Australian Advertising Market Forecast Annual Update - 2013 2 nd September 2013 Venture Consulting 2013
TV and radio: the next media to feel the pressure of the rising digital tide In the past four years we have witnessed newspaper publishers, once the giants of media, falling to their knees. We believe that free-to-air (FTA) and radio are at risk of digital-driven structural changes over the next four years, with a significant adverse impact on their advertising revenue. So, the speed at which media consumption and advertising has shifted for newspapers should be alarming for these other traditional media segments. TV has been a very successful medium in terms of reaching a mass audience quickly. In contrast, online video only reaches relatively small audiences today, and therefore advertisers largely see it as a complement to TV advertising rather than as a direct substitute. However, as online video grows in scale and is able to reach a mass audience effectively, it will begin to compete directly with traditional TV, triggering brand advertisers, the pillar of FTA revenues, to migrate some funding to online video, at the expense of broadcasters. With few audio only alternatives available to advertisers, radio has held its revenue well in recent years despite losses in audience. However, in the coming years, radio will face a similar threat to the impending challenges for TV broadcasters the rise of new digital alternatives. Music streamers will continue to improve their product and grow their audience, enabling these new players to become a viable medium for larger advertisers. For example, these streamers are now striking deals with car manufacturers, which may lead to radio losing a significant proportion of listeners if they are displaced from the car. Advertising Market Forecast Exhibit 1: Australian Advertising Market Forecast 2012-2016 ($Million) Media Segment 2012A 2013E 2014F 2015F 2016F Free to Air 3,452 3,393 3,263 3,159 3,026 Pay TV 439 471 499 530 560 Radio 1,012 1,001 967 938 893 Newspapers 2,863 2,359 1,907 1,618 1,375 Magazine 653 523 414 347 292 Outdoor 503 516 526 542 562 Cinema 89 93 97 100 104 Online 3,343 3,928 4,572 5,361 6,251 Total 12,354 12,284 12,244 12,595 13,062 Source: 2012 actual advertising spend is based on CEASA report; 2013-16 forecast is based on AAFM
Exhibit 2: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) by Media Type 2008-2012 CAGR 2012-2016 CAGR 18.2% 16.9% 0.3% 8.5% 6.2% 1.0% 2.6% 2.8% 3.9% 0.5% 1.4% -3.2% -3.1% -2.0% -8.7% -10.8% -16.8% -18.2% Free to Air Pay TV Radio Newspapers Magazine Outdoor Cinema Online Total Source: 2008-2012 actual advertising spend is based on CEASA report; 2013-16 forecast is based on AAFM Exhibit 3: Share of Advertising Market by Media Type 27.9% 27.6% 26.6% 25.1% 23.2% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 8.2% 8.1% 7.9% 7.4% 6.8% 10.5% 12.8% 15.6% 23.2% 19.2% 2.8% 3.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 5.3% 4.2% 4.1% 47.9% 42.6% 37.3% 27.1% 32.0% 2.2% 4.3% Free to Air Pay TV Radio Newspapers Magazine Outdoor Cinema Online 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: 2012 actual advertising spend is based on CEASA report; 2013-16 forecast is based on AAFM Venture Consulting updates its Australian Advertising Forecast Model (AAFM) annually, based on macroeconomic factors, market cyclicality and structural change analysis. AAFM adopts a unique bottomup, analytical approach that incorporates multiple market sensitive drivers such as media consumption and substitutability. Our forecast of the 2012 advertising market outperformed other market forecasts by an average of 30%. 1 1 Based on comparison of accuracy of sector-by-sector growth against four other forecasts (from analysts/brokers and consultancies) produced at a similar time to Venture Consulting s 2012 advertising forecast.
Television While there has not yet been a noticeable displacement effect of online video advertising on free to air (FTA) TV, we believe the broadcasters are under threat in the medium term. TV has been a very successful medium in terms of reaching a mass audience quickly. In contrast, online video only reaches relatively small audiences today, and therefore the majority of advertisers (56% 2 ) see it as a complement to TV advertising rather than as a direct substitute. However, as online video grows in scale and is able to reach a mass audience effectively, it will begin to compete directly with traditional TV. FTA broadcasters have been heavily reliant on brand advertisers for revenues. However, with increased scale and improvement in behavioural targeting technologies, online video will become a cost effective alternative for brand advertisers. As a result, the rise of online video will begin to trigger brand advertisers, the pillar of FTA revenues, to migrate some funding to online video at the expense of broadcasters. We expect this effect to take hold within the next forecast period. To defend and grow revenues, FTA broadcasters need to invest in digital diversification. This means leveraging their core TV assets to extend franchises through digital, developing video-related verticals and examining media-for-equity investment opportunities. ProSiebenSat.1 (P7S1) in Europe, for example, began investing in online video, games, music, ecommerce and digital ventures in 2007. 3 As of second quarter 2013, P7S1 achieved 66% year on year revenue growth in digital with diversification constituting 18% of its total revenue. In contrast to FTA, the pay TV advertising market is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the next few years. In Australia advertising revenue constitutes just 12% of the total pay TV industry revenue much smaller than other markets (see Exhibit 4). Therefore, there is still significant potential for Pay TV advertising to grow further. In addition, we expect Foxtel to refresh its product strategy to drive pay TV penetration growth and reach audiences on new platforms, also supporting the advertising growth. Exhibit 4: Advertising Revenue as % of Total Pay TV Revenue vs Pay TV Penetration Advertising Revenue as % of Total Pay TV Revenue Pay TV Penetration 80% 79% 54% 45.9% 44.7% 34.9% 29% 11.8% US UK Canada Australia Source: PwC 2 Source: Adap.TV: 2013 State of the Video Industry 3 Detailed case study on ProSiebenSat.1: http://www.ventureconsulting.com/assets/digital-diversification-case-study.pdf
Radio Radio is facing continued audience decline, as audiences have shifted to substitutes such as music streaming services (e.g. Pandora, Spotify). This has particularly been the case for younger demographics. For example, in the Sydney market, we estimate that the percentage of audience aged between 10 and 39 has declined from 40% in 2010 to 35% in 2013. 4 Likewise, in the US, it is reported that the average time on radio has been falling fastest amongst young adults aged 25 34. Exhibit 5: US Weekly Time Spend on Radio (Minutes per Week) -3.3% -5.7% 859 831 900 849 2011 2012-5.4% 775 733 Radio Listener 12+ Men 25-34 Women 25-34 Source: Inside Radio, based on survey RADAR 113 and RADAR 109 As demographics have shifted, the impact of declining audience has not been uniform across stations. The market share of pop-music orientated Southern Cross Austereo's 2Day FM has dropped to 8% from its peak of 10%-11% in 2010; 5 radio stations such as Triple M have had to tweak their playlists to increase the playtime of older-skewing classic hits, to compensate for the drop-off of younger audiences. As traditional radio formats lose ground, talent based radio shows are becoming increasingly important in retaining listeners. Personalised streaming services will continue to improve their product. For example, these streamers are now striking deals with car manufacturers to give them access to the heartland for radio. In June 2013, Pandora reached 2.5m car activations globally, quadrupling since the same time last year. 6 Our concern is that radio stations may lose a significant proportion of their listeners over quite a short period if they are displaced from the car. Furthermore, as streaming services continue to gain scale, we expect the logical next step for these disruptors is to expand into local content streaming such as news. As these services continue to innovate their product offering, radio could see further cannibalisation of their audiences, thus have a significant adverse impact on radio, particularly those stations targeting a youth audience. With few audio only alternatives available to advertisers, radio has held its revenue well in recent years, despite losses in audience as shown in Exhibit 6. However, in the coming years, radio will face a similar threat to the impending challenges for TV broadcasters the rise of new digital alternatives. However, with the growth of personalised audio streaming services, we expect that these services will become viable alternatives for larger advertisers. Therefore, the radio usage trend and advertising trend will begin 4 Source: Venture analysis 5 Source: Nielsen Radio Survey 6 Source: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57590852-93/pandora-hits-2.5m-in-car-activations-quadruple-last-years-mark/
to converge in the near future. As such, the radio advertising share of total advertising market will gradually decline over time, with the growth of competing formats. Exhibit 6: Weekly Time Spend on Radio (Hours per Week) vs Share of Radio Ad Spend % of Ad Spend Share of radio ad spend as % of toal non-classified ad spend Hr / Week 15% No. of hour spend on radio per week 20 10% 5% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 15 10 5 0 Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, CEASA Print In the past 6 months, the print market has been turbulent. Fairfax has shifted its metro titles from broadsheet to tabloid and announced a broad cost reduction programme, whilst its competitor, News Corp., has announced a $1.4 billion write-down of its global publishing division. To make matters worse, decline in metro newspaper circulation is accelerating. Newspapers now not only contend with the continued digital migration, but also the switch to portable, current and often free news on mobile devices. According to a 2013 Nielsen survey in the US, more than 40% of respondents are now checking a national newspaper on a mobile phone daily. 7 With more competition than ever, the circulation decline is unlikely to slow down. Exhibit 7: Australian Metropolitan Newspaper Circulation 8.4 Metro Newspaper Average Net Paid Sales (Millions) Year on Year Growth of Average Net Paid Sales (%) 8.2 8.0 7.6-2.3% -3.0% -4.0% 7.1-7.3% Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations, AdNews Online We recognise that print advertising will experience continued decline over the next 4 years, but the story is two-fold. As digital classified platforms demonstrate greater effectiveness print classifieds, particularly 7 Source: http://paidcontent.org/2013/04/16/naa-study-shows-newspapers-readers-are-engaged-but-local-papers-need-to-do-moreon-mobile/
those targeting metro areas, will see a rapid decline as advertisers dollars shift to digital. Display advertising, on the other hand, will experience a relatively slower decline, in line with the shrinkage of readership and audience time. Exhibit 8: Classified Newspaper Advertising as Percentage of Total Newspaper Advertising 29% 29% 28% 27% 25% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: 2012 actual advertising spend is based on CEASA report; 2013-16 forecast is based on AAFM The demise of the print newspaper is no longer a question, but the question is how it will play out. As metro newspapers in print form approach the final stage of their life, we expect to see an interesting competitive dynamic forming between News and Fairfax. Our hypothesis is that the first party to close down their metro titles will see advertising dollars funnel across to its opponent which, in turn, would prolong the survival of competing titles. Hence, the competitive motive may drive the publishers to keep their metro newspapers on life support, even though doing so seems uneconomical. Online For online display advertising, a large portion of the growth will be driven by mobile and video advertising formats. Undeniably, mobile advertising is still nascent and needs to prove its effectiveness. Mobile advertising spend is currently lagging far behind time spent on consuming mobile media. However, as advertising delivery technology evolves ad effectiveness will improve dramatically, driving CPMs higher. Location-based advertising technology, for example, is suggested to have potential to improve ad effectiveness by up to 48% based on a study by Business Insider in mid-2013. Exhibit 9: Mobile Banner Click-Through-Rate Uplift vs Distance to the Advertised Business 40% 48% 26% 5% Less than 1 Mile 1 to 2 Miles 2 to 5 Miles 5-10 Miles Source: Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com.au/location-data-is-transforming-mobile-2013-77)
In Australia, mobile display advertising spend has surged over 200% year on year to $46m in 2012, representing 5% of total general display advertising. 8 We expect this proportion will continue to grow rapidly as mobile advertising develops its effectiveness and becomes better understood by advertisers. Video advertising will continue to enjoy strong growth as online video services grow in scale and begin to compete with TV advertising. The growth will also receive a boost from programmatic buying - a technology that enables ad planners to bid in real-time, to reach tightly defined audiences using a targeting platform. An Irish broadcaster, RTÉ, has begun selling its premium US and UK video inventory through its own private ad exchange, leading to 90% increase in monthly UK video ad revenue and near 100% sell-through rate. 9 In addition, trading programmatically has enabled RTÉ to develop new geographical markets without additional sales offices. Facebook is also expected to make an impact on the online video advertising landscape. Facebook is in the process of launching 15-second video ads that come with a frequency cap of one play per day. It is reported that the daily rate could grow to over $2 million per day in the US - roughly the equivalent of a Super Bowl spot. If the format proves to be successful, it will not be long before it rolls out in Australia. Online classifieds will soon reach a crossroads. Although online classifieds will continue to ride the wave of print-to-digital migration, the tailwinds will subside, as the majority of the classifieds dollars is expected to migrate out of print within the next 4 years. As a result, in the absence of further action the online classifieds growth will slow down and becomes more aligned to underlying sector activity. Outdoor Competition is heating up in the outdoor sector. With ooh!media s acquisition of Eye Corp, APN is now facing a much stronger competitor, particularly in metro billboard and airport space. Furthermore, with 50% of APN Outdoor (APNO) sold to Quadrant Private Equity earlier this year, there is more competitive tension from Adshel, which itself is a joint venture between APN and Clear Channel. This could lead to a growing price pressure in outdoor products in the short-term. Exhibit 10: Outdoor Advertising Market Share by Revenue Pre EYE acquisition Other small operators JC- Decaux Post EYE acquisition Other small operators JC- Decaux ooh! media EYE APN + Adshel ooh! media APN + Adshel 8 Source: IAB Online Advertising Expenditure Report December 2012 9 Source: http://www.videoadnews.com/2013/07/26/rte-selling-almost-100-of-vod-inventory-programmatically/
Looking forward, digital signage will continue to proliferate, enabling operators to display additional ads without the need to erect new billboards in premium locations. As of 2012, digital outdoor constitutes only 7.5% of total outdoor advertising spend in Australia. There is still a large growth potential for digital, based on our observation of international outdoor markets (Exhibit 11). Outdoor is taking a technology agnostic approach, placing NFC and Wi-Fi alongside each other, with QR codes as options for advertisers, but they have yet to prove themself as the game changer. Resilient to digital disruption by its nature, outdoor advertising is expected to maintain a steady growth over the next 4 years, contrasting declines for other traditional media. Exhibit 11: Digital Out-Of-Home Revenue as Percentage of Total Outdoor Revenue (2012) 7.5% 20.2% 32.4% Aus UK US Source: OMA, OAAA, PQ Media, Outdoor Media Centre Bottom Line In summary, we believe the following trends will become more evident in the next six months and should be observed closely: Print: acceleration of circulation decline; publishers losing classifieds at a faster pace than display Radio: change in demographics and shrinking usage; rise of competing streaming services Television: FTA loss of brand advertising dollars; bundling strategies to drive pay TV penetration Online: rise of mobile monetisation and programmatic buying; growth of classifieds to slow down Outdoor: heightened competitive pressure; rapid growth of digital outdoor advertising It is a time of great change in the Australian advertising market. The rise of competing digital formats and ongoing changes in audience behaviour continue to drive advertisers to new media at the expense of the old. The clock is ticking for traditional media companies; they need to rethink their growth strategy urgently, as structural change is happening faster than many may think. In another recent Thought Piece, Paywalls Alone are not a Panacea, we suggested that the newspaper industry needs a radical rethink of the business models they use to return to profitability. In the coming years it will become abundantly clear that similar advice applies to TV and Radio broadcasters too, as they need to carefully choose the right model to future-proof their businesses.
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