinda to grow its IBL by c.20% in 2015 to Rmb419 bn, and forecast the blended funding cost to be 4.38%. If the actual funding cost will be 30 bp cheaper, Cinda can save around Rmb1.25 bn interest expense, or potentially lift 2015E earnings by 8%. Figure 7: Cinda issued both RMB and USD debts during 2Q14 Bond name Issuance date Amount Duration Coupon rate (annualised) Rmb Financial Bond 5/27/2014 Rmb10 bn 3Y 5.20% 5/27/2014 Rmb10 bn 5Y 5.35% USD Guaranteed Senior Notes 5/14/2014 US$1 bn 5Y 4.00% Source: WIND 5/14/2014 US$0.5 bn 10Y 5.63% Better property market sales volume A stabilising property market should also help Cinda show some valuation recovery. We believe the concern over Cinda's RDA business was a key reason for its underperformance. Most of Cinda's RDA business is related to the property industry via RDA business, Cinda offers short-term loans to property developers. During 1H14, Cinda acquired the Rmb78-bn RDA portfolio, around 10x the size of its traditional distressed asset business (TDA, or conventional NPL restructuring business). CS property team data shows that the primary GFA sold during 2H14 meaningfully recovered relative to 1H. Further, PBOC/CBRC also relaxed lending criteria to both China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 3

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 12 January 2015 residential mortgage and property development loans. All these data points and new policies and measures led to improvement in developer loan quality, in our view. Figure 8: 2H property transaction volume recovered meaningfully 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Source: Credit Suisse estimates Weekly primary GFA sales in top-10 cities, in mn sqm 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Weekly primary GFA sales in top-10 cities, in mn sqm) Recovery of coal-related assets value Cinda's DES portfolio had Rmb41.7 bn carrying value by 1H14. Of this, the value of listed equity was Rmb7,647 mn, or 18% of total. We estimate the value of top 20 listed equity portfolio accounted for 90% of total listed equity's market value by 1H14. Due to a more active A-share market, we estimate the value of these 20 stocks will be worth Rmb11.3 bn by 2014, or Rmb4.4 bn more during 2H14. Furthermore, a significant portion of the unlisted DES portfolio was related to the coal industry, while the market price of listed coal companies recovered strongly during 2H14. This should also help lift the market value of Cinda's DES portfolio. We want to highlight that for the unlisted DES portfolio, Cinda is unlikely to report the value increase in 2014 annual reports due to conservative accounting principles. Only when Cinda disposes of this portion, the related profit i.e. the difference between transaction price and the sum of acquisition cost and related fees and taxes will materialise. Nevertheless, if Cinda asked third party appraisal firms to review the DES portfolio (like it did in 2014), this valuation increase will be disclosed to investors. China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 4

Figure 9: Listed DES portfolio saw substantial value recovery; we suspect similar trend for unlisted DES portfolio Listed DES company name Ticker 2013 1H14 2014 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd 000792.SZ 1,934 1,743 2,509 Aluminum Corporation of China 601600.SS 2,421 2,244 4,216 Henan Dayou Energy 600403.SS 683 507 578 Jizhong Energy Resources 000937.SZ 484 380 639 Yangmei Chemical 600691.SS 226 159 199 Yunan Yuntianhua 600096.SS 230 182 313 Yunnan Copper 000878.SZ 271 237 445 Zhengzhou Coal Industry & Electric Power 600121.SS 229 186 278 Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal 600395.SS 173 152 284 Jiangsu Lianyungang Port 601008.SS 176 239 443 Erzhong Group (Deyang) Heavy Industries 601268.SS 72 67 67 Bank of Communications 601328.SS 120 121 188 Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry 600103.SS 123 146 195 Kailuan Energy Chemical 600997.SS 111 87 143 China Gezhouba Group 600068.SS 110 137 344 CITIC Heavy Industries 601608.SS 67 63 141 Shandong Ispur Software 600756.SS 50 94 77 FAWER Automotive Parts 200030.SZ 3 3 3 Anyuan Coal Industry Group 600397.SS 27 21 34 China National Software & Service 600536.SS 101 115 176 Total 7,612 6,882 11,272 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse researches (4) higher stock market turnover and valuation Last, a few of Cinda's financial subsidiaries saw strong 2H14 business volume growth. These licenses include brokerage (Cinda Securities), private equity, as well as life insurance business (Happy Life). Our forecasts point to strong 2013-16 profit CAGR We currently forecast Rmb12.1 bn 2014E profit for Cinda, representing 33% YoY growth. However, from a ROA perspective, we expect Cinda to generate 2.7% 2014E ROA, slightly below the 2013 level. In other words, the strong earnings growth is more likely the result of strong B/S expansion post capital-raising and expanding its business to new areas like RDA. Meanwhile, the overall asset yield did not improve much. We expect Cinda to realise 37%/38% earnings growth in 2015/16, helped by continuous B/S expansion, but also ROA increase (from 2.7% in 2014 to 3.0% in 2015 and later 3.6% in 2016). We believe Cinda will finally grow its TDA business faster starting from 2015, as commercial banks will face further asset quality pressure. China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 5

Figure 10: We forecast 36% earnings CAGR during 2013-16 (Rmb mn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2010-13 Cagr 2014E YoY % 2013-16E cagr Income from distressed assets (receivables) 0 181 3,518 10,144 16,131 22,108 25,846 n.m. 59% 37% Fair value changes on distressed debt assets 5,851 4,463 3,983 4,618 4,825 8,304 11,784-8% 4% 37% Fair value changes on other financial assets 426 41 399 539 449 449 449 8% -17% -6% Investment income 4,835 5,779 6,529 7,044 6,845 8,111 8,945 13% -3% 8% Net insurance premiums earned 4,584 5,701 5,325 5,772 5,861 7,191 8,587 8% 2% 14% Commission and fee income 2,135 1,947 2,226 2,520 3,230 3,920 4,450 6% 28% 21% Revenue from sales of inventories 4,148 3,237 3,924 4,322 5,188 6,018 6,981 1% 20% 17% Interest income 850 1,537 2,493 5,059 6,597 8,221 9,614 81% 30% 24% Net gains on sale of subsidiaries/associates 40 174 2,585 201 211 221 232 71% 5% 5% Other income and other net gains or losses 1,390 1,322 1,456 2,195 2,752 3,111 3,514 16% 25% 17% Total Revenue 24,260 24,382 32,335 42,413 52,090 67,654 80,402 20% 23% 24% Insurance costs -4,434-5,337-4,690-5,019-4,865-5,896-7,127 4% -3% 12% Commission and fee expense -734-805 -900-869 -1,027-1,218-1,349 6% 18% 16% Purchases and changes in inventories -2,655-1,844-2,392-2,720-3,113-3,611-4,189 1% 14% 15% Employee benefits -2,367-2,672-3,418-3,797-4,691-5,424-6,232 17% 24% 18% Business tax and surcharges -504-562 -786-1,234-1,418-1,759-2,061 35% 15% 19% Depreciation and amortization expenses -501-430 -449-444 -469-497 -526-4% 6% 6% Impairment losses on assets -496-536 -4,601-6,153-4,463-6,061-3,327 132% -27% -19% Interest expense -1,371-1,909-3,698-7,804-12,359-16,757-20,143 79% 58% 37% Other expenses -1,742-1,930-2,267-2,560-3,282-3,917-4,500 14% 28% 21% Total expenses -14,803-16,027-23,200-30,601-35,687-45,140-49,455 27% 17% 17% Profit before tax 9,955 9,058 9,596 11,772 16,367 22,484 30,922 6% 39% 38% PBT from segmental breakdown DAM 7,465 7,202 6,234 8,314 12,193 17,660 25,401 4% 47% 45% FIAM 2,333 2,488 3,285 3,012 2,745 2,922 3,230 9% -9% 2% FS 180-207 164 498 1,429 1,902 2,291 40% 187% 66% Profit for the year 7,502 6,786 7,217 9,101 12,111 16,638 22,882 7% 33% 36% Total assets for the group 150,701 173,124 254,614 383,785 510,706 598,818 685,059 37% 33% 21% Shareholders' equity (incl. minorities) 42,502 42,843 60,885 82,762 93,554 105,358 121,592 25% 13% 14% Shareholders' equity 37,025 37,813 54,774 75,998 84,863 97,061 113,857 27% 12% 14% Revenue per share 0.96 0.97 1.07 1.20 1.47 1.91 2.27 7% 23% 24% BVPS (Rmb) * 1.69 1.50 1.82 2.14 2.46 2.80 3.28 8% 15% 15% EPS (Rmb) 0.32 0.27 0.25 0.30 0.34 0.47 0.64-2% 14% 29% DPS (Rmb) - 0.07 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.17 n.m. 13% 29% Net profit - ROA 5.0 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.6 Net profit - ROE (on equity net of minorities) 20.3 18.1 15.6 13.9 15.1 18.3 21.7 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Valuation: lifting TP to HK$5.8 We revise up Cinda's target price from HK$5.5 to HK$5.8, due to slight earnings revision and a higher target P/B for its FS division. Our TP is based on 1.7x 2015E P/B, valuing its DAM/FIAM/FS divisions at 2.3x/0.6x/1.1x. Figure 11: We value Cinda at HK$5.8 2015E Avg ROA Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 2015E gearing Norm ROE COE Growth rate P/B multiple Equity Value (Rmb mn) DAM 3.7 6.7 25.1 14.0 6.0 2.4 56,647 135,557 FIAM 2.4 3.6 8.8 12.5 5.0 0.5 26,600 13,502 FS 1.5 9.1 13.7 12.5 3.0 1.1 13,814 15,556 Total 3.0 6.2 18.5 12.5 1.70 97,061 164,615 TP (HK$) 5.78 Implied 2015E PE 9.7x China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 6

Companies Mentioned (Price as of 09-Jan-2015) Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK, HK$4.03) Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SS, Rmb6.09) Anyuan Coal (600397.SS, Rmb5.52) Bank of China Ltd (3988.HK, HK$4.44) Bank of Communications (601328.SS, Rmb6.5) C.G.G.C (600068.SS, Rmb8.96) CHIC (601608.SS, Rmb6.91) CS&S (600536.SS, Rmb37.47) China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK, HK$3.87, OUTPERFORM, TP HK$5.78) China Construction Bank (0939.HK, HK$6.45) Dayou Ener (600403.SS, Rmb6.45) Erzhong Heavy (601268.SS, Rmb2.35) Fawer (200030.SZ, HK$6.25) Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK, HK$5.73) Inspur Software (600756.SS, Rmb22.54) JZEG (000937.SZ, Rmb8.58) KL Energy Chem (600997.SS, Rmb7.36) Lianyungang Port (601008.SS, Rmb8.12) PJRC (600395.SS, Rmb12.31) Qinghai Potash (000792.SZ, Rmb23.2) Qingshan Paper (600103.SS, Rmb3.66) YYTH (600096.SS, Rmb12.74) Yangmei Chem (600691.SS, Rmb6.03) Yunnan Copper (000878.SZ, Rmb14.8) Zhengzhou Pwr (600121.SS, Rmb5.9) Important Global Disclosures Disclosure Appendix I, Victor Wang, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. 3-Year Price and Rating History for China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK) 1359.HK Closing Price Target Price Date (HK$) (HK$) Rating 16-Jan-14 5.05 6.14 O * 28-Aug-14 3.92 5.50 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. O U T PERFO RM The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities As of December 10, 2012 Analysts stock rating are defined as follows: Outperform (O) : The stock s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) : The stock s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) : The stock s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock s total return relative to the ana lyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ra tings are based on a stock s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms represen ting the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin American and non-japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock s total return potential within an analyst s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12 -month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10- China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 7

15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on a stock s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark. Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances. Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward. Analysts sector weightings are distinct from analysts stock ratings and are based on the analyst s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group s historic fundamentals and/or valuation: Overweight : The analyst s expectation for the sector s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months. Market Weight : The analyst s expectation for the sector s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months. Underweight : The analyst s expectation for the sector s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months. *An analyst s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cov er multiple sectors. Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is: Global Ratings Distribution Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%) Outperform/Buy* 46% (54% banking clients) Neutral/Hold* 38% (50% banking clients) Underperform/Sell* 14% (43% banking clients) Restricted 2% *For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closel y correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdin gs, and other individual factors. Credit Suisse s policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein. Credit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer to Credit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research-andanalytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.html Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties. Price Target: (12 months) for China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK) Method: We assign a SOTP (sum of the parts)-based target price of HK$5.8 to China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. Given Cinda's business model has inherent ability to neutralize macro volatility, Our TP is based on 1.7x 2015E P/B, valuing its DAM/FIAM/FS divisions at 2.3x/0.6x/1.1x. Risk: Risks that could impede achievement of our HK$5.8 target price for China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd include: (1) exposure to equity, real estate and commodity markets, (2) impairment in its leasing/trust businesses and (3) over-paying for distressed assets. The key risk is that a sharp GDP/asset price decline could meaningfully impact Cinda's return of distressed assets and the value of its assets/property inventory. Please refer to the firm's disclosure website at https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the target price method and risk sections. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names The subject company (1359.HK) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (1359.HK) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company (1359.HK) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (1359.HK) within the past 12 months Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (1359.HK) within the next 3 months. China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 8

Important Regional Disclosures Singapore recipients should contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report. The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (1359.HK) within the past 12 months Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares; SVS--Subordinate Voting Shares. Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Credit Suisse should be advised that this report may not contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report. For Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc.'s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of equity research, please visit http://www.csfb.com/legal_terms/canada_research_policy.shtml. Credit Suisse has acted as lead manager or syndicate member in a public offering of securities for the subject company (1359.HK) within the past 3 years. As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities that are the subject of this report. Principal is not guaranteed in the case of equities because equity prices are variable. Commission is the commission rate or the amount agreed with a customer when setting up an account or at any time after that. To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-u.s. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are important disclosures regarding any non-u.s. analyst contributors: The non-u.s. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. The non-u.s. research analysts listed below may not be associated persons of CSSU and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited... Victor Wang ; Steven Zhu For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at https://rave.creditsuisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 9

References in this report to Credit Suisse include all of the subsidiaries and affiliates of Credit Suisse operating under its investment banking division. For more information on our structure, please use the following link: https://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/this report may contain material that is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Credit Suisse AG or its affiliates ("CS") to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to CS. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of CS. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of CS or its affiliates. The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. CS may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. CS will not treat recipients of this report as its customers by virtue of their receiving this report. The investments and services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. CS does not advise on the tax consequences of investments and you are advised to contact an independent tax adviser. Please note in particular that the bases and levels of taxation may change. Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by CS to be reliable, but CS makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. CS accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to CS. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. CS may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those communications reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and CS is under no obligation to ensure that such other communications are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Some investments referred to in this report will be offered solely by a single entity and in the case of some investments solely by CS, or an associate of CS or CS may be the only market maker in such investments. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by CS and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Investors in securities such as ADR's, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. Some investments discussed in this report may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that investment is realised. Those losses may equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances, you may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make the investment may be used as part of that income yield. Some investments may not be readily realisable and it may be difficult to sell or realise those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed. This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of CS, CS has not reviewed any such site and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to CS's own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of any such website does not in any way form part of this document. Accessing such website or following such link through this report or CS's website shall be at your own risk. This report is issued and distributed in Europe (except Switzerland) by Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, England, which is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. This report is being distributed in Germany by Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited Niederlassung Frankfurt am Main regulated by the Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht ("BaFin"). This report is being distributed in the United States and Canada by Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC; in Switzerland by Credit Suisse AG; in Brazil by Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse (Brasil) S.A or its affiliates; in Mexico by Banco Credit Suisse (México), S.A. (transactions related to the securities mentioned in this report will only be effected in compliance with applicable regulation); in Japan by Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited, Financial Instruments Firm, Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 66, a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Japan Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association; elsewhere in Asia/ Pacific by whichever of the following is the appropriately authorised entity in the relevant jurisdiction: Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited, Credit Suisse Equities (Australia) Limited, Credit Suisse Securities (Thailand) Limited, regulated by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand, having registered address at 990 Abdulrahim Place, 27th Floor, Unit 2701, Rama IV Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500, Thailand, Tel. +66 2614 6000, Credit Suisse Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch, Credit Suisse Securities (India) Private Limited (CIN no. U67120MH1996PTC104392) regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (registration Nos. INB230970637; INF230970637; INB010970631; INF010970631), having registered address at 9th Floor, Ceejay House, Dr.A.B. Road, Worli, Mumbai - 18, India, T- +91-22 6777 3777, Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, Seoul Branch, Credit Suisse AG, Taipei Securities Branch, PT Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia, Credit Suisse Securities (Philippines ) Inc., and elsewhere in the world by the relevant authorised affiliate of the above. Research on Taiwanese securities produced by Credit Suisse AG, Taipei Securities Branch has been prepared by a registered Senior Business Person. Research provided to residents of Malaysia is authorised by the Head of Research for Credit Suisse Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, to whom they should direct any queries on +603 2723 2020. This report has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (each as defined under the Financial Advisers Regulations) only, and is also distributed by Credit Suisse AG, Singapore branch to overseas investors (as defined under the Financial Advisers Regulations). By virtue of your status as an institutional investor, accredited investor, expert investor or overseas investor, Credit Suisse AG, Singapore branch is exempted from complying with certain compliance requirements under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 of Singapore (the "FAA"), the Financial Advisers Regulations and the relevant Notices and Guidelines issued thereunder, in respect of any financial advisory service which Credit Suisse AG, Singapore branch may provide to you. This information is being distributed by Credit Suisse AG, Dubai Branch, duly licensed and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), and is directed at Professional Clients or Market Counterparties only, as defined by the DFSA. The financial products or financial services to which the information relates will only be made available to a client who meets the regulatory criteria to be a Professional Client or Market Counterparty only, as defined by the DFSA, and is not intended for any other person. This research may not conform to Canadian disclosure requirements. In jurisdictions where CS is not already registered or licensed to trade in securities, transactions will only be effected in accordance with applicable securities legislation, which will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and may require that the trade be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. Non-U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction should contact a CS entity in their local jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC in the U.S. Please note that this research was originally prepared and issued by CS for distribution to their market professional and institutional investor customers. Recipients who are not market professional or institutional investor customers of CS should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents. This research may relate to investments or services of a person outside of the UK or to other matters which are not authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority or in respect of which the protections of the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority for private customers and/or the UK compensation scheme may not be available, and further details as to where this may be the case are available upon request in respect of this report. CS may provide various services to US municipal entities or obligated persons ("municipalities"), including suggesting individual transactions or trades and entering into such transactions. Any services CS provides to municipalities are not viewed as "advice" within the meaning of Section 975 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. CS is providing any such services and related information solely on an arm's length basis and not as an advisor or fiduciary to the municipality. In connection with the provision of the any such services, there is no agreement, direct or indirect, between any municipality (including the officials, management, employees or agents thereof) and CS for CS to provide advice to the municipality. Municipalities should consult with their financial, accounting and legal advisors regarding any such services provided by CS. In addition, CS is not acting for direct or indirect compensation to solicit the municipality on behalf of an unaffiliated broker, dealer, municipal securities dealer, municipal advisor, or investment adviser for the purpose of obtaining or retaining an engagement by the municipality for or in connection with Municipal Financial Products, the issuance of municipal securities, or of an investment adviser to provide investment advisory services to or on behalf of the municipality. If this report is being distributed by a financial institution other than Credit Suisse AG, or its affiliates, that financial institution is solely responsible for distribution. Clients of that institution should contact that institution to effect a transaction in the securities mentioned in this report or require further information. This report does not constitute investment advice by Credit Suisse to the clients of the distributing financial institution, and neither Credit Suisse AG, its affiliates, and their respective officers, directors and employees accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from their use of this report or its content. Principal is not guaranteed. Commission is the commission rate or the amount agreed with a customer when setting up an account or at any time after that. Copyright 2015 CREDIT SUISSE AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on which investment principal can be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing in such instruments. When you purchase non-listed Japanese fixed income securities (Japanese government bonds, Japanese municipal bonds, Japanese government guaranteed bonds, Japanese corporate bonds) from CS as a seller, you will be requested to pay the purchase price only. BK1907 China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd (1359.HK / 1359 HK) 10