Ana Rodrigues, João Filipe, Fabíola Gil, Elisabete Martins and Tomaz Dentinho Universidade dos Açores João Raposo, Carlos Silva Instituto Superior Técnico Lívia Madureira - Universidade de Trás os Montes e Alto Douro ELECTRIC MOBILITY PARADIGM USER DEMAND ELECTRIC VEHICLE BUY SELL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM CHARGING NETWORK GRID
Outline: Timescale Q Method Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis Choice Experiment Charging Points Optimization Future Work
Timetable Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F B8 Tomaz Dentinho M4 B811Identify and analyze previous experiences of electric vehicles B812 Design of different attributes concerning electric vehicles B82 Cost Benefit and Multicriteria Analysis of EVs B821 Q Method B822 Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis B223 Choice Experiment B83 Design, Implementation and Adaptation of the Project EVs B831 Optimisation of the charging network B832 Policy Design Filipe Fernandes Filipe Fernandes Tomaz Dentinho Fabiola and Filipe Tomaz Dentinho Lívia and Ana and Nuno, Carlos, Tomaz. Carlos and João Nuno, Carlos, Tomaz B833 Implementation, Monitoring and Adjustemnt
Q Method Sites Cars General Public Urban centres 2% of small islands* Electrics Hibrids 4+1 seats 2 seats - 6 hours + 1 km + 5 km/h 1 15 29-1 km - 5 km/h 2 16 3 + 6 hours + 1 km + 5 km/h 3 17 31-1 km - 5 km/h 4 18 32 change b.. - 1 km - 5 km/h 5 19 33-6 hours + 1 km + 5 km/h 6 2 34-5 km/h 7 21 35 + 1 km + 5 km/h 8 22 36 + 6 hours + 5 km/h 9 23 37-1 km - 5 km/h 1 24 38 change b.. + 1 km + 5 km/h 11 25 39 + de 1 seats 12 26 4 5 seats 13 27 41 + than 1 seats 14 28 42 ------ ----- ---- --- -- - ~ + ++ +++ ++++ +++++ ++++++ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13
Q Method Factor 1 Private Companies: Factor 2 Academia, Factor 3 Public Entities, [13]: Hybrid, 5 seats, general public (zscore 1.54); [26]: Electric, over 1 seats, urban centres (z-score 1.828); [1]: Electric, 5 seats, large autonomy, high velocity, fast charging, general public (zscore 1.189). [29]: Electric, 5 seats, large autonomy, high velocity, fast charging, small islands with 2% penetration (z-score 1.66); [6]: Electric, 2 seats, large autonomy, high velocity, fast charging, general public (z-score 1.443). [26]: Electric, over 1 seats, urban centres (z-score 1.526); [1]: Electric, 5 seats, large autonomy, high velocity, fast charging, general public (zscore 1.98). [3]: Electric, 5 seats, large autonomy, high velocity, slow charging, general public (zscore 1.918); [28]: Hybrid, over 1 seats, urban centres (z-score 2.221); [14]: Hybrid, over 1 seats, general public (z-score 1.934); [42]: Hybrid, over 1 seats, small island with 2% penetration (z-score 1.799); [4]: Electric, over 1 seats, small island with 2% penetration (z-score 1.63). [1]: Electric, 5 seats, large autonomy, high velocity, fast charging, general public (zscore 1.189). [6]: Electric, 2 seats, large autonomy, high velocity, fast charging, general public (z-score 1.443). [4]: Electric, over 1 seats, small island with 2% penetration (z-score 1.63).
Gasoline Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis Private Investment Without Taxes with externalities Without Taxes Investimento Empresa Economia Carro Gazolina Carro Gazolina Carro Gazolina TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 1 1 1 5 5 5 1 1 1 km/ano 15 km/ano 15 km/ano 15 2 2 2 25 25 25 3 3 3 Hybrid Carro Híbrido Carro Híbrido Carro Híbrido TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 1-12 -12-12 -12-12 -12-12 1 4-13 -13-13 -13-13 -13 1-15 -15-15 -15-15 -15-15 5-12 -12-12 -12-12 -12-12 5-12 -12-12 -12-12 -12-12 5-14 -14-14 -14-14 -14-14 1-11 -11-11 -11-11 -11-11 1-12 -12-12 -12-12 -12-12 1-13 -13-13 -13-13 -13-13 km/ano 15-11 -11-11 -11-11 -11-11 km/ano 15-12 -12-12 -12-12 -12-12 km/ano 15-13 -13-13 -13-13 -13-13 2-1 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 2-11 -11-11 -11-11 -11-11 2-12 -12-12 -12-12 -12-12 25-1 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 25-11 -11-11 -11-11 -11-11 25-11 -11-11 -11-11 -11-11 3-1 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 3-11 -11-11 -11-11 -11-11 3-11 -11-11 -11-11 -11-11 EV 5 Carro Eléctrico (4 lugares) Carro Eléctrico (4 lugares) Carro Eléctrico (4 lugares) TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 1-7 -7-7 -7-7 -7-7 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1-6 -6-6 -6-6 -7-7 5-7 -7-7 -7-7 -7-7 5 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5-6 -6-6 -6-6 -6-7 1-6 -7-7 -7-7 -7-7 1 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 1-5 -5-5 -6-6 -6-7 km/ano 15-6 -6-6 -7-7 -7-7 km/ano 15 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 km/ano 15-4 -5-5 -5-6 -6-6 2-6 -6-6 -6-7 -7-7 2 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 2-3 -4-4 -5-5 -6-6 25-5 -6-6 -6-7 -7-7 25 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 25-3 -3-4 -4-5 -6-6 3-5 -5-6 -6-6 -7-7 3 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 3-2 -2-3 -4-5 -6-6 EV 2 Carro Eléctrico (2 lugares) Carro Eléctrico (2 lugares) Carro Eléctrico (2 lugares) TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 TIR 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 1-1 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5-1 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1-1 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 km/ano 15-1 -1-1 -1-1 km/ano 15 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 km/ano 15 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2-1 -1-1 -1 2 11 11 11 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 25 1-1 -1-1 25 12 11 11 11 1 1 1 25 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 3 1 1-1 -1-1 3 12 12 11 11 11 1 1 3 6 5 4 3 3 2 1
Choice Modeling Attributes selection and levels of the attributes selection; Table 1: Attributes and Attribute levels Attributes Attribute Levels Electric Car Basic car (Gasoline) Number of seats 2; 5 5 Purchase price 1; 2; 3;4 2 Operation & maintenance cost per 1 km 6; 9; 12; 15 15 Experimental design; Choice situation: comparing 2 EV with a basic car; Factorial Fractional to reduce the number of choice sets(36 choice sets - 6 blocks) Efficient Design
3 Choice Modeling Questionnaire Characterization of the residence, activity and mobility of the family members; Characterization of the mobility between residence and services for family members; Characterization of the family members vehicles; Mobility factors; Vehicle choice factors; Pathway Choice factors; Opinions related with transportation problems resolution. Azores Population Preliminary Survey: Sample: 6 Terceira Island Convenience random sample Azores Population Survey: Sample: 379 Eight Islands Convenience random sample Azorean Islands TOTAL Graciosa 14 Flores 12 Santa Maria 16 São Jorge 27 São Miguel 192 Faial 25 Pico 12 Terceira 81 Total 379
A Electric car A Electric car B Gasoline car Number of seats 5 2 5 Purchase Price 3 2 2 Operation and Maintenance Costs per 1 km Choice Experiment options 6 15 15 B Electric car A Electric car B Gasoline car Number of seats 2 2 5 Purchase Price 2 3 2 Operation and Maintenance Costs per 1 km 12 15 15
Table 2: Estimates from Multinomial Logit (MNL) Model Variables Coefficient Purchase price -,68E-4 *** Operation & maintenance cost per 1 km -,11 *** Number of seats,3 *** Electric Car,57 Interaction Electric car x Household income,118e-5 Interaction Electric car x Age -,518 *** Interaction Electric car x Very concerned with climatic change,332 ** Interaction Electric car x Higher Education,93 *** Interaction with gender -,728 *** Log Likelihood -32,578 Number of observations 343 Significance level *** - p <,1 ** - p <,1
ELECTRIC VEHICLES 4 Charging Network 1
ELECTRIC VEHICLES 4 Charging Network 1 1 2 2 3 2 1
ELECTRIC VEHICLES 4 Charging Network 1 1 2 1 3 5 6 5 3
Future Work Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F B8 Report of the First 9 Months Tomaz Dentinho M4 B811Identify and analyze previous experiences of electric vehicles Filipe Fernandes B812 Design of different attributes concerning electric vehicles B82 Cost Benefit and Multicriteria Analysis of Electric Cars B821 Q Method B822 Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis B223 Choice Experiment B83 Design, Implementation of EVs B831 Optimisation of the charging network B832 Policy Design B833 Implementation and Monitoring Filipe Fernandes Tomaz Dentinho Fabiola and Filipe Tomaz Dentinho Lívia and Ana and Elisabete Nuno, Carlos, Tomaz. Carlos Silva and João Raposo Nuno Domingues, Carlos Silva etomaz Dentinho Tomaz Dentinho e Fabíola Gil